Future scenario’s
for higher education
Dirk VAN DAMME
Head of CERI/OECD
Scenario’s
• Coming out of the OECD/CERI project on
‘University Futures’
• Not predictions, but consistent descriptions
of alternative hypothetical futures
• To help decision-makers and stakeholders
to make strategic choices
– Tools for futures thinking and strategic
management
– Drawing up imagination and creative thinking
9 December 2008
OECD/CERI/France conference
2
Sc 1. OPEN NETWORKING
• International collaboration and networking among
institutions, scholars, students and with other actors such
as industry
• Harmonization of HE systems
• High mobility of students designing their own courses and
trajectories, modularization, technologically supported
teaching and learning arrangements
• English as lingua franca
• Free and open knowledge exchange, international
collaborative research and, although there still is
hierarchy in institutions, open access to research
9 December 2008
OECD/CERI/France conference
3
Sc 1. OPEN NETWORKING
• Related developments:
– Bologna Process in Europe and other examples of
regional convergence, mobility
– International academic partnerships and consortia
– Cheap and fast communication by the Internet
– Open access to knowledge
9 December 2008
OECD/CERI/France conference
4
Sc 2. SERVING LOCAL COMMUNITIES
• Institutions focused on national, regional and local
missions
• Educational an research activities tuned to the needs of
local communities, although small number of
internationally active institutions
• Funding secures by local governments and business
• Close relations to local industry for design of initial
training and lifelong learning
• Research activities less prominent (eventually
concentrated elsewhere), but teaching and learning seen as
important (esp. in humanities and social sciences)
9 December 2008
OECD/CERI/France conference
5
Sc 2. SERVING LOCAL COMMUNITIES
• Related developments:
– Scepticism regarding globalisation, even antiglobalisation movements
– Emergence of geo-strategic concerns and even
protectionisms
– New interest in regional functions of higher education
– Interest in role of higher education in preserving
national culture and fostering social cohesion
9 December 2008
OECD/CERI/France conference
6
Sc 3. NEW PUBLIC RESPONSIBILITY
• Higher education publicly funded and regulated, but
with greater use of ‘new public management’ tools:
institutional autonomy, market forces, deregulation,
financial incentives, etc.
• Increasing private resources, from tuition fees, patenting
and industry relations
• Strong public accountability systems, but also more
private reward systems (reputation, feedback from
families and students)
• Diversification of institutions
• String competition for public research funding
9 December 2008
OECD/CERI/France conference
7
Sc 3. NEW PUBLIC RESPONSIBILITY
• Related developments:
– Accountability, transparency, efficiency and
effectiveness, responsiveness and forward vision as
cornerstones of public management
– Increasing institutional autonomy and growing
private resources
– Cost-sharing and raising tuition fees in many OECDcountries under debate to escape financial constraints
of state budgets
– Competitive research funding schemes
9 December 2008
OECD/CERI/France conference
8
Sc 4. HIGHER EDUCATION INC.
• Higher education institutions competing globally to
provide education services and research services on a
commercial basis
• Research and teaching disconnected and institutions
specialise their mission according to demand
• High competition for students; trade in commercial
knowledge, research and education (incl vocational)
• International competition and specialization;
outsourcing of research and education, also with
emerging economies; concentration of top-research
• English as language of research and postgraduate studies
9 December 2008
OECD/CERI/France conference
9
Sc 4. HIGHER EDUCATION INC.
• Related developments:
– Trade liberalization in education; opening up
educational services to global market; GATS
– International market of research
– Rise of private higher education and private funding
in public systems
– Increasing international mobility of students and
cross-border higher education
9 December 2008
OECD/CERI/France conference
10
global/international
Higher
Education Inc.
Open
Networking
New Public
Responsibility
state
Serving Local
Communities
local/national
market