2Q5DWLRQDOLW\/HDUQLQJDQG=HUR6XP%HWWLQJ
$Q([SHULPHQWDO6WXG\
%\'RURQ6RQVLQR,GR(UHYDQG6KDURQ*LODW
)DFXOW\RI,QGXVWULDO(QJLQHHULQJDQG0DQDJHPHQW
7HFKQLRQ,VUDHO,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\
+DLID,VUDHO
-XQH
6HEHQLXV DQG*HDQDNRSORVSURYHWKDW]HURVXPEHWWLQJLVLUUDWLRQDO7RLQYHVWLJDWH WKHGHVFULSWLYHLPSOLFDWLRQV
RI WKLV UHVXOW ZH KDYH UXQ VL[ H[SHULPHQWV FRYHULQJ GLIIHUHQW H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQVLQZKLFKKXPDQVXEMHFWV
SOD\HGUHSHDWHGO\WKH6HEHQLXVDQG*HDQDNRSORVEHWWLQJJDPHIRUURXQGV7KHUHVXOWVUHYHDODKLJKLQLWLDOEHWWLQJ
UDWHWKDWGHFUHDVHVYHU\VORZO\ZLWKH[SHULHQFH7KH H[SHULPHQWDOPDQLSXODWLRQVKDGDVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQWKHLQLWLDO
EHWWLQJ UDWHV LQ VRPH RI WKH FRQGLWLRQV EXW GLG QRW DIIHFW WKH REVHUYHG VORZ OHDUQLQJ SURFHVV 2YHUDOO WKH UHVXOWV
GHPRQVWUDWHWKDWKXPDQDJHQWV
EHKDYLRUPD\SHUVLVWHQWO\EHYHU\GLIIHUHQWIURPWKHRQHLPSOLHGE\LWHUDWHGUHPRYDO
RI GRPLQDWHG VWUDWHJLHV HYHQ ZKHQ LW OHDGV WKH DJHQWV LQWR VLJQLILFDQW ORVVHV :H VKRZ KRZHYHU WKDW XQGHU WKH
DVVXPSWLRQWKDWWKHOHDUQLQJVSHHGGHFUHDVHVZLWKSD\RIIYDULDELOLW\VLPSOHSDUDPHWHUVDGDSWLYHOHDUQLQJPRGHOVFDQ
EHXVHGWRDSSUR[LPDWHWKHREVHUYHGDGDSWDWLRQSURFHVVHVLQDOOH[SHULPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQV
(PDLOFRUUHVSRQGHQFHVKRXOGEHVHQWWRVRQVLQR#LHWHFKQLRQDFLO:HWKDQN'DYLG%XGHVFX:HUQHU*XWK'DQ
/HYLQH'RY0RQGHUHU5RVHPDULH1DJHO$OYLQ5RWKDQG<OYD6¡YLNIRUFRPPHQWVDQGVXJJHVWLRQV:HDOVRWKDQN
WKHIXQGIRUWKHSURPRWLRQRIUHVHDUFKDWWKH7HFKQLRQIRULWVILQDQFLDOVXSSRUW
,QWURGXFWLRQ
7KH H[SHULPHQWDO OLWHUDWXUH RQ EDFNZDUG LQGXFWLRQ DQG LWHUDWHG UHPRYDO RI ZHDNO\
GRPLQDWHG VWUDWHJLHV LV VSOLW LQ LWV ILQGLQJV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH GHVFULSWLYH SRZHU RI WKHVH
SURFHGXUHV:KHUHDVVRPHVWXGLHVHJ(UHY5DSRSRUWVKRZWKDWLQLWLDOO\PRVW
VXEMHFWV WHQG WR SHUIRUP DW OHDVW WZR OHYHOV RI EDFNZDUG LQGXFWLRQ RWKHU VWXGLHV HJ
6WDKO DQG :LOVRQ H[KLELWDORZHULQLWLDOOHYHORIVRSKLVWLFDWLRQ0RUHRYHUZKLOH
VRPHVWXGLHVHJ1DJHOGHPRQVWUDWHWKDWWKHVXEMHFWVPRYHTXLFNO\WRZDUGVWKH
XQLTXHEDFNZDUGLQGXFWLRQHTXLOLEULXPRWKHUVWXGLHVHJ&RRSHUHWDOUHYHDOQR
VXFKFRQYHUJHQFH
7KHFXUUHQWSDSHUGHDOVZLWKDFRPSUHKHQVLYHH[SHULPHQWDOLQYHVWLJDWLRQRIWKH6HEHQLXV
DQG *HDQDNRSORV QREHWWLQJ FRQMHFWXUH ,Q WKH 6HEHQLXV DQG *HDQDNRSORV
KHQFHIRUWK 6* PRGHO DJHQWV ZLWK DV\PPHWULF LQIRUPDWLRQ DUH DVNHG WR GHFLGH
VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ZKHWKHUWKH\ZRXOGOLNHWRHQJDJHLQ]HURVXPEHWWLQJ7KHEHWLVUHDOL]HG
LI DQG RQO\ LI ERWK LQGLYLGXDOV YROXQWDULO\ DJUHH WR SDUWLFLSDWH 7KH DFWXDO RXWFRPH LV
GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKH UHDOL]HG VWDWH RI QDWXUH 6HEHQLXV DQG *HDQDNRSORV KRZHYHU
VKRZ WKDW LI WKH DJHQWV IROORZ VRPH EDFNZDUG LQGXFWLRQ W\SH RIUHDVRQLQJWKHQDWOHDVW
RQHRIWKHPPXVWUHMHFWWKHSURSRVHGEHWLQHYHU\VWDWHRIQDWXUHDQGEHWWLQJZLOOQHYHUEH
UHDOL]HG ,Q WKLV VHQVH UDWLRQDOLW\ LPSOLHV WKH LPSRVVLELOLW\ RI ]HURVXP EHWWLQJ LQ WKH
6HEHQLXVDQG*HDQDNRSORVIUDPHZRUN
7KHPDLQJRDORIWKHFXUUHQWSDSHULVWRVWXG\WKHSRWHQWLDOGHVFULSWLYHLPSOLFDWLRQVRIWKH
6*FRQMHFWXUHDQGLPSURYHRXUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHFRQGLWLRQVLIDQ\XQGHUZKLFKWKLV
LPSRUWDQWFRQMHFWXUHLVOLNHO\WRGHVFULEHKXPDQEHKDYLRU
,QRXUH[SHULPHQWVIL[HGSDLUVRIVXEMHFWVSOD\UHSHDWHGO\WKHWZREHWWLQJJDPHV 6DQG
/VNHWFKHGLQ)LJXUHIRUURXQGV:HKDYHVWDUWHGZLWKDEDVLFH[SHULPHQWRQ
SDLUVRIVXEMHFWV+DOIRIWKHVHSDLUVJRWSUHFLVHLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHXQGHUO\LQJJDPH
7KHRWKHUKDOISOD\HGWKHJDPHZLWKDOPRVWQRLQIRUPDWLRQ
,QVHUW)LJXUH!
7KH UHVXOWV IRU ERWK FRQGLWLRQV UHYHDOHG D SHUVLVWHQWO\ VWURQJ LQFOLQDWLRQ WR EHW 7KH
DYHUDJH EHWWLQJ UDWH DW WKH ILUVW URXQGV RI WKH H[SHULPHQW ZDV 7KH
FRUUHVSRQGLQJ LQGLYLGXDO HQWU\ UDWH DW WKH ILUVW URXQGV ZDV DOPRVW &RQYHUJHQFHWRWKHQREHWWLQJHTXLOLEULXPZDVH[WUHPHO\VORZ7KHDYHUDJHEHWWLQJUDWH
DWWKHILUVWURXQGVRIWKHUHSHDWHGSOD\ZDVWKHDYHUDJHEHWWLQJUDWHDWWKHODVW
URXQGVZDV
,Q DQ DWWHPSW WR WUDFH WKH UHDVRQV IRU WKH VXEMHFWV
SRRU SHUIRUPDQFH LQ WKH EDVLF
H[SHULPHQWZHKDYHPDQLSXODWHGWKHH[SHULPHQWDOGHVLJQLQGLIIHUHQWGLUHFWLRQV6RPH
RIWKHVHPDQLSXODWLRQVKDYHLQGHHGSURYHGVXFFHVVIXOLQWHUPVRIVLJQLILFDQWO\GHFUHDVLQJ
WKHREVHUYHG EHWWLQJUDWHV <HWLQDOORIWKHVHFDVHVLQGLYLGXDOVXEMHFWVNHSWDFFHSWLQJWKH
EHWUHSHDWHGO\LQRIWKHWULDOV7KH SHUVLVWHQWLQFOLQDWLRQWREHWWKXVVHHPV TXLWH
UREXVWZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHH[SHULPHQWDOPDQLSXODWLRQV
$SRVWKRFTXDQWLWDWLYHDQDO\VLVRIWKHH[SHULPHQWDOGDWDVHWVXJJHVWVWKDWVLPSOHDGDSWLYH
OHDUQLQJ PRGHOV PLJKW EH XVHG WR DSSUR[LPDWH VXEMHFWV
EHKDYLRU LQ DOO RI WKH
H[SHULPHQWDOGHVLJQV,QSDUWLFXODUZHGHPRQVWUDWHWKDWWKHDGMXVWPHQWSURFHVVFDQ HLWKHU
EH DSSUR[LPDWHG E\ D VLPSOH UHLQIRUFHPHQW OHDUQLQJ PRGHO RU E\ D VWRFKDVWLF ILFWLWLRXV
SOD\ PRGHO :H DUJXH WKDW LQ ERWK OHDUQLQJ PRGHOV XQGHU WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW WKH
OHDUQLQJVSHHGGHFUHDVHVZLWKSD\RIIYDULDELOLW\(UHY%HUHE\0H\HU5RWKLWLV
SRVVLEOH WR GHVFULEH WKH DGDSWDWLRQ SURFHVV LQ DOO H[SHULPHQWV E\ D VLQJOH VHW RI WZR
SDUDPHWHUV LH RQH GRHV QRW JDLQ PXFK H[WUD ILW E\ DSSUR[LPDWLQJ D GLIIHUHQW VHW RI
SDUDPHWHUV IRU HDFK H[SHULPHQW ,Q WKLV VHQVH WKH VORZ OHDUQLQJ SURFHVV VHHPV WR EH
VWDEOHDFURVVRXUGLIIHUHQWH[SHULPHQWDOPDQLSXODWLRQV
7KH SDSHU SURFHHGV DV IROORZV 6HFWLRQ RXWOLQHV WKH 6HEHQLXV DQG *HDQDNRSORV QR
EHWWLQJ UHVXOW 6HFWLRQ GHVFULEHV WKH EDVLF H[SHULPHQW 6HFWLRQ GHDOV ZLWK RXU ILYH
DOWHUQDWLYHGHVLJQV6HFWLRQSUHVHQWVWKHTXDQWLWDWLYHDQDO\VLV6HFWLRQFRQFOXGHV
7KH1R%HWWLQJ0RGHO
7RLOOXVWUDWHWKH6HEHQLXVDQG*HDQDNRSORVPRGHOZHXVHJDPH6IURP)LJXUH:HQRZ
GHVFULEHWKHJDPHYHUEDOO\DQGVNHWFKWKHQREHWWLQJDUJXPHQW$VVXPHWKDWWZRDJHQWV
2QHDQG7ZRDUHRIIHUHGD]HURVXPEHWRQDVSDFHRIVWDWHV: ^$%&'`DVIROORZV
,IWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV$DJHQW7ZRSD\VGROODUVWRDJHQW2QHLIWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV%
$OO WKURXJK WKH DQDO\VLV ZH GLVWLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ EHWWLQJ UDWHV ZKLFK UHIHU WR WKRVH FDVHV ZKHUH ERWK VXEMHFWV
VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ DFFHSWHG WKH EHW DQG HQWU\ UDWHV WKDW UHIHU WR WKH SURSRUWLRQ ZLWK ZKLFK LQGLYLGXDO SOD\HUV KDYH
DFFHSWHGWKHEHW
2QHSD\VGROODUVWR7ZRLIWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV&7ZRSD\V2QHGROODUVDQGLIWKH
WUXHVWDWHLV'2QHSD\V7ZRGROODUV7KHDJHQWVKROGDV\PPHWULFLQIRUPDWLRQRQ:
/HW 3
^ ^$%` ^&'` ` GHQRWH WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ SDUWLWLRQ RI DJHQW 2QH DQG 3 ^
^$` ^%&` ^'` ` GHQRWH WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ SDUWLWLRQ RI DJHQW 7ZR 7KXV ZKHQ WKH
UHDOL]HGVWDWHRIWKHZRUOGLV$RU%DJHQW2QHRQO\OHDUQVWKDWWKHWUXHVWDWHEHORQJVWR
WKHVXEVHW^$%`6LPLODUO\ZKHQWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV&RU'2QHRQO\OHDUQVWKDWWKH
WUXHVWDWHEHORQJVWR^&'`$JHQW7ZRRQWKHRWKHUKDQGOHDUQVWKHH[DFWVWDWHRIWKH
ZRUOGZKHQHYHUWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV$RU'EXWFDQQRWGLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQVWDWHV%DQG
&7KHEHWLVRXWOLQHGVFKHPDWLFDOO\DV*DPH6LQ)LJXUH$VVXPHDOVRWKDWERWKDJHQWV
LQLWLDOO\ DVVLJQ HTXDO SUREDELOLW\ ó WR HDFK SRVVLEOH VWDWH DQG WKDW EHWWLQJ RFFXUV RQO\
ZKHQ ERWK DJHQWV DFFHSW WKH SURSRVHG EHW ,I RQH RI WKH DJHQWV UHMHFWV WKH EHW LW LV QRW
UHDOL]HGDQGHDFKDJHQWJHWVDIL[HGUHVHUYDWLRQSD\RIIRIGROODU
1RWHWKDWJLYHQKLVSULRUXQLIRUPSUREDELOLW\DVVHVVPHQWDJHQW2QHH[SHFWVDJDLQIURP
EHWWLQJ LQ HYHU\ VWDWH RI QDWXUH LH LI WKH UHDOL]HG VWDWH LV $ RU % 2QH¶V FRQGLWLRQDO
H[SHFWHG SD\RII IURP EHWWLQJ LV ! WKH UHVHUYDWLRQ SD\RII LI WKH
UHDOL]HG VWDWH LV & RU ' 2QH¶V H[SHFWHG SD\RII IURP EHWWLQJ LV ! 6LPLODU FDOFXODWLRQV VKRZ WKDW DJHQW 7ZR H[SHFWV D JDLQ IURP EHWWLQJ ZKHQHYHU WKH
UHDOL]HGVWDWHLV%&RU':KHQWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV$7ZRNQRZVWKHDFWXDOUHDOL]HG
VWDWHDQGWKXVH[SHFWVDORVVRIGROODUV
$VVXPH QRZ WKDW WKH DFWXDO UHDOL]HG VWDWH LV ' DQG WKDW ERWK DJHQWV LQLWLDOO\ GHFLGH WR
DFFHSW WKH EHW DW WKDW VWDWH &RQVLGHU KRZHYHU WKH FDVH ZKHUH DJHQW 2QH PHQWDOO\ UH
HYDOXDWHVWKHSURSRVHGEHWLQIRXUVWHSVDVIROORZV
6WHS ,I 7ZR LV UDWLRQDO VKH VKRXOG FOHDUO\ UHMHFW WKH EHW ZKHQHYHU KHU UHDOL]HG
LQIRUPDWLRQVLJQDOLV^$`7KLVIROORZVIURPWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDW7ZROHDUQVWKHDFWXDO
VWDWHZKHQWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV$DQGWKXVH[SHFWVDFHUWDLQORVVIURPEHWWLQJDW$
6WHS ,ILQGHHG7ZRUHMHFWVWKHEHWZKHQHYHUWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHRIQDWXUHLV$,2QH
FDQ RQO\ ORVH GROODUV IURP EHWWLQJ ZKHQ P\ UHDOL]HG LQIRUPDWLRQ VLJQDO LV ^$%`
6* DVVXPH WKDW WKH UHVHUYDWLRQ SD\RII LV]HUR:H FKRRVHWRPRGLI\ WKLVIUDPHZRUNVOLJKWO\DQGDVVXPHD
IL[HGSRVLWLYHUHVHUYDWLRQSD\RII RIGROODU$VGHPRQVWUDWHGDERYHWKLVPRGLILFDWLRQGRHVQRWHIIHFWWKHRULJLQDO
QREHWWLQJUHVXOW<HWZHEHOLHYHLWPDNHVRXUH[SHULPHQWDOUHVXOWVPRUHLQWHUHVWLQJVLQFHZHVKRZWKDWWKHVXEMHFWV
NHHSRQEHWWLQJDOWKRXJKWKH\KDYHWKHRSWLRQRIJHWWLQJDSRVLWLYHUHVHUYDWLRQYDOXHLIWKH\UHMHFWWKHEHW
$QWLFLSDWLQJ6WHS,VKRXOGUHIXVHWKHEHWZKHQP\UHDOL]HGLQIRUPDWLRQLV^$%`LH
ZKHQWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV$RU%
6WHS ,I LQGHHG , 2QH UHMHFW WKH EHW ZKHQ WKH UHDOL]HG VWDWHRIQDWXUHLV%7ZRFDQ
RQO\ORVHGROODUIURPEHWWLQJZKHQKHUUHDOL]HGLQIRUPDWLRQVLJQDOLV^%&`7KXVLI
7ZR LV UDWLRQDO DQG DQWLFLSDWHV 6WHS VKH VKRXOG UHIXVH WKH EHW ZKHQ KHU UHDOL]HG
LQIRUPDWLRQLV^%&`LHZKHQWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV%RU&
6WHS ,ILQGHHG7ZRUHMHFWVWKHEHWZKHQWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHRIQDWXUHLV&,2QHFDQ
RQO\ ORVH GROODUV IURP EHWWLQJ ZKHQ P\ UHDOL]HG LQIRUPDWLRQ VLJQDO LV ^&'`
$QWLFLSDWLQJ6WHS,VKRXOGUHIXVHWKHEHWZKHQP\UHDOL]HGLQIRUPDWLRQLV^&'`LH
ZKHQWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV&RU'
7KXVLIDJHQW2QHDSSOLHVWKHDERYHUHDVRQLQJEHIRUHPDNLQJKLVILQDOEHWWLQJGHFLVLRQ
KHZLOOUHIXVHWKHSURSRVHGEHWDWWKHRXWVHWDQGEHWWLQJZLOOQRWWDNHSODFH
,QJHQHUDOOHW: GHQRWHDILQLWHVSDFHRIVWDWHV3GHQRWHWKHDJHQWV¶FRPPRQSULRURQ:
3 DQG3 GHQRWHWKHDJHQWV
LQIRUPDWLRQSDUWLWLRQVDQG[ :o ƒ GHQRWHD]HURVXP
EHWRQ: ZKHUH [ZGHQRWHVDJHQW7ZR
VSD\RIIWRDJHQW2QHZKHQWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV
Z : DQG D QHJDWLYH QXPEHU UHSUHVHQWV D SD\RII RI DJHQW 2QH WR DJHQW 7ZR DW WKH
FRUUHVSRQGLQJVWDWH/HWZ
: GHQRWHWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWH RIQDWXUHDQGDVVXPHWKDWERWK
DJHQWVH[SHFWDJDLQIURPEHWWLQJJLYHQWKHLUSULYDWHLQIRUPDWLRQDWZ
6*SURYH
WKDWLIWKHDJHQWVDUHULVNDYHUVHWKHQRQHRIWKHPPXVWUHMHFWWKHEHWZLWKLQ&DUG3 &DUG 3 VXFFHVVLYH UHHYDOXDWLRQ VWHSV DV GHPRQVWUDWHG DERYH ZKHUH &DUG 3 L
GHQRWHVWKHQXPEHURIHOHPHQWVDWWKHLQIRUPDWLRQSDUWLWLRQ3 L ,QWKLVVHQVH]HURVXP
EHWV ZLOO QHYHU EH UHDOL]HG LI WKH DJHQWV KDYH WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ WR WKRURXJKO\ UHHYDOXDWH
WKHLUSULQFLSOHZLOOLQJQHVVWRWDNHWKHEHWEHIRUHLWDFWXDOO\WDNHVSODFH
5LVNDYHUVLRQLVQRWUHTXLUHGWRREWDLQWKHQREHWWLQJUHVXOWLQJDPH67KLVIROORZVIURPWKHIDFWWKDWLQWKLVJDPH
HDFKVWDJHLQWKHLWHUDWHGUHPRYDORILQIRUPDWLRQHOHPHQWVSURFHVVOHDGVRQHRIWKHDJHQWVWRWKHFRQFOXVLRQWKDWKH
FDQRQO\ORVHIURPEHWWLQJLQDFHUWDLQLQIRUPDWLRQVHW*DPH/KRZHYHULVGLIIHUHQWDQGULVNDYHUVLRQLVUHTXLUHGLQ
RUGHUWRREWDLQWKHQREHWWLQJUHVXOWIRUWKHVWDWHV()*DQG+LQWKDWJDPH
)RUDQH[WHQVLRQRIWKHQREHWWLQJ UHVXOWWRWKHFDVHZKHUHWKHUHH[LVWVVRPHVPDOOSUREDELOLW\H WKDWWKHDJHQWVDUH
LUUDWLRQDO LQ WKH VHQVH WKDW WKH\ DFFHSW D EHW ZKHQ WKH\ H[SHFW D ORVV IURP EHWWLQJ VHH 6RQVLQR )RU DQ
H[WHQVLRQ WRD VWUDWHJLF PRGHO ZKHUHDJHQWV PD\UHQHJRWLDWHWKHEHWWLQJWHUPV UHSHDWHGO\ EHIRUHPDNLQJWKHLUILQDO
GHFLVLRQ VHH3HUHWVDQG6RQVLQR
7KH%DVLF([SHULPHQW
0HWKRG
)RUW\HLJKWSDLUVRI7HFKQLRQVWXGHQWVSOD\HGUHSHDWHGO\HDFKRIWKHWZRJDPHVRXWOLQHG
LQ)LJXUHJDPHV6IRU6KRUWDQG/IRU/RQJ(DFKJDPH ZDVSOD\HGUHSHDWHGO\IRU
URXQGV3DUWLFLSDQWVDUULYHGWRWKHODERUDWRU\LQSDLUVDQGZHUHVHDWHGVLGHE\VLGHIDFLQJD
SHUVRQDO FRPSXWHU VFUHHQ $ SDUWLWLRQ ZDV SODFHG EHWZHHQ WKHP SUHYHQWLQJ RQH SOD\HU
IURPVHHLQJWKHRWKHUSOD\HU¶VVFUHHQGLVSOD\RUDFWLRQ
7ZRH[SHULPHQWDOIDFWRUVZHUHPDQLSXODWHGWRWHVWWKHSRVVLEOHHIIHFWRILQIRUPDWLRQRQ
VXEMHFWV
LQFOLQDWLRQ WR EHW +DOI RI WKH VXEMHFWV SDLUV UHFHLYHG D GHWDLOHG FRPSOHWH
GHVFULSWLRQRIWKHXQGHUO\LQJEHWWLQJJDPH7RPDNHWKHVWRU\PRUHLQWHUHVWLQJKRZHYHU
ZHKDYHIUDPHGLWDVDVWRFNPDUNHWJDPH :HKHQFHIRUWKDGGUHVVWKHVHLQGLYLGXDOVDV
WKH³LQIRUPHGVXEMHFWV´7KHRWKHU³XQLQIRUPHG´SDLUVZHUHDOVRWROGWKDWWKH\ZRXOG
SDUWLFLSDWHLQDQH[SHULPHQWVLPXODWLQJDVWRFNPDUNHWDFWLYLW\7KHVHVXEMHFWVZHUHWROG
WKDW LQ HYHU\ URXQG RI WKH H[SHULPHQW HDFK RQH RI WKHP ZRXOG UHFHLYH DQ LQIRUPDWLRQ
VLJQDOGHVFULELQJWKHSRVVLEOHPDUNHWFRQGLWLRQVDQGZRXOGWKHQKDYHWRGHFLGHZKHWKHU
WR HQWHU WKH PDUNHW RU VWD\ RXW ,I RQH RI WKHP GHFLGHV WR VWD\RXWERWK RI WKHPZRXOG
UHFHLYHDSD\RIIRIRQHSRLQW,IERWKGHFLGHWRHQWHUSD\RIIVZLOOEHGHWHUPLQHGE\WKH
DFWXDOPDUNHWFRQGLWLRQV<HWWKHVHVXEMHFWVZHUHQRWLQIRUPHGRIWKHSD\RIIIXQFWLRQRI
WKH JDPH DQG WKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJLQIRUPDWLRQVWUXFWXUHV7KHWUDQVODWHG LQVWUXFWLRQVIRU
WKHWZRW\SHVRIVXEMHFWVDUHHQFORVHGLQDSSHQGLFHV$DQG$,QWKHH[SHULPHQWVWKH
LQVWUXFWLRQVZHUHSURYLGHGLQSULQWDQGH[SODLQHGYHUEDOO\E\WKHLQVWUXFWRUV
7KH VHFRQG PDQLSXODWLRQ LQYROYHG WKH RUGHU LQ ZKLFK WKH WZR JDPHV 6 DQG / ZHUH
SOD\HG7ZHOYHRIWKHSDLUVWKDWKDYHUHFHLYHGIXOOLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKH XQGHUO\LQJJDPH
VWDUWHGZLWKDUHSHDWHGSOD\RIWKH6KRUWJDPHDQGWKHQSOD\HGUHSHDWHGO\WKH/RQJJDPH
7KHRWKHUSDLUVVWDUWHGZLWKWKH/RQJJDPHDQGWKHQVZLWFKHGWRWKH6KRUWJDPH7KH
XQLIRUPHG SDLUV ZHUH VLPLODUO\ VXEGLYLGHG WR WZR JURXSV RI SDLUV HDFK :H
KHQFHIRUWKDGGUHVVWKHILUVWRUGHUDVRUGHU6/DQGWKHVHFRQGRUGHUDVRUGHU/6
7KH H[SHULPHQW VWDUWHG ZLWK IL[HG SUDFWLFH WULDOV 7KHVH ZHUH IROORZHG E\ UHSHWLWLRQV RI WKH ILUVW JDPH DQ LQWHUPLVVLRQ DQG UHSHWLWLRQV RI WKH VHFRQG JDPH
(DFK SDUWLFLSDQW VWDUWHG WKH H[SHULPHQW ZLWK SRLQWV 7KH DFFXPXODWHG VFRUH ZDV
UHVHWWRDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHUHSHDWHGSOD\RIWKHVHFRQGJDPH,QHYHU\URXQGRI
7KHVWRFNPDUNHWFRYHUVWRU\ZDVUHPRYHGLQH[SHULPHQWV
WKH JDPH WKH VXEMHFWV JDLQHG RU ORVW SRLQWV DFFRUGLQJ WR WKHLU UHDOL]HG SD\RIIV ,Q
SDUWLFXODULIRQHDJHQWRUERWKKDYHUHIXVHGWKHSURSRVHGEHWDWVRPHWULDOWKHQHDFKRI
WKHP JRW RQH SRLQW IRU WKDW WULDO ,Q WKH EUHDN EHWZHHQ WKH WZR JDPHV WKH LQIRUPHG
VXEMHFWV ZHUH JLYHQ DGGLWLRQDO LQVWUXFWLRQV GHVFULELQJ WKH H[DFW VWUXFWXUH RI WKH VHFRQG
JDPH 7KH XQLQIRUPHG VXEMHFWV ZHUH RQO\ WROG WKDW WKH VHFRQG SDUW RI WKH H[SHULPHQW
FRUUHVSRQGVWRD³GLIIHUHQWPDUNHW´
(DFK SOD\HU¶V VFUHHQGLVSOD\ LQFOXGHG ZLQGRZV 7KH ILUVW SUHVHQWLQJ WKH FXUUHQW
LQIRUPDWLRQVLJQDO7KHVHFRQGSUHVHQWLQJWKHSD\RIILQSRLQWVDWWKHFXUUHQWURXQG7KH
WKLUG SUHVHQWLQJ WKH DFFXPXODWHG SD\RII LQ SRLQWV ,Q HYHU\ URXQG RI WKH H[SHULPHQW
HDFK RI WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV ILUVW REVHUYHG KLV UHDOL]HG LQIRUPDWLRQ VLJQDO +H WKHQ KDG WR
FKRRVHRQHRIWZRNH\VWKHILUVWUHSUHVHQWLQJDGHFLVLRQWREHWDQGWKHRWKHUUHSUHVHQWLQJ
DGHFLVLRQQRWWREHW3D\RIIVZHUHWKHQUHDOL]HGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHJDPH¶VSD\RIIUXOHDQG
GLVFORVHGWRWKHSOD\HUV7KHDFFXPXODWHGVFRUHZDVXSGDWHGDFFRUGLQJO\
(DFKVXEMHFWUHFHLYHG6KHNHODSSUR[LPDWHO\ IRUSDUWLFLSDWLQJLQWKHH[SHULPHQW
,Q DGGLWLRQ HDFK SDUWLFLSDQW FRXOG JDLQ PRUH 6KHNHO DV D ERQXV FRQWLQJHQW RQ KLV
SHUIRUPDQFH LQ WKH H[SHULPHQW :H KDYH XVHG D ELQDU\ ORWWHU\ LQGHSHQGHQW ORWWHU\ IRU
HDFK SDUWLFLSDQWWRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHUWKHSOD\HUZLOOUHFHLYHWKHDGGLWLRQDODWWKHHQG
RI WKH H[SHULPHQW 7KH SUREDELOLW\ RI ZLQQLQJ WKH ORWWHU\ ZDV DQ LQFUHDVLQJ IXQFWLRQ RI
WKH VXEMHFW¶V DFFXPXODWHG VFRUH LQ WKH WZR EORFNV RI WKH H[SHULPHQW 7KH ORWWHU\ ZDV
LPSOHPHQWHG LQ RUGHU WR HOLPLQDWH WKH SRVVLEOH HIIHFWV RI ULVN DWWLWXGH RQ VXEMHFWV
EHKDYLRULQDFFRUGDQFHZLWK5RWKDQG0DORXIELQDU\ORWWHU\SURFHGXUH
5HVXOWV
,QLWLDOEHKDYLRU
7KH DYHUDJH LQGLYLGXDO HQWU\ UDWHV RI WKH LQIRUPHG VXEMHFWV DW WKH ILUVW URXQG LQ ZKLFK
HDFKLQIRUPDWLRQVHWZDVSOD\HGIRUHDFKRUGHUDQGHDFKJDPHDUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKHXSSHU
URZVRI7DEOH5HFDOOWKDWLQWZRRIWKHLQIRUPDWLRQVHWV^$`DQG^'`WKHUDWLRQDO
EHKDYLRULVREYLRXV7KHQXPEHURIURXQGVOHYHOVUHTXLUHGWRHOLPLQDWHHDFKRIWKHRWKHU
LQIRUPDWLRQ VHWV DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH 6* PRGHO LV OLVWHG DW WKH VHFRQG URZ RI WKH 7DEOH
7KHILJXUHVRQWKHWDEOHUHYHDODVXUSULVLQJO\ORZLQLWLDOOHYHORIUHDVRQLQJ,QGHHGHYHQ
LQFDVHVZKHUHLWWDNHVRQO\WZROHYHOVRIUHDVRQLQJWRUHDFKWKHQREHWWLQJFRQFOXVLRQDW
WKHLQIRUPDWLRQVHW^$%`WKHDYHUDJHHQWU\UDWHZDVKLJKHUWKDQ
)RUH[DPSOHWKHLQIRUPDWLRQ VHW^$%`LVHOLPLQDWHGDWWKHVHFRQGURXQGRIWKH6*UHDVRQLQJSURFHVVVRWKH³OHYHOV
UHTXLUHG´DUH
7KHULJKWKDQGFROXPQRI7DEOHSUHVHQWVWKHDYHUDJHLQLWLDOHQWU\UDWHRIWKHXQLQIRUPHG
VXEMHFWV IRU HDFK FRQGLWLRQ 6LQFH WKHUH LV QR SRLQW LQ VHSDUDWLQJ WKH QXPEHUV DFURVV
LQIRUPDWLRQ VHWV ZKHQ VXEMHFWV DUH XQLQIRUPHG ZH SUHVHQW WKH DYHUDJH DFURVV DOO
LQIRUPDWLRQVHWV7KHDYHUDJHLQLWLDOHQWU\UDWHDFURVVDOOFRQGLWLRQVLVVXUSULVLQJO\
KLJKDQG VLJQLILFDQWO\KLJKHUWKDQWKHUDWHLPSOLHGE\UDQGRPEHKDYLRUW>@ S
,QVHUW7DEOH!
9HU\6ORZ/HDUQLQJ
2Q DYHUDJH WKH H[SHULPHQWDO UHVXOWV UHYHDO D YHU\ VORZ GHFUHDVH LQ WKH LQFOLQDWLRQ WR
DFFHSWWKHEHWZLWKH[SHULHQFH:KLOHWKHDYHUDJHEHWWLQJUDWHDWWKHILUVWURXQGVRIWKH
UHSHDWHGSOD\RIWKH6KRUWJDPHZDVWKHDYHUDJHEHWWLQJUDWHDWWKHODVWURXQGV
ZDV RQO\ $ VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH DW S W>@ 7KH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ
ILJXUHV IRU WKH /RQJ JDPH VKRZ D GHFUHDVH LQ EHWWLQJ SURSRUWLRQ IURP WR W>@ S
7KHWZRFROXPQVDWWKHOHIWRI)LJXUHDSUHVHQWWKHDYHUDJHEHWWLQJUDWHVLQEORFNVRI WULDOVIRUHDFKRQHRIWKHH[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV 7KHJUDSKVUHYHDODYHU\VORZQHJDWLYH
WUHQGIRUPRVWRIWKHH[SHULPHQWDOPDQLSXODWLRQV7KLVOLQHDUWUHQGRYHUDOOH[SHULPHQWDO
PDQLSXODWLRQVZDVVLJQLILFDQW)>@ S
,QVHUW)LJXUHD!
,Q )LJXUH E ZH KDYH VHSDUDWHG WKH VXEMHFWV
EHKDYLRU LQ WKH 6KRUW JDPH DFURVV
LQIRUPDWLRQ VHWV 7KH JUDSKV GHPRQVWUDWH WKDW LQ JDPH 6 3OD\HU 7ZR KDV OHDUQHG WR
UHMHFW WKH EHW ZKHQ KLV UHDOL]HG LQIRUPDWLRQ VLJQDO ZDV ^$` 2Q DYHUDJH DW WKH ODVW EORFNVRIWKHH[SHULPHQWVXEMHFWVRIW\SH^$`KDYHUHMHFWHGWKHEHWLQRIWKHWULDOV
XQLQIRUPHG VXEMHFWV UHMHFWHG LQ RI WKH WULDOV ZKLOH LQIRUPHG VXEMHFWV UHMHFWHG LQ
RIWKHWULDOV7KHVHQLFHUHVXOWVKRZHYHUGRQ¶WFDUU\RYHUWRWKHQH[WLQIRUPDWLRQ
VHW RQ WKH 6* FKDLQ RI UHDVRQLQJ 7KH DYHUDJH UHMHFWLRQ UDWH RI SOD\HU 2QH DW WKH
7KHKRUL]RQWDOD[LVLQILJXUHVDDQGEFRXQWVWKHWULDOVEORFNVIURPEORFNWREORFNLQWKHH[SHULPHQWWKH
YHUWLFDOD[LVPHDVXUHVWKHDYHUDJHEHWWLQJUDWHDWWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJEORFN7KHWZRFROXPQVDWWKHOHIWRIWKHILJXUH
UHIHU WR WKH H[SHULPHQWDO UHVXOWV 7KH WZR FROXPQV DW WKH ULJKW UHIHU WR WKH VLPXODWLRQV WKDW ZLOO EH GLVFXVVHG LQ
6HFWLRQ
LQIRUPDWLRQVHW^$%`ZDVLQWKHFDVHRILQIRUPHGVXEMHFWVDQGRQO\LQWKH
FDVHRIXQLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWV:KHQZHPRYHRQWRWKHQH[WLQIRUPDWLRQVHW^%&`WKH
UHVXOWV DUH HYHQ ZHDNHU UHMHFWLRQ UDWH LQ WKH FDVH RI LQIRUPHG VXEMHFWV DQG UHMHFWLRQ UDWH LQ WKH FDVH RI XQLQIRUPHG VXEMHFWV 7KH GDWD IRU JDPH / UHYHDOV VLPLODU
WUHQGV1LFHOHDUQLQJDWWKHLQIRUPDWLRQVHW^$`ZKLFKFDUULHVRYHURQO\SDUWLDOO\WRWKH
LQIRUPDWLRQVHW^$%`DQGDOPRVWGLVDSSHDUVDWWKHLQIRUPDWLRQVHW ^%&`
,QVHUW)LJXUHE!
,QWHUHVWLQJO\ LW WXUQV RXW WKDW VXEMHFWV RI W\SH 2QH ORVW RQ DYHUDJH DFURVV ERWK JDPHV
DQG DOO WKH PDQLSXODWLRQV VHYHQSRLQWVLQHDFKRIWKHWULDOVLQZKLFKWKH\KDYHHQWHUHG
ZKHQ WKHLU UHDOL]HG LQIRUPDWLRQ VLJQDO ZDV ^$%` 7KH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ DYHUDJH ORVV RI
WKHVHVXEMHFWVDWWKHODVWEORFNRIWKHH[SHULPHQWZDVHYHQKLJKHUSRLQWV,QVSLWHRI
WKLVIDFWWKHVXEMHFWVNHSWDFFHSWLQJWKHEHWUHSHDWHGO\DW^$%`7KHDYHUDJHHQWU\UDWHDW
^$%`LQWKHODVWEORFNRIWKHH[SHULPHQWZDV
:HDN,QIRUPDWLRQ(IIHFW
)LJXUH GHPRQVWUDWHV WKDW LQIRUPDWLRQ KDG D VXUSULVLQJO\ ZHDN HIIHFW RQ VXEMHFWV
EHKDYLRU,QIRUPHGSOD\HUVRIW\SH7ZRZHUHOHVVOLNHO\WRHQWHUDWWKHLQIRUPDWLRQVLJQDO
^$`DQGPRUHOLNHO\WRHQWHUDWWKHLQIRUPDWLRQVLJQDO^'`<HWWKLVUHDVRQDEOHEHKDYLRU
GLGQRWWUDQVODWHLQWRDQRYHUDOOVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUEHWWLQJUDWHRIWKHLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWV
(YHQ WKH ODUJHVW GLIIHUHQFH LQ DYHUDJH EHWWLQJ UDWHV EHWZHHQ LQIRUPHG VXEMHFWV DQG
XQLQIRUPHG VXEMHFWV JDPH 6 EORFN RUGHU /6 ZDV QRW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW
)>@ S
1RQVLJQLILFDQW7UDQVIHU
7KHRUGHUPDQLSXODWLRQZDVLPSOHPHQWHGWRFKHFNZKHWKHUH[SHULHQFHLQRQHJDPHFRXOG
EH FDUULHG RYHU WR D VHFRQG GLIIHUHQW JDPH :H DOVR ZDQWHG WR FKHFN WKHLQWHUDFWLRQ RI
LQIRUPDWLRQ ZLWK WKLV SRVVLEOH ³WUDQVIHU´ HIIHFW 7KH UHVXOWV IRU WKH LQIRUPHG VXEMHFWV
SDUWLDOO\VXSSRUWWKHWUDQVIHUK\SRWKHVLV7KHLQLWLDOHQWU\UDWHVVHH7DEOHRI LQIRUPHG
VXEMHFWVLQJDPH6ZHUHLQGHHGORZHUDWWKHLQIRUPDWLRQVHWV^$`^$%`^&'`ZKHQ
WKH JDPH ZDV SOD\HG VHFRQG RUGHU /6 <HW WKH RUGHU HIIHFW GRHV QRW DSSHDU DW WKH
LQIRUPDWLRQ VHW ^%&` 0RUHRYHU WKH HIIHFW LV QHJDWLYH ZKHQ VXEMHFWV DUH XQLQIRUPHG
,QIRUPHGVXEMHFWVRIW\SH2QHORVW RQDYHUDJHSRLQWVIURPHQWHULQJDW$%8QLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWVORVWRQDYHUDJH
SRLQWVLQWKRVHFDVHV
WKHDYHUDJHLQLWLDOHQWU\UDWHRIXQLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWVLQJDPH6LVVLJQLILFDQWO\KLJKHULQ
WKHRUGHU/6 FRPSDUHGWR WKHRUGHU6/7KHWUDQVIHUHIIHFWVDUHHYHQZHDNHUIRUJDPH/
7ZR%HDWV2QHLQ*DPH6
7DEOH GHPRQVWUDWHV WKDW 3OD\HU 7ZR ZDV WKH ZLQQHU LQ JDPH 6 LQ ERWKLQIRUPDWLRQ
FRQGLWLRQVLQRXUH[SHULPHQWV 7KHKLJKHUJDLQVRIWKDWSOD\HUPLJKWEHH[SODLQHGE\WKH
IDFWWKDWWKLVSOD\HUKDVDEHWWHULQIRUPDWLRQVWUXFWXUHWKDQ3OD\HU2QHLQWKDWJDPH,Q
SDUWLFXODU3OD\HU7ZRLVDEOHWRSUHLGHQWLI\VWDWH$LQZKLFKKHPLJKWORVHDUHODWLYHO\
ODUJHQXPEHURISRLQWVIURPEHWWLQJ+HFDQVLPLODUO\SUHLGHQWLI\VWDWH'LQZKLFKKHKDV
DVXUHJDLQ3OD\HU2QHRQWKHRWKHUKDQGKDVDFRDUVHLQIRUPDWLRQVWUXFWXUHWKDWGRHVQ
W
LQFOXGH DQ\ VLQJOHWRQ HOHPHQWV 7KH UHODWLYH DGYDQWDJH RI SOD\HU 7ZR KRZHYHU JHWV
PXFKZHDNHULQJDPH/,QWKDWJDPHWKHLQIRUPDWLRQSDUWLWLRQRI7ZRFRQWDLQVRQO\RQH
VLQJOHWRQ HOHPHQW ^$` 0RUHRYHU WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ VWDWH $ LV
GHFUHDVHGWRFRPSDUHGWRLQJDPH6
,QVHUW7DEOH!
7KHIDFWWKDW3OD\HU7ZRPDNHVQLFHSURILWVDORQJWKHH[SHULPHQWEULQJVXSDQDOWHUQDWLYH
H[SODQDWLRQWRWKHFRQVLVWHQWLQFOLQDWLRQWRHQWHUDWWKHLQIRUPDWLRQVHW^$`3OD\HU7ZR
PLJKW NHHS HQWHULQJ RFFDVLRQDOO\ DW ^$` EHFDXVH WKLV EHKDYLRU SD\V RII %\ HQWHULQJ
RFFDVLRQDOO\ DW ^$` 7ZR FRQIXVHV SOD\HU 2QH DQG EUHDNV GRZQ WKH 6* GRPLQRHIIHFW
,QGHHGLI2QHZRXOGKDYHOHDUQHGWRUHMHFWWKHEHWDW^$%`7ZRFRXOGQRWKDYHHQGHG
WKH H[SHULPHQW ZLWK VXFK QLFH JDLQV ,Q 6HFWLRQ ZH UHH[DPLQH WKLV VRSKLVWLFDWHG
H[SODQDWLRQ
,QVHUW)LJXUH!
$OWHUQDWLYH([SHULPHQWDO'HVLJQV
)ROORZLQJWKHGLVFRXUDJLQJUHVXOWVRIWKHEDVLFGHVLJQZHKDYHGHFLGHGWRPDQLSXODWHWKH
H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV LQ VHYHUDO DOWHUQDWLYH GLUHFWLRQV LQ RUGHU WR H[DPLQH SRVVLEOH
H[SODQDWLRQV WR WKH REVHUYHG EHKDYLRU 7KH PDQLSXODWLRQV DQG WKHLU PDLQ UHVXOWV DUH
GHVFULEHGQH[W
7KHRUGHUPDQLSXODWLRQGLGQ
WKDYHDVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQWKHSD\RIIV
6WURQJHU)HHGEDFN
,QH[SHULPHQWZHKDYHHQKDQFHGWKHIHHGEDFNWKDWZDVSURYLGHGWRWKHVXEMHFWVDIWHU
HDFKWULDO,QSDUWLFXODUZHKDYHGLVFORVHGWRHDFKVXEMHFWWKHSD\RIIWKDWKHZRXOGKDYH
REWDLQHGLIKHFKRVHGLIIHUHQWO\DWWKDWURXQG,QJDPH6IRUH[DPSOHZKHQWKHUHDOL]HG
VWDWHRIQDWXUHDWWKHILUVWWULDOZDV$DQGSOD\HU2QHGHFLGHGWRHQWHUZKLOHSOD\HU7ZR
GHFLGHGQRWWRHQWHU7ZR JRWDIRXUOLQHVIHHGEDFNDVIROORZV
<RXUUHVSRQVHZDV1
$VDUHVXOW\RXUSD\RIILV
<RXUWRWDOVFRUHLV
,I\RXKDGFKRVHQ<
<RXUSD\RIIZRXOGKDYHEHHQ±
([FHSWIRUWKHDGGLWLRQDOIHHGEDFNWKHGHVLJQRIWKLVH[SHULPHQW ZDVLGHQWLFDOWRWKHRQH
GHVFULEHG LQ 6HFWLRQ :H KDG UXQ SDLUV RI VXEMHFWV LQ HDFK RI WKH IRXU EDVLF
LQIRUPDWLRQRUGHUFRQGLWLRQVIRUWKLVFDVH7DEOHSUHVHQWVWKHDYHUDJHLQLWLDOHQWU\UDWHV
IRU WKLVGHVLJQ7DEOHVDQGSUHVHQWWKHDYHUDJHEHWWLQJUDWHVE\EORFNVIRU WKH6KRUW
JDPHDQGWKH/RQJJDPHIRUWKLVFRQGLWLRQ7KHPDMRUFRQFOXVLRQVDUHRXWOLQHGQH[W
,QVHUW7DEOHVDQG!
'HFUHDVHLQLQLWLDOHQWU\UDWHVLQ*DPH6
7KH DYHUDJH LQLWLDO HQWU\ UDWH DFURVV DOO LQIRUPDWLRQ VHWV H[FHSW IRU ^'` RI LQIRUPHG
VXEMHFWV LQ *DPH 6 KDV GHFUHDVHG IURP LQ GHVLJQ WR DW WKH FXUUHQW
GHVLJQ7KHFRUUHVSRQGLQJSURSRUWLRQVIRUXQLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWVZHUHLQGHVLJQ
DQG DW WKH FXUUHQW GHVLJQ ,Q WKH /RQJ JDPH WKH DYHUDJH LQLWLDO HQWU\ UDWHV RI
LQIRUPHG VXEMHFWV ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW DFURVV WKH WZR GHVLJQV 7KH DYHUDJH
HQWU\UDWHVRIXQLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWVLQWKH/RQJJDPHKDYH GHFUHDVHGIURPWR
,QVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQOHDUQLQJ
7KHILJXUHVLQ7DEOHVDQGGHPRQVWUDWHWKDWWKHLQLWLDOLPSDFWRIWKHVWURQJHUIHHGEDFN
ZDVFDUULHGRYHUWRWKHVXEVHTXHQWURXQGV:KLOHWKHDYHUDJHEHWWLQJUDWHDFURVVWKHWZR
JDPHV WKH LQIRUPDWLRQRUGHU PDQLSXODWLRQV DQG WKH UHSHWLWLRQV LQ WKH RULJLQDO
2QHJRWDVLPLODUIHHGEDFNVFUHHQ VD\LQJ,I\RXKDGFKRVHQ1\RXU SD\RIIZRXOGKDYHEHHQ
GHVLJQ ZDV WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ ILJXUH IRU WKH VWURQJHUIHHGEDFN GHVLJQ ZDV
RQO\VLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHDWS7KHOLQHDUWUHQGIURPEORFNWREORFN
KRZHYHUZDVQRWVLJQLILFDQWO\GLIIHUHQWDFURVVWKHWZRGHVLJQV)>@ QV
3RVLWLYHLQIRUPDWLRQHIIHFW
,QIRUPDWLRQ KDG D SRVLWLYH HIIHFW RQ OHDUQLQJ LQ WKLV GHVLJQ :KLOH WKH GHFUHDVH LQ
LQGLYLGXDOHQWU\UDWHIURPEORFNWREORFNIRUWKHLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWVZDVWKH
FRUUHVSRQGLQJILJXUHIRUWKHXQLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWVZDV$OLQHDUWUHQGDQDO\VLVVKRZV
WKDWWKHGHFUHDVHLQEHWWLQJUDWHVDFURVVWKHILYHEORFNVZDVVLJQLILFDQWO\ODUJHUIRUWKH
LQIRUPHGVXEMHFWV)>@ S7KHQXPEHUVRQWDEOHVDQG GHPRQVWUDWHWKDW
WKHHIIHFWZDVPRVWSURQRXQFHG LQWKH/RQJJDPH
&KDQJHLQSD\RIIV
,QH[SHULPHQWZHKDYHFKDQJHGWKHSD\RIIPDWUL[RI*DPH6DVIROORZV7KHSD\RII
WRSOD\HU7ZRDWWKHVWDWH$ZDVFKDQJHGIURPWR7KHSD\RIIWRSOD\HU7ZRDW
WKHVWDWH'ZDVGHFUHDVHGIURPWR7KHPDLQSXUSRVHRIWKHFKDQJHZDVWRSURYLGH
VWURQJHU LQFHQWLYHV WR SOD\HU 7ZR WR UHMHFW WKH EHW DW $ :H H[SHFWHG WKDW WKH VWURQJHU
LQFHQWLYHV ZLOO VSHHG XS OHDUQLQJ DQG VLJQLILFDQWO\ GHFUHDVH WKH EHWWLQJ UDWHV :H KDYH
DOVR GHFUHDVHG SOD\HU 7ZR
V SD\RIIV DW ' LQ RUGHU WR PDNH LW PRUH GLIILFXOW IRU 7ZR WR
EHDW 2QH LQ WKH UHSHDWHG H[SHULPHQW 7KXV WKLV GHVLJQ DOVR WHVWV WKH VRSKLVWLFDWHG
H[SODQDWLRQGLVFXVVHGDWWKHHQGRIVHFWLRQ,IZHPDNHLWPXFKPRUHH[SHQVLYHIRU
SOD\HU7ZRWRHQWHUDW$DQGVLJQLILFDQWO\GHFUHDVHWKHFRPSHQVDWLRQKHPLJKWJHWDW'
WKHQLQWHQWLRQDOHQWU\DW^$`VKRXOGQRWSD\RIIDVPXFKDVLWGLGLQWKHSUHYLRXVVHWXS
:H KDYH UXQ WKLV GHVLJQ RQO\ RQ JDPH 6 DQG SURYLGHG WKH VXEMHFWV WKH VDPH GHWDLOHG
IHHGEDFN WKDW ZDV XVHG LQ GHVLJQ 7DEOH SUHVHQWV WKH DYHUDJH EHWWLQJ UDWHV RI WKH
LQIRUPHG VXEMHFWV DQG WKH XQLQIRUPHG VXEMHFWV IRU WKLV FDVH 7KH DYHUDJH UHVXOWV VHHP
TXLWH VLPLODU WR WKH RQHV REWDLQHG LQ GHVLJQ +RZHYHU FORVHU H[DPLQDWLRQV UHYHDO
VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHREVHUYHGEHKDYLRULQVSHFLILFLQIRUPDWLRQVHWV
,Q SDUWLFXODU WKH FKDQJH LQ SD\RIIV IURP GHVLJQ WR GHVLJQ KDV FDXVHG D VKDUS
GHFUHDVH LQ WKH LQFOLQDWLRQ RI LQIRUPHG VXEMHFWV WR DFFHSW WKH EHWDW WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ VHW
^$`7KH DYHUDJHHQWU\UDWHDW^$`KDVGHFUHDVHGIURPWR7KHHQWU\UDWHDW
^$%`KDVDOVRVLJQLILFDQWO\GHFUHDVHG)URPLQGHVLJQWRLQWKHFXUUHQW
GHVLJQ 7KH HQWU\ UDWHV DW ^%&` KRZHYHU ZHUH QRW DIIHFWHG E\ WKH FKDQJH LQ SD\RIIV
LQGHVLJQDQGLQGHVLJQ
7KHHIIHFWRIWKHFKDQJHLQSD\RIIVZDVPXFKZHDNHULQWKHFDVHRIXQLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWV
7KHDYHUDJHHQWU\UDWHRIVXEMHFWVRIW\SH^$`KDVGHFUHDVHGIURPWR7KLV
KRZHYHUZDVQRWVWURQJHQRXJKWRVLJQLILFDQWO\GHFUHDVHWKHDFFHSWDQFHUDWHVDW^$%`
)LQDOO\QRWHWKDWLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWVRIW\SH7ZRKDYHJDLQHGRQDYHUDJHSRLQWVLQWKLV
GHVLJQFRPSDUHGWRDQDYHUDJHJDLQRIPRUHWKDQSRLQWVLQGHVLJQ5HFDOOWKDWWKH
VXEMHFWVFRXOGPDNHDVXUHJDLQRISRLQWVE\VLPSO\UHMHFWLQJWKHEHWLQHDFKURXQG
7KLV PD\ VXJJHVW WKDW VRPH RI WKH ODUJH HQWU\ UDWHV DW ^$` REVHUYHG LQ WKH SUHYLRXV
GHVLJQVZHUH VWUDWHJLFRU LQWHQWLRQDO DVGLVFXVVHGDERYH
&KDQJHLQ&RYHU6WRU\
,QH[SHULPHQWZHKDYHPRGLILHGWKHLQVWUXFWLRQV DQGWKHIHHGEDFNWKDWZDVSURYLGHG
WR WKH VXEMHFWV LQ DWWHPSW WR FODULI\ DQG VLPSOLI\ WKH H[SHULPHQW ,Q SDUWLFXODU ZH KDYH
RPLWWHG WKH VWRFNPDUNHW FRYHU VWRU\ DQG XVHG WKH RULJLQDO ]HURVXP EHW IUDPLQJ RI
6HEHQLXV DQG *HDQDNRSORV VHH $SSHQGL[ $ IRU WKH WUDQVODWHG LQVWUXFWLRQV :H KDYH
DOVRFKDQJHGWKHVFUHHQGHVLJQDQGWKHIHHGEDFNV\VWHP$WWKHEHJLQQLQJRIHDFKURXQG
ZKHQWKHVXEMHFWUHFHLYHGKLVLQIRUPDWLRQVLJQDOVKHZDVUHPLQGHGRIKHU WZRRSWLRQV
<
1
$FFHSWWKHJDPH VHH LQVWUXFWLRQV
IRUSD\RII
5HMHFWWKHJDPHDQG\RXU
3D\RIIZLOOEHSRLQW
,QDGGLWLRQDIWHUHDFKURXQGRIWKHH[SHULPHQWHDFKSOD\HUREVHUYHGDIHHGEDFNZLQGRZ
GLVFORVLQJ DOO WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH UHDOL]DWLRQ RI WKH JDPH DW WKDW URXQG WKH UHDOL]HG
VWDWHKHUGHFLVLRQWKHRWKHUSOD\HUVGHFLVLRQKHUUHDOL]HGSD\RII
7KHGHVLJQZDVUXQ RQWKH6KRUWJDPHRQO\ZLWKSDLUVRILQIRUPHGVXEMHFWV7DEOH
VKRZVWKDWWKHEHWWLQJUDWHVSHUEORFNIRUWKLVGHVLJQZHUHYHU\VLPLODUWRDQGVWDWLVWLFDOO\
QRWGLIIHUHQWIURPWKHEHWWLQJUDWHVLQWKHRULJLQDOGHVLJQ&ORVHULQVSHFWLRQ UHYHDOV
7KHDYHUDJHHQWU\UDWHRIWKHVHVXEMHFWVLQGHVLJQZDV7KHFRUUHVSRQGLQJILJXUHIRUGHVLJQZDV
6XEMHFWVFRXOGREVHUYHWKHIHHGEDFNZLQGRZIRUDVORQJDVWKH\ZDQWHGWKH\ZHUHUHTXHVWVWRFOLFNDSURFHHG
EXWWRQZKHQWKH\DUHILQLVKHG
WKDWWKHPRGLILHGLQVWUXFWLRQVKDYHKHOSHGVXEMHFWVXQGHUVWDQGWKDWWKH\VKRXOGQRWHQWHU
LQ^$`7KHDYHUDJHHQWU\UDWHDW^$`KDVGHFUHDVHGIURPLQWKHGHVLJQWRLQ
WKHFXUUHQWGHVLJQ6LPLODUO\WKHVXEMHFWVKDYHOHDUQHGWKDWWKH\VKRXOGHQWHULQ^'`7KH
DYHUDJHHQWU\UDWHDW^'`KDVLQFUHDVHGIURPWR7KHDYHUDJHEHWWLQJUDWHVLQ
DOORWKHULQIRUPDWLRQVHWVZHUHQRWVLJQLILFDQWO\GLIIHUHQWDFURVVWKHWZRGHVLJQV
,QWHUHVWLQJ2XWVLGH2SWLRQ
7RFKHFNZKHWKHUVXEMHFWVNHHSHQWHULQJEHFDXVHUHMHFWLQJLVERULQJZHKDYHUHSODFHG
WKH IL[HG SRLQW UHVHUYDWLRQ SD\RII WKDW ZDV SDLG WR HDFK VXEMHFW ZKHQ WKH EHW ZDV
UHMHFWHGE\DVWDWHGHSHQGHQWORWWHU\ZLWKDQH[SHFWHGSD\RIIRISRLQW:HKDYHUXQWKLV
GHVLJQ RQ WKH 6KRUW JDPH ZLWK SDLUV RI LQIRUPHG VXEMHFWV 7KH LQVWUXFWLRQ VHW ZDV
LGHQWLFDOWRWKHVLPSOLILHGYHUVLRQXVHGLQGHVLJQH[FHSWIRUUHSODFLQJWKHVHQWHQFH LI
RQHRIWKHSOD\HUVUHMHFWVWKHEHW WKHEHWZLOOQRWWDNHSODFHDQGHDFKSOD\HUZLOOJHWD
SD\RIIRISRLQWZLWK ,IRQHRIWKHSOD\HUVUHMHFWVWKHEHWWKHEHWZLOOQRWWDNHSODFH
DQGWKHSD\RIIZLOOEHUDQGRPO\GHWHUPLQHG7KHGLVWULEXWLRQRISD\RIIVIRUWKLVFDVHZLOO
DSSHDURQ\RXUVFUHHQ
7KH SD\RII GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH UHVHUYDWLRQ ORWWHU\ ZDV IL[HG DFURVV WULDOV IRU HDFK
SOD\HUDQGIRUHYHU\SRVVLEOHLQIRUPDWLRQVLJQDORIWKDWSOD\HUEXWYDULHGDFURVVSOD\HUV
DQG DFURVV LQIRUPDWLRQ VLJQDOV :KHQHYHU WKH UHDOL]HG VWDWH RI QDWXUH ZDV ' IRU
H[DPSOHSOD\HU2QHREVHUYHGWKHVFUHHQ
<
1
'(&,'(
$FFHSW WKH JDPH VHH
LQVWUXFWLRQVIRUSD\RII 5HMHFWWKHJDPHDQG\RXU
SD\RIIZLOOEH
ZLWKSURE
ZLWKSURE
ZLWKSUREDELOLW\
7KHEHWWLQJUDWHVSHUEORFNIRUWKLVGHVLJQDUHGLVFORVHGLQ7DEOH7KHDYHUDJHEHWWLQJ
UDWHDFURVVDOOILYHEORFNVZDV7KLVUDWHLVORZHUWKDQWKHRQHIRUGHVLJQEXW
KLJKHU WKDQ WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ UDWHV IRU GHVLJQV DQG $Q H[DPLQDWLRQ RI
,QJHQHUDOWKHSD\RIIGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHORWWHU\ZDVGHWHUPLQHGDVIROORZV,WDVVLJQHGHTXDOSUREDELOLWLHVWRHDFKRI
WKHSD\RIIVWKDWWKHSOD\HUFRXOGJHWJLYHQKLVUHDOL]HGLQIRUPDWLRQVLJQDOVRWKDWSOD\HU2QHFRXOGJHWRU
ZLWKHTXDOSUREDELOLWLHVZKHQKLVUHDOL]HGLQIRUPDWLRQZDV^&'`DQGLWDVVLJQHGWKHVDPHSUREDELOLW\WRWKHSD\RII
WKDWPDGHWKHH[SHFWHGSD\RIIIURPWKHORWWHU\HTXDOWRWKDWLVLQWKHH[DPSOHDERYH
VXEMHFWV
EHKDYLRU DW WKH GLIIHUHQW LQIRUPDWLRQ VHWV JLYHV WKH LPSUHVVLRQ WKDW WKH
DOWHUQDWLYH ORWWHU\ RSWLRQ KDV FRQIXVHG WKH VXEMHFWV DQG WRRN WKHP HYHQ IDUWKHU IURP
FRPSO\LQJ ZLWK WKHUDWLRQDOQREHWWLQJFRQMHFWXUH7KHDYHUDJHHQWU\UDWHRIVXEMHFWVRI
W\SH ^$` KDV LQFUHDVHG WR FRPSDUHG WR LQ GHVLJQ 6LPLODUO\ WKH DYHUDJH
HQWU\UDWHDWWKHLQIRUPDWLRQVHW^'`KDVGHFUHDVHGIURPLQGHVLJQWRLQ
WKHFXUUHQWGHVLJQ
&KDQJLQJWKH,QFHQWLYH6FKHPH
,QWKLVGHVLJQZHKDYHPDQLSXODWHGWKHSD\RIIVFKHPHLQDQDWWHPSWWRVLPSOLI\WKHWDVN
,Q SDUWLFXODU VXEMHFWV ZHUH WROG WKDW WKHLU ILQDO DFWXDO SD\RII LQ 6KHNHOV ZRXOG EH
GHWHUPLQHGE\GLYLGLQJWKHLUDFFXPXODWHGVFRUHDWWKHHQGRIWKHH[SHULPHQWE\7KH
VXEMHFWVKDYHVWDUWHGWKHH[SHULPHQWZLWKSRLQWV2QFHDJDLQZHKDYHUHVWULFWHGWKLV
PDQLSXODWLRQWRWKH6KRUWJDPHZLWK LQIRUPHGVXEMHFWV:HKDYHXVHGWKHVLPSOLILHG
LQVWUXFWLRQVLQWURGXFHGLQ6HFWLRQPRGLILHGWRWKHFKDQJHLQSD\RIIVFKHPH
7KH DYHUDJH EHWWLQJ UDWHV SHU EORFN IRU WKLV GHVLJQ DUH SUHVHQWHG DJDLQ LQ 7DEOH 7KH
UHVXOWV VHHP FORVH WR WKH RQHV REWDLQHG LQ GHVLJQ WKH RQH ZLWK WKH VLPSOLILHG
LQVWUXFWLRQV7KHEHWWLQJUDWHVDUHVRPHZKDWORZHUEXWWKHGLIIHUHQFHVDUHQRWVWDWLVWLFDOO\
VLJQLILFDQW7KHDYHUDJHEHWWLQJUDWHDWWKHODVWEORFNRIWKHH[SHULPHQWZDVVWLOO
6XPPDU\$7ZR0RGHO)UDPHZRUN
7R VXPPDUL]H WKH UHVXOWV TXDQWLWDWLYHO\ LW LV FRQVWUXFWLYH WR GLVWLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ WKH
LQLWLDO WHQGHQFLHV WR DFFHSW WKH EHW DQG WKH REVHUYHG FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH OHDUQLQJ
SURFHVV ,Q WKLV VHFWLRQ ZH SUHVHQW D SRVWKRF WZRPRGHO IUDPHZRUN VXPPDUL]LQJ WKH
H[SHULPHQWDOGDWD7KHVSHFLILFPRGHOVZHH[DPLQHDUHRQO\H[DPSOHVRIWKHODUJHVHWRI
PRGHOV WKDW PLJKW EH XVHG WR VXPPDUL]H RXU GDWD <HW ZH EHOLHYH WKDW WKH DQDO\VLV
SURYLGHVLQWHUHVWLQJLQVLJKWLQWRRXUVXEMHFWV
EHKDYLRUDFURVVWKHH[SHULPHQWV
%HIRUHZHSURFHHGZLWKWKHGHWDLOVZHQHHGWRGHILQHWKHFRQFHSWRIDVWUDWHJ\ LQWKH6*
EHWWLQJ JDPH )RU WKLV VDNH ZH ORRN DW WKH JDPH DV D VWDWLF JDPH RI LQFRPSOHWH
LQIRUPDWLRQDQGGHILQHWKHQRUPDOIRUPVWUDWHJLHVDVIROORZV$SXUHVWUDWHJ\IRUSOD\HUL
VSHFLILHVWKHEHKDYLRURIL DFFHSWLQJRUUHMHFWLQJWKHEHWIRUHYHU\SRVVLEOHLQIRUPDWLRQ
VLJQDO WKLV SOD\HU PD\ UHFHLYH ,Q JDPH 6 IRU H[DPSOH D VWUDWHJ\ IRU SOD\HU 2QH ZLOO
VSHFLI\ WKDW SOD\HU
V EHKDYLRU DFFHSWRUUHMHFW ZKHQKLVREVHUYHGLQIRUPDWLRQVLJQDOLV
^$%`DQGKLVEHKDYLRUZKHQKLVUHDOL]HGLQIRUPDWLRQW\SHLV^&'`
0RGHOLQJWKH,QLWLDO%HKDYLRU
7RFKDUDFWHUL]H WKH VXEMHFWV
LQLWLDOLQFOLQDWLRQWRDFFHSWRUUHMHFWWKHEHWDVGHVFULEHGRQ
7DEOHZHXVHWKHFRQFHSWRIOHYHOQVWUDWHJLHVDVDGYDQFHGE\6WDKODQG
6WDKO DQG :LOVRQ ,Q SDUWLFXODU ZH DVVXPH WKDW VXEMHFWV FKRRVH WKHLU EHKDYLRU
IURP D ILQLWH VHW RI /HYHOQ VWUDWHJLHV DV IROORZV /HYHO LV WKH VWUDWHJ\ LQ ZKLFK WKH
DJHQWDFFHSWVWKHEHWLQHYHU\LQIRUPDWLRQVHW /HYHOLVWKHVWUDWHJ\LQZKLFKWKHDJHQW
SOD\VKLVEHVWUHVSRQVHWRWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWKLVRSSRQHQWSOD\V/HYHODQG LQJHQHUDO
/HYHOQ IRU Q! LV WKH VWUDWHJ\ LQ ZKLFK WKH DJHQW SOD\V KLV EHVW UHVSRQVH WR WKH
DVVXPSWLRQWKDWKLVRSSRQHQWSOD\VWKHVWUDWHJ\/HYHOQ
)RULQVWDQFHLQJDPH6LIWKHUHDOL]HGLQIRUPDWLRQLV^$%`VWUDWHJ\/HYHOLPSOLHVWKDW
3OD\HU 2QH ZLOO SOD\ EHVW UHSOD\ WR WKH EHOLHI WKDW WKH H[SHFWHG SD\RII IURP EHWWLQJ LV
6LQFH WKLV LV ELJJHU WKDQ WKH UHVHUYDWLRQ SD\RII 2QH¶V EHVW
UHVSRQVHLVWRDFFHSWWKHEHWDWWKDWLQIRUPDWLRQVHW6LPLODUO\LWLVHDV\WRVKRZWKDW2QH
ZRXOG DOVR SUHIHU WR DFFHSW WKH EHW DW WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ VHW ^&'` ZKHQ KH H[SHFWV KLV
RSSRQHQWWRHQWHU7KXV/HYHOIRU SOD\HU 2QHLVWKHSXUHVWUDWHJ\%HW%HW7DEOH
SUHVHQWVWKHVWUDWHJLHV/HYHOWR/HYHOIRUHDFKSOD\HULQWKHJDPHV6DQG/
,QVHUW7DEOH!
:HKDYHDGGHGWRWKHOLVWRQHPRUHVWUDWHJ\/HYHOWKDW LVLQWHUHVWLQJIRULWVRZQVDNH
VLQFHLWSUHVFULEHVEHWWLQJRQO\LQWKRVHLQIRUPDWLRQVHWVZKHUHWKHDJHQWH[SHFWVDJDLQ
IURPEHWWLQJLQGHSHQGHQWO\RIKLVRSSRQHQWEHKDYLRULHLWSUHVFULEHVEHWWLQJRQO\DWWKH
LQIRUPDWLRQVHW'RISOD\HU,,LQJDPH6
7R VWXG\ WKH HIIHFW RI RXU H[SHULPHQWDO PDQLSXODWLRQV RQ VXEMHFWV
LQLWLDO LQFOLQDWLRQ WR
EHW ZH VWXG\ D ORJLVWLF OHYHOQ PRGHO ZKHUH WKHSUREDELOLW\RIDFFHSWLQJWKHEHWDWWKH
LQIRUPDWLRQVHWS3DFFHSW_S LVJLYHQE\WKHH[SUHVVLRQ
3DFFHSW_S E E/>S@E />S@E/>S@
7KLVGHILQLWLRQLVGLIIHUHQWIURPWKHRQHXVHGE\6WDKODQG:LOVRQWKDWDVVXPHUDQGRPEHKDYLRULQ
/HYHO1RWHKRZHYHUWKDWXVLQJ6WDKODQG:LOVRQ
VGHILQLWLRQIRU/HYHOGRHVQRWFKDQJHWKHVWUXFWXUHRI
WKHVWUDWHJLHV/HYHO/HYHODVSUHVHQWHGRQ7DEOH
:KHQHVWLPDWLQJWKHPRGHOIRUWUHDWPHQWVWKDWRQO\LQYROYHGWKH6KRUWJDPHZHKDYHUHVWULFWHGWKHHTXDWLRQWRWKH
IRUP3DFFHSW_S E E />S@E/>S@E/>S@E />S@VLQFH/Q>S@ />S@IRUQ!LQWKLVJDPH
,QWKLVH[SUHVVLRQS>DFFHSW_S@ GHQRWHVWKHSUREDELOLW\ZLWKZKLFKWKHSOD\HUDFFHSWVWKH
EHWZKHQKLVUHDOL]HG LQIRUPDWLRQVLJQDOLVS/L>S@GHQRWHVWKHSUREDELOLW\RIEHWWLQJDWS
ZKHQWKHDJHQWIROORZVWKHVWUDWHJ\/LDQGEE GHQRWHWKHHVWLPDWHG SDUDPHWHUVRIWKH
PRGHO,QSDUWLFXODUE UHSUHVHQWVWKHLQGHSHQGHQWLQLWLDOWHQGHQF\WREHWZKLOHEE
UHSUHVHQWWKHLPSDFWRIWKHGLIIHUHQW/HYHOQVWUDWHJLHVRQWKDWWHQGHQF\
:H KDYH HVWLPDWHG WKH PRGHO¶V SDUDPHWHUV E\ UXQQLQJ ORJLVWLF UHJUHVVLRQV LQ GLIIHUHQW
OHYHOV RI GDWDDJJUHJDWLRQ )LUVW ZH KDYH UXQ WKH PRGHO IRU HDFK RQH RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV VHSDUDWHO\ DQG REVHUYHG WKDW D ,Q DOO WUHDWPHQWV ZLWK
LQIRUPHGVXEMHFWVWKHRQO\VLJQLILFDQWFRHIILFLHQWVZHUHEE DQG E WKHFRHIILFLHQWVE E ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW LQ DOO WKHVH WUHDWPHQWV E ,Q DOO WUHDWPHQWV ZLWK XQLQIRUPHG
VXEMHFWV WKH RQO\ VLJQLILFDQW FRHIILFLHQW ZDV E WKH FRHIILFLHQWV E E ZHUH QRW
VLJQLILFDQWLQDOOWKHVHWUHDWPHQWV
)ROORZLQJREVHUYDWLRQDZHDGRSWHGWKHUHVWULFWHGPRGHO
3DFFHSW_S E E/>S@E/>S@
WR UHSUHVHQW WKH LQLWLDO LQFOLQDWLRQ WR DFFHSW WKH EHW LQ WKH WUHDWPHQWV ZLWK LQIRUPHG
VXEMHFWV 7R VKRUWHQ WKH H[SRVLWLRQ ZH SUHVHQW WKH UHVXOWV RI WKLV HVWLPDWLRQ IRU DOO WUHDWPHQWV WRJHWKHU 7KH HVWLPDWHG FRHIILFLHQWV DQG VLJQLILFDQFH OHYHOV DUH E S E S DQG E S 7KHVH UHVXOWV FOHDUO\ UHIOHFW
WKHORZLQLWLDOOHYHORIVRSKLVWLFDWLRQRIRXUVXEMHFWV7KHVLJQLILFDQFHRIE IROORZV IURP
WKHKLJKHQWU\UDWHDWWKHLQIRUPDWLRQVHW^'`LQJDPH6
)ROORZLQJREVHUYDWLRQEDERYH ZHVLPSO\OHWWKHDYHUDJHHQWU\UDWHUHSUHVHQWWKHLQLWLDO
LQFOLQDWLRQWRDFFHSWWKHEHWLQWKHWUHDWPHQWVZLWKXQLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWVLHZHDGRSWWKH
PRGHO
3DFFHSW_S $YHUDJHLQLWLDOHQWU\UDWHDWS
WRUHSUHVHQWWKHLQLWLDOLQFOLQDWLRQWREHWLQWKHWUHDWPHQWVZLWKXQLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWV6LQFH
WKHDYHUDJHHQWU\UDWHDWWKHWUHDWPHQWVZLWKXQLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWVZDVVHH7DEOH
6HH7DEOHIRUDFRQFLVHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHH[SHULPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQVZLWKLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWVDQG
ZLWKXQLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWVLQYROYLQJWKH6KRUWJDPHDQG LQYROYLQJWKH/RQJJDPH1RWHWKDWVLQFHWKH
VKRUWJDPHKDVLQIRUPDWLRQVHWVZKLOHWKH/RQJJDPHKDVLQIRUPDWLRQVHWVWKHVHFRQGLWLRQVWUDQVODWHLQWRD
WRWDORI FXUYHV
ZHVLPSO\OHWS UHSUHVHQWWKHLQLWLDOLQFOLQDWLRQWRDFFHSWWKHEHWLQWKHWUHDWPHQWV
ZLWKXQLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWV
0RGHOLQJWKH/HDUQLQJ3URFHVV
/HDUQLQJE\5HLQIRUFHPHQW
7KHH[SHULPHQWDOOLWHUDWXUHRQOHDUQLQJLQJDPHVZLGHO\DJUHHVQRZWKDWKXPDQVXEMHFWV
EHKDYLRU LQ UHSHDWHG LQWHUDFWLRQV PLJKW EH DSSUR[LPDWHG E\ TXLWH VLPSOH DGDSWLYH
OHDUQLQJPRGHOV ,QWKLVVHFWLRQZHVKRZWKDWDVLPLODUWZRSDUDPHWHUPRGHOEDVHGRQ
WKHPRGHOVXVHGE\(UHYHWDODQG5RWKHWDOFDQEHXVHGWRDSSUR[LPDWH
WKHVXEMHFWV
EHKDYLRULQWKHFXUUHQWWDVN7KHPDLQDVVXPSWLRQVRIRXUPRGHOKHQFHIRUWK
DGGUHVVHVDV5/IRU5HLQIRUFHPHQW/HDUQLQJDUHGHVFULEHGQH[W
$,QLWLDO3URSHQVLWLHV
$W WLPH W EHIRUH DQ\ H[SHULHQFH KDV EHHQ DFTXLUHG HDFK SOD\HU L KDV DQ LQLWLDO
SURSHQVLW\ WR SOD\ KLV NWK SXUH VWUDWHJ\ WKDW LV GHVFULEHG E\ D UHDO QXPEHU TLN
,QIRUPDOO\WKHLQLWLDOSURSHQVLW\WRSOD\VWUDWHJ\NFDQEHWKRXJKWRIDVDVXEMHFWLYHLQLWLDO
HVWLPDWHRIWKHH[SHFWHGSD\RIIIURPSOD\LQJWKDWVWUDWHJ\
$8SGDWLQJRI3URSHQVLWLHV
,I SOD\HU L SOD\V KLV MWK SXUH VWUDWHJ\ DW WLPH W DQG UHFHLYHV D SD\RII RI [ WKHQ KLV
SURSHQVLW\ WR SOD\ VWUDWHJ\ M LV XSGDWHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR [ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH IROORZLQJ
IRUPXOD
$
TLMW >TLMW>&LMW1PL@[@>&LMW1PL@
ZKHUH&LMWLVWKHQXPEHURIWLPHVWKDWVWUDWHJ\MKDVEHHQSOD\HGE\LDWWKHILUVWWURXQGV
RI WKH JDPH 1 LV DQ HVWLPDWHG SDUDPHWHU WKDW GHWHUPLQHV WKH VWUHQJWK RI WKH LQLWLDO
SURSHQVLWLHVDQGPL LVWKHQXPEHURISXUHVWUDWHJLHVIRUSOD\HUL7KXVWKHSURSHQVLW\WR
SOD\VWUDWHJ\MLVLQFUHDVHGZKHQ[!TLMWRUGHFUHDVHGZKHQ[TLMWDFFRUGLQJWRWKH
SD\RII[ WKDWLWKDVDFWXDOO\JHQHUDWHGDWWKHODVWURXQGRIWKHJDPH
)RUVSHFLILFH[DPSOHVVHH (UHYDQG5RWK&KXQJDQG)ULHGPDQ7DQJ&DPHUHUDQG
+R0RRNKHUMHHDQG6RSKHU6DULQDQG9DKLG5DSRSRUWDQG$PDOGRVV
,QLWLDOSURSHQVLWLHVJHWWRJHWKHUDWRWDOZHLJKWRI1VRWKDWWKHLQLWLDOSURSHQVLW\DVVLJQHGWRHDFKVWUDWHJ\
MRISOD\HULLV1PL7KHGLYLVLRQE\PL LVUHTXLUHGLQRUGHUWRDSSUR[LPDWHWKHH[SHULPHQWDOUHVXOWVIRU
WKH6KRUWJDPHDQGWKH /RQJJDPHZLWKWKHVDPHJHQHUDO PRGHOVLQFHWKHQXPEHURISXUHVWUDWHJLHVIRU
HDFKSOD\HULVTXLWHGLIIHUHQWDFURVVWKHWZRJDPHV
7KHSURSHQVLW\WRSOD\DOORWKHUVWUDWHJLHVNzM WKDWZHUHQRWDFWXDOO\SOD\HGDWURXQGWLV
QRWFKDQJHGDWWKDWURXQG
$([SRQHQWLDO'HULYDWLRQRI3UREDELOLWLHV
7KHSUREDELOLW\SLNWWKDWSOD\HULSOD\VKLVNWKSXUHVWUDWHJ\DWWLPHWLVJLYHQE\
$
SLNW (;3>OTLNW6LW@6 (;3>OTLMW6LW@
ZKHUH WKH VXP LV RYHU DOO RI SOD\HU L¶V SXUH VWUDWHJLHV O LV DQ HVWLPDWHGSDUDPHWHU WKDW
UHSUHVHQWV WKH VHQVLWLYLW\ RI WKH FKRLFHSUREDELOLWLHV ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKH KLVWRU\ RI WKH
JDPHDQG6LWLVDPHDVXUHRISD\RIIYDULDELOLW\WKDWLVUHSHDWHGO\XSGDWHGDVIROORZV
6L HTXDOV WKH H[SHFWHG DEVROXWH YDOXH RI WKH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH SD\RII REWDLQHG
IURP UDQGRP FKRLFH DQG WKH DYHUDJH SD\RII IURP UDQGRP FKRLFH DQG IRU HYHU\ W t
6LWLVFDOFXODWHGIURP6LWE\WKHIROORZLQJIRUPXOD
6LW >6LWW1_[ $LW_@>W1@
ZKHUH$LGHQRWHVWKHH[SHFWHGSD\RIIIURPUDQGRPFKRLFHDQGIRUHYHU\Wt
$LW >$LWW1[@>W1@
([LVWLQJ H[SHULPHQWDO GDWD VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH VSHHG RI OHDUQLQJ GHFUHDVHV ZLWK SD\RII
YDULDELOLW\VHHIRUH[DPSOH(UHYHWDO7KHQRUPDOL]DWLRQRIWKHSURSHQVLWLHVIRU
WLPHWZLWKUHVSHFWWR6LWLVFDUULHGRXWLQRUGHUWRUHIOHFWWKLVIDFW
7RJHWKHU RXU PRGHO KDV WZR HVWLPDWHG SDUDPHWHUV O DQG 1 )RU RXU VSHFLILF
DSSOLFDWLRQ ZH DVVXPH WKDW WKH VWUDWHJ\ VSDFH XSRQ ZKLFK WKH PRGHO LV DSSOLHG LV WKH
VSDFH RI QRUPDOIRUP VWUDWHJLHV LQWKH6*EHWWLQJJDPH:HXVHWKHLQLWLDOSURSHQVLWLHV
PRGHOVGHVFULEHGLQ6HFWLRQIRUWKHSRRORILQIRUPHGVXEMHFWVDQGIRUWKH
SRRO RI XQLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWV WRHVWLPDWHWKHLQLWLDOLQFOLQDWLRQWRDFFHSWWKHEHWLQHDFK
LQIRUPDWLRQVHWDQGGHULYHDFRUUHVSRQGLQJLQLWLDOSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQRYHUWKHVSDFH
RISXUHQRUPDOIRUPVWUDWHJLHVRIWKHJDPHLQWKHREYLRXVZD\
LH LI ; GHQRWHV WKH UDQGRP SD\RII WR HDFK SOD\HU ZKHQ ERWK SOD\HUV HQWHU ZLWK SUREDELOLW\ LQ HDFK
LQIRUPDWLRQ VHW LQGHSHQGHQWO\ DFURVV LQIRUPDWLRQ VHWV WKHQ 6L LV HTXDO WR (œ; (;œ ZKHUH ( LV WKH
H[SHFWDWLRQRSHUDWRU
7KLVQRUPDOL]DWLRQLVHVSHFLDOO\UHOHYDQWWRWKHFRPSDULVRQEHWZHHQGHVLJQV DQGDOORWKHUWUHDWPHQWV
0HWKRGDQG0DLQ5HVXOWV
$JULGVHDUFKZDVFRQGXFWHGWRILQGWKHSDUDPHWHUVO DQG1WKDWPLQLPL]HWKH0HDQ
6TXDUHG'HYLDWLRQ06' EHWZHHQWKHREVHUYHGDYHUDJHEHWWLQJUDWHVLQEORFNVRI
WULDOV DQG WKH OHDUQLQJ PRGHO
V SUHGLFWLRQV 7KH PRGHO
V SUHGLFWLRQV ZHUH GHULYHG E\
UXQQLQJFRPSXWHUVLPXODWLRQVIRUHDFKH[SHULPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQ ,QHDFKVLPXODWLRQ
DSDLURIYLUWXDODJHQWVSOD\HGDIL[HG6*EHWWLQJJDPHUHSHDWHGO\,QHDFKURXQGWRIWKH
VLPXODWLRQWKHIROORZLQJVWHSVZHUHLPSOHPHQWHG
3OD\HUV¶VWUDWHJLHVZHUHUDQGRPO\VHOHFWHGDFFRUGLQJ WR$VVXPSWLRQ$
7KHVWDWHRIQDWXUHZDVUDQGRPO\VHOHFWHGDQGHDFKSOD\HU¶VUHDOL]HG
LQIRUPDWLRQVLJQDODQGLPSOLHGDFWEHWRUGRQ
WEHWZHUHGHWHUPLQHGDFFRUGLQJO\
,QGLYLGXDOSD\RIIVZHUHFDOFXODWHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHJDPH¶VSD\RIIIXQFWLRQ
,QGLYLGXDOSURSHQVLWLHVZHUHXSGDWHGDFFRUGLQJWR$VVXPSWLRQ$
7KHDYHUDJHSD\RIIPHDVXUH$WDQGSD\RIIYDULDELOLW\PHDVXUH6WZHUHXSGDWHG
DFFRUGLQJO\
7KHEHVWILWLQRXUJULGVHDUFKZDVREWDLQHGIRUWKHFDVHZKHUH1 DQGO 7KH
06' RYHU WKH FXUYHV VHH IRRWQRWH ZDV 7KH VLPXODWLRQ UHVXOWV IRU
H[SHULPHQWWKHEDVLFGHVLJQDUHJUDSKHGYLVDYLVWKHH[SHULPHQWDOUHVXOWVLQ)LJXUH
7R FKHFN WKH UREXVWQHVV RI WKH OHDUQLQJ SURFHVV ZLWK UHVSHFW WR RXU H[SHULPHQWDO
PDQLSXODWLRQVZHKDYHDOVRHVWLPDWHGWKHPRGHO¶VSDUDPHWHUVVHSDUDWHO\IRUHDFKRIWKH
WDVNV7KH SURFHGXUH WKDWKDVLQFUHDVHGWKHQXPEHURIHVWLPDWHG SDUDPHWHUVIURPWR
KDVGHFUHDVHGWKHDYHUDJH06'VFRUHIURPWR
$VDQDGGLWLRQDOVHQVLWLYLW\FKHFNZHKDYHDOVRHVWLPDWHGWKHLQLWLDOLQFOLQDWLRQWREHWIRU
HDFK RQH RI WKH WUHDWPHQWV VHSDUDWHO\ XVLQJ HTXDWLRQ IRU WKH WUHDWPHQWV ZLWK
LQIRUPHGVXEMHFWVDQGHTXDWLRQIRUWUHDWPHQWVZLWKXQLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWDQGXVHGWKH
HVWLPDWHG HTXDWLRQV WR JHQHUDWH WKH LQLWLDO SURSHQVLWLHV IRU WKH VLPXODWLRQ RI HDFK
)RUPDOO\ WKH 06' VFRUH PHDVXUHV WKH DYHUDJH VTXDUHG GLVWDQFH EHWZHHQ WKH SUHGLFWLRQ JUDSK DQG WKH
H[SHULPHQWDOGDWD)RUDGHWDLOHGGLVFXVVLRQRI06'UXOHVVHH6HOWHQ
1RWHKRZHYHUWKDWRXUOHDUQLQJPRGHOZLWKWKHLQLWLDOSURSHQVLWLHVGHULYHGIURPHTXDWLRQVDQG
GRHVQRWGLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQH[SHULPHQWVDQG:HKDYHWKXVXVHGWKHVDPHVLPXODWLRQUHVXOWV
IRUWKHVHIRXUWUHDWPHQWV
WUHDWPHQW 7KH DYHUDJH 06' IRU WKLV WUHDWPHQW KRZHYHU ZDV YHU\ FORVH WR WKH RQH
REWDLQHGLQWKHJHQHUDOHVWLPDWLRQ06' LQERWKFDVHV
)LQDOO\ZHKDYHDOVR UXQWKHVLPXODWLRQVWDUWLQJZLWKDXQLIRUPLQLWLDOEHWWLQJUDWHRI
LQHDFKLQIRUPDWLRQVHWV7KHDYHUDJH06'VFRUHRIWKLVPRGHOZDV7KHUHVXOWV
RIDOOVLPXODWLRQVDUHSUHVHQWHGRQ7DEOH
7RYHULI\WKDWWKHQRUPDOL]DWLRQIRUSD\RIIYDULDELOLW\DVPHDVXUHGE\WKHSDUDPHWHU6LW
LQGHHGFRQWULEXWHVWRWKHILWRIWKHPRGHOZHKDYHUXQWKHVLPXODWLRQVDJDLQUHVWULFWLQJ
6LW IRU HDFK W DQG L 7KH 06' RI WKH UHVWULFWHG PRGHO ZDV VHH 7DEOH IRU
FRPSDULVRQVZLWKRWKHUVLPXODWLRQV7KHDGMXVWPHQWRIWKHOHDUQLQJVSHHGZLWKUHVSHFWWR
SD\RIIYDULDELOLW\WKXVVHHPVYHU\LPSRUWDQWLQWKHFXUUHQWDSSOLFDWLRQ
$FORVHU H[DPLQDWLRQRIWKHVLPXODWLRQUHVXOWVVHHIRUH[DPSOHWKHVXPPDUL]LQJJUDSKV
LQ ILJXUHV UHYHDOV WKDW RXU OHDUQLQJ PRGHO QLFHO\ FDSWXUHV WKH PDLQ H[SHULPHQWDO
UHVXOWVHJWKHYHU\VORZOHDUQLQJLQJDPH/FRPSDUHGWRWKH VRPHZKDWIDVWHUOHDUQLQJ
LQ JDPH 6 WKHGLIIHUHQFHLQVXEMHFWV
EHKDYLRU DFURVVLQIRUPDWLRQVHWVWKHIDFWWKDWWKH
H[SHULPHQWDOPDQLSXODWLRQVRXWOLQHGLQ6HFWLRQGLGQRWKDYHDVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQWKH
DGDSWDWLRQSURFHVV
6WRFKDVWLF)LFWLWLRXV3OD\
6WRFKDVWLF )LFWLWLRXV 3OD\ PRGHOV KHQFHIRUWK 6)3 VHH IRU H[DPSOHV )XGHQEHUJ DQG
/HYLQH *RHUHH DQG +ROW W\SLFDOO\ DVVXPH WKDW WKH SOD\HUV XVH DOO WKH
DYDLODEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ WR FRPSXWH WKH H[SHFWHG SD\RII IURP HDFK VWUDWHJ\ ,Q SDUWLFXODU
WKH 6)3 PRGHOV LPSOLFLWO\ DVVXPH WKDW WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ FRQFHUQLQJ WKH IRUJRQH SD\RII
IURPXQFKRVHQVWUDWHJLHVLVDVLPSRUWDQWDVWKHSD\RIIVDFWXDOO\REWDLQHG)RUPDOO\VHH
&DPHUHUDQG+RLWLVSRVVLEOHWRVKRZWKDWWKHVDPHWKUHHHTXDWLRQVWKDWZHUHXVHG
WRGHVFULEHWKH/HDUQLQJE\5HLQIRUFHPHQWPRGHOLQ6HFWLRQFDQEHXVHGWRSUHVHQW
6)3OHDUQLQJZKHQDVVXPSWLRQ$LVUHSODFHGE\WKHIROORZLQJ$
$¶8SGDWLQJRI3URSHQVLWLHVZLWKNQRZQIRUJRQHSD\RIIV
,IWKHSD\RIIWKDWZDVREWDLQHGRUFRXOGKDYHEHHQREWDLQHGIURPVWUDWHJ\MDWWULDOWLV[M
WKHQ WKH SURSHQVLW\ WR SOD\ VWUDWHJ\ M LV XSGDWHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR [M DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH
IROORZLQJIRUPXOD
$¶ TLMW >TLMW>W1PL@[M @>W1PL@
7RHYDOXDWHWKHGHVFULSWLYHSRZHURIWKH6)3OHDUQLQJPRGHOLQWKHFXUUHQWH[SHULPHQW
ZH KDYH XVHG DJDLQ WKH JULG VHDUFK PHWKRG FRPSXWHU VLPXODWLRQVRXWOLQHGLQ6HFWLRQ
WRHVWLPDWHWKHSDUDPHWHUV1DQGO,QSDUWLFXODUZHKDYHHVWLPDWHGWZRYHUVLRQV
RIWKHPRGHO$WWKHILUVWZHKDYHQRUPDOL]HGIRUSD\RIIYDULDELOLW\H[DFWO\DVH[SODLQHG
LQ6HFWLRQ $WWKHVHFRQGZHKDYHFRQVWUDLQHGWKHSD\RIIYDULDELOLW\PHDVXUH6W
WREHIRUDOOW
7KHUHVXOWVRIWKHWZRHVWLPDWLRQVDUHVXPPDUL]HGDWWKHERWWRP RI 7DEOH7KHILWRIWKH
6)3PRGHOZLWKQRUPDOL]DWLRQLVFRPSDUHGWR06' IRUWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJ
5/PRGHO$FORVHUORRNDWWKHUHVXOWV VXJJHVWVWKDWWKHPDLQUHDVRQIRUWKHVOLJKWO\ORZHU
ILW LV WKDW WKH 6)3 PRGHO SUHGLFWV D KLJKHU OHDUQLQJ VSHHG WKDQ WKH 5/ PRGHO 7KLV
SUHGLFWLRQLVLQFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHUHVXOWVIRUVRPHRIRXUWUHDWPHQWV
$VLQWKHFDVHRIWKH5/PRGHOWKHILWLVLPSDLUHGWKH06'LQFUHDVHVWRZKHQWKH
QRUPDOL]DWLRQ LV UHPRYHG &ORVHU H[DPLQDWLRQV VXJJHVW WKDW WKH QRUPDOL]DWLRQ LV
SDUWLFXODUO\LPSRUWDQWWRFDSWXUHWKHSD\RIIPDQLSXODWLRQHIIHFWGHVFULEHGLQH[SHULPHQW
:LWKRXW WKLV QRUPDOL]DWLRQ ERWK PRGHOV 5/ DQG 6)3 SUHGLFW D ODUJH GLIIHUHQFH
EHWZHHQWKHSUHGLFWLRQVIRUH[SHULPHQWDQGWKHH[SHULPHQWDOUHVXOWVIRUWKLVWUHDWPHQW
'LVFXVVLRQ
7KH 6* PRGHO VHHPV OLNH DQ HVSHFLDOO\ LQWHUHVWLQJ VHWWLQJ IRU WHVWLQJ KXPDQ DJHQWV
DELOLW\ WR OHDUQ IURP H[SHULHQFH WR EHKDYH LQ WKH UDWLRQDO ZD\ ,Q SDUWLFXODU QRWH WKDW
VLQFH WKH 6* JDPH LV D ]HURVXP JDPH ZLWK D IL[HG SRVLWLYH UHVHUYDWLRQ SD\RII WKH
VWUDWHJLF W\SH RI H[SODQDWLRQV WKDW PD\ EH XVHG WR H[SODLQ VXEMHFWV
GHYLDWLRQV IURP
XQLTXH HTXLOLEULXP RXWFRPHV LQ JDPHV OLNH WKH &HQWLSHGH JDPH HJ 0F.HOYH\ DQG
3DOIUH\ FDQQRW EH LQYRNHG LQ WKLV VHWWLQJ 2XU FRPSUHKHQVLYH H[SHULPHQWDO
LQYHVWLJDWLRQ DOVR VXJJHVWV WKDW ZH FDQQRW H[SODLQ WKH VXEMHFWV
SHUVLVWHQW LQFOLQDWLRQ WR
EHW E\ PHDQV RI ULVNSUHIHUHQFHV ZURQJ LQVWUXFWLRQV ZHDN IHHGEDFN ERULQJ
DOWHUQDWLYHVRUDZURQJSD\RIIVFKHPH7KHDUJXPHQWVXEMHFWVEHWVLPSO\EHFDXVHWKH\
ORYH EHWWLQJ RU HQMR\ SOD\LQJ JDPHV OLNH WKH 6* EHWWLQJ JDPH HJ WKH\ GHULYH XWLOLW\
IURPEHWWLQJDOVRVHHPVLUUHOHYDQWVLQFHRXUVXEMHFWVNHSWEHWWLQJDQGORVLQJHYHQZKHQ
WKH DOWHUQDWLYH ZDV D GHJHQHUDWHG EHW GHVLJQ :LWK WKLV UHJDUG QRWH DOVR WKDW WKH
1RWHWKDW)XGHQEHUJDQG/HYLQHDQG *RHUHHDQG+ROWGLG QRWQRUPDOL]HIRUSD\RIIYDULDELOLW\
7KHIXOOGHWDLOVRQWKH6)3HVWLPDWLRQFDQEHREWDLQHGIURPWKHDXWKRUVXSRQUHTXHVW
EHWWLQJ UDWH RI RXU LQIRUPHG VXEMHFWV ZDV QRW ORZHU WKDQ WKH EHWWLQJ UDWH RI WKH
XQLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWVHYHQWKRXJKWKHXQLQIRUPHGW\SHVGLGQRWNQRZWKHH[DFWVWUXFWXUH
RIWKHJDPH
,WLVLPSRUWDQWKRZHYHUWRHPSKDVL]HWKDWRXUUHVXOWVGRQRWLPSO\WKDWVXEMHFWVFDQQRW
OHDUQ WR SOD\ UDWLRQDO HTXLOLEULD LQ JDPHV ZLWK D XQLTXH UDWLRQDO RXWFRPH 7KHUH LV QR
GRXEWWKDWYHU\GHWDLOHGLQVWUXFWLRQVXVHRIWKH³VWUDWHJ\PHWKRG´RUUROHVZLWFKLQJDFURVV
SOD\HUVPLJKWKHOSVXEMHFWVPRYHFORVHUWRWKHUDWLRQDOVROXWLRQV6¡YLN7KHPDLQ
LPSOLFDWLRQVRIWKHFXUUHQWVWXG\KRZHYHUDUHWKDW³H[SHULHQFH´SHUVHGRHVQRWJXDUDQWHH
HOLPLQDWLRQ RI ]HUR VXP EHWWLQJ 7KH IDFW WKDW SDUDPHWHUV PRGHOV FDQ EH XVHG WR
DSSUR[LPDWH WKH OHDUQLQJ WUHQGV LQ GLIIHUHQW WDVNV ZKHQ WKH OHDUQLQJ VSHHG LV
QRUPDOL]HG WR DFFRXQW IRU SD\RII YDULDELOLW\ VXJJHVWV WKDW JHQHUDO DSSUR[LPDWLRQV RI
EHKDYLRUFDQEHREWDLQHG7KHREVHUYHGOHDUQLQJSURFHVVLQRXUH[SHULPHQWVLQSDUWLFXODU
VHHPVUHODWLYHO\UREXVWZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHH[SHULPHQWDOPDQLSXODWLRQV
5HIHUHQFHV
&DPHUHU&)DQG+R7([SHULHQFHZHLJKWHGDWWUDFWLRQOHDUQLQJLQQRUPDO
IRUPJDPHV(FRQRPHWULFD 9RO
&KXQJ<:DQG)ULHGPDQ'$FRPSDULVRQRIOHDUQLQJDQGUHSOLFDWRU
G\QDPLFVXVLQJH[SHULPHQWDOGDWDIRUWKFRPLQJ-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLF%HKDYLRUDQG
2UJDQL]DWLRQ
&RRSHU')HOWRYLFK15RWK$DQG=ZLFN5³5HODWLYHYHUVXVDEVROXWHVSHHG
RIDGMXVWPHQWLQVWUDWHJLFHQYLURQPHQWUHVSRQGHUEHKDYLRULQXOWLPDWXPJDPH:RUNLQJ
3DSHU8QLYHUVLW\RI&DOLIRUQLD6DQ'LHJR
(UHY,%HUHE\0H\HU<DQG5RWK$7KHHIIHFWRIDGGLQJFRQVWDQWWRDOO
SD\RIIVH[SHULPHQWDOLQYHVWLJDWLRQDQGLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUUHLQIRUFHPHQWOHDUQLQJPRGHOV
:RUNLQJ3DSHU7HFKQLRQ
(UHY,DQG5DSRSRUW$³3URYLVLRQRIVWHSOHYHOSXEOLFJRRGV7KHVHTXHQWLDO
FRQWULEXWLRQPHFKDQLVP´-RXUQDORI&RQIOLFW5HVROXWLRQ
(UHY,DQG5RWK$(3UHGLFWLQJKRZSHRSOHSOD\JDPHVUHLQIRUFHPHQW
OHDUQLQJLQH[SHULPHQWDOJDPHVZLWKXQLTXHPL[HGVWUDWHJ\HTXLOLEULD$PHULFDQ
(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ
)XGHQEHUJ'DQG/HYLQH'.7KHWKHRU\RIOHDUQLQJLQJDPHV 0,7SUHVV
*RHUHHDQG+ROW6WRFKDVWLFJDPHWKHRU\IRUSOD\LQJJDPHV1RWMXVWIRUGRLQJ
WKHRU\3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH1DWLRQDO$FDGHP\RI6FLHQFHV
0F.HOYH\5 'DQG3DOIUH\75$QH[SHULPHQWDOVWXG\RIWKH&HQWLSHGH
JDPH(FRQRPHWULFD
0RRNKHUMHH'DQG6RSKHU%/HDUQLQJDQGGHFLVLRQFRVWVLQH[SHULPHQWDO
FRQVWDQWVXPJDPHV*DPHVDQG(FRQRPLF%HKDYLRU
1DJHO58QUDYHOLQJLQJXHVVLQJJDPHV$QH[SHULPHQWDOVWXG\$PHULFDQ
(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ
3HUHWV+DQG6RQVLQR'2QFKHDSWDONDQGWKHLPSRVVLELOLW\RI]HURVXP
EHWWLQJ´,QWHUQDWLRQDO*DPH7KHRU\5HYLHZ9RO1X
5DSRSRUW$DQG$PDOGRVV:0L[HGVWUDWHJLHVDQGLWHUDWLYHHOLPLQDWLRQRI
VWURQJO\GRPLQDWHGVWUDWHJLHV$QH[SHULPHQWDOLQYHVWLJDWLRQRIVWDWHVRINQRZOHGJH
-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLF%HKDYLRUDQG2UJDQL]DWLRQ
5RWK$((UHY,6ORQLP5/DQG%DUURQ*³/HDUQLQJDQGHTXLOLEULXPDV
XVHIXODSSUR[LPDWLRQ$FFXUDF\RISUHGLFWLRQRQUDQGRPO\VHOHFWHGFRQVWDQWVXPJDPHV
+DUYDUG8QLYHUVLW\
5RWK$(DQG0DORXI0:.*DPHWKHRUHWLFPRGHOVDQGWKHUROHRI
LQIRUPDWLRQLQEDUJDLQLQJ3V\FKRORJLFDO5HYLHZ
6DULQ5DQG9DKLG)3UHGLFWLQJKRZSHRSOHSOD\JDPHV$SURFHGXUDOO\
UDWLRQDOPRGHORIFKRLFHPLPHR7H[DV$08QLYHUVLW\
6HEHQLXV-DQG*HDQDNRSORV-³'RQ¶W EHWRQLW´-RXUQDORIWKH$PHULFDQ
6WDWLVWLFDO$VVRFLDWLRQ 6HOWHQ5³$[LRPDWLFFKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRIWKHTXDGUDWLFVFRULQJUXOH´PLPHR
8QLYHUVLW\RI%RQQ
6¡YLN<³6WUHQJWKRIGRPLQDQFHDQGGHSWKRIUHDVRQLQJ´0LPHR8QLYHUVLW\
RI2VOR
6RQVLQR'³6HEHQLXVDQG*HDQDNRSORVPRGHOZLWKQRLVH´ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
-RXUQDORI*DPH7KHRU\
6WDKO'2³7KHHYROXWLRQRIVPDUWQ SOD\HUV´*DPHVDQG(FRQRPLF%HKDYLRU
6WDKO'2%RXQGHGO\UDWLRQDOUXOHOHDUQLQJLQD*XHVVLQJJDPH*DPHVDQG
(FRQRPLF%HKDYLRU
6WDKO'2DQG:LOVRQ32QSOD\HUVPRGHOVRIRWKHUSOD\HUVWKHRU\DQG
H[SHULPHQWDOHYLGHQFH*DPHVDQG(FRQRPLF%HKDYLRU
7DQJ)DQJ)DQJ$QWLFLSDWRU\OHDUQLQJLQWZRSHUVRQJDPHVVRPHH[SHULPHQWDO
UHVXOWV-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLF%HKDYLRUDQG2UJDQL]DWLRQ
$SSHQGL[,QVWUXFWLRQV
$,QVWUXFWLRQIRU,QIRUPHG6XEMHFWVLQ([SHULPHQW
,QWKHQH[WKRXU\RXZLOO SDUWLFLSDWHLQDQH[SHULPHQWVLPXODWLQJDVLPSOHVWRFNPDUNHW
DFWLYLW\ZLWKWZRSDUWLFLSDQWV7KHH[SHULPHQWLVVXEGLYLGHGLQWRWZRSDUWVZLWKPXOWLSOH
URXQGV LQ HDFK SDUW ,Q HDFK URXQG \RX KDYH WR GHFLGH ZKHWKHU \RX DUH LQWHUHVWHG LQ
HQWHULQJWKHPDUNHWRUQRW,I\RXGHFLGHWRHQWHU\RXVKRXOGSUHVVWKH<!NH\,I\RX
GHFLGHQRWWRHQWHU\RXVKRXOGSUHVVWKH1!NH\
7KHVFUHHQGLVSOD\KDVWKUHHZLQGRZV
7KH ORZHU ZLQGRZ GLVSOD\V LQ HDFK URXQG RI WKH H[SHULPHQW D VLJQDO RQH OHWWHU WZR
OHWWHUVRUWKUHHOHWWHUVWKDWJLYHV\RXSDUWLDOLQIRUPDWLRQUHJDUGLQJWKHVWDWHRIWKHPDUNHW
7KH VLJQDO VKRXOG EH FRQVLGHUHG D KLQW FRQFHUQLQJ WKH UHDOL]HG VWDWH RI WKH PDUNHW
$ORQJWKHH[SHULPHQW\RXVKRXOGWU\DQGXQGHUVWDQGWKHPHDQLQJRIWKHVHVLJQDOV7KH
DFWXDO VWDWH RI WKH PDUNHW LV GHVFULEHG E\ WKH OHWWHUV $ % & DQG ' 7KH SUREDELOLW\ RI
GUDZLQJHDFKRIWKHVHVWDWHVLVHTXDODQGLQGHSHQGHQWDFURVVURXQGV
7KHPLGGOHZLQGRZGLVSOD\V\RXUSURILWRUORVVLQSRLQWVIRUWKHFXUUHQWURXQG,I\RX
KDYHGHFLGHGQRWWRHQWHUWUDGLQJZLOOQRWWDNHSODFHDQG\RXUSURILWIRUWKHURXQGZLOOEH
RQH SRLQW ,I \RX GHFLGH WR HQWHU EXW WKH RWKHU SOD\HU KDV GHFLGHG QRW WR HQWHU DJDLQ
WUDGLQJZLOOQRWWDNHSODFHDQG\RXUSURILWZLOOEHRQHSRLQW2QO\LIERWKSOD\HUVGHFLGHWR
HQWHUWUDGLQJZLOOWDNHSODFH<RXUUHDOL]HGSURILWRUORVVZLOOWKHQEHGHWHUPLQHGE\WKH
IROORZLQJUXOH KHUHZHKDYHLQFOXGHGDVNHWFKRIJDPH6DVSURYLGHGLQ )LJXUH
7KH ER[HV LQ WKH ILJXUH UHSUHVHQW WKH LQIRUPDWLRQVLJQDOV REVHUYHG E\ WKH SOD\HUV )RU
LQVWDQFHZKHQWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHRIQDWXUHLV%SOD\HUZLOOUHFHLYHLQWKHORZHUZLQGRZ
RIWKHGLVSOD\WKHVLJQDO$%ZKLOHSOD\HUZLOOJHWWKHVLJQDO%&:KHQWKHUHDOL]HG
VWDWHRIQDWXUHLV$SOD\HUZLOOREVHUYHWKHVLJQDO$%ZKLOHSOD\HUZLOOREVHUYHWKH
VLJQDO$
7KHXSSHUZLQGRZGLVSOD\VWKHDFFXPXODWHGVFRUH
<RXVWDUWHDFKSDUWRIWKHH[SHULPHQWZLWKSRLQWV
<RXZLOOUHFHLYH6KHNHOIRUSDUWLFLSDWLQJLQWKHH[SHULPHQWEXW\RXPD\JDLQDERQXV
RI DQ DGGLWLRQDO 6KHNHO FRQWLQJHQW RQ \RXU SHUIRUPDQFH <RXU FKDQFHV WR ZLQ WKH
DGGLWLRQDOERQXVLQFUHDVHZLWK\RXUILQDOFXPXODWLYHVFRUHDWWKHHQGRIWKHH[SHULPHQW
,Q SDUW % RI WKH H[SHULPHQW \RX ZLOO EH DVNHG WR SHUIRUP WKH VDPH WDVN IRU D GLIIHUHQW
VWRFNH[FKDQJHPDUNHW7KHUHZLOOEHDVKRUWEUHDNEHWZHHQSDUWV
<RXDUHSOD\HU
3DUW%
,QWKLVSDUW\RXDUHDVNHGWRUHSHDWWKHSUHYLRXVWDVNIRUDGLIIHUHQWPDUNHW7KHUHDOL]HG
VWDWHRIWKHPDUNHWFDQQRZEH$%&'()*RU+
<RXVWDUWWKLVSDUWRIWKHH[SHULPHQWZLWKSRLQWVKRZHYHU\RXUFKDQFHVRIZLQQLQJ
WKH,6DGGLWLRQDOERQXVZLOOEHGHWHUPLQHGE\\RXUWRWDOILQDOVFRUHIRUWKHWZRSDUWV
RIH[SHULPHQW
7KHSD\RIIUXOHIRUWKLVSDUWLVDVIROORZVVHHJDPH/)LJXUH
7KHER[HVLQWKHILJXUHUHSUHVHQWDJDLQWKHLQIRUPDWLRQVLJQDOVREVHUYHGE\WKHSOD\HUV
)RULQVWDQFHZKHQWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHRIQDWXUHLV)SOD\HUZLOOREVHUYHWKHVLJQDO+)
ZKLOHSOD\HUZLOOREVHUYHWKHVLJQDO'():KHQWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHRIQDWXUHLV$ SOD\HU
ZLOOREVHUYHWKHVLJQDO$%ZKLOHSOD\HUZLOOREVHUYH$
<RXDUHSOD\HU
$,QVWUXFWLRQIRU8QLQIRUPHG6XEMHFWVLQ([SHULPHQW
>7KHLQVWUXFWLRQVIRUWKLVWUHDWPHQWZHUHLGHQWLFDOIRUWKRVHXVHGIRUWKHLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWV
H[FHSW IRU WKH SDUDJUDSKDQGILJXUH GHVFULELQJWKHJDPH7KHLQIRUPDWLRQSURYLGHGLQ
WKLVWUHDWPHQWZDV@
,I\RXKDYHGHFLGHGQRWWRHQWHUWUDGLQJZLOOQRWWDNHSODFHDQG\RXUSURILWIRUWKHURXQG
ZLOO EH RQH SRLQW ,I \RX GHFLGH WR HQWHU EXW WKH RWKHU SOD\HU KDV GHFLGHG QRW WR HQWHU
DJDLQWUDGLQJZLOOQRWWDNHSODFHDQG\RXUSURILWZLOOEHRQHSRLQW2QO\LIERWKSOD\HUV
GHFLGH WR HQWHU WUDGLQJ ZLOO WDNH SODFH <RXU UHDOL]HG SURILW RU ORVV ZLOO WKHQ EH
GHWHUPLQHGE\VRPHIL[HGSD\RIIUXOHWKDWDVVLJQVDJLYHQSD\RIIWRHDFKVWDWHRIQDWXUH
3DUW%
,QWKLVSDUW\RXDUHDVNHGWRUHSHDWWKHSUHYLRXVWDVNIRUDGLIIHUHQWPDUNHW7KHUHDOL]HG
VWDWHRIWKHPDUNHWFDQQRZEH$%&'()*RU+
$,QVWUXFWLRQIRU,QIRUPHG6XEMHFWVLQ([SHULPHQW 6KRUW*DPH3DUW$
<RXDUHJLYHQWKHSRVVLELOLW\WRSDUWLFLSDWHLQDEHWWLQJJDPHDVIROORZV
7KHJDPHKDVWZRSOD\HUV2QHDQG7ZR
7KHEHWKDVIRXUSRVVLEOHRXWFRPHVUHSUHVHQWHGE\OHWWHUV$%&DQG'
7KHSUREDELOLW\RIHDFKRXWFRPHLV
7KHSD\RIIWRERWKSOD\HUVZLOOEHGHWHUPLQHGE\WKHIROORZLQJUXOH
,IWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV$3OD\HUZLOOSD\3OD\HUSRLQWV
,IWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV%3OD\HUZLOOSD\3OD\HUSRLQWV
,IWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV&3OD\HUZLOOSD\3OD\HUSRLQWV
,IWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV$3OD\HUZLOOSD\3OD\HUSRLQWV
<RXKDYHWRGHFLGHZKHWKHU\RXZRXOGZDQWWRSDUWLFLSDWHLQWKHEHWZLWKRXWNQRZLQJWKH
DFWXDO UHDOL]HG VWDWH <HW WKH EHW
V RUJDQL]HUV ZLOO JLYH \RX VRPH SDUWLDO LQIRUPDWLRQ
VLJQDOFRQFHUQLQJ WKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHEHIRUH\RXUGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ
3OD\HU2QHZLOOUHFHLYHWKHVLJQDO$% ZKHQWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV$RU%+HZLOOJHWWKH
VLJQDO &' ZKHQWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV&RU'
3OD\HU7ZRZLOOUHFHLYHWKHVLJQDO$ZKHQWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV$WKHVLJQDO%& ZKHQWKH
UHDOL]HGVWDWHLV%RU&DQGWKHVLJQDO'ZKHQWKHUHDOL]HGVWDWHLV'
7KHVWUXFWXUHRIWKHEHWLVVXPPDUL]HGLQWKHQH[WILJXUH
VHH)LJXUH
7KHEHWV
SD\RIIVZLOOEHDFWXDOO\SOD\HGRQO\LIERWKSOD\HUV2QHDQG7ZRZLOOGHFLGH
WRDFFHSWWKHEHW,IRQHRIWKHSOD\HUVZLOOGHFLGHWRUHMHFWWKHEHWZLOOQRWWDNHSODFHDQG
HDFKSOD\HUZLOOJHWDSD\RIIRI
7KHH[SHULPHQWLQFOXGHVURXQGV,QHDFKURXQGRIWKHH[SHULPHQW\RXKDYHWRGHFLGH
ZKHWKHU\RXZRXOGOLNHWR WDNHWKHEHWRUQRW,I\RXGHFLGHGWRDFFHSWWKHEHW\RXVKRXOG
SUHVV<2WKHUZLVH\RXVKRXOGSUHVV1
$IWHUHDFKURXQGRIWKHH[SHULPHQW\RXZLOOREVHUYHDIHHGEDFNZLQGRZGLVFORVLQJWKH
IROORZLQJLQIRUPDWLRQ
<RXUUHVSRQVH
7KHRWKHUSOD\HU
VUHVSRQVH
7KHUHDOL]HGVWDWH
<RXUSD\RIIIRUWKDWURXQG
<RXUWRWDODFFXPXODWHGVFRUH
7RH[LWWKHIHHGEDFNZLQGRZDQGPRYHWRWKHQH[WWULDO\RXVKRXOGSUHVV
<RXVWDUWWKHH[SHULPHQWZLWKSRLQWV
<RXZLOOUHFHLYH6KHNHOIRUSDUWLFLSDWLQJLQWKHH[SHULPHQWEXW\RXPD\JDLQDERQXV
RI DQ DGGLWLRQDO 6KHNHO FRQWLQJHQW RQ \RXU SHUIRUPDQFH <RXU FKDQFHV WR ZLQ WKH
DGGLWLRQDOERQXVLQFUHDVHZLWK\RXUILQDOFXPXODWLYHVFRUHDWWKHHQGRIWKHH[SHULPHQW
)LJXUH7KH%DVLF%HWWLQJ*DPHV
$JHQW2QH
$JHQW7ZR
$
%
*DPH6
&
'
*DPH/
$JHQW2QH
$JHQW7ZR
$
%
&
'
(
)
*
)LJXUHD$YHUDJH%HWWLQJ5DWHV([SHULPHQW
*DPH6
6/
/6
6/
/6
*DPH/
XQLQIRUPHG
LQIRUPHG
([SHULPHQWDOGDWD
6LPXODWLRQV
+
)LJXUHE$YHUDJH,QGLYLGXDO(QWU\5DWHV ([SHULPHQW
6/
$%
/6
6/
/6
&'
$
%&
'
XQLQIRUPHG
LQIRUPHG
([SHULPHQWDOGDWD
6LPXODWLRQV
7DEOH,QGLYLGXDO,QLWLDO(QWU\5DWHVLQ(DFK,QIRUPDWLRQ6HW
,QIRUPDWLRQVHW
/HYHOVUHTXLUHGIRUHOLPLQDWLRQ
([SGHVLJQ *DPH 2UGHU
EDVLF
6
6/
6
/6
/
6/
/
/6
6
6/
6
/6
/
6/
/
/6
6¶
6
6´
6
0HDQ
'
$%
,QIRUPHGVXEMHFWV
%&
&' '()
(*
)*
$
)+
8QLQIRUPHGVXEMHFWV
7DEOH *DLQDQG/RVVLQ3RLQWVWRHDFK3OD\HU
*DPH6
,QIRUPHG
8QLQIRUPHG
*DPH/
,QIRUPHG
8QLQIRUPHG
3OD\HU2QH
3OD\HU7ZR
7KHILJXUHVLQWKHWDEOHUHSUHVHQWWKHDYHUDJHRIWKHIROORZLQJPHDVXUHRIJDLQORVVSHUSOD\HU>6FRUHDWWKHHQGRI
WKHH[SHULPHQW 6FRUHDWWKHEHJLQQLQJ@>6FRUHDWWKHEHJLQQLQJ@
7DEOH$YHUDJH%HWWLQJ5DWHVLQ%ORFNVRI5RXQGVDWWKH6KRUW*DPH
D7KH&DVHRI,QIRUPHG6XEMHFWV
'HVLJQ?%ORFN
%ORFN
%ORFN
%ORFN
%ORFN
%ORFN
$YHUDJH
'HVLJQ
'HVLJQ
'HVLJQ
'HVLJQ
'HVLJQ
'HVLJQ
E7KH&DVHRI8QLQIRUPHG6XEMHFWV
'HVLJQ? %ORFN
%ORFN
%ORFN
%ORFN
%ORFN
%ORFN
$YHUDJH
'HVLJQ
'HVLJQ
'HVLJQ
7DEOH$YHUDJH%HWWLQJ5DWHVLQ%ORFNVRI5RXQGVDWWKH/RQJ*DPH
D7KH&DVHRI,QIRUPHG6XEMHFWV
'HVLJQ? %ORFN
%ORFN
%ORFN
%ORFN
%ORFN
%ORFN
$YHUDJH
'HVLJQ
'HVLJQ
E7KH&DVHRI8QLQIRUPHG6XEMHFWV
'HVLJQ? %ORFN
%ORFN
%ORFN
%ORFN
%ORFN
%ORFN
$YHUDJH
'HVLJQ
'HVLJQ
7DEOH/HYHOQ6WUDWHJLHVIRU*DPHV6DQG/
6HW
6WUDWHJ\
3OD\HU,,
$%
&'
*DPH6
3OD\HU,,
$
%&
3OD\HU,
'
$%
*DPH/
&'
(*
)+
3OD\HU,,
$
%&
'()
*+
/HYHO
/HYHO
/HYHO
/HYHO
/HYHO
/HYHO
/HYHO
/HYHO
/HYHO
:HXVHIRU%HWDQGIRU1RWEHW
7DEOH&RPSDULVRQRIDOWHUQDWLYHPRGHOVRIWKHDGDSWDWLRQSURFHVV
0RGHO
5/ZLWKQRUPDOL]DWLRQ
5/QRQRUPDOL]DWLRQ
6)3ZLWKQRUPDOL]DWLRQ
6)3QRQRUPDOL]DWLRQ
,QLWLDOV
*HQHUDO
*HQHUDO
7DVN6SHFLILF
8QLIRUP
*HQHUDO
*HQHUDO
*HQHUDO
(VWLPDWHGSDUDPHWHUV
1 O 7DVNVSHFLILF
1 O 1 O 1 O 1 O 1 O 06'