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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Mahoney and Crombie Still Tied in Race to Replace Hazel Crombie seen to continue McCallion's legacy TORONTO
July 25th, 2014
HIGHLIGHTS:
TORONTO JULY 25th, 2014 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 946 Mississauga voters, relatively equal proportions will vote • Relatively equal proportions for Steve Mahoney (31%) or Bonnie Crombie (29%) in October's mayoral election, will vote for Steve Mahoney and this is the same situation which applied in April (27% and 25%, respectively). (31%) or Bonnie Crombie The Crombie voter is a Boomer (55 to 64 -­‐ 33%), male (32%), in a higher income (29%) in October's mayoral group ($80K to $100K -­‐ 35%, $100K to $250K -­‐ 37%), the best educated (post grad -­‐ election, and this is the same 36%), South Asian (46%), a mother with children (33%), voted Liberal in the last situation which applied in provincial election (38%) and lives north of Eglinton Avenue (38%). The Mahoney April (27% and 25%, voter is Gen X (45 to 54 -­‐ 35%) or a Boomer (55 to 64 -­‐ 37%), or a senior (65+ -­‐ 41%), respectively). in a middle income group ($60K to $80K -­‐ 43%), the least educated (39%), British or • Both candidates are matched British Isles ethnic origin (54%), Caribbean (43%), a provincial PC voter (41%) and on most attributes, with the lives west of Hurontario Street (38%). exception that Crombie is slightly preferred (25%) to Candidates matched on attributes Mahoney (21%) for carrying Both candidates are matched on most attributes, with the exception that Crombie is on Hazel McCallion's legacy. slightly preferred (25%) to Mahoney (21%) for carrying on Hazel McCallion's legacy. • Just more than half are On other attributes, the candidates do not differ strongly (best able to handle aware of Crombie (56%) and budget, Mahoney 25%, Crombie 24%; best plan for transit, Mahoney and Crombie -­‐ Mahoney (53%), and, among 19% each; keep taxes low, Mahoney -­‐ 20%, Crombie -­‐ 17%; best vision for city, those aware, each has Mahoney -­‐ 25%, Crombie 22%). similarly high approval levels Candidates matched in approvals (70% and 71%, respectively). • "These are two strong, well-­‐
Just more than half are aware of Crombie (56%) and Mahoney (53%), and, among liked candidates running those aware, each has similarly high approval levels (70% and 71%, respectively). strong campaigns. Neither is Crombie's awareness is stable since April (60%), but Mahoney's has improved (from the incumbent, but both are 47%). Approval has increased for both (from 61% and 63%, respectively). community fixtures and both "These are two strong, well-­‐liked candidates running strong campaigns. Neither is are energetic and outgoing. the incumbent, but both are community fixtures and both are energetic and This is stacking up to be a outgoing. This is stacking up to be a very interesting and hard-­‐fought campaign," very interesting and hard-­‐
said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. fought campaign," said Forum Research President, Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. reached at [email protected] or at (416) 960-­‐9603. 1 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
Methodology The Forum Poll™ was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 946 randomly selected residents of Mississauga 18 years of age and older. The poll was conducted on July 24th and 25th, 2014. TORONTO
July 25th, 2014
Results based on the total sample are considered accurate ±3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data. This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. Forum houses its poll results in the Data Library of the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian-­‐owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research firms. This Forum Poll™and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at www.forumresearch.com/polls.asp 2 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com Mayor Hazel McCallion Approval -­‐ Trending % MEDIA INQUIRIES:
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Sample Approve Disapprove July 25 , 2014 th
946 82 18 April 10, 2014 612 85 15 Mar 18, 2014 899 86 14 Jan. 11, 2014 780 86 14 TORONTO
July 25th, 2014
2-­‐Way Mayoral Trial Heats Trending Crombie / Mahoney % th
July 25 , 2014 April 10, 2014 Mar 18, 2014 Jan. 11, 2014 Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Don’t Know 946 612 899 780 29 25 22 29 31 27 29 25 40 48 50 46 3 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com Crombie / Mahoney MEDIA INQUIRIES:
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TORONTO
July 25th, 2014
‘If a mayoral election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Bonnie Crombie and Steve Mahoney?’ [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Don't know 946 29 31 40 18-­‐34 35-­‐44 83 28 27 45 45-­‐54 105 27 21 52 55-­‐64 65+ Male 190 29 35 36 237 33 37 30 331 29 41 30 Female 439 32 30 38 507 27 32 42 Income % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Don't know 946 29 31 40 <$20K $20-­‐$40K $40-­‐$60K $60-­‐$80K $80-­‐$100K $100-­‐$250K 87 23 31 47 112 27 25 48 130 31 24 45 111 24 43 33 112 35 34 31 166 37 35 28 Past Provincial Vote % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Don't know 946 29 31 40 Conservative Liberal NDP 248 26 41 33 433 38 32 30 Green Other parties 77 22 28 50 23 34 24 42 41 18 25 57 Ethnicity % 946 467 British Isles or Ireland 69 29 31 31 40 Total Canadian Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Don't know Other European South Asian Asian Caribbean Middle Eastern other 165 93 52 50 15 35 17 28 46 15 28 15 12 31 54 28 15 22 43 28 45 38 29 44 39 62 29 58 43 4 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
Best Candidate to Carry on McCallion’s Legacy ‘Which mayoral candidate would carry on Hazel McCallion's legacy?’ [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 946 25 21 28 26 18-­‐34 35-­‐44 83 23 17 37 23 45-­‐54 105 28 12 28 32 55-­‐64 65+ Male 190 24 25 23 29 237 24 25 24 26 331 25 28 24 23 TORONTO
July 25th, 2014
Female 439 27 22 25 25 507 22 19 31 28 Income % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 946 25 21 28 26 <$20K $20-­‐$40K $40-­‐$60K $60-­‐$80K $80-­‐$100K $100-­‐$250K 87 17 20 31 31 112 15 22 41 22 130 25 19 33 23 111 18 37 20 25 112 30 19 29 22 166 32 20 23 25 Past Provincial Vote % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 946 25 21 28 26 Conservative Liberal NDP 248 23 27 24 26 433 31 23 20 26 Green Other parties 77 17 13 42 29 23 32 21 37 9 41 12 20 51 17 Ethnicity % 946 467 British Isles or Ireland 69 25 25 21 Total Canadian Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 5 Other European South Asian Asian Caribbean Middle Eastern other 165 93 52 50 15 35 25 29 25 16 25 21 19 22 17 19 24 15 23 10 24 28 27 26 28 25 30 28 44 40 26 26 31 25 26 39 24 24 17 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
Best to Handle City Budget ‘Which mayoral candidate would best be able to handle the city budget?’ [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 946 24 25 23 28 18-­‐34 35-­‐44 83 23 24 26 27 45-­‐54 105 27 10 30 32 55-­‐64 65+ Male 190 25 30 16 30 237 23 31 19 27 331 22 34 19 25 TORONTO
July 25th, 2014
Female 439 27 27 22 24 507 21 23 23 32 Income % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 946 24 25 23 28 <$20K $20-­‐$40K $40-­‐$60K $60-­‐$80K $80-­‐$100K $100-­‐$250K 87 20 27 30 23 112 18 24 32 26 130 21 23 27 29 111 25 33 15 27 112 31 26 19 24 166 34 27 24 16 Past Provincial Vote % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 946 24 25 23 28 Conservative Liberal NDP 248 21 33 19 26 433 30 28 16 26 Green Other parties 77 29 12 20 39 23 32 15 31 23 41 8 33 42 17 Ethnicity % 946 467 British Isles or Ireland 69 24 24 25 Total Canadian Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 6 Other European South Asian Asian Caribbean Middle Eastern other 165 93 52 50 15 35 25 24 33 14 16 20 21 27 28 23 22 11 39 14 24 23 21 21 25 21 37 18 23 26 28 28 27 28 24 37 26 43 30 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
Best Plan for Transit ‘Which mayoral candidate has the best plan for transit?’ [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 946 19 19 27 35 18-­‐34 35-­‐44 83 14 21 31 34 45-­‐54 105 24 8 30 39 TORONTO
July 25th, 2014
55-­‐64 65+ Male 190 20 21 22 37 237 18 23 25 34 331 19 22 28 31 Female 439 23 20 24 32 507 14 17 30 38 Income % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 946 19 19 27 35 <$20K $20-­‐$40K $40-­‐$60K $60-­‐$80K $80-­‐$100K $100-­‐$250K 87 10 22 34 34 112 15 17 34 33 130 23 16 27 33 111 22 27 21 30 112 21 25 23 32 166 24 16 31 30 Past Provincial Vote % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 946 19 19 27 35 Conservative Liberal NDP 248 17 23 27 33 433 25 17 21 36 Green Other parties 77 19 14 32 35 23 13 36 33 18 41 3 18 55 24 Ethnicity % 946 467 British Isles or Ireland 69 19 18 19 Total Canadian Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 7 Other European South Asian Asian Caribbean Middle Eastern other 165 93 52 50 15 35 20 21 27 15 14 8 14 18 21 17 18 5 34 5 28 27 27 33 29 22 28 25 53 32 35 38 26 32 33 52 28 34 26 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
Best Candidate to Keep Taxes Low ‘Which mayoral candidate would keep taxes low?’ [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 946 17 20 32 31 18-­‐34 35-­‐44 83 8 25 36 31 45-­‐54 105 24 10 35 31 TORONTO
July 25th, 2014
55-­‐64 65+ Male 190 20 18 29 33 237 18 21 32 29 331 19 24 27 30 Female 439 20 23 29 28 507 14 17 35 33 Income % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 946 17 20 32 31 <$20K $20-­‐$40K $40-­‐$60K $60-­‐$80K $80-­‐$100K $100-­‐$250K 87 10 23 29 39 112 17 15 39 29 130 20 14 37 29 111 23 28 23 26 112 24 17 36 23 166 20 25 32 23 Past Provincial Vote % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 946 17 20 32 31 Conservative Liberal NDP 248 13 28 30 29 433 23 19 29 29 Green Other parties 77 19 8 26 47 23 18 29 36 17 41 5 27 50 17 Ethnicity % 946 467 British Isles or Ireland 69 17 16 20 Total Canadian Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 8 Other European South Asian Asian Caribbean Middle Eastern other 165 93 52 50 15 35 18 18 26 10 13 17 13 20 26 15 23 5 28 3 28 32 32 25 34 24 47 32 44 35 31 31 30 33 27 38 27 36 24 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
Candidate with Best Vision for the City ‘Which mayoral candidate has the best vision for the city?’ [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 946 22 25 23 29 18-­‐34 35-­‐44 83 23 27 22 28 45-­‐54 105 24 9 31 36 TORONTO
July 25th, 2014
55-­‐64 65+ Male 190 18 30 20 32 237 23 31 22 25 331 23 30 21 25 Female 439 24 28 22 26 507 20 23 24 32 Income % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 946 22 25 23 29 <$20K $20-­‐$40K $40-­‐$60K $60-­‐$80K $80-­‐$100K $100-­‐$250K 87 18 25 31 26 112 19 21 29 30 130 21 24 24 31 111 19 37 20 24 112 30 26 20 24 166 29 26 24 21 Past Provincial Vote % Total Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 946 22 25 23 29 Conservative Liberal NDP 248 19 30 22 29 433 30 27 15 29 Green Other parties 77 25 16 29 30 23 10 36 29 24 41 3 33 42 22 Ethnicity % 946 467 British Isles or Ireland 69 22 22 25 Total Canadian Sample Bonnie Crombie Steve Mahoney Neither Don't know 9 Other European South Asian Asian Caribbean Middle Eastern other 165 93 52 50 15 35 17 22 34 17 15 22 16 26 30 21 21 14 39 25 34 23 23 22 24 14 32 20 23 34 29 29 30 32 31 37 26 29 17 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
Awareness of Crombie ‘Are you aware of Bonnie Crombie?’ [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total 18-­‐34 Sample Yes No 946 56 44 83 52 48 35-­‐44 105 53 47 TORONTO
July 25th, 2014
45-­‐54 55-­‐64 190 61 39 237 57 43 65+ Male 331 62 38 Female 439 64 36 507 50 50 Income % Total <$20K Sample Yes No 946 56 44 $20-­‐$40K $40-­‐$60K $60-­‐$80K $80-­‐$100K $100-­‐$250K 87 35 65 112 43 57 130 56 44 111 44 56 112 71 29 166 71 29 Past Provincial Vote % Total Progressive Conservative Sample Yes No 946 56 44 Liberal NDP Green Other parties 248 60 40 433 67 33 77 50 50 23 48 52 41 61 39 Other European South Asian Asian Caribbean Middle Eastern other 165 46 54 93 69 31 52 42 58 50 50 50 15 47 53 35 48 52 Ethnicity % Total Canadian Sample Yes No 946 56 44 467 61 39 British Isles or Ireland 69 59 41 10 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com Awareness of Mahoney ‘Are you aware of Steve Mahoney?’ [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total 18-­‐34 Sample Yes No 946 53 47 83 49 51 35-­‐44 105 34 66 MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
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416.960.9603
TORONTO
July 25th, 2014
45-­‐54 55-­‐64 190 59 41 237 63 37 65+ Male 331 65 35 Female 439 57 43 507 49 51 Income % Total <$20K Sample Yes No 946 53 47 $20-­‐$40K $40-­‐$60K $60-­‐$80K $80-­‐$100K $100-­‐$250K 87 37 63 112 39 61 130 57 43 111 56 44 112 57 43 166 62 38 Past Provincial Vote % Total Progressive Conservative Sample Yes No 946 53 47 Liberal NDP Green Other parties 248 65 35 433 60 40 77 39 61 23 47 53 41 61 39 Other European South Asian Asian Caribbean Middle Eastern other 165 45 55 93 47 53 52 36 64 50 58 42 15 46 54 35 43 57 Ethnicity % Total Canadian Sample Yes No 946 53 47 467 59 41 British Isles or Ireland 69 64 36 11 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com Approval of Crombie ‘Do you approve or disapprove of Bonnie Crombie?’ [Heard of Bonnie Crombie] Age / Gender % Total 18-­‐34 Sample Approve Disapprove 556 70 30 45 67 33 35-­‐44 56 71 29 45-­‐54 55-­‐64 113 73 27 136 69 31 MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
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416.960.9603
TORONTO
July 25th, 2014
65+ Male 206 68 32 Female 276 70 30 280 69 31 Income % Total <$20K $20-­‐$40K $40-­‐$60K Sample Approve Disapprove 556 70 30 30 66 34 51 81 19 78 61 39 $60-­‐$80K $80-­‐$100K $100-­‐$250K 61 76 24 76 69 31 121 71 29 Education % Total Sample Approve Disapprove 556 70 30 Secondary school or less 72 66 34 Some college or university 149 67 33 Completed college or university 219 71 29 Post graduate studies 116 72 28 Ethnicity % Sample Approve Disapprove British Other Total Canadian Isles or European Ireland 556 298 42 82 70 68 60 80 30 32 40 20 South Asian Asian 61 78 22 20 76 24 Caribbean 26 66 34 Middle other Eastern 6 60 40 21 44 56 12 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
Approval of Mahoney ‘Do you approve or disapprove of Steve Mahoney?’ [Heard of Steve Mahoney] Age / Gender % Total 18-­‐34 Sample Approve Disapprove 551 71 29 35-­‐44 42 72 28 45-­‐54 55-­‐64 36 53 47 110 74 26 149 73 27 TORONTO
July 25th, 2014
65+ Male 214 74 26 Female 265 68 32 286 74 26 Income % Total <$20K $20-­‐$40K $40-­‐$60K Sample Approve Disapprove 551 71 29 36 76 24 49 69 31 86 54 46 $60-­‐$80K $80-­‐$100K $100-­‐$250K 67 77 23 62 65 35 119 74 26 Past Provincial Vote % Total Conservative Sample Approve Disapprove 551 71 29 Liberal NDP Green Other parties 162 76 24 280 71 29 35 43 57 9 92 8 22 77 23 Ethnicity % Sample Approve Disapprov
e Tota
l Canadia
n 551 71 303 70 British Isles or Irelan
d 44 81 29 30 19 Other Europea
n Sout
h Asian Asia
n Caribbea
n Middle Easter
n othe
r 89 76 42 61 21 57 28 82 7 60 17 69 24 39 43 18 40 31 13 180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) 960-­‐9603 Fax: (416) 960-­‐9602 E-­‐mail: [email protected] 14 TORONTO
July 25th, 2014
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com