Energy security and energy efficiency issues:
household perspective in European countries
prof. dr. Manuela Tvaronavičienė
Vilnius Gediminas Technical University
2016
Content
• Research topicality
• What do we mean by sustainable and secure
development
• Sustainability and competitiveness
• Has competitiveness time dimension?
• Energy use and competitiveness in short-term
and competitiveness in long-term
• Insights
Research topicality
• Sustainability and Competitiveness has become key (buzz)
words
• Sustainability is still understood differently
• Sustainability is not seen as security of development
• Short-term and long-term competitiveness is not being
distinguished
• Factors affecting long-term competitiveness are not known
• Role of energy use remains controversial
What do we mean by sustainable and secure
development
There are many perceptions of development
The most common- economic development, most frequently
measured by GDP per capita
Countries agreed to measure development by Human
Development Index, which incorporates
income level and quality of human capital estimated through
longevity and education
Sustainable development conventionally embrace three pillars:
economic, social and environmental. What indicators to include
into each pillar remains object of on-going discussion
What do we mean by sustainable and secure
development
We claim that in contemporary world
sustainable development means secure
development
Security has many dimensions, but here we will
focus on one of them: efficient energy use
A little bit of statistics from the International Energy Agency
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/keyworld2014.pdf
Environmental degradation
Why is that? Because of
famous WHAT?
Safe limit
Policy tunnell
Pre-industrial
economies
Industrial
economies
Income per capita
Post-industrial
economies
Sustainability and competitiveness
• If sustainability means security, it means our
development is not sustainable because is
insecure
• Competitiveness means ability to sell
• In order to sell you need to produce, when
you produce, you use energy
Has competitiveness time dimension?
Assumption is:
Long-term competitiveness of countries will be
based on efficient energy use
Short-term competitiveness does not
automatically mean long-term competitiveness
Who are energy users?
• Producers (industry, agriculture)
• Households
• Transport
Analysis of energy intensities in selected
countries
The following countries have been selected Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia,
Bulgaria, Belgium, Germany and Luxemburg.
The following users have been chosen: households and agriculture
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are similar countries in terms of geographical
location, history and level of economic development.
Bulgaria has been selected as country, which is among the weakest among
European Union members judging from the point of view of statistically
measured economic development.
Belgium, Germany and Luxemburg represent the richest the EU countries.
Those three countries has been selected with a purpose to observe if
consistent patterns can be traced; i.e. to verify, if forecasted energy
intensities can be characterized by the same trends of change and if
countries’ size and economic specialization affect trends, which will be
revealed in result of analysis.
Assumption
• Energy intensities in the long-term will diminish in all sectors,
i.e.
• Household
• Industry and agriculture
• Transport
We check our assumption by forecasting energy intensities in
selected countries until year 2015 ceteris paribus
Forecasting methodology:
The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) is a widely-used software tool for
energy policy analysis and climate change mitigation assessment developed at the Stockholm
Environment Institute (SEI). It has been adopted by thousands of organizations in more than 190
countries worldwide. Its users include government agencies, academics, non-governmental
organizations, consulting companies, and energy utilities, and it has been used at scales ranging
from cities and states to national, regional and global applications. (LEAP web site:
www.energycommunity.org)
Energy intensity raises (households, Lithuania)
Energy intensity raises (households, Latvia)
Energy intensity does not raise but its level remains 30 percent
higher than in Baltic countries (households, Germany)
Results in selected countries
The results of forecasting provide us rather unexpected
and very interesting from scientific point of view
results: in a year 2050 Lithuania energy intensity
measured in kilowatt hour per person will be 5730. 2,
in Latvia 6482.9, in Estonia 7184.2, in Bulgaria 4374.9,
in Belgium and Germany respectively 9000.7 and
9000.7 and in Luxembourg will reach striking heights of
15000.2 kilowatt hour per person.
It means in long term now less developed EU countries might
surpass current leaders
Energy intensity diminishes in agriculture (Lithuania)
Energy intensity diminishes in agriculture (Latvia)
Energy intensity diminishes in agriculture (Estonia)
Energy intensity diminishes in agriculture (Germany)
Results in selected countries
•
•
Lithuania’s agricultural intensity during period 1990-2050 would change from 1.8
to 0.3 kilowatt-hour per European Euro. Latvian agricultural energy intensity
would diminish 2.5 to 0.9 and Estonia’s respectively from 4.7 to 1.5 kilowatt-hour
per European Euro. Here we see significant difference, despite the countries are
rather similar as noted above. Estonian’s energy intensity is higher and diminishing
rates are much lower if to compare to Lithuania. In Bulgaria energy intensity of
agricultural sector will diminish from 2.7 to 0.3 kilowatt-hour per European Euro.
Energy intensity improving rates and resulting intensity is much better than in
Estonia, despite Bulgaria is less developed economically. In Belgium, Germany and
Luxembourg energy intensities during considered period would change
respectively from 1.2 to 1.9; 1.3 to 0.7 and 0.7 to 1.1. Here we do not observe
such vivid tendency of energy intensity diminishing. Even more, Luxembourg
demonstrates increase in energy intensity, the tendency which is detrimental to
energy security and sustainable development phenomenon. Results are not
expectable and not predictable. Lithuania’s data are the best. Bulgaria’s
performance in sector of agriculture appear to be much better than in old, highly
developed European countries
It means in long term now less developed EU countries might surpass current
leaders
Insights
•
•
•
•
•
The presented paper argues, that energy security has to be perceived as constituent of security
of countries and individuals. Security in its own turn serves as one of preconditions of
sustainable development.
Long-term sustainable and secure development could be achieved only by involving
individuals and organizations into process of energy stewardship and so gradually shifting
self-perception from energy security observers to energy security enhancers.
Basing on the performed analysis the following insights can be formulated. The first, energy
intensity of households in the long run is not going to diminish. That tendency has to be taken
into account and interpreted as conditional threat.
The second, energy intensity of such important economic sector, as agriculture will diminish
considerably only in Lithuania and Bulgaria. Other countries will not demonstrate such good
performance.
The third, we suggest to use the best forecasted results for benchmarking purposes; hence
energy intensity in household sector could be benchmarked by 4 400 Kilowatt-Hour per
Person and energy intensity in agricultural sector could be benchmarked by 0.3 Kilowatt-Hour
per European Euro. Revealed trends and concrete results can be followed by respective policy
implications in the area of energy use.
Thank you for your attention