PROBLEM SOLVING AND DECISION MAKING
RICHARD TICKNER
MONDAY 17 NOVEMBER 2014
Objectives
By the end of the session, you will be able to:
 Define an Effective Decision Making Process
 Gather evidence and data to enhance decision making
 Developed techniques to identify problems and issues
before they arise and to deal with the unexpected
 Recognise risk and work within acceptable margins
 Develop your own decision making options based on
sound processes
Programme
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Objectives
Focus Questions
Framing
Decision Making Processes
Personal ‘Styles’ and Common Bias ‘Errors’
A bespoke process - The National Decision Model
Techniques for choosing a decision process, considering
stakeholders, exploring options and taking the decision
Developing your own Decision Making Processes
Action Plans
Pre-workshop Prep
What would you like to do with your problem solving skills
and why?
Bring along a situation/challenge that was complex and
where you have had to consult others
Focus Questions
What is the difference between problem solving and decisionmaking?
How do you currently make decisions and what are the
implications?
What do you need for future decision-making processes?
What are your particular challenges and what do you need?
What are the factors involved in your types of decision making?
Early Notes
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Main types of decision
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Programmed
Non-programmed
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Risk Aversion v Risk Calculation
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Status Quo – irrational preference for familiar options
Decision Making Processes
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The GROW Model
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Goal
Reality
Options
What action
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More Complex Decisions Involve…..
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Uncertainty – Many facts may not be known
Complexity – You have to consider many inter-related factors
High-Risk Consequences – The impact of the decision may be
significant
Alternatives – Each has its own set of uncertainties and
consequences
Interpersonal Issues – It may be difficult to predict how other
people will react
Six Steps to Effective Decision Making
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Create a constructive environment
Generate good alternatives
Explore these alternatives
Choose the best alternative
Check your decision
Communicate your decision, and take action
The Influence of Personal ‘Styles’
Fact, Logic, Task
Thrive on
action, risk and
change
‘Aggressive’
Louder
‘Tells’
Risk and
change
averse
‘Submissive’
Quieter
‘Asks’
People, Intuition, Emotion
Common ‘Bias’ Errors in Decision making
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Overconfidence
Anchoring
Confirmation
Availability
Representative
Escalation of Commitment
Randomness
Hindsight
Under-confidence
Avoidance
Deferring
The National Decision Model - ACPO
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Throughout – Values
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Consideration of Mission Statement and Values
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Stage 1 - Information
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Gather Information and Intelligence
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Stage 2 - Assessment
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Assess Threat and Risk and Develop a Working Strategy
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Stage 3 - Powers and Policy
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Consider Powers and Policy
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Stage 4 - Options
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Identify Options and Contingencies
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Stage 5 - Action and Review
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Take Action and Review what happened
Techniques
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Stakeholder Analysis Grid
Decision Making Grid
Six Hats – Situation Analysis
Six Hats - Edward DeBono
Developing Your Own Decision Making Process
In groups, use the six hats approach to developing a
decision making process relevant to your work
Action Plans, next steps and close