Ontario Mathematics Curriculum (K–6)
Correlation to the Probability Developmental Map
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Emerging Probabilistic Thinking;
Very Simple Experimental
Early Probabilistic Thinking; Simple Experimental
Probabilistic Thinking; More Complex
Experimental; Early Theoretical
Bases probability descriptions, predictions, and decisions on
informal experience and very simple experimental data.
Concept 1
Probability involves the
use of mathematics to
describe the level of
certainty than an event
will occur.
Bases probability descriptions, predictions, and decisions on
previous experience, intuitive ideas about expected probability,
and simple experimental data.
K: collect, display, and interpret data in daily
activities
Phase
Grade 2:3describe probability in everyday
K: use language of probability (e.g., chance, might,
lucky)
Grade 2: describe probability as a measure of the
likelihood that an event will occur, using
mathematical language (i.e., impossible, unlikely, less
likely, equally likely, more likely, certain)
situations and simple games
Grade 1 : describe the likelihood that everyday
events will happen
Grade 1: describe the likelihood that everyday
events will occur, using mathematical language
(i.e., impossible, unlikely, less likely, more likely, certain)
Grade 2: describe probability in everyday
situations and simple games
Grade 2: describe probability as a measure of the
likelihood that an event will occur, using
mathematical language (i.e., impossible, unlikely, less
likely, equally likely, more likely, certain)
Grade 2: describe the probability that an event will
occur (e.g., getting heads when tossing a coin,
landing on red when spinning a spinner) through
investigation with simple games and probability
experiments and using mathematical language
(e.g., “I tossed 2 coins at the same time, to see how
often I would get 2 heads. I found that getting a
head and a tail was more likely than getting 2
heads.”)
Grade 3: predict and investigate the frequency of a
specific outcome in a simple probability
experiment
Grade 3: predict the frequency of an outcome in a
simple probability experiment or game (e.g., “I
predict that an even number will come up 5 times
and an odd number will come up 5 times when I
roll a die 10 times.”), then perform the experiment,
and compare the results with the prediction, using
mathematical language
Grade 4: predict the results of a simple probability
experiment, then conduct the experiment and
compare the prediction to the results
Grade 4: predict the frequency of an outcome in a
simple probability experiment, explaining their
reasoning, conduct the experiment, and compare
the results with the prediction
Bases probability descriptions, predictions, and decisions on
both experimental data and analysis of theoretical outcomes.
Grade 5: represent as a fraction the probability
that a specific outcome will occur in a simple
probability experiment, using systematic lists and
models
Grade 5: represent, using a common fraction, the
probability that an event will occur in simple
games and probability experiments (e.g., “My
spinner has four equal sections and one of those
sections is coloured red. The probability that I will
land on red is 14.”)
Grade 6: determine the theoretical probability of
an outcome in a probability experiment, and use it
to predict the frequency of the outcome
Grade 6: express theoretical probability as a ratio
of the number of favourable outcomes to the total
number of possible outcomes, where all outcomes
are equally likely (e.g., the theoretical probability
of rolling an odd number on a six-sided number
cube is 36 because, of six equally likely outcomes,
only three are favourable—that is, the odd
numbers, 1, 3, 5)
Grade 6: represent the probability of an event
(i.e., the likelihood that the even will occur), using
a value from the range of 0 (never happens or
impossible) to 1 (always happens or certain)
Grade 6: predict the frequency of an outcome of a
simple probability experiment or game, by
calculating and using the theoretical probability of
that outcome (e.g., “The theoretical probability of
spinning red is 14 since there are four differentcoloured areas that are equal. If I spin my spinner
100 times, I predict that red should come up about
25 times.”)
(Cont.)
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August 2007
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Professional Resources and Instruction for Mathematics Educators, © 2007 Nelson, a division of Thomson Canada Limited
Ontario Mathematics Curriculum (K–6)
Correlation to the Probability Developmental Map (Cont.)
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Emerging Probabilistic Thinking;
Very Simple Experimental
Early Probabilistic Thinking; Simple Experimental
Probabilistic Thinking; More Complex
Experimental; Early Theoretical
Bases probability descriptions, predictions, and decisions on
informal experience and very simple experimental data.
Concept 1 (Cont.)
Probability involves the
use of mathematics to
describe the level of
certainty than an event
will occur.
Concept 2
Probabilities, both
theoretical and
experimental, can be
determined in different
ways.
Bases probability descriptions, predictions, and decisions on
previous experience, intuitive ideas about expected probability,
and simple experimental data.
Phase
Grade 5:3determine and represent all the possible
outcomes in a simple probability experiment
(e.g., when tossing a coin, the possible outcomes
are heads and tails; when rolling a number cube,
the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6) using
systematic lists and area models (e.g., a rectangle is
divided into two equal areas to represent the
outcomes of a coin toss experiment
Grade 3: predict and investigate the frequency of a
specific outcome in a simple probability
experiment
Grade 4: determine, through investigation, how
the number of repetitions of a probability
experiment can affect the conclusions drawn
Grade 3: predict the frequency of an outcome in a
simple probability experiment or game (e.g., “I
predict that an even number will come up 5 times
and an odd number will come up 5 times when I
roll a die 10 times.”), then perform the experiment,
and compare the results with the prediction, using
mathematical language
Grade 5: pose and solve simple probability
problems, and solve them by conducting
probability experiments and selecting appropriate
methods of recording the results (e.g., tally chart,
line plot, bar graph)
Grade 3: demonstrate, through investigation, an
understanding of fairness in a game and relate this
to the occurrence of equally likely outcomes
Grade 4: predict the results of a simple probability
experiment, then conduct the experiment and
compare the prediction to the results
Grade 4: predict the frequency of an outcome in a
simple probability experiment, explaining their
reasoning, conduct the experiment, and compare
the results with the prediction
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Bases probability descriptions, predictions, and decisions on
both experimental data and analysis of theoretical outcomes.
Grade 6: determine the theoretical probability of
an outcome in a probability experiment, and use it
to predict the frequency of the outcome
Grade 6: predict the frequency of an outcome of a
simple probability experiment or game, by
calculating and using the theoretical probability of
that outcome (e.g., “The theoretical probability of
spinning red is 14 since there are four differentcoloured areas that are equal. If I spin my spinner
100 times, I predict that red should come up about
25 times.”)
Professional Resources and Instruction for Mathematics Educators, © 2007 Nelson, a division of Thomson Canada Limited
Ontario Mathematics Curriculum (K–6)
Correlation to the Probability Developmental Map (Cont.)
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Emerging Probabilistic Thinking;
Very Simple Experimental
Early Probabilistic Thinking; Simple Experimental
Probabilistic Thinking; More Complex
Experimental; Early Theoretical
Bases probability descriptions, predictions, and decisions on
informal experience and very simple experimental data.
Skill 1
Uses organizational
tools to assist in
determining
probabilities.
Bases probability descriptions, predictions, and decisions on
previous experience, intuitive ideas about expected probability,
and simple experimental data.
Phase
Grade 5:3determine and represent all the possible
outcomes in a simple probability experiment
(e.g., when tossing a coin, the possible outcomes
are heads and tails; when rolling a number cube,
the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6) using
systematic lists and area models (e.g., a rectangle is
divided into two equal areas to represent the
outcomes of a coin toss experiment)
Bases probability descriptions, predictions, and decisions on
both experimental data and analysis of theoretical outcomes.
Grade 5: pose and solve simple probability
problems, and solve them by conducting
probability experiments and selecting appropriate
methods of recording the results (e.g., tally chart,
line plot, bar graph)
Grade 5: pose and solve simple probability
problems, and solve them by conducting
probability experiments and selecting appropriate
methods of recording the results (e.g., tally chart,
line plot, bar graph)
3 of 3
August 2007
0-17-632378-3
Professional Resources and Instruction for Mathematics Educators, © 2007 Nelson, a division of Thomson Canada Limited