Who framed roger rabbit?
OPEC agrees to trim production in an attempt
to control oil prices
“by just saying it had a
deal, OPEC managed to
keep the price of crude
from plummeting, which
was about to happen”
- Jim Cramer
28 September preliminary deal:
 Production cut 32,5 - 33 mln bpd
 Partial exemption for Iran, Nigeria and Lybia
 Russia ready to back the deal
OIL PRICES
RISE 5%
When it all started: the ‘shale revolution’…..
“Everything has changed with American
shale oil and gas coming on the market”
Claudio De Scalzi - CEO of ENI
… which pushed Saudi Arabia to an all out price war
Instead of cutting production, OPEC opted to pump at high
volumes to maintain market share…
… and US production shrunk by 12%
10.00
Apr ‘15 peak:
9,6 MMBD
Aug ‘16:
8,5 MMBD
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Conventional
Shale
Total
But large frackers evolved in survival of the fittest …..
… and are now the real winners from an OPEC cut
The move from $40 to $50 makes a big
difference:
 Chevron: from 1300 to 4000 profitable wells
 EOG Resources: production up 10-20% py
 Pioneer Natural Resources: rig fleet +40%
 10 more active U.S. rigs per week
Strong growth in Asia drives increases in oil demand
The fuel mix is set to change significantly
Primary energy shares In 2035 (vs 2014):






Oil 29%
Coal 25%
Natural Gas 26%
Hydro 7%
Nuclear 5%
Renewables 9%
(-4%)
(-5%)
(+2%)
(=)
(+1%)
(+6%)
Nuclear energy is projected to increase steadily, growing at
1.9% p.a.
Europe
-29%
North America
-13%
 ageing plants decommissioned
 few new investments
China +11,2%
 more than doubling by 2020
 increasing nine-fold by 2035
But the greatest surprise is the rise of renewables
Wind and solar are most prominent sources of renewable
energy today…
Onshore wind cost will fall 41% by 2040...
... and solar by 60%
…. but face challenges with regard to their intermittent
nature
Grids will get smart…..
 New design concepts and
smart materials
 Power electronic devices
 Energy storage
technologies
 More flexible transmission
and distribution systems
 Powerful monitoring and
control systems
… and energy storage will be a key factor
TRANSPORTATION
 Next-generation batteries, such as
rechargeable lithium sulphur batteries
 Fuel cells
GRID
 Flow batteries
 Molten salt batteries
 Compressed air storage
Graphene: the «miracle material»
that could revolutionize our World
 Lighter and more durable batteries
 Solar cells working in the rain
 Hydrogen clean storage
What is Graphene?
Graphene is a two dimensional layer of carbon atom
Its properties make this material special
STRONG
It is 200 times
stronger than
structural steel
DRIVER
It leads up to 1000
times better than
copper
FLEXIBLE
It can be flexed up to
20% without damage
APPLICATIONS IN:
energy
computer technology
medicine
building materials
BIDIMENSIONAL
Each layer
is one
atom thick
Sand may be the answer to storing solar energy:
meet STEM® technology
SUN
Heliostats
Sand
Steam
turbines
POWER
The future is uncertain…