Theory of change
Francis Rathinam, Evaluation Specialist
Stuti Tripathi, Senior Policy and Evidence Uptake Officer
16 June 2016
What is a theory of change?
o Maps out how an intervention is supposed to
deliver the desired results
o Spells out the causal links between inputs,
processes, outputs and intermediate and final
outcomes,
o Identifies the underlying assumptions.
Example ToC for school feeding
Children eat
the meals
Nutritious meals
prepared and
served in correct
portions
Children
more
attentive
Better
learning
outcomes
Higher
attendance
Assumptions
Food available in
sufficient quantity and
quality at right time
Other inputs (e.g.
teachers) are
present
Steps in building theory of
change
Step One
Clearly define the intervention
Define the intervention: school feeding
• Which meal?
• How is ingredients to be
procured?
• What is planned to
ensure parents know
about it?
• Do guidelines for
cooking the meal exist?
• What training will be
provided to those
preparing food?
Photo@Indian Express
Steps Two
Map out
input, activities, outputs, outcomes
the causal links
assumptions underpinning these links
Theory of change
Staff
Identify project
school
Kitchens
equipped
Set up
procurement,
Production and
distribution
systems
Foodstuffs
produced,
procured or
received
Develop training
and guidance
materials
Money
Appropriately
Qualified and
Motivated
Project staff
Nutritious
meals
prepared and
served in
correct
portions
Children
more
attentive
Better
learning
outcomes
Higher
attendance
Trained schoollevel staff in
place
Identify and train
trainers
Assumptions
Funds
available on
time
Children
eat the
meals
Data available for
school selection
Equipment is
distributed and
usable
Those trained
understand tasks
Food available in
sufficient
quantity
Food used for
school meals and
properly
prepared
Meals are
palatable
Parents are
aware of
school
feeding and
value it
Other inputs
(e.g.
teachers)
are present
What to watch out for?
A ‘silo’ theory of change for school meals
Inputs
Activities
• Money
• Identify
schools
• Staff
• Provide
guidance and
training
• Set up
procurement
and
distribution
Outputs
• Staff
equipped to
prepare
meals
• School-based
facilities for
meal
preparation
• Distribute
cooking
equipment
• Nutritious
meals
prepared
with correct
portions
• Distribute
food stuffs
• Children eat
the meals
Outcomes
Impact
• Higher
attendance
• Higher
productivity
• Children
more
attentive in
class
• Better labour
market
outcomes
• Better life
• Better
learning
outcomes
Looking out for the unanticipated
Children eat
the meals
Nutritious meals
prepared and
served in correct
portions
Children
more
attentive
Better
learning
outcomes
Higher
attendance
Looking out for the unanticipated
Lesser time
spent in
classroom
Children eat
the meals
Nutritious meals
prepared and
served in correct
portions
Children
more
attentive
Better
learning
outcomes
Higher
attendance
Looking out for the unanticipated
Lesser time
spent in
classroom
Children eat
the meals
Nutritious meals
prepared and
served in correct
portions
Lower learning
outcomes
Children
more
attentive
Better
learning
outcomes
Higher
attendance
Step three
Add a temporal dimension
• Define project time line accurately and realistically
• Think through time required to observe change in
outcomes that the programme cares about
School feeding programme impact
timeline
0-3 months
0-6months
0-6months
6-36 months
Identification of
schools
Training
Procurement
Provision of
midday meals
12-24 months
12-24 months
18-36months
24-36months
School enrolment
School attendance
Better health
outcomes
Learning
outcomes
Step Four
Identify the evaluation questions
Steps:
• Interrogate the casual
chain
What kind of evidence is
best suited to answer
those questions
• Potential weak links
- Factual
• What to do differently to
improve programme
effectiveness
- Counterfactual
How best to measure
them?
Factual questions or process evaluation
Staff
Identify projects
school
Kitchens
equipped
Set up
procurement,
production and
distribution systems
Foodstuffs
produced,
procured or
received
Develop training
and guidance
materials
Money
Nutritious meals
prepared and
served in correct
portions
Trained schoollevel staff in
place
Identify and train
trainers
Factual
Assumptions
Funds
available on
time
Appropriately
Qualified and
Motivated
Project staff
Data available for
school selection
Those trained
understand tasks
Equipment is
distributed and
usable
Food available in
sufficient
quantity and
quality at right time
Food used for
school meals and
properly
prepared
Parents are
aware of
school
feeding and
value it
Other inputs
(e.g.
teachers)
are present
Factual questions or process evaluation
Staff
Identify projects
school
Kitchens
equipped
Set up
procurement,
production and
distribution systems
Foodstuffs
produced,
procured or
received
Develop training
and guidance
materials
Money
Nutritious meals
prepared and
served in correct
portions
Trained schoollevel staff in
place
Identify and train
trainers
Factual
Assumptions
Funds
available on
time
Appropriately
Qualified and
Motivated
Project staff
Data available for
school selection
Those trained
understand tasks
Equipment is
distributed and
usable
Food available in
sufficient
quantity and
quality at right time
Food used for
school meals and
properly
prepared
Parents are
aware of
school
feeding and
value it
Other inputs
(e.g.
teachers)
are present
Factual questions or process evaluation
Staff
Identify projects
school
Set up
procurement,
production and
distribution systems
Develop training
and guidance
materials
Money
Kitchens
equipped
Foodstuffs
produced,
procured or
received
Nutritious meals
prepared and
served in correct
portions
Trained schoollevel staff in
place
Identify and train
trainers
Factual
Assumptions
Funds
available on
time
Appropriately
Qualified and
Motivated
Project staff
Data available for
school selection
Those trained
understand tasks
Written or verbal
test of
representative
sample of those
trained
Equipment is
distributed and
usable
Food available in
sufficient
quantity and
quality at right time
Food used for
school meals and
properly
prepared
Parents are
aware of
school
feeding and
value it
Other inputs
(e.g.
teachers)
are present
Factual questions or process evaluation
Staff
Identify projects
school
Kitchens
equipped
Set up
procurement,
production and
distribution systems
Foodstuffs
produced,
procured or
received
Develop training
and guidance
materials
Money
Nutritious meals
prepared and
served in correct
portions
Trained schoollevel staff in
place
Identify and train
trainers
Factual
Assumptions
Funds
available on
time
Appropriately
Qualified and
Motivated
Project staff
Data available for
school selection
Those trained
understand tasks
Equipment is
distributed and
usable
Food available in
sufficient
quantity and
quality at right time
Food used for
school meals and
properly
prepared
Parents are
aware of
school
feeding and
value it
Other inputs
(e.g.
teachers)
are present
Factual questions or process evaluation
Staff
Identify projects
school
Kitchens
equipped
Set up
procurement,
production and
distribution systems
Foodstuffs
produced,
procured or
received
Develop training
and guidance
materials
Money
Nutritious meals
prepared and
served in correct
portions
Trained schoollevel staff in
place
Identify and train
trainers
Factual
Assumptions
Funds
available on
time
Appropriately
Qualified and
Motivated
Project staff
Data available for
school selection
Those trained
understand tasks
Equipment is
distributed and
usable
Food available in
sufficient
quantity and
quality at right time
Food used for
school meals and
properly
prepared
Parents are
aware of
school
feeding and
value it
Other inputs
(e.g.
teachers)
are present
Factual questions or process evaluation
Staff
Identify projects
school
Kitchens
equipped
For example,
India midday meals programme:
As per Nutritious
guidelines
meals
Set up
Foodstuffs
prepared
and
set by theprocurement,
Union Government, the produced,
midday meal programme
for
served in correct
production and
procured or
systems
primarydistribution
students
must have 450received
Kcal and 12 gm of portions
protein.
However, in a survey conducted from May 13, 2014, to July 22,
2015, 51 meals
Develop were
training tested and 27 of the samples had less than
Trained schooland guidance
the
required
12
gm
ofstaff
protein.
level
in
materials
place
Money
Identify and train
trainers
Factual
Assumptions
Funds
available on
time
Appropriately
Qualified and
Motivated
Project staff
Data available for
school selection
Those trained
understand tasks
Equipment is
distributed and
usable
Food available in
sufficient
quantity and
quality at right time
Food used for
school meals and
properly
prepared
Parents are
aware of
school
feeding and
value it
Other inputs
(e.g.
teachers)
are present
Process evaluation: What it can help
us learn
Impact evaluation of inventory credit and storage
support provided to small-scale palm oil producers
Farmers benefit from
inter-seasonal
fluctuations in
agricultural prices
Process evaluation: What it can help
us learn
Impact evaluation of inventory credit and storage
support provided to small scale palm oil producers
Farmers benefit from
inter-seasonal
fluctuations in
agricultural prices
The
intervention
did not have
an impact
Process evaluation: What it can help
us learn
Interventions fall at the first hurdle
Take-up of the intervention
was quite low. 30 per cent for
storage support and 25 per
cent for inventory credit.
Farmers benefit
from interseasonal
fluctuations in
agricultural
prices
Focus group discussions showed take-up was low due to
- high interest rates on the loans
- lack of info on price fluctuations
- Lack of trust in bank officials
- Programme disturbed pre-existing relationship with
traders
Starting point, an over simplistic
theory
Communities provided
with community storage
containers
Inventory credit loans
Increased revenue for
farmers benefiting from
seasonal price fluctuations
Developing the theory a bit…
Project
provides
storage space
and
containers
Project increases
liquidity through
loans
Palm-oil
farmers store
oil and use
the loan
Palm-oil
farmers don’t
sell during
peak times
Farmers sell
during off season
and make profits
Developing the theory a bit…
Project
provides
storage space
and
containers
Project increases
liquidity through
loans
Palm-oil
Containers
farmers store
are cheap,
oil and use
interest
the loan
rates are
low
Palm-oil
farmers don’t
sell during
peak times
Farmers sell
during off season
and make profits
Developing the theory a bit…
Project
provides
storage space
and
containers
Project increases
liquidity through
loans
Palm-oil
Palm-oil
Containers
Farmers
farmers store
farmers don’t
are cheap,
trust the
oil and use
sell during
interest
bank, other
the loan
peak times
rates are
key players
low
support
Farmers sell
during off season
and make profits
Developing the theory a bit…
Project
provides
storage space
and
containers
Project increases
liquidity through
loans
Palm-oil
Containers
are farmers
cheap, store
oil and use
interest
theare
loan
rates
low
Palm-oil
Farmers
farmers don’t
trust the
sell during
bank, other
peak times
key players
support
Farmers
sell
Stored
palm
during
season
oil off
easy
to
and access
make profits
and
use
What is envisioned
INPUTS
OUTPUTS
OUTCOMES
IMPACT
What actually happens
INPUTS
OUTPUTS
OUTCOMES
IMPACT
The funnel of attrition
Counterfactual question or impact evaluation
Staff
Identify projects
school
Kitchens
equipped
Set up
procurement,
production and
distribution systems
Foodstuffs
produced,
procured or
received
Develop training
and guidance
materials
Money
Higher
attendance
Nutritious meals
prepared and
served in correct
portions
Better
learning
outcomes
Children
more
attentive
Trained schoollevel staff in
place
Identify and train
trainers
Factual
Counterfactual
Assumptions
Funds
available on
time
Appropriately
Qualified and
Motivated
Project staff
Data available for
school selection
Those trained
understand tasks
Equipment is
distributed and
usable
Food available in
sufficient
quantity and
quality at right time
Food used for
school meals and
properly
prepared
Parents are
aware of
school
feeding and
value it
Other inputs
(e.g.
teachers)
are present
Counterfactual question or impact evaluation
Staff
Identify projects
school
Kitchens
equipped
Set up
procurement,
production and
distribution systems
Foodstuffs
produced,
procured or
received
Develop training
and guidance
materials
Money
Higher
attendance
Nutritious meals
prepared and
served in correct
portions
Better
learning
outcomes
Children
more
attentive
Trained schoollevel staff in
place
Identify and train
trainers
Factual
Counterfactual
Assumptions
Funds
available on
time
Appropriately
Qualified and
Motivated
Project staff
Data available for
school selection
Those trained
understand tasks
Equipment is
distributed and
usable
Food available in
sufficient
quantity and
quality at right time
Food used for
school meals and
properly
prepared
Parents are
aware of
school
feeding and
value it
Other inputs
(e.g.
teachers)
are present
Second generation questions
Staff
Identify projects
school
Kitchens
equipped
Set up
procurement,
production and
distribution systems
Foodstuffs
produced,
procured or
received
Develop training
and guidance
materials
Money
Identify and train
trainers
Higher
attendance
Nutritious meals
prepared and
served in correct
portions
Better
learning
outcomes
Children
more
attentive
Trained schoollevel staff in
place
Can we be thinking of take home
rations instead?
Assumptions
Funds
available on
time
Appropriately
Qualified and
Motivated
Project staff
Data available for
school selection
Those trained
understand tasks
Equipment is
distributed and
usable
Food available in
sufficient
quantity and
quality at right time
Food used for
school meals and
properly
prepared
Parents are
aware of
school
feeding and
value it
Other inputs
(e.g.
teachers)
are present
Step five
Validate and revise (theory of change walk)
Consult programme managers, intended
beneficiaries
Exercise (20 mins)
Sketch out the theory of change for your
intervention
1. Define intervention
2. Lay out main steps in causal chain, identifying
underlying assumptions
3. Add a temporal dimension
4. Identify key evaluation questions