Escola de Economia e Gestão The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy Fernando Alexandre, João Cerejeira and Miguel Portela (NIPE – Universidade do Minho) to Microsoft Portugal September 2013 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy Contents Sumário ................................................................................................................................................. 2 Summary............................................................................................................................................... 4 0. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 5 1. The Portuguese Economy: recent trends and prospects ............................................................ 6 1.1. Macroeconomic outlook .......................................................................................................... 6 1.2. From a low to a medium-high technology economy .......................................................... 8 1.3. Contribution of the IC&T sectors to GDP in the Portuguese Economy ........................... 9 1.4. Contribution of the IC&T sectors to employment in the Portuguese Economy ............ 10 1.5. IC&T Demand in the Portuguese Economy ....................................................................... 11 2. IC&T sectors, Software and Microsoft in the Portuguese economy ...................................... 14 2.1. Aggregate IC&T ...................................................................................................................... 14 2.2. Business and productivity software and licensing services ............................................. 16 3. Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy ................................................................... 20 3.1. Description and analysis of the Microsoft Ecosystem ....................................................... 20 3.2. Measuring the impact of the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem ....................................... 22 1 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy Sumário 1. O ecossistema da Microsoft em Portugal é composto por 3250 empresas e inclui todos os parceiros Microsoft localizados em Portugal. De forma a avaliar o seu impacto na economia portuguesa, a presente análise utilizou dados da rede de parceiros da Microsoft em Portugal, a informação disponível na base de dados internacional Amadeus 1 , bem como dados resultantes de um inquérito conduzido junto de uma amostra de empresas da rede de parceiros, e realizado entre março e julho de 2013. 2. Estima-se que em 2010 o valor do volume de vendas do ecossistema tenha rondado os 5383 milhões de euros, o que representou 26,2% das vendas do setor das Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação (TIC) na economia portuguesa. O contributo do ecossistema da Microsoft em Portugal para o PIB português foi de 1,42%. As empresas do ecossistema empregavam cerca de 45.000 trabalhadores, e pagaram 85 milhões de euros em impostos diretos (IRC). Tabela 1– O ecossistema da Microsoft em Portugal em números: estimação do ecossistema Total do ecossistema (2010) Total das TIC (2010) % Ecossistema nas TIC (2010) % Ecossistema nas TIC (2006) Contas Nacionais (2010) % Ecossistema nas Contas Nacionais (2010) Vendas (milhões €) 5383 (+26,5%) 20549 (+6,3%) Valor acrescentado (milhões €) 2156 (+41,8%) 5925 (1,1%) Empregados 45412 (+45,3%) 131682 (+32,7%) Impostos (milhões €) 85 (+99,2%) 26,2% 36,4% 34,5% 22,0% 25,9% 31,5% 151413 4350423 (IRC) 4592 1,42% 1,04% (IRC) 1,85% 3. Entre 2006 e 2010, o ecossistema da Microsoft em Portugal registou um aumento das vendas em 26,5%, do valor acrescentado em 41,8%, do emprego em 45,3%, e quase duplicou o valor dos impostos directos (+ 99,2%). Esta evolução é mais favorável do que a que se registou para o setor das TIC em Portugal para o mesmo período. Os valores comparáveis nas TIC ao nível das vendas, valor acrescentado e número de empregados foram de 6,3%, 1,1% e 32,7%, respetivamente. Trata-se de uma base de dados internacional com informação financeira harmonizada para as empresas públicas e privadas para a Europa disponibilizada pela empresa Bureau van Dijk - Company Information and Business Intelligence (amadeus.bvdinfo.com). 1 2 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy 4. De forma a avaliar qual a componente do negócio do ecossistema da Microsoft em Portugal que está diretamente relacionada com produtos, serviços e plataformas Microsoft, implementou-se um inquérito entre março e julho de 2013. Este inquérito visou a recolha de informação sobre a quota das vendas, valor acrescentado, emprego e impostos, diretamente relacionados com a Microsoft. As vendas associadas de forma direta à Microsoft representam 1280 milhões de euros, o que corresponde a 23,8% das vendas do ecossistema. O valor acrescentado gerado e directamente relacionado com a Microsoft foi de 600 milhões de euros. Já o número de empregados centrados nessas tecnologias foi de 12.000, enquanto o valor de impostos sobre lucros foi de quase 25 milhões de euros. Tabela 2 – Atividades do ecossistema da Microsoft em Portugal diretamente relacionadas com os produtos, serviços e plataformas da Microsoft Vendas (milhões de €) Valor Acrescentado (milhões de €) Empregados Impostos (milhões de €) 1280,073 582,328 11952 24,780 3 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy Summary 1. The Portuguese Microsoft Ecosystem includes all Microsoft partners located in Portugal and encompasses 3,250 firms. In order to evaluate the economic impact of that Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy, the analysis used data from the Microsoft Portugal partners network, the information available on Amadeus international database 2 and data from a survey conducted among those companies from March to July 2013. 2. In 2010, total sales of the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem is estimated to be about 5,383 million euros, representing 26.2% of total sales of the IC&T sector in the Portuguese economy. The contribution of this ecosystem to GDP is 1.42%. Firms belonging to the ecosystem employ more than 45,000 workers, and paid 85 million euros in direct taxes (IRC). Table 1– Microsoft Portugal Ecosystem in numbers: estimation of the ecosystem Total Ecosystem (2010) Total IC&T (2010) % Ecosystem in IC&T (2010) % Ecosystem in IC&T (2006) Sales (million €) 5,383 (+26.5%) 20,549 (+6.3%) 26.2% 22.0% National accounts (2010) % Ecosystem in National accounts (2010) Added value (million €) 2,156 (+41.8%) 5,925 (1.1%) 36.4% 25.9% Employees 45,412 (+45.3%) 131,682 (+32.7%) 34.5% 31.5% Taxes (million €) 85 (+99.2%) 151.413 4.350.423 (IRC) 4.592 1.42% 1.04% (IRC) 1.85% 3. Between 2006 and 2010, the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem grew sales by 26.5%, added value by 41.8%, employment by 45.3% and almost doubled tax contributions (+99.2%). The evolution is more favorable for the firms belonging to the ecosystem compared to the IC&T sector. The corresponding variation for the whole IC&T sector in sales, added value and employment is +6.3%, +1.1% and +32.7%, respectively. 4. In order to evaluate which part of the business of the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem was directly related to Microsoft’s products, services and platforms, a survey was carried out from March to July 2013. The survey intended to obtain information on the share of sales, added value, employees and taxes directly related to Microsoft. Microsoft-related sales represent about 1,280 million euros, 23.8% of the ecosystem’s total sales. Added value directly generated by Microsoft products and services is close to 600 million euros; the number of employees focused on those technologies is close to 12,000 and the amount of direct taxes generated is almost 25 million euros. Table 2 – Activities of the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem directly related to Microsoft products, services and platforms Sales (million €) Added value (million €) Employees Taxes (million €) 1,280.073 582.328 11,952 24.780 2 A database of comparable financial information for public and private companies across Europe which is provided by Bureau van Dijk Company information and business intelligence (amadeus.bvdinfo.com). 4 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy 0. Introduction This report evaluates the economic impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy. The Microsoft Ecosystem includes all partners located in Portugal and encompasses 3,250 firms. The international financial crisis, the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area and the overindebtedness of Portuguese Government, firms and households, has given way to the Economic and Financial Assistance Programme agreed with the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank in May 2011. The austerity measures imposed by the memorandum of understanding on the Government fiscal policy and credit constraints induced very pessimistic expectations of households and firms and, therefore, a strong contraction of domestic demand and a decrease in real GDP. Exports increased in communication, telecommunications and computer services, showing the structural change of the Portuguese economy towards a medium-high technology economy. Nevertheless, the contribution of the IC&T sectors to the total economy added value remains smaller than EU average. In order to evaluate the economic impact of the Portuguese Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy the following analysis used data from the Microsoft Portugal partners network, the information available on Amadeus international database 3 and data from a survey conducted those companies, which was carried out from March to July 2013. The survey intended to obtain information on the share of sales, added value, employees and taxes directly related to Microsoft In 2010, total sales of the Microsoft Portugal ecosystem is estimated to be about 5,400 million euros, representing 26.2% of total sales of the IC&T sector in the Portuguese economy. The contribution of this ecosystem to GDP is 1.42%. Firms belonging to the ecosystem employ more than 45,000 workers, and paid 85 million euros in IRC. Microsoft related sales within the ecosystem are 1,280 million euros, 23.8% of the ecosystem’s total sales. The added value4 is 582 million euros and related employment is 12,000. A database of comparable financial information for public and private companies across Europe which is provided by Bureau van Dijk - Company information and business intelligence (amadeus.bvdinfo.com). 4 Added value (contribution to GDP) = Taxation + Profit/Loss for period [=Net income] + Costs of employees + Depreciation & Amortization + Interest paid. 3 5 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy 1. The Portuguese Economy: recent trends and prospects 1.1. Macroeconomic outlook This section provides an overview of the recent and prospective behavior of the Portuguese economy, emphasizing its structural changes from a low to a medium-high technology economy. Portugal joined the European Union in 1986 and the euro in 1999. This period was characterized by a strong economic growth and a convergence to income levels of European Union’s richer members. In 2000, GDP per capita was over 70% of the EU and Portugal had gone through significant modernization and structural change, becoming a service-based economy. In 2009, services accounted for 74.4% and 62.4% of total gross added value and employment, respectively.5 After joining the euro area a stagnation period followed, which resulted in an increase in real GDP per capita of 2.2% between 2000 and 2010. The international financial crisis, the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area and the over-indebtedness of Portuguese households, firms and Government (their sum currently surpasses 300% of GDP) has given way to the Economic and Financial Assistance Programme agreed with the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank in May 2011. The austerity measures imposed by the memorandum of understanding on the Government fiscal policy, implied wage cuts and tax increases, inducing very pessimistic expectations of households and firms and, therefore, a strong contraction of domestic demand (over 7% in 2012) that was only partially compensated by an increase in exports (4% in 2012). In 2012, real GDP level was 5.5% lower than in 2007. In 2013 the GDP growth rate is predicted to be around -2% (in the first quarter of 2013 Statistics Portugal revealed a GDP decrease of 3.9%). Unemployment rate is expected to keep its upward trend in the near future and is now 17.7%. Households’ consumption (-5.5%) and business fixed investment spending (-14.4%) were the main contributors to the strong contraction of domestic demand in 2012. In what concerns private consumption, the reduction in the consumption of durable goods should be stressed (-18.7% in 2011), namely the acquisition of motor vehicles, caused by credit constraints and a deterioration of consumer confidence. The strong decline of business fixed investment spending in 2012 strengthened the trend observed in the last decade – its growth rate has been negative since 2008. 5 All data in this section is from Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE) – Statistics Portugal. 6 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy However, the strong reduction in the consumption of durables had a very positive effect on the reduction of imports (-6.9% in 2012). On the other hand, the export sector has had a very good performance (+4.1% in 2012). As a result of those changes, there was a very positive adjustment in the external imbalances, which resulted in a balanced current account and in a historical surplus in the trade balance. Figure 1 – Balance of trade (2012 prices) 70000 60000 50000 Million € 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 -10000 -20000 2006 2007 2008 2009 Surplus/Deficit Exports of goods Exports of services Imports of services 2010 2011 2012 Imports of goods Source: Banco de Portugal (Bank of Portugal). 7 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy 1.2. From a low to a medium-high technology economy The structural change of the Portuguese economy towards a medium-high technology economy can be assessed by foreign trade in technological services. Exports in communication, telecommunications and computer services increased 18% from 2010 to 2012 in real terms while imports decreased 6% in real terms. The Portuguese technological balance of payments, which accounts for all economic transactions concerning the transfer and trade of technology and related activities, observed its largest surplus in 2012, with 300 million Euros. Figure 2 – International trade selected services (2012 prices) 700 600 Million € 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Exports communication services Imports communication services Exports telecommunications services Imports telecommunications services Exports computer services Imports computer services 2012 Source: Banco de Portugal. 8 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy Figure 3 - Technological balance of payments (2012 prices) 1600 1400 1200 Million € 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 2006 2007 2008 Net 2009 Credit 2010 2011 2012 Debit Source: Banco de Portugal. 1.3. Contribution of the IC&T sectors to GDP in the Portuguese Economy This section analyses the weight of the Information, Communication and Technology (IC&T) sectors in the Portuguese economy, in terms of its contribution to GDP, using data from Eurostat. Data for the added value for services and manufacturing, in 2009, show that IC&T sectors contribute with 3.37% of total added value in services and with 0.11% of total added value in manufacturing – see Figure 4. These weights are similar to the ones observed in Spain, but are significantly lower than the ones observed in Germany and France. The contribution of IC&T sectors to the added value of United Kingdom services and manufacturing – 5.7% and 0.34%, respectively - is the highest in the group of countries considered. 9 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy Figure 4 - Percentage of the IC&T sector added value in added value of all branches, 2009 United Kingdom Spain Portugal France Germany 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 Germany France Portugal Spain United Kingdom Services 3.91 3.85 3.37 3.51 5.70 Manufacturing 0.39 0.27 0.17 0.11 0.34 Source: Eurostat, European Commission. 1.4. Contribution of the IC&T sectors to employment in the Portuguese Economy Data for employment shows that IC&T sectors represent 1.45% of total employment in the Portuguese economy – see Figure 5. This weight is slightly smaller than the one observed in Spain (1.94%) and in Germany (1.97%), but is significantly lower than the weight in total employment observed in France (2.6%) and in the United Kingdom (3.6%). The contribution of IC&T sectors to total employment is higher in services (1.28%) than in manufacturing (0.18%). 10 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy Figure 5 - Percentage of the IC&T personal on total employment, 2008-2009 United Kingdom Spain Portugal France Germany 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 Germany France Portugal Spain United Kingdom Services 1.94 2.27 1.28 1.93 3.06 Manufacturing 0.39 0.33 0.18 0.12 0.54 Source: Eurostat, European Commission. 1.5. IC&T Demand in the Portuguese Economy This section uses the percentage of households with internet access as an indicator of IC&T demand in the Portuguese economy. Figure 6 shows that, in 2012, the percentage of households with internet access increased from 31% in 2005 to 61%. This evolution represented a convergence to the internet access levels observed in the European Union. A survey by the European Commission suggests that the lack of skills is the main cause for the low levels of internet access. 11 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy Figure 6 - Percentage of households with internet access 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 EU - 27 48 49 55 60 66 70 73 76 Germany 62 67 71 75 79 82 83 85 Spain 36 39 45 51 54 59 64 68 41 55 62 69 74 76 80 61 France Portugal 31 35 40 46 48 54 58 United Kingdom 60 63 67 71 77 80 83 Source: Eurostat, European Commission. Data for broadband access show that more than 90% of firms have access to the internet. These results are similar to the ones observed in the European Union. Data for mobile connectivity show that Portuguese firms have lower rates of connectivity than European Union. 12 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy Table 1 - Broadband and Connectivity - All enterprises, without financial sector (10 persons employed or more) EU - 27 Germany Spain France Portugal United Kingdom Enterprises with broadband access (fixed or mobile) Enterprises with persons employed provided with a portable device with at least 3G technology for accessing the Internet Enterprises giving devices for a mobile connection to the Internet to more than 10% of their employees Provide to the persons employed portable devices that allow a mobile connection to the Internet 92 91 96 98 91 93 44 45 43 53 36 51 22 22 25 23 16 34 48 52 45 44 35 56 Source: Eurostat, European Commission. 13 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy 2. IC&T sectors, Software and Microsoft in the Portuguese economy In this section we use Amadeus database to analyse the evolution of the number of employees, sales and added value in IC&T sectors in the Portuguese economy between 2006 and 2011. We use the OECD classification of IC&T industries. 6 Then we focus the analysis in the sector ‘Business and Productivity Sofware and Licensing Services’ (5820), where the activities of ‘MSFT – Software para Microcomputadores, Lda.’ belong. 2.1. Aggregate IC&T Aggregate data for IC&T sectors show that, in 2010, the total number of employees and sales reached a maximum of approximately 132,000 and 21,000 million euros, respectively. In 2011, total sales and employment in IC&T sectors decreased by 23% and 14%, respectively. The added value reached a maximum of 6,400 million euros in 2008, and decreased steadily to 5,500 million euros in 2011 – that is, a reduction of about 14%. Figure 7 - Number of employees: IC&T 140000 131,682 120000 100000 99,196 118,033 119,404 2008 2009 114,037 105,934 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2006 2007 2010 2011 Source: Amadeus database. 6 OECD, 2009, Guide to measuring the information society 2009, Paris: http://www.oecd.org/science/sci-tech/43281062.pdf. 14 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy Figure 8 - Sales (Million €): IC&T 25000 20000 19,331 20,549 19,693 18,001 17,663 15,727 15000 10000 5000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Amadeus database. Figure 9 - Added value (Million €)7: IC&T 7000 6000 6,428 5,858 6,306 5,644 5,925 5,540 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Amadeus database. Added value = Taxation + Profit/Loss for period [=Net income] + Costs of employees + Depreciation & Amortization + Interest paid. 7 15 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy 2.2. Business and productivity software and licensing services8 Data for the ‘Business and Productivity Software and Licensing Services’ sector shows that employment, sales and added value achieved a maximum around 2009 and decreased markedly in 2010. The reduction in employment, sales and added value in 2010 was, respectively, 20%, 25% and 7% - see Figures 10, 11 and 12. These decreases are stronger than the ones that occurred at the IC&T sectors as a whole, inducing a reduction in the share of this specific sector. For example, the share of the ‘Business and Productivity Software and Licensing Services’ sector sales in total sales of IC&T sectors, between 2009 and 2010, was reduced by 36% - see Figure 14. For employment the decrease in its share was around 27% see Figure 13. Figure 10 - Number of employees: IC&T (582) 3000 2,423 2500 1,943 2000 1500 1,655 1,761 1,373 1000 500 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Amadeus database. Given that data for MSFT is not available for the year 2011, in this section the analysis concerns the period 20062010. 8 16 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy Figure 11 – Sales (Million €): IC&T (582) Sales: ICT (582) 250 234 235 203 200 150 176 127 100 50 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Amadeus database. Figure 12: Added value (Million €): IC&T (582) 120 96 100 93 81 86 80 61 60 40 20 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Amadeus database. 17 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy Figure 13 - Number of employees: share IC&T (582) in IC&T 2.5% 2.03% 2.0% 1.56% 1.5% 1.38% 1.49% 1.48% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Amadeus database. Figure 14 - Sales: share IC&T (582) in IC&T 1.33% 1.40% 1.13% 1.20% 1.19% 1.00% 0.80% 0.86% 0.66% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Amadeus database. 18 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy Figure 15 – Added value: share IC&T (582) in IC&T 1.60% 1.43% 1.49% 1.47% 1.45% 2008 2009 2010 1.40% 1.20% 1.04% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% 2006 2007 Source: Amadeus database. 19 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy 3. Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy According to the Microsoft Partner Network Guide: “The Microsoft Partner Network is designed for businesses whose primary function is to sell, service, support, or build solutions on the Microsoft platform, or to provide solutions based on Microsoft products and technologies to independent third-party customers. Qualifying businesses must sell more than 75 percent of their IT solutions and services to customers outside of their own company.” These partners form the Microsoft ecosystem, which includes very diverse companies with very diverse activities. Among others, the ecosystem comprehends companies that sell hardware – PCs, servers, etc. – running Microsoft software, software vendors; resellers; and services firms that install and manage Microsoft products. The Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem includes multinational firms, national level firms and very small local firms. In 2013, the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem encompasses 3,250 firms divided in six categories – see Table 2. Table 2 – Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem in numbers (2012): number of partners Partner type Distributors ISV (Independent software vendors) LAR OEM (Original equipment manufacturers) Resellers Services Total Number of companies 3 370 6 80 1.777 1.014 3.250 Source: Own computations. 3.1. Description and analysis of the Microsoft Ecosystem The following analysis is based on a sample of the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem. Table 3 presents the number of observations of the sample for the different variables and by type of partner. The maximum of observations concerns sales, which encompasses 1,316 firms. Data is collected from AMADEUS database. 20 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy Table 3 – Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem in numbers (2010): number of observations9 Partners Sales Distributors ISV LAR OEM Resellers Services Total 3 115 4 26 726 442 1316 Added value 3 84 3 22 488 318 918 Employees Taxes 3 113 4 26 707 433 1286 3 110 4 24 612 398 1151 Source: Own computations. Table 4 – Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem sample in numbers (2010) Partners Distributors ISV LAR OEM Resellers Services Total Sales (euros) Added value (euros) Employees Taxes (euros) 756,012,338 128,245,980 191,787,454 42,310,193 969,103,000 621,053,381 2,708,512,346 32,147,926 78,539,850 15,085,039 7,275,065 237,968,565 267,917,839 638,934,284 505 1,690 453 297 7,966 7,583 18,494 4,026,558 1,840,578 1,128,279 225,358 6,864,116 20,570,804 34,655,693 Source: Own computations and Amadeus database. Table 4 presents data for sales, added value, employees and taxes for the different type of partners for 2010. We use these data to estimate the size of the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem. Next, we present data for the geographical distribution of firms belonging to the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem, firms’ size, sales and capital nationality, for most recent data on AMADEUS database. Table 5 presents the geographical distribution of the firms belonging to the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem. As expected, more than 90% of the firms are based on the regions of Centro, Lisboa and Norte. 9 Number of companies identified in AMADEUS database. 21 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy Table 5 - Geographical distribution of the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem NUTs II Alentejo Algarve Centro Lisboa Norte Madeira Açores Firms Distribution (%) 54 3.59 32 2.13 289 19.23 592 39.39 486 32.34 27 1.80 23 1.53 Source: Own computations and Amadeus database. In Table 6 we present data for the distribution of firms according to the number of workers. The data show that 73% of the firms have less than 10 workers and that 5% have more than 50 workers. Table 6 - Firms’ size (per number of workers) Number of workers [1-10[ [10-50[ [50-250[ [250,…[ Firms 1047 308 62 11 % of Firms 73.32 21.57 4.34 0.77 Source: Own computations and Amadeus database. In what concerns sales, we have an average of 1,9 million euros, with a median value of 239,000 euros. 5% percent of the firms show sales bellow 18,000 euros, while 5% sell above 4,7 million euros (1% sell above 25 million). Finally, 50% of the firms sell between 92,000 and 700, 000 euros. In what concerns the nationality of firms’ ownership data show that 90% are controlled by Portuguese capital. 3.2. Measuring the impact of the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem The sample presented in the previous section was used to compute the values of the whole Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem. The estimated results for sales, added value, employees and taxes are presented in Table 7. 22 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy In 2010, total sales of the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem is estimated to be almost 5,400 million euros. These sales represent around represent 26.2% of total sales of the IC&T sectors of the Portuguese economy – see Figure 8 in section 2.1. In what concerns the weight of Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem in total employment of the IC&T sectors, the estimates suggest that it represents 34.5%. For the added value, estimated results show that the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem represents 36.4% of the IC&T sectors. According to these estimates, the contribution of the Microsoft Portugal ecosystem to GDP (at factor cost) is 1.42%. Direct taxes on profits paid by companies belonging to the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem are estimated to account for 1.85% of total corporate taxes. Table 7– Microsoft Portugal Ecosystem in numbers: estimation of the ecosystem (2010) Sales (euros) Added value (euros) Employees Taxes (euros) Distributor 756,012,338 32,147,926 505 4,026,558 ISV 412,617,501 345,949,339 5,534 6,191,035 LAR 287,681,181 30,170,078 680 1,692,419 OEM 130,185,209 26,454,782 914 751,193 Reseller 2,372,033,101 866,537,172 20,022 19,930,611 Services 1,424,769,521 854,304,053 17,758 52,409,033 Total 5,383,298,851 2,155,563,350 45,412 85,000,850 [3,867,475,598; 6,899,122,103] [1,290,117,725; 3,021,008,9759] [34,847; 55,977] [28,649,195; 141,352,504] 151.413.479.000 4.350.423 (IRC) 4.591.600.000 1.42% 1.04% (IRC) 1.85% Partners Confidence interval (confidence level 95%) National accounts Share National accounts Share IC&T (2010) 26.2% 36.4% 34.5% Share IC&T (2006) 22.0% 25.9% 31.5% Source: Own computations and Amadeus database. The share of Microsoft Ecosystem in IC&T sectors increased in all variables, from 2006 to 2010. For sales the share increased by 4.2 pp, for added value the increase was 10.5 pp and for employment the share of Microsoft Ecosystem increased by 3 pp. Table 8 shows the growth rates for the variables considered in this analysis and for different type of partners between 2006 and 2010. For the ecosystem as a whole we should stress the growth rates of taxes that have increased by almost 100%. Taking into account the 23 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy performance of the Portuguese economy in this period, added value and employees have also increased at a very strong pace with growth rates of 42% and 45%, respectively. In the period 2006-2010, the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem sales increased by 26.5%, which compares with a growth rate of sales for the IC&T sectors in the same period of about 6.3% - see section 2.1. Table 8 – Microsoft Portugal Ecosystem: variation 2006-2010 Partners Distributor ISV LAR OEM Reseller Services Total Sales Added value Employees Taxes +210,032,201 +38.5% +15,366,601 +91.6% +124 +32.5% +2,886,082 +253.1% +167,458,129 +68.3% +147,112,330 +74.0% +1,994 +56.3% +2,732,413 +79.0% +110,651,621 +62.5% +701,424 +2.4% +113 +19.8% +1,160,148 +218.0% +14,178,646 +12.2% +12,458,756 +89.0% +462 +102.0% +81,710 +12.2% +233,602,645 +10.9% +156,256,733 +22.0% +5,160 +34.7% -5,369,955 -21.2% +391,240,365 +37.9% +303,606,778 +55.1% +6,309 +55.1% +40,849,054 +353.4% +1,127,163,608 +26.5% +635,502,623 +41.8% +14,161 +45.3% +42,339,452 +99.2% Source: Own computations and Amadeus database. Table 9 – Estimates using survey data Distributor ISV LAR OEM Reseller Services Total Number % Microsoft (weighted average of by the square root answers of sales) 3 7.06% Sales (euros) Added value Employees (euros) Taxes (euros) 53,396,600 2,270,585 36 284,393 143,224,403 120,083,098 1,921 2,148,981 175,376,288 18,392,292 414 1,031,733 22,237,248 4,518,805 156 128,313 401,602,045 146,710,896 3,390 3,374,394 484,236,275 290,352,233 6,035 17,812,253 1,280,072,859 582,327,908 11,952 24,780,067 34.71% 24 [16.39%;53.04%] 60.96% 3 [51.87%;70.05%] 17.08% 11 [0%;35.18%] 16.93% 53 [9.46%;24.40%] 33.99% 47 141 [21.87%;46.11%] Source: Own computations and Amadeus database. Note: Confidence level at 95% in square brackets. 24 The Impact of the Microsoft Ecosystem in the Portuguese Economy In order to evaluate which part of the business of the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem was directly related to Microsoft’s products, services and platforms, a survey was carried out from March to July 2013. The survey intended to obtain information on the share of sales, added value, employees and taxes directly related to Microsoft. We got 141 valid answers by firms belonging to the Portuguese Microsoft ecosystem with data available in AMADEUS database and information on the share of Microsoft related revenues in products, services and platforms. Table 9 presents the results for sales, added value, employees and taxes given by the product of the share of Microsoft related revenues (weighted by the square root of sales within partner type) and the values for those variables presented in Table 7. Microsoft related sales represent about 23.8% (=1,280,072,859/5,383,298,851) of the ecosystem total sales. Added value directly generated by Microsoft products and services is close to 600 million euros; the number of employees is close to 12000 and the direct amount of taxes is almost 25 million euros. 25
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