NASA's Carbon Cycle OSSE Initiative - Informing future spacebased observing strategies through advanced modeling and data assimilation L E S L E Y O T T 1 , P I E R S J . S E L L E R S 1 , D AV E S C H I M E L 2 , B E R R I E N M O O R E I I I 3 , C H R I S O ’ D E L L 4 , S . R A N D Y K AWA 1 , D AV I D B A K E R 4 , A B H I S H E K C H AT T E R J E E 1 , S E A N C R O W E L L 3 , S T E V E N PAW S O N 1 , A N D R E W S C H U H 4 , B R A D W E I R 1 1NASA 2JET GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER PROPULSION LABORATORY 3UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA 4COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY Motivation Despitesignificanttechnologicaladvances,limita4onsincurrentGHGobservingsatelliteshave preventedaccuratees4ma4onofregionalscalefluxes Incompleteseasonal coverageofmid-andhigh la5tudes Lackofobserva5onsover keytropicalecosystems Smallbutspa5allycoherent biasesremaina<erbias correc5on Motivation Findingnewwaystoobservedatasparseregionsandtoreducetheimpactofsystema4cerrors isakeypartofbuildingamorerobustcarbonobservingconstella4on The University of Oklahoma Proprietary Information NASA SMD AO Solicitation No.: NNH15ZDA011O-EVM2 Active SimulatedCoverageforAc5veMissioninJuly GeoCarb–Dailyobserva5onsovertheAmericas Motivation CurrentandPlanned CO2ObservingSatellites Understandinghowto integrateobserva4onsfrom mul4pleplaBormsinto advancedmodelinganddata assimila4onsystemswillbe especiallycri4caloverthe comingdecade Motivation • ObservingSystemSimula4onExperiments(OSSEs)playanimportantrolein assessingthevalueofnewcandidateobservingsystems • Alsoneededtotestandimproveinversemodelingsystems • However,mostOSSEeffortsarefocusedonjus4fyingasinglemissionand containsignificantweakness • Inconsistentassump4onsabouttheroleofrandom,systema4cerrors • Lackofinforma4onaboutdiurnalcloudvariability • Lackofcontextaboutvalueaddedincontextofexis4ng,plannedmissions NASA’s Carbon Cycle OSSE Initiative • ThelargestcarboncyclemodelinggroupsintheUS(NASAGSFC,JPL,University ofOklahoma,ColoradoStateUniversity)haveorganizedtoworkasagroupto addressthesedeficienciesandimproveOSSEcapabili4esinsupportofNASA • Fundingfor1yearofpreliminaryac4vi4esfocusedongenera4ngdataproducts tosupportconsistencyofCarbonCycleOSSEefforts • 50-km,7-yearGEOS-5CarbonNatureRun(includingCO,CO2,andCH4)simula4ng ~50tracersthatrepresentrealis4ccarboncycleperturba4ons • 1-yearprototypemul4-sensorcloudprobabilitydataset • Pseudo-datasetsforgenericpassiveandac4veLEOandpassiveGEOmissions createdbysamplingtheNatureRunusingadvancedinstrumentsimulatormodel • Alldatafreeandpubliclyavailable Reviewofcarbonarchitecture SlothBear Leadingtoquestions(sources,m Keyflux/process Diagnostic uncertainty region Growingfossil Megacities uncertainty Science Targets Based on JPL Carbon Architecture Workshop ABZand warming Mid-latitude carbonuptake Tropicalgrowth andlanduse SouthernOcean andclimate CH4from naturalvsfossil sources NHemispherehi Lats NHemisphere MidLats Tropicalland WSOCOLEO GEO Constellation ActiveSensor, polar,LEO Southernocean NHemisphere midLatsvs tropicalland Nature Run Tracer Example – Enhanced North American Sink GEOS-5simulatedXCO2averagedfromJuly1-7 SimulatedXCO2perturba4onresul4ngfrom0.2PgNASin Nature Run Tracer Example – Enhanced North American Sink • Pseudo-datasetscreatedbysamplingCarbonNatureRunfieldswithandwithoutfluxperturba4on • Assumesonlyrandomerrors • UsesMERRA-2cloudandaerosolsta4s4cs Averageof7daysofsimulatedpsuedo-data Nature Run Tracer Example – Enhanced North American Sink • Inaddi4ontosuppor4nginversemodelanalysesoffluxuncertaintyreduc4on,sta4s4calanalysisof pseudo-datacanbeusedtoassessabilityofdifferentsystemstoobservefluxperturba4on • Detectabilitybasedonmagnitudeofperturba4on,observa4onvariance,numberofobserva4ons within1-degreegridbox(e.g.O_etal.,2015) OnlygridcellswhereNorthAmericansinkenhancementisdetectableshown Multi-instrument clear-sky probability dataset • Assessingvalueaddedbydifferentobservingsystems o`endifficulttoassessduetolackofquality informa4onondiurnalvariabilityofclouds Cloud Free Land Samples / mo • InsupportofOSSEwork,wearecrea4ngaprototype dataproductthates4matestheprobabilityoffinding acloud-freescene. • CombinesdatafromMODISTerraandAquaforhigh spa4alcoveragewithaddi4onaldiurnalinforma4on fromISCCPdatabase • One-yearprototypedatasetwillbeprovidedat50kmresolu4onwiththecapabilitytorefineto10-km Ongoing and Planned Work • Workisongoingtoanalyzethenaturerunandincludemorerealis4csystema4cerrorsandcloud assump4onsininstrumentsimulatorstocreateXCO2psuedo-data • 2DXCO2pseudo-dataderivedfromtheGEOS-5NatureRunwillbepubliclyavailablefrom September2017ath_ps://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/insupportofinversionandsta4s4calanalyses • 1-yrprototypecloudprobabilitydataand3DatmosphericCO2concentra4ondatawillalsobe availabletosupportanalysesofalternateinstrumentconcepts • Proposedfutureworkwillinclude • Inversionbasedassessmentsofsingleandmul4-satelliteconstella4onconfigura4ons • 10-kmGEOS-5NatureRunwithselectedsubsetoftracers,focusonaerosol-inducederrors • Produc4onofmul4-yearcloudprobabilitydata • Examina4onoftheimpactofbiasreduc4ononfluxes4mates • Formoreinforma4on,[email protected] Thank you!
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