ClimTrans2050
Expert Workshop
ClimTrans2050
24 April 2015
WIFO, Arsenal Object 20, 1030 Vienna
Großer Sitzungssaal
10:30-15:00
Objective of the workshop
 Presentation of the project framework
 Involvement of experts with respect to


experience on modeling long-term transformation
processes
Necessary elements and content of a research plan for an
open source model
 Exchange platform on modeling expertise –
presentation of web-based knowledge
platform
Agenda
10:30-10:45
Welcome and presentation of the project
10:45-11:50
Presentation of the work packages (10-15"
each)
11:50-12:00
Presentation of the web-based knowledge
platform
12:00-12:30
Lunch break
12:30-13:30
Table discussions (4 groups)
13:30-14:10
Presentation of result of table discussions
14:10-15:00
Discussion in plenum
15:00
End of workshop
ClimTrans2050
Why should we rethink
modelling energy and climate economics?
Aspects of a research plan
Angela Köppl
Stefan Schleicher
24 April 2015
ClimTrans2050
The need for a
long run transition

Policy analyses often call for a long run transition

Tools to capture these processes not sufficient

Application of existing economic models to the very long
run faces limitations

Pindyck (2013, 2015)

Rosen (2015)

State of EU Environment (2015)
ClimTrans2050
Challenges for modelling
and issues of interest

Assumptions on prices and economic development

Explicit treatment of energy services

Interaction between energy services and energy flows
with stocks

Breakthrough technologies and changes in the capital
stock

Incremental vs. radical path changes

Detailed structure of the energy system
ClimTrans2050

Presumed
causalities between
economic
activities/prices and
energy flows
GDP
Energy System

Typically poor
representation of
technologies,
behaviour
Energy
Prices
“Black Box”
Energy Flows
The conventional
"black box" approach
ClimTrans2050

A more differentiated look
at the energy system
Modelling the
whole energy chain
Energy System
Energy
Services

Starting from
welfare relevant
energy services
Cascade Structure
Useful
Energy
Final
Energy
Consum
.
Primary
Energy
Supply
ClimTrans2050
The ClimTrans2050 project

Development of an operational framework and
research plan for an open source model

The project team

WIFO: Claudia Kettner, Angela Köppl, Stefan Schleicher,
Christian Hofer

WegenerCenter: Gabriel Bachner, Thomas Schinko,
Karl Steininger

UBA: Jürgen Schneider, Ilse Schindler, Thomas Krutzler,
Thomas Gallauner

IIASA: Matthias Jonas, Żebrowski Piotr
The structure of
ClimTrans2050
ClimTrans2050
Task 4
Task 1
Task 2
Task 3
Evaluating
current
modeling
practices
Designing a
research plan
for an open
source model
Identifying
knowledge
gaps and
steps towards
an operational
model
Surveying the
current generation
of modeling tools as
to their suitability for
long-term climate
policy design by
checking e.g.
• time horizon
• conceptual
assumptions
• treatment of
technologies
Transgressing
current modeling
practices by
developing a
structure for an
open source tool
that focuses on
• an operational
research plan
• 2050 transition
strategies
• the global context
The requirements
for a full-scale
modeling tool are
identified by
emphasizing issues
of
• knowledge gaps
• institutional and
behavioral aspects
• different policy
mechanism
designs
Interaction with
the research
community
and project
management
All tasks will involve a
close interaction with
the research
community and policy
stakeholders by
• offering a web-based
knowledge platform
• usable model
components
• feedback workshops
ClimTrans2050
The potential merits of
ClimTrans2050

Developing a research plan for modelling activities in view
of a 2050 horizon

An open source approach should generate synergies
within the research community

National emission target paths consistently embedded
into global context

Providing a web-based platform for exchanging and
disseminating relevant information with the research
community