Chapter 25 Aggregate Demand and Supply Analysis Monetarist View of AD Quantity Theory of Money MV = PY Implication: M determines (P Y) if V is constant Downward-Sloping AD M = 1000, V = 2 → P Y = 2000 Point A: P=2 Y = 1000 P Y = 2 x 1000 Point B: P=1 Y = 2000 P Y = 1 x 2000 Point C: P = 0.5 Y = 4000 P Y = 0.5 x 4000 Conclusion: P↓ (with M V constant) → Y↑ → downwardsloping AD Shift in AD (given P) M↑ → (P Y)↑ → Y↑ and AD shifts right 25-2 The AD Curve © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-3 Keynesian View of AD Y = C + I + G + NX Downward-Sloping AD P → M/P → i → C, I, NX → Y Shift in AD (given P) • Consumer Confidence → C, I → AD (shifts right) • Business Confidence → I → AD (shifts right) • Money Supply M → i → C, I, NX → AD (shifts right) • Government Spending G → Y → AD (shifts right) • Income Taxes T → Disposable Income → C → AD (shifts left) • Economics Growth Abroad → NX → AD (shifts right) • Exchange Rate: Value of Domestic Currency → NX → AD (shifts left) 25-4 Crowding–out Debate • Monetarists: Complete Crowding out when G → Government Borrowing → i → C, I, NX such that G = C+ I + NX → Y unchanged • Keynesians: Partial Crowding out when G → Government Borrowing → i → C, I, NX but G > C+ I + NX → Y and AD (shifts right) 25-5 Short-Run Aggregate Supply Upward-Sloping SRAS In the short-run, factor prices (nominal wages) are fixed → Production costs are fixed → P → Profits → Y Shift in SRAS (given P) • Factor Prices → Production Costs → Profits → SRAS (shifts left) • Expected Inflation → Factor Prices → Production Costs → SRAS (shifts left) • Corporate Taxes → Profits → SRAS (shifts left) • Government Regulations → Production Costs → Profits → SRAS (shifts left) © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-6 Long-Run Aggregate Supply Vertical LRAS • Nominal wages eventually change by the same amount as the price level → LRAS is vertical (does not depend on the price level). Shift in LRAS (Economic Growth) • Labour Force ↑ → Natural Level of Output Yn↑ and LRAS↑ (shift right) • Capital Stock ↑ → Natural Level of Output Yn↑ and LRAS↑ (shift right) • Technology (Productivity) ↑ → Natural Level of Output Yn↑ and LRAS↑ (shift right) Real Business Cycle Theory 1. Yn fluctuates because of supply (real) shocks. 2. Shifts in AD are small. 3. Conclusion: Business cycles result from real shocks. 4. Supports non-activism. © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-7 Equilibrium in the Long Run Panel (a): Y > Yn Unemployment ↓ → Wages (given P) → Profits → SRAS (shifts left until Y = Yn at LRAS) Panel (b): Y < Yn Unemployment ↑ → Wages (given P) → Profits → SRAS ↑ (shifts right until Y = Yn at LRAS) Activists (Keynesians) see movement to LRAS (selfcorrecting mechanism) as slow; non-activist (Classicals) see it as fast. 25-8 Effect of Shift in AD on Y 1.AD (shifts right) → Y and P to point 1‘. 2.Y > Yn → Unemployment ↓ → Wages (given P) → SRAS ↓ (shifts left until Y = Yn at point 2). Conclusion: AD shifts right → Y and P in short run, but in the long run Y is unchanged and P. 25-9 Effect of Shift in SRAS on Y 1. Negative Supply Shock: SRAS shifts left → Y and P to point 2. 2. Y < Yn → Unemployment ↑ → Wages (given P) → SRAS shifts right until return to point 1. Conclusion: SRAS shifts left → Y and P in short run, but in the long run Y and P are unchanged. 25-10
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