Topic 5: Static Games Cournot Competition EC 3322 Semester I – 2008/2009 Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 1 Introduction A monopoly does not have to worry about how rivals will react to its action simply because there are no rivals. A competitive firm potentiall faces many rivals, but the firm and its rivals are price takers also no need to worry about rivals’ actions. An oligopolist operating in a market with few competitors needs to anticipate rivals’ actions/ strategies (e.g. prices, outputs, advertising, etc), as these actions are going to affect its profit. The oligopolist needs to choose an appropriate response to those actions similarly, rivals also need to anticipate the firm’s response and act accordingly interactive setting. Game theory is an appropriate tool to analyze strategic actions in such an interactive setting important assumption: firms (or firms’ managers) are rational decision makers. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 2 Introduction … Consider the following story (taken from Dixit and Skeath (1999), Games of Strategy) …”There were two friends taking Chemistry at Duke. Both had done pretty well on all of the quizzes, the labs, and the midterm, so that going to the final they had a solid A. They were so confident that the weekend before the final exam they decided to go to a party at the University of Virginia. The party was so good that they overslept all day Sunday, and got back too late to study for the Chemistry final that was scheduled for Monday morning. Rather than take the final unprepared, they went to the professor with a sob story. They said they had gone to the University of Virginia and had planned to come back in good time to study for the final but had had a flat tire on the way back. Because they did not have a spare, they had spent most of the night looking for help. Now they were too tired, so could they please have a make-up final the next day? The two studied all of Monday evening and came well prepared on Tuesday morning. The professor placed them in separate rooms and handed the test to each. Each of them wrote a good answer, and greatly relieved, but … when they turned to the last page. It had just one question, worth 90 points. It was: “Which tire?”…. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 3 Introduction … Why are Professors So Mean (taken from Dixit and Skeath (1999), Games of Strategy) Many professors have an inflexible rule not to accept late submission of problem sets of term papers. Students think the professors must be really hard heartened to behave this way. However, the true strategic reason is often exactly the opposite. Most professors are kindhearted , and would like to give their students every reasonable break and accept any reasonable excuse. The trouble lies in judging what is reasonable. It is hard to distinguish between similar excuses and almost impossible to verify the truth. The professor knows that on each occasion he will end up by giving the student the benefit of the doubt. But the professor also knows that this is a slippery slope, As the students come to know that the professor is a soft touch, they will procrastinate more and produce even flimsier excuses. Deadline will cease to mean anything. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 4 Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 5 Introduction … Non-cooperative game theory vs. cooperative game theory. The former refers to a setting in which each individual firm (a player) behave noncooperatively towards others (rivals players). The latter refers to a setting in which a group of firms cooperate by forming a coalition. We focus on non-cooperative game theory. Different in timing of actions: simultaneous vs. sequential move games. Different in the nature of information: complete vs. incomplete information. Oligopoly theory no single unified theory, unlike theory of monopoly and theory of perfect competition theoretical predictions depend on the game theoretical tools chosen. Need a concept of equilibrium to characterize the chosen optimal strategies. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 6 Introduction … A ‘game’ consists of: A set of players (e.g. 2 firms (duopoly)) A set of feasible strategies (e.g. prices, quantities, etc) for all players A set of payoffs (e.g. profits) for each player from all combinations of strategies chosen by players. Equilibrium concept first formalized by John Nash no player (firm) wants to unilaterally change its chosen strategy given that no other player (firm) change its strategy. Equilibrium may not be ‘nice’ players (firms) can do better if they can cooperate, but cooperation may be difficult to enforced (not credible) or illegal. Finding an equilibrium: one way is by elimination of all (strictly) dominated strategies, i.e. strategies that will never be chosen by players the elimination process should lead us to the dominant strategy. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 7 Introduction … Ways of representing a Game: Extensive Form Representation (Game Tree) Normal Form Representation In $ millions Extensive Form H H 1,1 H 2 H 1 L L In $ millions H’ 0,2 2,0 2 L’ L ½, ½ sequential move Yohanes E. Riyanto 2 1 L 1,1 H 0,2 2,0 2 L ½, ½ simultaneous move EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 8 Introduction … Definition: A strategy is a complete contingent plan (a full specification of a player’s behavior at each of his/ her decision points) for a player in the game. Normal Form In millions H H L H’ HH’ 1,1 2,0 HL’ 1,1 ½ ,½ LH’ 0,2 2,0 LL’ 0,2 ½,½ 1,1 0,2 2,0 Player 2 2 L’ ½, ½ extensive form - sequential move Yohanes E. Riyanto L 2 1 L H Player 1 EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) normal form - sequential move 9 Introduction … In millions H H L L H 0,2 2,0 2 L 1/2 , 1/2 2,0 0,2 1,1 Player 1 H ½, ½ extensive form - simultaneous move Yohanes E. Riyanto H 2 1 L L 1,1 Player 2 EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) normal form - simultaneous move 10 Introduction … When players can choose infinite number of actions, instead of only 2 actions e.g. quantities, advertising expenditures, prices, etc. 1 a exit 1-a,0 1-a,0 2 stay in Yohanes E. Riyanto exit 1 2 sequential move a stay in a-a2, ¼ - a/2 a-a2, ¼ - a/2 simultaneous move EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 11 Example … Two airline companies, e.g. SIA and Qantas offering a daily flight from Singapore to Sydney. Assume that they already have set a price for the flight, but the departure time is still undecided the departure time is the strategy choice in this game. 70% of consumers prefer evening departure while 30% prefer morning departure. If both airlines choose the same departure time, they share the market share equally. Payoffs to the airlines are determined by the market share obtained. Both airlines choose the departure time simultaneously we can represent the payoffs in a matrix firm. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 12 Example … What is the equilibrium for this The Pay-Off Matrix game? The left-hand Qantas number is the pay-off to Morning Evening SIA Morning (15, 15) (30, 70) (70, 30) The right-hand number is the (35, 35) pay-off to Qantas SIA Evening Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 13 Example … If Qantas If Qantas chooses an evening chooses a morning The Pay-Off Matrix departure, SIAdeparture, The morning departure SIA The morning departure will also choose willis choose a dominated is also a dominated evening evening strategy for SIA strategy for Qantas Qantas Both airlines choose an Morning Evening evening departure Morning (15, 15) (30, 70) SIA Evening Yohanes E. Riyanto (70, 30) EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) (35, 35) 14 Example … Suppose now that SIA has a frequent flyer program. Thus, when both airlines choose the same departure times, SIA will obtain 60% of market share. This will change the payoff matrix. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 15 Example … If SIA The Pay-Off Matrix chooses a morning However, a departure, Qantas But if SIAhas no morning departure Qantas will choose Qantas chooses an evening is still a dominated dominated strategy evening departure, Qantas strategy for SIA Qantas knows willand choose this so Morning Evening morning chooses a morning departure Morning (18, 12) (30, 70) SIA Evening Yohanes E. Riyanto (70, (70,30) 30) EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) (42, 28) 16 Example … What if there are no dominated strategies? We need to use the Nash Equilibrium concept. To show this consider a modified version of our airlines game instead of choosing departure times, firms choose prices For simplicity, consider only two possible price levels. Settings: There are 60 consumers with a reservation price of $500 for the flight, and another 120 consumers with the lower reservation price of $220. Price discrimination is not possible (perhaps for regulatory reasons or because the airlines don’t know the passenger types). Costs are $200 per passenger no matter when the plane leaves. airlines must choose between a price of $500 and a price of $220 If equal prices are charged the passengers are evenly shared. The low price airline gets all passengers. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 17 Example If SIA prices high TheQantas Pay-Offlow Matrix If both price high and then both get 30 then Qantas gets passengers. If SIA prices Profit low all 180 passengers. Qantas per andpassenger Qantas high isProfit If both low perprice passenger then$300 SIA gets they each get 90 is $20 PH = $500 PL = $220 all 180 passengers. passengers. Profit per passenger Profit per passenger is $20 $20 P = $500 is($9000,$9000) ($0, $3600) H SIA PL = $220 Yohanes E. Riyanto ($3600, $0) EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) ($1800, $1800) 18 Nash Equilibrium (PH, PH) is a Nash (PL, PL) is a Nash There is no simple equilibrium. The Pay-Off Matrix There are two(PNash equilibrium. , P ) cannot be H L way to choose If both aretopricing equilibria thisa version If between both are pricing Nash equilibrium. and familiarity these equilibria highCustom thenofneither wants the game low then neither wants If Qantas prices Qantas might lead both to to“Regret” change to change low then SIA should might (PL, PHprice ) cannot be high also price low both to a Nashcause equilibrium. PH = $500 PL = $220 price low If Qantas prices high then SIA should also pricePhigh = $500 ($9000, ($9000,$9000) ($0, $3600) $9000) H SIA PL = $220 Yohanes E. Riyanto ($3600, $0) EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) ($1800, $1800) 19 Nash Equilibrium Another very common game prisoner’s dilemma game illustrates that the resulting NE outcome may be ‘inefficient’. criminal 2 Confess Don’t Confess Confess criminal 1 (6,6) (1,10) Don’t confess (10,1) (3,3) So the only Nash equilibrium for this game is (C,C), even though (D,D) gives both 1 and 2 better jail terms. The only Nash equilibrium is inefficient. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 20 Nash Equilibrium Consider the following price game between Firm A and Firm B Firm B H Firm A H (100, 100) L (140, 25) L (25, 140) (80, 80) Had the firms been able to cooperate, they would have been able to obtain higher payoffs. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 21 Mathematical Presentation of Nash Eq. Suppose that there are 2 firms, 1 and 2 it can be generalized to n firms. The profit of each firm is denoted by i i si , s j with i 1, 2, j i. Si , i 1, 2, is the set of all feasible strategies from which i can choose. Thus, si and s j are the pair of strategies chosen by players i and j from the set of feasible strategies. Then, a pair of strategies si* , s*j is a Nash equilibrium if, for each firm i: i si* , s*j i si , s*j for all si S i , i 1,2, j i. Thus, for a strategy combination to be a Nash eq., the strategy si* must be firm i’s best response to firm j’s strategy, sj* , and conversely sj* must be firm j’s best response to strategy si*. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 22 Mathematical Presentation of Nash Eq. Example: i is firm i’s profit and si , s j are firms i and j’s quantities (outputs). If the profit function is continuous, concave and differentiable, we can solve for the optimal strategy si* by solving the first-order condition for the max. problem: i si , s j si (1) Similarly firm j will also choose its strategy optimally: j si , s j s j then solve for si* s j 0 0 then solve for s*j si (2) * * Finally the pair of Nash eq. outputs si , s j can be obtained by solving the * * system of equation (1) and (2) simultaneously. To guarantee that si , s j are the maximands we have to check for the second order condition for profit maximization. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 23 Oligopoly Models There are three dominant oligopoly models Cournot Bertrand Stackelberg They are distinguished by the decision variable that firms choose the timing of the underlying game We will start first with Cournot Model. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 24 The Cournot Model Consider the case of duopoly (2 competing firms) and there are no entry.. Firms produce homogenous (identical) product with the market demand for the product: P A BQ A B q1 q2 q1 quantity of firm 1 q2 quantity of firm 2 Marginal cost for each firm is constant at c per unit of output. Assume that A>c. To get the demand curve for one of the firms we treat the output of the other firm as constant. So for firm 2, demand is P A Bq1 Bq2 It can be depicted graphically as follows. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 25 The Cournot Model P = (A - Bq1) - Bq2 The profit-maximizing choice of output by firm 2 depends upon the output of firm 1 Marginal revenue for Solve this firm 2 is TR2 MR2 = = (A -for Bq1)output - 2Bq2 q2 q MR2 = MC A - Bq1 - 2Bq2 = c Yohanes E. Riyanto If the output of firm 1 is increased the demand curve for firm 2 moves to the left $ A - Bq1 A - Bq’1 Demand c 2 MC MR2 q*2 Quantity q*2 = (A - c)/2B - q1/2 EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 26 The Cournot Model We have q*2 A c q1 2B 2 this is the best response function for firm 2 (reaction function for firm 2). It gives firm 2’s profit-maximizing choice of output for any choice of output by firm 1. In a similar fashion, we can also derive the reaction function for firm 1. q1* A c q2 2B 2 Cournot-Nash equilibrium requires that both firms be on their reaction functions. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 27 The Cournot Model q2 (A-c)/B (A-c)/2B qC2 If firm 2 produces The reaction function The Cournot-Nash (A-c)/B then firm for firm 1 is equilibrium is at 1 will choose to q*1 = (A-c)/2B - q2/2 intersection Firm 1’s reactionthe function produce no output the reaction Ifoffirm 2 produces functions nothing then firmThe reaction function for firm 2 is 1 will produce the C monopoly output q*2 = (A-c)/2B - q1/2 Firm 2’s reaction function (A-c)/2B qC1 (A-c)/2B Yohanes E. Riyanto (A-c)/B EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) q1 28 The Cournot Model q*1 = (A - c)/2B - q*2/2 q2 q*2 = (A - c)/2B - q*1/2 (A-c)/B Firm 1’s reaction function 3q*2/4 = (A - c)/4B q*2 = (A - c)/3B (A-c)/2B (A-c)/3B q*2 = (A - c)/2B - (A - c)/4B + q*2/4 C Firm 2’s reaction function (A-c)/2B (A-c)/B q*1 = (A - c)/3B q1 (A-c)/3B Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 29 The Cournot Model In equilibrium each firm produces q1*c q2*c 2 A c 3B Demand is P=A-BQ, thus price equals to 2 A c A 2c * P A 3B Total output is therefore Q* A c 3 3 Profits of firms 1 and 2 are respectively 1* *2 P* c q1*c P* c q2*c A c 1* *2 2 9B A monopoly will produce max 1M P c q1 A Bq1 c q1 q 1 1M Yohanes E. Riyanto A c 2 q1 M A c 2B 4B EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 30 The Cournot Model Competition between firms leads them to overproduce. The total output produced is higher than in the monopoly case. The duopoly price is lower than the monopoly price. 2 A c A c q1M 3B 2B A 2c Ac P* P m A Bq1 because A c 3 2 It can be verified that, the duopoly output is still lower than the competitive output where P=MC. Ac P MC c c A 2 BQ Q 2B MR The overproduction is essentially due to the inability of firms to credibly commit to cooperate they are in a prisoner’s dilemma kind of situation more on this when we discuss collusion. Q* Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 31 The Cournot Model (Many Firms) Suppose there are N identical firms producing identical products. Total output: Q q1 q2 q3 ... qN Demand is: This denotes output P A BQ A B q1 q2 q3 ... qN of every firm other Consider firm 1, its demand can be expressed as: than firm 1 P A BQ A B q2 q3 ... qN Bq1 Use a simplifying notation: Q1 q2 q3 ... qN So demand for firm 1 is: P A BQ1 Bq1 Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 32 The Cournot Model (Many Firms) If the output of the other firms is increased the demand curve for firm 1 moves to the left $ P = (A - BQ-1) - Bq1 The profit-maximizing choice of output by firm A - BQ-1 1 depends upon the output of the other firms A - BQ’ -1 Marginal revenue for Solve this firm 1 is for output MR1 = (A - BQ-1) - 2Bq q1 1 Demand c MC MR1 q*1 MR1 = MC Quantity A - BQ-1 - 2Bq1 = c q*1 = (A - c)/2B - Q-1/2 Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 33 The Cournot Model (Many Firms) q*1 = (A - c)/2B - Q-1/2 How do we solve this As the number of for q* ? 1 The firms are identical. As the number firms increases output of q*1 = (A - c)/2B - (N - 1)q*1So /2 in equilibrium they firms of each firmincreases falls have identical (1 + (N - 1)/2)q*1 = (A - c)/2Bwillaggregate output As the number ofof outputs As increases the number * q*1(N + 1)/2 = (A - c)/2B Q increases 1 A c price firms 2 profit firms increases N B N 1 q*1 = (A - c)/(N + 1)B tends marginal cost of to each firm falls A Nc c Q* = N(A - c)/(N + 1)B lim N N 1 P* = A - BQ* = (A + Nc)/(N + 1) Q*-1 = (N - 1)q*1 Profit of firm 1 is Π*1 = (P* - c)q*1 = (A - c)2/(N + 1)2B Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 34 Cournot-Nash Equilibrium: Different Costs Marginal costs of firm 1 are c1 and of firm 2 are c2. Demand is P = A - BQ = A - B(q1 + q2) Solve this We have marginal revenue for firm 1 as before. for output q1 MR1 = (A - Bq2) - 2Bq1 A symmetric result Equate to marginal cost: (A - Bqholds c1 for of 2) - 2Bq 1 = output firm 2 q*1 = (A - c1)/2B - q2/2 q*2 = (A - c2)/2B - q1/2 Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 35 Cournot-Nash Equilibrium: Different Costs q2 (A-c1)/B R1 q*1 = (A - c1)/2B - q*2/2 The equilibrium If the marginal output cost of firm 2 q* of firm 2 2 = (A - c2)/2B - q*1/2 What happens increases and of falls its reaction q*2 =to (Athis - c2)/2B - (A - c1)/4B firmcurve 1 equilibrium fallsshifts to when + q* /4 2 costs change? the right 3q*2/4 = (A - 2c2 + c1)/4B q*2 = (A - 2c2 + c1)/3B (A-c2)/2B R2 C q*1 = (A - 2c1 + c2)/3B (A-c1)/2B Yohanes E. Riyanto (A-c2)/B q1 EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 36 Cournot-Nash Equilibrium: Different Costs In equilibrium the firms produce: q1C A 2c1 c2 and q C A 2c2 c1 2 3B Q* q1C q2C 2 A c1 c2 3B 3B The demand is P=A-BQ, thus the eq. price is: 2 A c1 c2 A c1 c2 P* A 3 3 Profits are: 2 2 A 2c1 c2 A 2c2 c1 * * 1 and 2 9B 9B Equilibrium output is less than the competitive level. Output is produced inefficiently the low cost firm should produce all the output. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 37 Concentration and Profitability Consider the case of N firms with different marginal costs. We can use the N-firms analysis with modification. Recall that the demand for firm 1 is P A BQ1 Bq1 So then the demand for firm 1 is : P A BQi Bqi , so the MR can be derived as MR A BQ i 2 Bqi But Q*-i + q*i = Q* Equate MR=MC and denote and Athe- equilibrium BQ* = P*solution by *. A BQ*i 2 Bq*i ci A BQ*i Bq*i Bq*i ci A B Q*i q*i Bq*i ci 0 P P* Bqi* ci 0 P* Bqi* ci Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 38 Concentration and Profitability P* - ci = Bq*i The price-cost margin Divide by P* and multiply the right-hand for eachside firmbyisQ*/Q* determined by its P* - ci BQ* q*i = market share and P* P* Q* demand elasticity But BQ*/P* = 1/ and q*i/Q* = Average si price-cost margin is P c s so: P* - ci = si determined by industry P P* concentration s P s c Extending this we have P c P c s P P P P* - c H = s H P* * * i i * N i 1 * * i N i 1 Yohanes E. Riyanto i * * 2 i N i 1 * i N * i 1 * * i i * * EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 39 Final Remarks So far we consider only “pure” strategy equilibria a player picks the strategy with certainty (prob.=1), e.g. choosing ‘kick the ball to the middle’ in a soccer penalty shootout.. “Mixed” strategies the player uses a probabilistic mixture of the available strategies, e.g. left, middle, right thus randomize the strategies sometimes aims the left, middle or right. Burger King McDonalds Yohanes E. Riyanto Low Price Heavy Advertising Low Price (60, 35) (56, 45) Heavy Advertising (58, 50) (60, 40) EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) No Pure Strategy Eq. 40 Final Remarks Suppose Burger King believes that McDonald will play strategy L with prob pM L and H with prob. pM H 1 pM L . When BK plays L, its expected payoff is: 35 pM L 50 1 pM L If BK plays H, its expected payoff is: 45 pM L 40 1 pM L BK will be indifferent between L and H iff: 35 pM L 50 1 pM L 45 pM L 40 1 pM L 50 15 pM L 40 5 pM L pM L 1 1 and 1 pM L 2 2 Thus, when McDonald plays the optimal mixed strategy eq. with the above prob. distribution then BK will be indifferent between playing L or H. Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 41 Final Remarks Similarly, when BK plays its optimal mixed strategy eq. then McDonald will be indifferent between playing L or H. 60 pBL 56 1 pBL 58 pBL 60 1 pBL 56 4 pBL 60 2 pBL pBL 2 1 and 1 pBL 3 3 Burger King pBL 2 / 3 Low Price pM L 1/ 2 1 p 1/ 3 Heavy BL Advertising Low Price (60, 35) (56, 45) 1 p 1/ 2 Heavy Advertising (58, 50) (60, 40) McDonalds ML Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 42 Next … (Bertrand Price Competition) Yohanes E. Riyanto EC 3322 (Industrial Organization I) 43
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