Rodney J. Paul
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Goal of Research – Model Hockey Attendance
Examine factors which contribute to
more/fewer fans in the stadium
Like other sports – winning, weekday effects,
calendar effects, promotions, etc.
Unique to hockey (as a team sport) - Fighting
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Contentious Issue – Will start discussion here
Violent sport – allows fighting (5-minute
penalty)
Many groups oppose
Media makes a big issue out of element of
game
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2011 – Deaths of Young Players – recent NHL
Players
Derek Boogaard, Rick Rypien, Wade Belak
None directly attributable to on-ice fighting –
Each had depression/substance abuse issues
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Death of long-time NHL Enforcer
Bob Probert – heart attack at age 45
Study of his brain revealed:
Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy
Degenerative Disease – hits to head (Probert
also had bad concussion from car accident)
Had been previously identified in 1960s NHL
Fighter Reggie Fleming
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Vocal opposition to fighting from medical
community:
Dr. Kale (editor – Canadian Medical
Association Journal) – called for fighting ban
Dr. Tator (neurosurgeon) – cited clear evidence
of link of fighting to brain injuries
Dr. Cantu (neurosurgeon) – similar sentiments
Mass media opposition as well
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Dr. Echemendia (president of National
Academy of Neuropsychology) – no clear
evidence
Dr. Milzman (Georgetown) – his research
shows no relationship to any sort of injuries
from fighting in hockey
Canadian Icon Don Cherry (HNIC)
– key voice for keeping
fighting in hockey
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Player/Coach Rationale – self-policing
Players that use dangerous stickwork,
hard/illegal hits, etc. – can be deterred by
possibility of facing the other team’s enforcer
Enforcers protect the Stars of the game – fight
the opposing players who may target their
team’s key players
In short – may reduce overall violence, keep
stars on the ice
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Fans enjoy it!
Unique part of game fans enjoy:
History – Broad St. Bullies – Philadelphia
Flyers
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Fighters – key for many collectors
2012 Card Set from ITG (In The Game)
ENFORCERS
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Jones (1984), Jones, Ferguson, and
Stewart(1993), Jones, Stewart, and Sunderman
(1996) – studied violence in hockey
Paul (2003) – found positive effects of fighting
on attendance in both Canada and U.S. (NHL)
Coates, et al (2011) – differences in Germany
and Finland Hockey Leagues
Paul and Weinbach (2011) – no impact of
fighting in Quebec Major Junior Hockey
League
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1999-2000 Season study
Results of an increase in fighting of 0.1 per
game (1 additional fight per 10 games)
League
(subset)
Additional Fans
per 0.1 Increase
in Fights
Percentage
Increase in
Attendance
NHL
386
2.3%
US Teams
469
2.8%
Canadian Teams
313
1.9%
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Two current studies of 2010-11 Season
AHL – American Hockey League – top minorleague affiliate
ECHL – AA-level hockey (2nd tier)
For both leagues have full attendance and
game information in addition to game
promotions for each game and team
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Reduced-form Regression Model of Game Attendance
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Dependent Variable – Individual Game Attendance
(from box score)
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Independent Variables – Weekdays, Months, Win
Percentage, Fights per game, Scoring, promotional
dummies, fixed effects for population and income per
capita
Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation issues – correct
through Newey-West HAC-consistent standard errors
and co-variances
Variable:
Attendanc
e
Population
Income
Scoring
Fights
AHL –
Mean
5484.53
529265
24746
5.6463
0.9818
AHL –
Stdev
3815.44
760603
7409
0.7295
0.2305
ECHL–
Mean
4340.81
195871
32106
6.2254
0.8081
ECHLStdev
1786.90
166327
33579
0.7169
0.3325
Variable
AHL
ECHL
Intercept
-3733.94***
(-2.7679)
1733.958**
(2.1468)
Population
0.0008**
(2.2953)
0.0023***
(3.5678)
Income Per Capita
0.0655***
(5.1706)
-0.0058***
(-2.8244)
October
-1625.064***
(-4.8896)
-1133.050***
(-4.1088)
November
24.6350
(0.0498)
-200.9435
(-0.8152)
December
-55.3163
(-0.1312)
-167.3572
(-0.7147)
February
250.2919
(0.9765)
169.9919
(0.7449)
March
174.5925
(0.7775)
343.5377
(1.4664)
April
278.9014
(0.9399)
1961.465**
(2.3790)
Variable
AHL
ECHL
Sunday
1572.327***
(2.8590)
131.1328
(0.6628)
Monday
355.3681
(0.7843)
14.0909
(0.0293)
Tuesday
-421.0551
(-1.2986)
-804.8109***
(-2.7121)
Thursday
43.6774
(0.0794)
-361.0868
(-1.3211)
Friday
1424.889***
(4.6852)
867.5726***
(4.7817)
Saturday
2284.428***
(4.9204)
1482.079***
(7.3898)
Win Percentage
1295.275**
(2.3077)
1074.956***
(5.1980)
Goals Per Game
604.4212***
(2.7700)
55.9219
(0.4469)
Fights Per Game
1648.474***
(5.2493)
931.9411***
(3.1513)
Variable
AHL
ECHL
Home Opener
2130.148***
(3.7656)
1625.783***
(3.3539)
Merchandise
928.6454***
(3.1040)
710.1304***
(4.1153)
Food/Drink
489.1766*
(1.8122)
-342.3636
(-1.6159)
Beer
-127.1526
(-0.4594)
-500.8028*
(-1.8722)
Group Night
371.8688
(0.5805)
390.0506
(1.3965)
Family Night
-205.6968
(-0.3030)
-92.0971
(-0.3523)
Special Jersey
813.3340**
(2.1248)
1515.048***
(5.1438)
Teddy Bear Toss
-612.3055
(-0.9468)
334.3772
(0.6219)
Mascot Night
554.3413
(1.2529)
Variable
AHL
ECHL
Dogs to Rink
1621.550
(1.5728)
194.2629
(0.3812)
Fan Appreciation
1245.237**
(2.4579)
78.3996
(0.1237)
Theme Night
-20.8373
(-0.0739)
549.0199**
(2.5117)
Charity Night
82.8331
(0.1453)
-221.7944
(-0.8001)
Special Appearance
-178.9127
(-0.5544)
-2.6238
(-0.0087)
Concert/Event
4741.430***
(7.4619)
367.2151
(1.1065)
College Night
886.7474**
(2.1150)
1438.671
(1.2323)
Free Tickets
-661.3129**
(-2.2318)
1065.840***
(2.8902)
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Higher Populated Areas – Higher Attendance
Difference in Income per Capita – AHL –
normal; ECHL – inferior
Poor Early Season Attendance in each league
Weekend Effects
Some promotional success – home opener,
merchandise, special jerseys
Team Success = More Fans
More Fighting = More Fans
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Fans appear to enjoy fighting at hockey games
in both the AHL and ECHL
Key part of game – could lose fans if eliminate
No other close team-game substitutes
Average impact similar to NHL results:
League
(subset)
Additional Fans
per 0.1 Increase
in Fights
Percentage
Increase in
Attendance
AHL
165
3.00%
ECHL
93
2.14%