Signals for emerging Technologies
in Paper and Packaging Industry
•The International theretical and practical conference
•”THE XXXIX WEEK OF SCIENCE AND ACADEMIC RESEARCH AT SPBPU”
•Lecture by Professor Tuomo Kassi
The original paper under the same name
by M.Karvonen & T.Kässi published in internet,
publishing pending
13.7.2017
1
Themes of presentation
• 1) Introduce one special case of technological change
 concept of convergence
 the stage of convergence
• 2) Provide insights to the future competition between
paper/printing and electronics
 How technological competencies are evolving in convergent
environments
• 3) Using patent data in the industry analysis
13.7.2017
2
Using patent data in industry analysis
Advantages and
Opportunities
-
-
-
Include citations to previous patents and to the
scientific literature
 Possibility to
o study spill-overs
o evaluate the value of innovations
o evaluate the “originality” and “generality”
of innovations
Possibility (regardless of the challenges)
to integrate data with other complementary
information (financial data, alliance data etc.)
Highly detailed information on the invention
Homogenous measure of technological novelty
and available for long time series
Largely available stock of patents
Data contained in patents are supplied in
voluntarily basis
13.7.2017
3
Limitations and
Challenges
-
-
Not all innovation are patented
o not meet patentability criteria
o strategic decision to patent vs. other means
of approbriability
Inter-industry and inter-firm differencies in
the propensity to patent
Filing patents under different names (eg.
subsidiaries)
Differences across countries in economic costs
and benefits of patents
“Truncation“ problem (especially forward
citation data)
Types of convergence and evolutionary phases
Supply Side
Technological
Convergence
Substitutes
Complements
Knowledge
Technology-based
convergence
Technology
substitution
Technology
integration
Technology
Applicational
Product-based
convergence
Product
substitution
Product
complementary
Industry
Demand Side
Product
Convergence
13.7.2017
4
•Adapted Stieglitz, 2003; Hacklin, 2008
Types of convergence
Industries/Firms
(Supply)
Technology
Needs
(Demand)
Converging
Markets
Complementary
Convergence
”Cooperative
Paradigm”
dominating
13.7.2017
5
”Coopetitive
paradigm”
”Established vs.
Entrants”
Competitive
Convergence
”Substitutive
paradigm”
dominating
Examples of convergent developments (book ch.)
•Food industry
•Food, beverages, catering
•Life sciences
•Functional
•foods
•Telecom industry
•Messaging, radio, phones
•Camera technology
•Camera
•phones
•Pulp and paper industry
•Process engineering, chemicals,
•logistics
•Optics, precision, processing
•Information technology
•Intelligent
•packaging
•Paper/printing industry
•Mechanical engineering (R2R),
•material development, chemicals
•Medicals, drugs, biotechnology
•Electronic tagging, identification,
•item intelligence
•Electronics industry
•Printed
•intelligence
•Silicon electronics, display
•technologies
•Adapted Hacklin, 2008
Convergence process
AB
Industry
A
Industry
B
Before convergence
A
B
A
AB
B
Industry convergence
?
After convergence
13.7.2017
7
Phases of convergence
Scientific/knowledge convergence
Distinct scientific disciplines beginning
to cite each other and collaborate
Possible indicators:
Scientific articles;
Science dominated emergence
Technology convergence
Distance between applied science and
technology development decreases
Patent data and literature;
Technology dominated emergence
Market/applicational convergence
Application dominated emergence
New product-market combinations
General (business) media
Industry convergence
Market dominated emergence
Fusion of firms or industry segments
13.7.2017
8
•Curran & Leker, 2008
Patent classification, the IPC system
-
Hierarchical classification system of technologies
8 sections
120 classes
628 sub-classes
approximately 70000 subdivisions (main groups and
subgroups)
13.7.2017
9
Example of patent classification
G06K19/067; H05K3/38
“The present invention relates to a label to be attached to a surface, the label
comprising a transponder. The label comprises a non-adherent flap which contains the
transponder. The invention also relates to a web comprising a backing web and labels,
and to a system comprising a surface and a label...”
Section
G
Class Sub-class
06
K
Group
19/00
main group
19/067
sub-group
Section G
Physics
Class G06
Computing; calculating; counting
Sub-class G06K
Regognition of data; presentation of data; record carriers;
handling record carriers
Main group 19/00
Record carriers for use with machines and with at least a part designed to
carry digital markings
Sub-group 19/067
... with conductive marks, printed circuits or semiconductor circuit
elements, e.g. credit or identity cards
13.7.2017
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Patents and citations
Knowledge spillovers
Value of innovations
•
Patent
Patent
Patent
Citing
Patent
Cited
Patent
Patent
Patent
Patent
Time
Generation -1
Backward citations/
Citations made
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11
Generation 0
Generation +1
Forward citations/
Citations received
Citations and future competition
- Self-citations indicating  CAPABILITY
- Distinguishing within and cross-industry citations
- External citations within industry  COMPETITION
-External citations beyond (cross-industry)  DIVERSIFICATION
Selfcitations
Patents
Within
industry
Patents
Beyond
industry
Citing
”Backwards”
Cited
”Forwards”
Patents
Patents
Patents
Patents
Patents
Patents
Patents
Generation -1
Generation 0
Generation +1
Selfcitations
Within
industry
Beyond
industry
Citations and future competitive area
“Within industry”
“Beyond industry
border”
“Convergence beyond
industry border”
Backward
citations
Spill-over
within industry
Spill-over
from extra industry
Spill-over effects from
extra industry increases
Self-citation
Capability development
in own fields
Capability
diversification
Gradual capability
merging
External citation
Competition
Diversification
Diversification to
the new fields
Forward
citations
Value of within
industry inventions
Value of beyond
industry inventions
Value of technology
Self-citation
Core competence
Competence in
new fields
“Strategic duality”
External citation
Technology dominance
within industry
Technology dominance
in new fields
Value of within and beyond
industry technology
Data from PATSTAT
We analyzed the RFID value chain
Upstream Electronics Players-26
Vertically
Integrated
Paper and Printing Players-18
Electronics
Players-23
Downstream Software Players-17
13.7.2017
14
Empirical analysis: Descriptives
Industry /
IPC group
Paper & Printing
(N=18)
Upstream electronics
(N=26)
Vertically integrated
(N=23)
Downstream players
(N=17)
Patent count
1978-2006
77 963
124 184
218 560
43 518
TOP50 IPC
(%/all)
84.7%
87.6%
91.7%
98.0%
I Electrical
engineering
- Electronics & electrics (1,5,8)
- Computer & Communication
(2,3,4,6,7)
22.3%
80.8%
88.7%
95.8%
(7.2 %)
(15.1 %)
(46.1%)
(34.7%)
(24.3%)
(64.4%)
(2.2%)
(93.6%)
II Instruments
- Optics
- Measurement
- Control
16.5%
(13.4%)
(1.8%)
(1.2%)
16.2%
(4.7%)
(5.4%)
(5.4%)
6.9%
(3.3%)
(2.5%)
(1.1%)
3.3%
(0.4%)
(1.1%)
(1.8%)
III Chemistry
- Macromolecular chemistry,
polymers
- Basic material chemistry
- Surface technology, coating
18.5%
0.5%
1.6%
0.0%
(3.9%)
(2.8%)
(11.4%)
(0.5%)
(0.5%)
(0.8%)
-
41.4%
2.5%
2.9%
0.9%
(15.0%)
(20.7%)
(5.7%)
(0.8%)
(1.2%)
(0.4%)
(2.1%)
(0.4%)
(0.2%)
(0.4%)
-
IV Mechanical
engineering
- Handling
- Paper machines
- Other special machines
13.7.2017
15
Paper/printing patents distribution
Paper & Printing firms patents distribution 1978-2006 (N=18)
100 %
80 %
60 %
Electrical
engineering
Instruments
Chemistry
40 %
20 %
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
0%
13.7.2017
16
Mechanical
Engineering
Citations made (”backwards”)
Industry /
Paper &
Printing (N=18)
Upstream
electronics
(N=27)
Vertically
integrated
(N=24)
Downstream
players (N=18)
Citations
made
Citations (average)
42 743
212 010
381 655
66 768
0.55
1.71
1.75
1.53
TOP50 IPC
(%/all)
Self citations
76.9%
85.9%
85.3%
93.9%
4232
(9.9%)
70.4%
29.6%
38 511
(90.1%)
63.1%
36.9%
16006
(7.5%)
85.4%
14.6%
196 004
(92.5%)
82.7%
17.3%
48319
(12.7%)
89.8%
11.2%
333 336
(87.3%)
84.1%
15.9%
5736
(8.6%)
95.1%
4.9%
61 032
(91.4%)
90.7%
9.3%
IPC group
- Within industry
- Beyond industry
External citations
- Within industry
- Beyond industry
Cabability
diversication
13.7.2017
17
Knowledge
spill-over
diversication
Focused
research
Citations received -”forwards”
Industry /
IPC group
Patent count
(citations received)
Citations received
(average)
TOP50 IPC
(%/All)
Self-citation count
(%)
- Within industry
- Beyond industry
External citations
- Within industry
- Beyond industry
13.7.2017
New fields
Capability
development
18
Paper &
Printing
(N=18)
Upstream
electronics
(N=27)
Vertically
integrated
(N=24)
Downstream
players (N=18)
56,237
214,670
657,072
70,900
0.72
1.73
3.01
1.63
75.1%
84.1%
87.2%
95.3%
4,740
(8.4%)
21,530
(10.0%)
70,051
(10.7%)
7,704
(10.9%)
71.4%
29.6%
51,497
(91.6%)
59.0%
41.0%
86.0%
14.0%
193,140
(90.0%)
79.9%
20.1%
89.3%
10.7%
587,021
(89.3%)
84.6%
15.4%
95.8%
4.2%
63,196
(89.1%)
91.9%
8.1%
Traditional fields
capabilities
Market power
Paper & printing firms forward citations
Patent distribution, forward citations
100 %
80 %
60 %
40 %
20 %
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
0%
13.7.2017
19
Electrical
engineering
Instruments
Chemistry
Mechanical
engineering
Paper & printing self citations
PPI sef citations, forward
100 %
Other
80 %
Electrical eng.
60 %
Instruments
40 %
Chemistry
20 %
Mechanical eng.
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
0%
13.7.2017
20
Patents and citations of converging areas
Industry /
IPC group
Patents (IPC4)
1978–2006
Citations
made/patent
(average)
1978–2006
Citations received /
Self-citations (%)
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21
Computer technology
Paper & Printing
(N=18)
Upstream
electronics
(N=27)
Vertically
integrated
(N=24)
Downstream
players
(N=18)
15,314
44,196
175,965
55,915
18,958
21,720
82,857
8,099
Semiconductors
12,065
126,732
131,428
767
Optics
30,999
14,457
21,619
375
Computer technology
Self-citations (%)
0.37
(8.3%)
1.61
(8.6%)
1.18
(21.4%)
1.36
(5.6%)
Audio-visual tech.
Self-citations
0.62
(10.3%)
2.51
(5.4%)
1.82
(13.1%)
3.25
(1.6%)
Semiconductors
Self-citations (%)
0.59
(5.6%)
2.10
(9.5%)
1.83
(15.9%)
3.60
(1.3%)
Optics
Self-citations (%)
0.47
(16.0%)
2.19
(6.2%)
2.10
(9.8%)
3.33
(2.9%)
Computer technology
0.55
(5.2%)
1.73
(10.0%)
2.24
(14.8%)
1.41
(12.8%)
Audio-visual technology
0.86
(8.7%)
1.98
(7.7%)
3.05
(9.2%)
2.41
(5.1%)
Semiconductors
0.82
(4.0%)
1.89
(13.3%)
3.19
(11.9%)
5.99
(1.8%)
Optics
0.63
(10.3%)
1.88
(7.2%)
3.44
(5.9%)
3.39
(6.8%)
Audio-visual technology
Computer technology patents
100 %
80 %
Downstrea
m
60 %
Integrated
40 %
Upstream
20 %
paper &
printing
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
0%
Forward citations; computer technology
Computer technology, citations made
100 %
100 %
80 %
60 %
Downstream
80 %
Integrated
60 %
Downstream
Integrated
40 %
40 %
Upstream
Upstream
20 %
20 %
Paper & printing
Paper & printing
22
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
13.7.2017
19
78
0%
0%
Case: Paper/printing and electronics
Consolidation /
Vertical integration
Electronics
Industry
Value chain
convergence
Complementary /
Substitution effects
(# Technological
Convergence)
Paper
Industry
1978
13.7.2017
23
”Spill-over
effects”
- Value chain reconfiguration
- Incentives for collaboration
(alliances, joint ventures, mergers)
- Competence-enhancing
Value chain
deconstruction/
disintegration
Printed
Intelligence/
RFID
”Complementary
Convergence”
Complementary
effects
dominate
”Competitive
Convergence”
”Paper
Electronics”
- New players (offensive)
-Incentives for defensive vertical
and horisontal mergers
- Creative destruction and
business model collision
- Importance of complementary assets
(Electroninics industry)
- Horisontal integration
Substitution
effects
dominate
2000
Electronics
Industry
Paper
Industry
2008
2018
PATSTAT Central Database
•INPADOC
•legal status
•Classes
•Families
•- IPC classification symbol
•- National classification symbol
•Applicants /
•Inventors
•Prioritities
•- Identification of claimed priority
•- Identification of designating
• international application
•- Identification of parent application
•- Identification of technically
• related application
•Citations
••••-
•APPLICATION
•- Application Authority
•- Application number
•- Kind of application
•- Filling date of application
•- Type of intellectual
• property rights
•- Title of application
•- Abstract of application
Identification of cited patent publication
Cited non-patent literature text
Category of the citation
Origin of the citation
•- Applicant / Inventor name
•- Applicant / Inventor address
- Applicant / Inventor country code
•- DocDB standard name
•Publications
••••-
Publication
Publication
Publication
Publication
Authority
number
kind
date
Disscussion & Conclusions
•
Summary
– Assessment of overlapping technologies of distinct industries on the basis of patent data
– Exemplary results (citations made and received) demonstrate partial convergence between
paper/printing and electonics industries
– If monitoring can be achieved automatically from the patent data and without expert
knowledge, then should be interesting for also analysing other industry settings
•
Limitations
– Mostly evaluating technology development in ”converging environments”
– Difficulties to combine IPC citations analysis and market evolution directly
– Choice of database important
– Country and industry spesifics need to be taken account
•
Future views
– If independent firm and technology field analyses, search-term, could be conducted from
patent data, approach should be unique - at least to our knowledge
– Further testing of IPC-based analyses and possible proxies for convergence
– Analyses of other areas of potential convergence
Disscussion & Conclusions
Knowledge spillovers from electronics to paper & printing firms suggests that industries are
becoming more technologically convergent (backward citations)
-
Challenging to evaluate exact competitive consequences only based on patent data
– Paper & printing companies play a part in the competition (coopetition) with
electronics fields ( Complementary convergence)
– Will paper/printing players come tomorrows electronic giants?
– Business models collision in next 3-5 years?
– Mergers and aqcuisitions of giant electronics industry players?
-
Using patent and citation data in industry analysis
–  Possibility to get an idea of the stage and effects of convergence phenomenon
–  Recognising trends early important
–  Patent and citations analysis can help
13.7.2017
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