STAT 211 Business Statistics I – Term 122 KING FAHD UNIVERSITY OF PETROLEUM & MINERALS DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS DHAHRAN, SAUDI ARABIA STAT 211: BUSINESS STATISTICS I Semester 122 Final Exam Thursday May 16, 2013 Allowed time 7:00 pm – 9:30 pm Please circle your instructor’s name: section number Adnan Jabbar Sec 1: (9:00 – 9:50) Musawar A. Malik Sec 3: (07:00 –07:50) Sec 2 : (10:00 – 10:50) [ Name: Student ID#: Serial #: Directions: 1) You must show all work to obtain full credit for questions on this exam. 2) DO NOT round your answers at each step. Round answers only if necessary at your final step to 4 decimal places. 3) You are allowed to use electronic calculators and other reasonable writing accessories that help write the exam. Try to define events, formulate problem and solve. 4) Do not keep your mobile with you during the exam, turn off your mobile and leave it aside. Q. No Marks Marks Obtained Q. No Marks Q1 10 Q11 5 Q2 12 Q12 4 Q3 7 Q13 3 Q4 3 Q14 8 Q5 4 Q15 10 Q6 3 Q16 5 Q7 3 Q17 3 Q8 3 Q18 7 Q9 5 Q10 5 Total 100 Marks Obtained 1 STAT 211 Business Statistics I – Term 122 2 1. (10 points). (i)The estimation of the population average family expenditure on food based on the sample average expenditure of 1,000 families is an example of (a) (b) (c) (d) Inferential statistics. Descriptive statistics. A parameter. A statistic. (ii) Which of the following is most likely a population as opposed to a sample? (a) Respondents to a newspaper survey. (b) The first 5 students completing an assignment. (c) Every third person to arrive at the bank. (d) Registered voters in a county. (iii) Most analysts focus on the cost of tuition as the way to measure the cost of a college education. But incidentals, such as textbook costs, are rarely considered. A researcher at Drummond University wishes to estimate the textbook costs of first-year students at Drummond. To do so, she monitored the textbook cost of 250 first-year students and found that their average textbook cost was $300 per semester. Identify the sample in the study. (a) (b) (c) (d) All Drummond University students. All college students. All first-year Drummond University students. The 250 students that were monitored. (iv) John was working on a project to look at global warming and accessed an Internet site where he captured average global surface temperatures from 1866. Which of the four methods of data collection was he using? (a) (b) (c) (d) Published sources. Experimentation. Surveying. Observation STAT 211 Business Statistics I – Term 122 3 (v) The chancellor of a major university was concerned about alcohol abuse on her campus and wanted to find out the proportion of students at her university who visited campus bars on the weekend before the final exam week. Her assistant took a random sample of 250 students and computed the portion of students in the sample who visited campus bars on the weekend before the final exam. The portion of all students at her university who visited campus bars on the weekend before the final exam week is an example of (a) (b) (c) (d) A categorical random variable. A discrete random variable. A continuous random variable. A parameter. (vi) True or False: The amount of coffee consumed by an individual in a day is an example of a discrete numerical variable. (vii) True or False: The answer to the question “How many hours on average do you spend watching TV every week?” is an example of a ratio scaled variable. (viii) True or False: Compiling the number of registered voters who turned out to vote for the primary in Iowa is an example of descriptive statistics. (ix) The Dean of Students conducted a survey on campus. Grade point average (GPA) is an example of a _____________________ numerical variable. (x) The Commissioner of Health in New York State wanted to study malpractice litigation in New York. A sample of 31 thousand medical records was drawn from a population of 2.7 million patients who were discharged during the year 1997. Using the information obtained from the sample to predict population characteristics with respect to malpractice litigation is an example of _____________________. STAT 211 Business Statistics I – Term 122 4 2. An European distribution company surveyed 53 of its mid-level managers. The survey obtained the ages of these managers, which later were organized into the frequency distribution shown. a. Determine the class midpoint, relative frequency, and cumulative frequency for these data. (6 points). b. Construct a frequency histogram and comment on the shape. (3 points). c. Calculate the approximate mean for this data. (3 points). Class Interval Frequency 20-under 25 8 25-under 30 6 30-under 35 5 35-under 40 12 40-under 45 15 45-under 50 7 Midpoint Relative frequency Cumulative frequency STAT 211 Business Statistics I – Term 122 5 3. The following data represent complaints about hotel rooms: Reason Number Room Dirty 32 Room not stocked 17 Room not ready 12 Room too noisy 10 Room needs maintenance 17 Room has too few beds 9 Room doesn’t have promised 7 features No special accommodations 2 (a) Construct a Pareto chart. (5 points). (b) What reasons for complaints do you think the hotel should focus on if it wants to reduce the number of complaints? Explain. (2 points). STAT 211 Business Statistics I – Term 122 6 4. A company has 140 employees, of which 30 are supervisors. Eighty of the employees are married, and 20% of the married employees are supervisors. If a company employee is randomly selected, what is the probability that the employee is married and is a supervisor? (3 points). 5. Suppose that of all individuals buying a certain personal computer, 60% include a word processing program in their purchase, 40% include a spreadsheet program, and 30% include both types of programs. Consider randomly selecting a purchaser and let A = (word processing program included) and B = (spreadsheet program included). a. Find the probability that a word processing program was included given that the selected individual included a spreadsheet program. (2 points). b. Find the probability that a spreadsheet program was included given that the selected individual included a word processing program. (2 points). 6. Five percent of all DVD players manufactured by a large electronics company are defective. A quality control inspector randomly selects three DVD players from the production line. What is the probability that exactly one of these three DVD players is defective? (3 points). STAT 211 Business Statistics I – Term 122 7 7. Brown Manufacturing makes auto parts that are sold to auto dealers. Last week the company shipped 25 auto parts to a dealer. Later, it found out that 5 of those parts were defective. By the time the company manager contacted the dealer, 4 auto parts from that shipment had already been sold. What is the probability that 3 of those 4 parts were good parts and 1 was defective? (3 points). 8. A washing machine in a Laundromat breaks down an average of three times per month, find the probability that during the next month this machine will have at most one breakdown. (3 points). 9. According to Sallie Mae surveys and Credit Bureau data, college students carried an average of $3173 credit card debt in 2008. Suppose the probability distribution of the current credit card debts for all college students has normal distribution with a mean of $3173 and the standard deviation of $800. What is the probability that a credit card debt for a randomly selected college student is between $2109 and $3605? (5 points). STAT 211 Business Statistics I – Term 122 8 10. According to an estimate, 45% of the people in the United States have at least one credit card. If a random sample of 30 persons is selected, what is the probability that at least 19 of them will have at least one credit card? (5 points). 11. According to Sallie Mae surveys and Credit Bureau data, college students carried an average of $3173 credit card debt in 2008. Suppose the probability distribution of the current credit card debts of college students in the United States is unknown but its mean is $3173 and the standard deviation is $750. What is the probability that the mean of the current credit card debts for a random sample of 400 U.S. college students is within $70 of the population mean? (5 points). 12. A major department store chain is interested in estimating the average amount its credit card customers spent on their first visit to the chain’s new store in the mall. Fifty credit card accounts were randomly sampled and analyzed with the following results: X $50.50 & s 2 400 . Construct a 95% confidence interval for the average amount its credit card customers spent on their first visit to the chain’s new store in the mall. (4 points). STAT 211 Business Statistics I – Term 122 9 13. A manager wishes to estimate a population mean using a 99% confidence interval estimate that has a margin of error of ±45.0. If the population standard deviation is thought to be 680, what is the required sample size? (3 points). 14. To become an actuary, it is necessary to pass a series of 10 exams, including the most important one, an exam in probability and statistics. An insurance company wants to estimate the mean score on this exam for actuarial students who have enrolled in a special study program. They take a sample of 8 actuarial students in this program and determine that their scores are: 2, 5, 8, 8, 7, 6, 5, and 7. This sample will be used to calculate a 90% confidence interval for the mean score for actuarial students in the special study program. a. What is the critical value used in constructing a 90% confidence interval. (1 point). b. What is the standard deviation of the data? (2 points). c. What is the standard error of the estimate? (1 point). d. What is the margin of error? (1 point). e. What is lower limit of the interval? (1 point). f. What is the range of the interval? (1 points). g. What assumption do you need to make about the population of interest to construct the interval. (1 points). STAT 211 Business Statistics I – Term 122 10 15. Two suppliers manufacture a plastic gear used in a laser printer. The impact strength of these gears measured in foot-pounds is an important characteristic. A random sample of 10 gears from supplier 1 results in mean = 290 and S.D = 12, while another random sample of 16 gears from the second supplier results in mean = 321 and S.D = 22. A. a. Calculate a 99% confidence interval for the difference in mean impact strength of gears from these two suppliers. Also interpret your result. (7 points). b. What assumptions are required to do part a. (3 points). 16. An economist is interested in studying the incomes of consumers in a particular region. The population standard deviation is known to be $1,000. A random sample of 50 individuals resulted in an average income of $15,000. What is the width of the 90% confidence interval? (5 points). STAT 211 Business Statistics I – Term 122 11 17. The head of a business department is interested in estimating the proportion of students entering the department who will choose the new marketing strategy option. A preliminary sample indicates that the proportion will be around 0.25. Therefore, what size sample should the department head take if she wants to be 95% confident that the estimate is within 0.10 of the true proportion? (3 points). 18. A corporation randomly selects 150 salespeople and finds that 66% who have never taken a selfimprovement course would like such a course. The firm did a similar study 10 years ago in which 60% of a random sample of 160 salespeople wanted a self-improvement course. The groups are assumed to be independent random samples. Let 1 and 2 represent the true proportion of workers who would like to attend a self-improvement course in the recent study and the past study, respectively. a. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of the difference in proportion of workers who would like to attend a self-improvement course in the recent study and the past study. (5 points). b. Write the assumptions needed to do part (a). (2 points). STAT 211 Business Statistics I – Term 122 12 The cumulative Standard Normal distribution Entry represented area under the cumulative standardized normal distribution from - ∞ to Z Cumulative Probabilities Z 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0012 0.0012 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0010 0.0010 0.0019 0.0018 0.0018 0.0017 0.0016 0.0016 0.0015 0.0015 0.0014 0.0014 0.0026 0.0025 0.0024 0.0023 0.0023 0.0022 0.0021 0.0021 0.0020 0.0019 0.0035 0.0034 0.0033 0.0032 0.0031 0.0030 0.0029 0.0028 0.0027 0.0026 0.0047 0.0045 0.0044 0.0043 0.0041 0.0040 0.0039 0.0038 0.0037 0.0036 0.0062 0.0060 0.0059 0.0057 0.0055 0.0054 0.0052 0.0051 0.0049 0.0048 0.0082 0.0080 0.0078 0.0075 0.0073 0.0071 0.0069 0.0068 0.0066 0.0064 0.0107 0.0104 0.0102 0.0099 0.0096 0.0094 0.0091 0.0089 0.0087 0.0084 0.0139 0.0136 0.0132 0.0129 0.0125 0.0122 0.0119 0.0116 0.0113 0.0110 0.0179 0.0174 0.0170 0.0166 0.0162 0.0158 0.0154 0.0150 0.0146 0.0143 0.0228 0.0222 0.0217 0.0212 0.0207 0.0202 0.0197 0.0192 0.0188 0.0183 0.0287 0.0281 0.0274 0.0268 0.0262 0.0256 0.0250 0.0244 0.0239 0.0233 0.0359 0.0351 0.0344 0.0336 0.0329 0.0322 0.0314 0.0307 0.0301 0.0294 0.0446 0.0436 0.0427 0.0418 0.0409 0.0401 0.0392 0.0384 0.0375 0.0367 0.0548 0.0537 0.0526 0.0516 0.0505 0.0495 0.0485 0.0475 0.0465 0.0455 0.0668 0.0655 0.0643 0.0630 0.0618 0.0606 0.0594 0.0582 0.0571 0.0559 0.0808 0.0793 0.0778 0.0764 0.0749 0.0735 0.0721 0.0708 0.0694 0.0681 0.0968 0.0951 0.0934 0.0918 0.0901 0.0885 0.0869 0.0853 0.0838 0.0823 0.1151 0.1131 0.1112 0.1093 0.1075 0.1056 0.1038 0.1020 0.1003 0.0985 0.1357 0.1335 0.1314 0.1292 0.1271 0.1251 0.1230 0.1210 0.1190 0.1170 0.1587 0.1562 0.1539 0.1515 0.1492 0.1469 0.1446 0.1423 0.1401 0.1379 0.1841 0.1814 0.1788 0.1762 0.1736 0.1711 0.1685 0.1660 0.1635 0.1611 0.2119 0.2090 0.2061 0.2033 0.2005 0.1977 0.1949 0.1922 0.1894 0.1867 0.2420 0.2389 0.2358 0.2327 0.2296 0.2266 0.2236 0.2206 0.2177 0.2148 0.2743 0.2709 0.2676 0.2643 0.2611 0.2578 0.2546 0.2514 0.2483 0.2451 0.3085 0.3050 0.3015 0.2981 0.2946 0.2912 0.2877 0.2843 0.2810 0.2776 0.3446 0.3409 0.3372 0.3336 0.3300 0.3264 0.3228 0.3192 0.3156 0.3121 0.3821 0.3783 0.3745 0.3707 0.3669 0.3632 0.3594 0.3557 0.3520 0.3483 0.4207 0.4168 0.4129 0.4090 0.4052 0.4013 0.3974 0.3936 0.3897 0.3859 0.4602 0.4562 0.4522 0.4483 0.4443 0.4404 0.4364 0.4325 0.4286 0.4247 0.5000 0.4960 0.4920 0.4880 0.4840 0.4801 0.4761 0.4721 0.4681 0.4641 STAT 211 Business Statistics I – Term 122 13 The cumulative Standard Normal distribution Entry represented area under the cumulative standardized normal distribution from - ∞ to Z Cumulative Probabilities Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.0 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.5359 0.1 0.5398 0.5438 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.5753 0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141 0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517 0.4 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879 0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224 0.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549 0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852 0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133 0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389 1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621 1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830 1.2 0.8849 0.8869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015 1.3 0.9032 0.9049 0.9066 0.9082 0.9099 0.9115 0.9131 0.9147 0.9162 0.9177 1.4 0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9251 0.9265 0.9279 0.9292 0.9306 0.9319 1.5 0.9332 0.9345 0.9357 0.9370 0.9382 0.9394 0.9406 0.9418 0.9429 0.9441 1.6 0.9452 0.9463 0.9474 0.9484 0.9495 0.9505 0.9515 0.9525 0.9535 0.9545 1.7 0.9554 0.9564 0.9573 0.9582 0.9591 0.9599 0.9608 0.9616 0.9625 0.9633 1.8 0.9641 0.9649 0.9656 0.9664 0.9671 0.9678 0.9686 0.9693 0.9699 0.9706 1.9 0.9713 0.9719 0.9726 0.9732 0.9738 0.9744 0.9750 0.9756 0.9761 0.9767 2.0 0.9772 0.9778 0.9783 0.9788 0.9793 0.9798 0.9803 0.9808 0.9812 0.9817 2.1 0.9821 0.9826 0.9830 0.9834 0.9838 0.9842 0.9846 0.9850 0.9854 0.9857 2.2 0.9861 0.9864 0.9868 0.9871 0.9875 0.9878 0.9881 0.9884 0.9887 0.9890 2.3 0.9893 0.9896 0.9898 0.9901 0.9904 0.9906 0.9909 0.9911 0.9913 0.9916 2.4 0.9918 0.9920 0.9922 0.9925 0.9927 0.9929 0.9931 0.9932 0.9934 0.9936 2.5 0.9938 0.9940 0.9941 0.9943 0.9945 0.9946 0.9948 0.9949 0.9951 0.9952 2.6 0.9953 0.9955 0.9956 0.9957 0.9959 0.9960 0.9961 0.9962 0.9963 0.9964 2.7 0.9965 0.9966 0.9967 0.9968 0.9969 0.9970 0.9971 0.9972 0.9973 0.9974 2.8 0.9974 0.9975 0.9976 0.9977 0.9977 0.9978 0.9979 0.9979 0.9980 0.9981 2.9 0.9981 0.9982 0.9982 0.9983 0.9984 0.9984 0.9985 0.9985 0.9986 0.9986 3.0 0.9987 0.9987 0.9987 0.9988 0.9988 0.9989 0.9989 0.9989 0.9990 0.9990 STAT 211 Business Statistics I – Term 122 14 For a particular number of degrees of freedom, entry represents the critical value of corresponding to a specified upper – tail area ( ) Cumulative Probabilities 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85 0.9 0.95 0.965 0.975 0.99 0.995 Upper Tail Areas d.f. 0.45 0.35 0.25 0.15 0.1 0.05 0.035 0.025 0.01 0.005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 0.1584 0.1421 0.1366 0.1338 0.1322 0.1311 0.1303 0.1297 0.1293 0.1289 0.1286 0.1283 0.1281 0.1280 0.1278 0.1277 0.1276 0.1274 0.1274 0.1273 0.1272 0.1271 0.1271 0.1270 0.1269 0.1269 0.1268 0.1268 0.1268 0.1267 0.1267 0.1266 0.1266 0.1265 0.1265 0.1264 0.1264 0.1264 0.1263 0.1263 0.1262 0.1261 0.1261 0.1260 0.5095 0.4447 0.4242 0.4142 0.4082 0.4043 0.4015 0.3995 0.3979 0.3966 0.3956 0.3947 0.3940 0.3933 0.3928 0.3923 0.3919 0.3915 0.3912 0.3909 0.3906 0.3904 0.3902 0.3900 0.3898 0.3896 0.3894 0.3893 0.3892 0.3890 0.3888 0.3886 0.3884 0.3882 0.3881 0.3880 0.3878 0.3877 0.3876 0.3875 0.3872 0.3869 0.3867 0.3866 1.0000 0.8165 0.7649 0.7407 0.7267 0.7176 0.7111 0.7064 0.7027 0.6998 0.6974 0.6955 0.6938 0.6924 0.6912 0.6901 0.6892 0.6884 0.6876 0.6870 0.6864 0.6858 0.6853 0.6848 0.6844 0.6840 0.6837 0.6834 0.6830 0.6828 0.6822 0.6818 0.6814 0.6810 0.6807 0.6804 0.6801 0.6799 0.6796 0.6794 0.6786 0.6780 0.6776 0.6772 1.9626 1.3862 1.2498 1.1896 1.1558 1.1342 1.1192 1.1081 1.0997 1.0931 1.0877 1.0832 1.0795 1.0763 1.0735 1.0711 1.0690 1.0672 1.0655 1.0640 1.0627 1.0614 1.0603 1.0593 1.0584 1.0575 1.0567 1.0560 1.0553 1.0547 1.0535 1.0525 1.0516 1.0508 1.0500 1.0494 1.0488 1.0483 1.0478 1.0473 1.0455 1.0442 1.0432 1.0424 3.0777 1.8856 1.6377 1.5332 1.4759 1.4398 1.4149 1.3968 1.3830 1.3722 1.3634 1.3562 1.3502 1.3450 1.3406 1.3368 1.3334 1.3304 1.3277 1.3253 1.3232 1.3212 1.3195 1.3178 1.3163 1.3150 1.3137 1.3125 1.3114 1.3104 1.3086 1.3070 1.3055 1.3042 1.3031 1.3020 1.3011 1.3002 1.2994 1.2987 1.2958 1.2938 1.2922 1.2910 6.3138 2.9200 2.3534 2.1318 2.0150 1.9432 1.8946 1.8595 1.8331 1.8125 1.7959 1.7823 1.7709 1.7613 1.7531 1.7459 1.7396 1.7341 1.7291 1.7247 1.7207 1.7171 1.7139 1.7109 1.7081 1.7056 1.7033 1.7011 1.6991 1.6973 1.6939 1.6909 1.6883 1.6860 1.6839 1.6820 1.6802 1.6787 1.6772 1.6759 1.6706 1.6669 1.6641 1.6620 9.0579 3.5782 2.7626 2.4559 2.2974 2.2011 2.1365 2.0902 2.0554 2.0283 2.0067 1.9889 1.9742 1.9617 1.9509 1.9417 1.9335 1.9264 1.9200 1.9143 1.9092 1.9045 1.9003 1.8965 1.8929 1.8897 1.8867 1.8839 1.8813 1.8789 1.8746 1.8708 1.8674 1.8644 1.8617 1.8593 1.8571 1.8551 1.8532 1.8516 1.8448 1.8401 1.8365 1.8337 12.7062 4.3027 3.1824 2.7764 2.5706 2.4469 2.3646 2.3060 2.2622 2.2281 2.2010 2.1788 2.1604 2.1448 2.1314 2.1199 2.1098 2.1009 2.0930 2.0860 2.0796 2.0739 2.0687 2.0639 2.0595 2.0555 2.0518 2.0484 2.0452 2.0423 2.0369 2.0322 2.0281 2.0244 2.0211 2.0181 2.0154 2.0129 2.0106 2.0086 2.0003 1.9944 1.9901 1.9867 31.8205 6.9646 4.5407 3.7469 3.3649 3.1427 2.9980 2.8965 2.8214 2.7638 2.7181 2.6810 2.6503 2.6245 2.6025 2.5835 2.5669 2.5524 2.5395 2.5280 2.5176 2.5083 2.4999 2.4922 2.4851 2.4786 2.4727 2.4671 2.4620 2.4573 2.4487 2.4411 2.4345 2.4286 2.4233 2.4185 2.4141 2.4102 2.4066 2.4033 2.3901 2.3808 2.3739 2.3685 63.6567 9.9248 5.8409 4.6041 4.0321 3.7074 3.4995 3.3554 3.2498 3.1693 3.1058 3.0545 3.0123 2.9768 2.9467 2.9208 2.8982 2.8784 2.8609 2.8453 2.8314 2.8188 2.8073 2.7969 2.7874 2.7787 2.7707 2.7633 2.7564 2.7500 2.7385 2.7284 2.7195 2.7116 2.7045 2.6981 2.6923 2.6870 2.6822 2.6778 2.6603 2.6479 2.6387 2.6316 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 60 70 80 90 STAT 211 Business Statistics I – Term 122 15 Some Useful Formulas S x x 2 n 1 x 2 n (x ) 2 n 1 P(A or B) = P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B) P(A ∩ B ' ) = P(A) – P(A ∩ B) P A | B P A B P B PB j | A P A k P A | B PB i P x n! x x ! n x ! for j 1,2,..., k P 0 x a 1 e a σ n (1 ) μ p , σp , n x zα/2 σ n μ x μ , σx x1 x 2 z /2 x1 x 2 t ,n1 n2 2 sp n x E X n , n 1 t x e t P x , t , t x! N A A N X X n x x C nx C x P x N N Cn n 1 if a x b f x b a , 0 otherwise s12 s22 n1 n 2 i 1 2 σ12 σ22 n1 n2 x1 x 2 z /2 PA | B j PB j e σ z /2 e p (1 p ) n 2 z (1 ) n /2 2 e P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B | A) = P(B) × P(A|B) PB j A , n 1 2 z 2 /2 σ 2 2 s n p z /2 , P B 0 a c d b P c X d (d c ) f (x ) n i 1 x t 2 1 1 , n1 n 2 where sp n1 1 s12 n 2 1 s22 n1 n 2 2 x1 x 2 t /2, v s12 s 2 2 , where n1 n 2 2 s12 s 2 2 n1 n 2 v 2 2 s12 s 2 2 n1 n 2 n1 1 n2 1 d t 2 , n 1 sd n p1 p2 z /2 where x p1 1 , n1 p2 x2 n2 p1 (1 p1 ) p 2 (1 p 2 ) n1 n2
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