ACCESS POINT (more complex): 7.SP.M. Student will determine whether an event is
impossible, unlikely, likely, and certain.
Requirements:
 Every performance task must have at least five unique items.
 The five items must include five different probability situations.
 The set of five items must include at least:
o one item with an impossible event
o one item with an unlikely event
o one item with a likely event
o one item with a certain event
 In a multiple-choice item, a minimum of three answer choices must be provided.
Restrictions: None
Items/Questions
Teacher Direction: A bag of marbles contains ten red marbles. Lynn will choose one marble
from the bag without looking. What is the probability that Lynn will choose a red marble?
(Answer: certain)
a. unlikely
b. likely
c. certain
Teacher Directions: In a drawer you have 12 blue socks and 1 green socks. What is the
probability that you will pull out a blue sock? (answer: likely)
a. unlikely
b. likely
c. certain
Teacher Direction: You flip a coin 10 times. What is the probability of getting heads at least
once? (answer: likely)
a. unlikely
b. likely
c. certain
Teacher Direction: What is the probability that Lenny’s birthday is in a month starting with the
letter B? (answer: impossible)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
a. impossible
b. possible
c. certain
Teacher Direction: In a bag, there are 13 red marbles, 6 blue marbles, 2 green marbles and 11
black marbles. What is the probability of pulling a green marble out of the bag? (answer:
unlikely)
a. unlikely
b. likely
c. certain