How do we calculate the chances
of an event occurring?
Method #1
Method #2
Try to estimate the
likelihood of an
event occurring by
observing the actual
random event many
times and calculate
the relative
frequency of the
results.
Create a probability model and use
it to calculate theoretical probabilities
(an actual
experiment or study)
(using the laws of probability)
Method #3
Design a model that accurately
reflects the random event and use
that simulation to repeat the event
several times.
A simulation often carried out using random numbers to
represent the independent trials of the event.
(independent = the results of a trial do not effect the other
trials)
Steps of a Simulation
1) State the problem/describe the random event
2) State the assumptions
3) Assign digits to represent outcomes
4) Simulate many repetitions
5) State your conclusions
You try:
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