Game Theory in the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election
Safa Kaleem
The 2012 United States Presidential election was extremely close. There
were so many factors going into the election of our next president that no one was
sure who would take home the title until the very end. There was even a decent
chance that the two candidates would tie with each other. However, many say that
the winner came down to minorities in the election. By virtues of the wants of each
minority group, no one party can cater to every demographic. However, we can
analyze the game theory employed by each candidate to determine who had the best
strategy, and whether it translates into reality.
President Obama was said to have put together a “historic coalition” of
demographic groups according to Professor John Zogby at Duke University, one
similar to the wildly successful one created by Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932. FDR’s
supporters spanned occupations, races, and over came geography. With his “new
deal” politics, he created a demographic that included all at once liberal leftists,
intellectuals, white unionists, African Americans, southern farmers, and even white
racists. This “New Deal Coalition” lasted until the 1970’s until Ronald Regan brought
in the next coalition. The demographic changed because of the new concerns over
spending. This newer generation was more conservative and the so-called “Regan
Democrats” also determined its success. President Obama turned the tables again in
2008 by bringing together new groups and a new generation of voters. Romney, by
his political party’s nature, focused on the majority of America, the white population
while also attempting to gain the support of evangelists. We can analyze the game
theory of this situation as follows.
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The percentages of the electorate that are composed from each minority
group are shown below:
Latinos
African
Americans
Young people
Creative Class
Muslims
Evangelicals
Asians
Women
White
Percent of Electorate
2008
2012
9%
10%
12.10%
30%
27%
1%
25%
2%
53%
74%
13%
39%
47%
1%
26%
2.50%
53%
72%
Percent for
Percent for Obama
Republican Candidate
2008
2012
2008
2012
67%
71%
31%
27%
95%
53%
53%
85%
34%
62%
46%
43%
93%
60%
60%
86%
21%
73%
55%
39%
4%
26%
45%
2%
65%
35%
53%
55%
6%
37%
42%
4%
78%
26%
44%
59%
All groups represented were mentioned in Professor Zogby’s talk. Obama
aimed to appeal to minority groups while Romney aimed for the white populace.
Which is more likely to yield the win? While it is true that whites make up most of
the electorate, and that Romney appealed to them more than Obama did, it does not
follow that Romney should win. After all, many white voters, like any other
demographic group, are undecided or not very strongly supportive of their
candidate. Zogby stated that the general American populace is shifting to a more
liberal perspective. What aspects of Romney’s campaign drove away his white
demographic? For one, women make up a large portion of the electorate – more
than men, in fact. Romney’s anti-abortion and anti-free-contraceptives stance drove
many women away. This in part accounts for the shift in female voters from 2008 to
2012. Another sub-group that Romney was lobbying to in particular was the
Evangelists. He appealed to their strong family ideals and Christian values. However,
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according to Zogby, one third of evangelists stated that they would never vote for a
Mormon president. Even so, Romney did show an increase over John McCain, but he
perhaps did not get as much support from them as he needed. By banking on only
demographic groups that were similar to him, he disillusioned many other voters.
The reality is that America, and the world, is getting more globalized every day, a
fact stated by Zogby as well. Romney did not appeal to the new generation of voters
because of his one-track policies. He often came off as in inflexible and conforming,
whereas President Obama sends the message that he is very willing to compromise.
Obama’s message of compromise is not all talk. He demonstrates it well by
showing his support to minorities. For a candidate to gain the support of the Latino
population, it is essential to make immigration easier for people from Mexico, Cuba,
and other places. He further proves his point through his “DREAM act,” which
settled very well with the American Latino community. The support of African
Americans came mostly through is relatability as well as his support of free health
care and social security. African Americans were more trusting of someone who had
similar experiences as themselves than Romney, who did not do well in relating to
this ethnic group. Though there was disappointment among the African American
community when unemployment rates increased to an all-time high, the way they
responded to polls suggested that they would vote for Obama or not vote at all. They
did not want to give Romney the support, even if they were against Obama. This
calls to mind the game theory of preferential voting. In an instant-run-off vote,
voters may vote in such a way as to severely oppose the disliked candidate rather
than help them at the expense of other candidates.
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Going off of Zogby’s point that the world is becoming more multicultural is
the notion that we need a leader who is fit to lead the next generation. Young people,
aged 18 to 29, are looking for such a leader. Obama is not old enough to be
considered a baby boomer, yet is young enough to be integrated in the new society
we have developed, according to Zogby. Because he is on the threshold, he appeals
to people who are older as well as younger. The involvement of young people in this
election has increased by 9% since 2004. This concept calls to mind the theory of
ecotones. Ecotones in environmental science are the borders between ecosystems.
The organisms living in these spaces learn to adapt to both environments they are
on the cusp of. Thus, these animals are able to survive in harsher conditions since
they can occupy multiple niches. Animals that live on ecotones are more likely to
pass on their genes to the next generation. This analogy is very apt to describe
President Obama’s position. Not only is he on an ecotone with respect to time, but
also with respect to race and his willingness to live between factions and
compromise.
The so-called “creative class” (coined by Zogby), is a self-proclaimed group of
professionals in their fields. This includes doctors, artists, lawyers, scientists and the
like. These people live on the cutting edge and are more willing to vote for a
president who supported them in their educations. This year, it was very uncertain
how they would vote. Many of them became disillusioned and did not vote at all.
However, Obama did invest in these people with his policies and his promise to
increase funding for education and to decrease defense spending. As the creative
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class is educated and takes it seriously, this appealed to them more than Romney’s
promise to do the opposite.
Romney, on the other hand, appeals to mostly the older, more conservative
generation in a time when flexibility in beliefs, not fixedness in the past, is valuable.
Republicans were once popular for the reasons they have now fallen into relative
disfavor with the younger generation, but as Zogby stated, every generation brings a
new coalition of democratic groups. This is not to say that Republicans cannot win
the next election, but it means that the general trend is leaning towards a more
globalized system.
Even though Romney chose one group on which to invest his time, and this
group had the largest percentage of voters, it was this same strategy that probably
played a large part in him losing the election. He put all his eggs in one basket, or so
to speak, whereas Obama distributed his resources and cleverly brought many
diverse groups together under one banner. Romney banked on the fact that the
group he spent the most time wooing would not let him down, but Obama’s divide
and conquer strategy worked better in this case. If we run the numbers using the
data in the table above, we have:
Ethnic Group
Latinos
African Americans
Muslims
Asians
White
Sum
Percent Electorate times
Percent for Obama
7.100%
12.090%
0.860%
1.825%
28.080%
49.955%
Percent Electorate times
Percent for Romney
2.700%
0.780%
0.040%
0.650%
42.480%
46.650%
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Just using this data, the results are very close. There is, of course, more data
to be considered, such as additional ethnic groups, but this model does show how
close the election was and illustrates how hard it was for pollsters to call the
election beforehand. Both strategies are sound, but in this case, Obama’s was
superior. Obama used his party’s platform and his “in-the-middle” position to win
over many kinds of people. Romney’s focus was by nature of his political platform
catered mostly to one group of people. We cannot, of course, attribute Obama’s
success and Romney’s failure solely to this, however. There were many other factors
involved besides ethnic groups. However, even as we are talking about ethnic
groups, we are also talking about the integration of cultures and races. Will the next
generation be one that is completely uniform? Will society have reached a point in
the next 20 years where cultures and minorities no longer determine elections? As
we enter an increasingly globalized society, it is difficult to say. However, I believe
that it is a distinct possibility that within our lifetimes, the rules of the game of
presidential election will change dramatically as it has in the history of democracy.
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