Temptations and Constraints
of Authoritarian Modernization in Russia
Vladimir Gel’man
(European University at St.Petersburg /
University of Helsinki)
Free University of Berlin, 31 January 2017
Authoritarian Modernization in Russia…
Authoritarian Modernization in Russia…
• “Authoritarian modernization” – a mode of achievement of socioeconomic progress (growth and development) under an
authoritarian regime;
• “Modernization” is understood here as a “narrow” elite-driven
technocratic project;
• Most of attempts of modernization in the distant past were
authoritarian, but recent “success stories” – South Korea (19721987); Chile under Pinochet: post-Mao China, etc. are relatively
rare;
• To what extent this project is feasible for present-day Russia and
“Why Russia is Not South Korea” (Guriev, Zhuravskaya, 2010)?
• Choices in favor of this project in Russia were made every time
since 1991
Authoritarian Modernization in Russia…
• Strong intellectual advocacy of “authoritarian modernization” from
debates of the 1960s (Huntington, 1968) to present day (Popov,
2014);
• Arguments – reducing risks of political instability and populist
policies as side effects of democratization;
• … but the evidence is mixed: “for every Lee Kwan Yew of Singapore,
there are many like Mobutu Sese Seku of the Congo” (Rodrick,
2010), great diversity among autocracies (Przeworski et al., 2000);
• Post-Communist Russia is neither Singapore, nor Congo: some
advancements of socio-economic developments in the 2000s, but
also many shortcomings and, finally, questioning if not denial of
“authoritarian modernization” project, especially after 2014
Authoritarian Modernization in Russia…
• Why the evidence of “authoritarian modernization” is so
mixed and uneven:
• (1) structure-induced legacies of the past – previous
trajectory of socio-economic development, quality of
bureaucracy and of the state;
• (2) agency-driven choices: varieties of authoritarian
regimes and institutions as well as of threats to their
survival;
• (3) agency-driven choices: ideas and perceptions of
political leaders and policy-makers, which drive their
policy choices
Authoritarian Modernization in Russia…
• … and what about Russia?
• (1) Structure-induced factors: relatively developed
country in terms of GDP/per capita, human
development, etc. – Russia was already “modernized”
well before post-Soviet period;
• But:
• Poor quality of bureaucracy and of the state, partly
inherited from the past and aggravated in post-Soviet
period – obstacles to the rule of law;
• Semi-peripheral position in the global economy and
relative international isolation (low linkages with the
West) – obstacles to global integration;
Authoritarian Modernization in Russia…
• (2) agency-driven choices - electoral authoritarian regime
as a consequence of failed democratization and flawed
economic reforms under Gorbachev and Yeltsin;
• Combination of worst elements of both democracy and
authoritarianism:
• Unavoidable defects of democracy - “political business
cycles”, “distributional coalitions”, “veto players” are in
place;
• Unavoidable defects of authoritarianism – lack of political
competition and accountability, intentional building of
inefficient institutions;
• Negative effects of rent-seeking and bad governance
skyrocketed
Authoritarian Modernization in Russia…
• (3) agency driven choices: ideas – relatively negligible role visà-vis interests in the post-Communist world (Hanson, 2010;
Hale, 2015);
• “good Soviet Union” as a normative ideal for current Russia’s
rulers (retrospectively oriented worldviews – a la “Making
Russia great again”)?
• Perceptions of existential threat from the West, focus on
information manipulations;
• 2014 - a major turn from agenda of economic development to
geopolitical agenda?
Authoritarian Modernization in Russia…
• “King’s dilemma” – economic development caused popular
demands for political changes (2011-12 protests in Russia);
• “Politician’s dilemma” (Geddes, 1994) – no way for fullfledged reforms of the state as a whole, only on a limited
scale (“pockets of efficiency”);
• Challenge of unfulfilled promises – ambitious plans, which
cannot be implemented properly because of insufficient
potential;
• … and the challenge of mediocrity (too high self-estimations,
too low performance)
Authoritarian Modernization in Russia…
• Controversies of post-Soviet authoritarian modernization
project:
• Ideas: “modernization” as a technological devise for
legitimation of political status quo (and ideas barely met
reality);
• Political and economic institutions – poor protection of
property rights, lack of the rule of law, special interests
rules;
• Policies – “insulation” of government not always led to
success stories: mixed record of policy-making;
• To what extent post-Soviet achievements (at least, until
2014) were made because of authoritarian modernization
project or despite to it?
Authoritarian Modernization in Russia…
• Some case studies of policy reforms in Russia in the 2000s and 2010s as
instances of authoritarian modernization project;
•
•
•
•
•
tax and budgetary reform – optimization of taxation system and tax rates
under the new Tax and Budget Codes (“success story”);
school education reform – implementation of the Unified State Exam and
failure of a number of other innovations (partial success and controversial
outcomes);
administrative reform – structural reorganization of government
apparatus and reform of civil service (total failure);
some other policies (pension, labour reforms, etc.) used as comparative
referents
Why outcomes are so diverse?
Authoritarian Modernization in Russia…
• Constrains to “authoritarian modernization” project are heavily dependent
upon political and institutional environment of policy reforms:
• Set of constrains:
• (1) nature of regime (electoral conditions, degree of repressions);
• (2) poor quality of the state (partially inherited from the past);
• (3) design and configuration of political institutions (issues of
accountability, and fragmentation of policy-making)
• “dual executive” model – low autonomy of government, no parliamentary
accountability, government as a team of managers hired by the president;
• aggravation of principal-agent problem in the wake of major reforms (the
politics of redundancy, direct encroachment of the president in key policy
directions);
• fragmentation of decision-making within the “power vertical”
Authoritarian Modernization in Russia…
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Russia in the 2000s – a major testing ground for authoritarian
modernization project:
high popularity of Putin and his initial commitment for policy reforms (at
least, during first term in office in 2000-2004);
rapid economic growth (6-8% annually till 2008 crisis);
the restoration of state capacity after the “roaring 1990s” and major
recentralization of governance;
BUT:
fragmented cabinets of ministers under Kasyanov (2000-04) and Fradkov
(2004-07);
reform program “Strategy-2010”, approved in 2000, was only partly
implemented, let alone “Strategy-2020” program
What went right and what went wrong?
Authoritarian Modernization in Russia…
•
“Success stories” are possible only if and when certain conditions met:
•
(1) policy reform as a top priority of a popular and capable political
leader;
(2) reformers are “insulated” from the influence of special interest groups
and able to coordinate directly with the head of the state;
(3) policy changes are adopted and implemented very quickly and
brought immediate positive effects;
•
•
•
If so, then “authoritarian modernization” could be successful on some
arenas despite major constrains;
•
… and this is why “success stories” are so rare
Authoritarian Modernization in Russia…
•
“Authoritarian modernization” project more often resulted a la Mobutu
rather than a la Lee Kwan Yew not only because of some personal
qualities and political preferences of the leaders;
•
it faces with major political and institutional constrains due to the
shortage of drivers of changes and high risks of dis-equilibrium;
at best, “authoritarian modernization” brought some partial and
temporary effects, in the worst case, it came in vain (see policy reforms
under Medvedev – legal reforms, reforming of police, etc.);
the current trends of regime and the state in Russia left almost no room
for “authoritarian modernization” project
•
•
•
What will be next?
Authoritarian Modernization in Russia…
•
Thanks for your feedback!
• ([email protected])