MELBOURNE RACING SEMINAR
Winform 2014
HOW TO WIN WITH
FAVOURITES
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Understanding The Market
Favourites 5 years to 2005 31% wins at $2.80 -12.3%
Favourites past five years 32% wins at $3.05 -2.7%
Favourites that are Top Two Winform rated horses 38%
First Starter Favourites win 34% of their races
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FAVOURITES THAT LOSE THE MOST MONEY
API 1st or 2nd ranked
Going worse than Dead Loses in buckets
The worse the barrier the better the price
Don’t back horses that are worn out.
Stick to horses early on in their preparation
What Sort of Punter are you?
• $5?? $10??$20??$50??$100 or do they call
you Mr Millions? Want some examples?
• How much will you bet in a year? The
importance of R.O.I Return On Investment.
• Don’t get hung up on percentages. It’s
what’s left in your pocket that counts.
• What’s more important? A Bank of $20,000
making $13989 or Turnover of $250k making
the same amount?
UNDERSTANDING STATISTICS
• ANALYSING DATA BASES.. THE TRAPS
• STATISTICS: ARE THEYTHE RESULT OF WHAT
HAPPENED? BUT WHAT REALLY HAPPENED?
• WAS THE FAVOURITE THE FAVOURITE BECAUSE
OF A LATE SCRATCHING?
• WAS THE FAVOURITE REALLY THE FAVOURITE
WHEN YOU WOULD HAVE PLACED YOUR BET?
• WHAT IS THE FINAL PRICE OF A FAVOURITE, HAS
IT
• A) OPENED SHORT, EASED AND THEN FIRMED?
• B) HAS IT OPENED SHORT AND FIRMED?
• C) DID IT ONLY FIRM BECAUSE THE
COMMENTATORS ON SKYCHANNEL SPRUIKED IT?
• D) DID IT EASE AND STILL WIN
• What is the answer?
False favourites
• Some horses are favourites purely because
of their statistics.
• For Example. Last start winners? But is it up
in Class? Most punters have no idea.
• Did it have a high A.P.I from running in a
higher prize money, but not Class race?
• Has it been a “be on me next time” runner?
The public gets confused with these.
WINNING FAVOURITES
• Avoid Slow or Heavy going
• Stick to Maidens or Open Class. These are
the easiest races to work the form
• Barriers 6 and out assure a better price
• API 3 or more
• Winform rank 1-4
• No more than 30 career starts
• No more than 3 runs from a spell
RESULTS TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT
• The horses we are left with are favourites IN
SPITE OF the relatively adverse statistics.
• Poor Barrier Draw
• Low A.P.I. Rank
• The Positives
• Fresh horse, High Winform Rank.
• Long term 35% wins and 11% + R.O.I
WINFORM GOLD CLUB
• For our Winform Gold Club Members we
only select runners in Group and Listed
races.
• This ensures we are on horses that are
usually set for these prestigious races
• Owners and Trainers are looking for the
Prizemoney, the reputation for the Breeders
and Owners and of course to get rich
WINFORM GOLD CLUB
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NO HEAVY TRACKS
FIELDS 7-18
1100 AND UP
AGE 2-4
UP TO 6 RUNS FROM A SPELL
DISTANCE CHANGE -15% TO +33%
TOP TWO WINFORM AND UP TO 17
STARTS AND QRUN UP TO -1 LENGTH
WINFORM GOLD CLUB
Track Bets Wins Av. Div R.O.I
Good 655 182
$4.38
22%
Dead
412 120
$4.52
32%
Slow
138 38
$6.66
83%
All
1205 340
$4.68
32%
Less than 200 bets per year last six years
No Losing Years (So Far)
HOW GOVERNMENTS
RIPPED OFF THE
PUNTERS-AND STILL DO
• In the 80’s theTAB cited handling1c and 2c coins as the reason
for rounding down dividends to the ten cents below.
• It is a legal rip off that persists to this day and costs up to 9% of
the dividend, particularly place dividends.
• Todays Race Field levies cost the punter and benefit rich
breeders.
• The banning of free bets in some States was NOT to solve
problem gambling but was set to combat competition from out
of State bookmakers. Smart punters make good money with
these.
LAST 97,000 FAVOURITES
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31072 WINNERS @ $2.88 SP or Best Tote
Good Tracks 32.5% won at $3.03
Dead Tracks 32% won at $3.03
Favs with A.P.I.Rank 3+ 29% wins @ $3.45
Barrier 6+ 1st 2nd or 3rd up
Career Starts up to 30 or 1st Starter fav,
Fields of 7-14 Open or Maidens only
• THE TIGHTENING UP OF MARKETS
• THE TREND IS TOWARDS A
SHARPENING OF THE MARKET
• TRY TO FIND THE RIGHT BLEND OF
FORM AND RATINGS TO SELECT AND
BACK THE RUNNERS THAT FIT THE
PROFILE
• FEWER HORSES ARE “Under The Radar”
End of PART ONE
NEW FEATURES IN GTX
• Your choice of RATINGS in a format where
you can make changes of your own
• Now includes Barrier Trials
• Up to the Minute Jockey Tables
• Gear Changes
• Rail Position for past and present meetings
• Fixed Odds and Tote prices live
THE GTX OFFER
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$1249 MONEY BACK TRIAL
INCLUDES TRAKFORM RATINGS
GTX FORMULA
WINFORM RATINGS
RACEDAY SELECTOR
16 RUN FORM EVERY DAY
TEN DAY MONEY BACK RETURN
NEW MONEY FACTORY
• Level Stakes is Loss Chasing
• Money Factory is Leveraging Your Bank
• Money Factory is Ideally Suited to multiple
selections per race or Short Priced
propositions such as Football
• Working With Winform and Money Factory
provides Profitable Results
• It gets you over the Rough Spots
IN THE CLOUD
• Money Factory is now “In The Cloud”
• Instead of being hampered by your
computers limitations, constantly changing
operating systems, the NEW Money Factory
is Internet based and your workouts and
records are saved to the web ready for you
to resume on your Ipad, Tablet,Smart phone,
Mac or PC
WINFORM STRATEGY
• Dutchbet the highly ranked Favourite e.g.
Winform Top Three with the Winform top
rated Horse within the three that qualifies as
below..NO SLOW OR HEAVY TRACKS
• Up to 7YO
• Up to $11 fixed
• If no Qualifier take Favourite alone
• If C Plan bet in races 1300 or more only
MONEY FACTORY LIVE
BETTING
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CPLAN 111 RACES 51 WINS RSR46%
AV DIV $2.23 LEVEL STAKES 2.4%
MONEY FACTORY SAME PERIOD
+15.24% R.O.I AV $200 PER RACE
PROFIT $3855 May3rd to May 25th
Below average result
MONEY FACTORY
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May 6th to 9th Using New Winform Strategy
33% Race Strike Rate @ $2.61 loss 16%
In this Bad Period Profit is 18.98%
$1266 Profit from 21 Bettable Races
MONEY FACTORY COVERS THE ROUGH
PATCHES
POWERPLAY
• Designed to work with average 2 horses per
race with above average dividends
• Use the Top Three Winform Horses
• Up to 7YO
• Up to $11.00 Fixed (minutes to go)
• Fields 8-18
• No Slow or Heavy Tracks
POWERPLAY WINS
• USING THE AMELIA BURTON STRATEGY
ONLY BET UNTIL YOU ARE CLOSE TO
100% E.G. BET PERCENTAGES UP TO
50+%
• BASE STRATEGY FROM “WINNING IN
THE NEW MILLENIUM” APRIL 2014
• 18% winners @ $5.80 $18439 profit $50
Base Bet
CURRENT STRATEGY SEPT
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Saturday September 6th
20 Races 8 wins 40%
Average runners per race 1.65
$50 Base bet returns $1076 in two hours
Or try this.
Only back Winform Top two horses at $4 to
$11 Fixed. RSR 28% Av Div $7+
OTHER STRATEGIES
• Winform Top Two to 100% BUT include
Favourite if in Top Two
• RSR 37%+ Av Div. $5.15
• R.O.I. 13%+
• Using a $15k Bank two week period +$4050
• It also made a level stakes profit with 20%
wins @ $5.15
A BETTER C PLAN
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Favourite in Top Two
1300 metres and up
Dutchbet the top two BUT
If the non fav is 8yo+ OR more than $11
fixed, add the total stake to the Favourite.
• Reduction in Race strike rate 50%+ to 46%+
• Av Div and profit increase result.
WINNING IS EVERYTHING
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A Brand New Book by GR.
Latest stats and Latest strategies
$295 hard copy or $275 E-Book
Attendees get $95 credit off the cost
Released late October
MONEY FACTORY TRIAL
• We will set it up and advise by email.
• A payment plan is required but can be
cancelled at a touch of a button if you don’t
wish to continue beyond the trial period
• All updates are free
SEMINAR NOTES
• All attendees will receive an email with a link
to download the Seminar notes in a few days
time.
Thank you for attending
Winform’s Horse Racing Seminar
2014
Horseracingaustralia.info.