decision..making should not be a coin flip
T.L. Stanley
W
hen you get in your car in
the morning and put the
key in the ignition, you expect it
to start and then to carry you to
work. You do not guess that your
car will start. You do not leave it
to chance,
because
decided beforehand
you
have
that your car
needs to be in good running order.
When
it
comes
to
car
maintenance,
your decision is
clear. You have made a decision
prior to starting your car to have
gas in the tank, air in your tires,
oil in the engine, and a charge in
your battery. In the case of your
car, decision-making
flip.
In organizations,
is not a coin
decision-
making should not be a gamble.
Wise supervisors and managers do
not make decisions based on a wild
hunch.
When
considering
the
right path to take, decision-making
is serious
business.
Sound
decision-making
is founded
on a
process of evaluating alternatives
and selecting the best option.
Successful outcomes depend on
using all resources available to make
the right decision.
Simply put, making
a decision
implies that there are alternatives
to be considered.
Success will
depend on identifying reasonable
alternatives that have the highest
probability of success and best fits
organizational goals.
It should be noted here that
uncertainty
is reduced rather than
eliminated. Very few decisions are
made with absolute
certainty.
Complete knowledge about all the
alternatives
is seldom possible.
Thus, every decision involves a
certain amount of risk.
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President
Franklin
Delano
Roosevelt had a tough decision
to make when he was elected
President
He took
of the United States.
office in 1933 and
America was in the depths of the
Great Depression. America was
demoralized.
Joblessness was
widespread.
Something had to
be done about unemployment.
Developing a job program was
an alternative, but it was risky.
His jobs program had never been
attempted
before.
President
Roosevelt could not wait. He
considered the alternatives based
on the information available and
made a decision to create a jobs
program that would eventually
be
called
Work
Projects
Administration
(WPA).
- oh
When it comes to decisions, there
said; Detour
jobs program
in
history. It employed
are usually plenty of warning signs
and detour signs ahead. However,
things I find; Should have read that
millions of workers to carry out
public works projects, including
supervisors and managers must read
the detour signs.
the construction
buildings,
roads,
of public
schools, and
For example,
when a new
computer operating system is being
hundreds of other projects for the
considered
for implementation,
always be careful in placing a new
system into operation.
This is
It was the larges t and mos t
ambitious
American
public good. It fed children, who
were going hungry. The program
distributed
food and clothing to
the down and out. Soup kitchens
were set up.
Housing
was
provided
to those in need.
Moreover,
the
needy
were
everywhere.
Between 1935 and 1943, the
WPA provided almost million
jobs.
President
Roosevelt's
decision helped Americans regain
their dignity and self-respect.
In
especially important, when the new
operating
system has been the
subject of mixed reviews.
Since
issues
of
privacy,
security,
performance,
and
product
making is uncertainty,
and a major
goal of decision analysis is to
reduce uncertainty. We never have
all the information needed to make
a decision with certainty, so most
decisions
involve risk of some
degree.
The Anaheim Angels baseball
team was faced with tremendous
uncertainty
in
2002.
Their
pitching staff was found to be weak
in places as the season unfolded.
Change for change sake is unwise.
It is imperative that a new software
pitchers late in the season.
They entered the playoffs as an
program
underdog.
works
effectively
upon
Depression.
Organizations
are not usually
faced with a decision
of this
program
based
evaluations.
I saw a driver flip a u-turn in the
middle of the street and crashed
into another car head on. Noone
detour sign".
The major challenge of decision-
The team needed help. Therefore,
they called up three unproven
implementation.
There may be
several detour signs about the new
Not long ago in my hometown,
bitter
activation are quite important to
any organization,
care should be
taken before a change is planned.
addition,
the WPA helped
America recover from the Great
magnitude,
but organizational
challenges require supervisors and
mangers
to
make
sound
decisions.
these
on
previous
Supervisors and managers must
recognize the danger of any change
and take the necessary
detour
around
pitfalls.
If necessary,
supervisor and managers must take
another route to improve system-
In the 2002 World
Series, the lowly Anaheim Angels
faced the mighty San Francisco
Giants.
The
television
commentators were not impressed
with the Anaheim Angels and
promptly dismissed them as just
another
Disneyland
attraction
from Anaheim. The Angels had
relied all season on timely hitting
from a team that did not possess
big name all-stars.
cars were
wide computer applications. Paying
attention to the detour signs is vital,
because a muddy road may be just
ahead.
damaged. Flipping a u-turn in the
middle of the street was obviously
Country
music singer Hank
Thompson recorded a classic song
Angels 3 game to 2. The Giants
had a comfortable lead in game 6
and were 8 outs away from winning
a bad decision.
Hopefully,
supervisors and managers do not
titled "Detour" written by Paul
Westmoreland many years ago. The
lyrics are haunting about making the
the World Series.
Champaign
bottles were being opened in the
Giant's clubhouse in anticipation
right decision when faced with a
fork in the road or a detour. The
of a Giants World Series victory.
Then, the Angels rallied in the 7th
inning of game 6 and went on to
win the 2002 World Series with
was hurt,
but both
change direction this way and
make decisions haphazardly.
Most decisions are made by
moving back and forth between
alternatives.
The alternatives
- there's
available influence our decisions.
Detour
lyrics warn us of following: "Detour
a muddy road ahead;
- paid
no mind to what it
In the 6th game of the World
Series, the Giants were leading the
timely
hitting
and outstanding
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pitching from the players called
up late in the season. The lesson
Moving back and forth and
considering
alternatives
is an
based on some rational
here is that the Angels were faced
with uncertainty. They evaluated
the alternatives
and made a
important
considered
like compatibility,
affection, humor, intelligence, and.
responsible behavior. In the end,
decision to depend on their lateseason pitching call-ups. These 3
pitchers, with no star credentials,
helped them to the World Series
and then propelled
them toa
World Series victory over the
mighty San Francisco Giants. If
you
have
alternatives,
evaluated
have done
the
due
diligence, and feel your direction
is right on target, have faith in
your decision.
The
associated
decision.
following
are
risks
with
delaying
a
A). As the decision
decision-making
concept. For example, preparing
food is full of decision-making.
When you are preparing a delicious
dish, you are making important
decisions all the time about recipe
ingredients.
When a cook prepares egg foo
young, decisions must be made by
moving back and forth between the
amounts of ingredients.
Firstly, the number of eggs must
be decided. Too many eggs in the
making
process.
decision
Traits
people make a selection based on
a set of criteria.
Even though
steamy romance seems to hijack
the decision making process in
mate selection regularly,
most
rational
people
try to make
marriage
criteria.
decisions
Decision
on practical
Making Procedure
recipe and the egg foo young will
become an omelet.
Secondly, a
decision must be made about the
amount of bean sprouts. Then, the
number
of onions
must be
1. Identify
the decision to be
made together with the goals
it should achieve
2. Get the facts.
environment continues to grow,
the decision maker might become
overwhelmed
with too much
evaluated carefully, because
much onion can overwhelm
must be
3. Develop alternatives.
information
chosen carefully. White onions,
yellow onions, and red onions have
different flavors. Since there are
4. Rate each alternative.
and either
make a
poor decision or else face decision
paralysis.
B). Some alternatives
might
become unavailable because of
events occurring during the delay.
In a few cases, where the decision
was between
two alternatives,
both alternatives might become
unavailable. This would leave the
decision maker with nothing. We
have all had the experience of
are
dish.
Then,
the onion
too
the
the list of
Simply put,
all of life's
5. Rate the risk of each alternative.
in a context
When you make a decision, stick
of other decisions.
For example,
making a decision to get married
is probably
one of the most
with it. If you have explored the
several ingredients,
decisions is endless.
decision making in
activities is important.
Decisions are made
important
decisions
in life.
If a
6. Make the decision.
alternatives, have been diligent in
pursing the best path, and feel you
are on the right track, don't waiver
seeing some amazing bargain only
to hesitate and find that when we
person has had a previous marriage
that did not work out, the criteria
go back to buy the item, it is sold
out.
for mate selection may change
dramatically.
Moreover, even the
doubt your decisions.
C). Ip a competitive environment,
decision to marry again will be
influenced by a previous marriage.
naysayers.
This is what James
Anthony Abbott did. He made a
In general, you would not think
of flipping a coin to help you make
a decision
to get married.
A
decision
another manufacturer might bring
a similar product to market, while
you
delay
your
decision.
Therefore, time is of the essence
in decision-making.
decision to get married is usually
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in your commitment.
in your decision.
Have faith
There will always be those that
Ignore the
early on in his life to
adapt and never give up.
I
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James Anthony Abbbtt was faced
with many challenges\~ because he
was born without a rig~t hand. He
made a decision, w~en he was
playing in Little League\baseball, to
play Major League Bas~ball. His
decision to put all his clnergy into
becoming a Major Leagbe Pitcher
earned
him a trip td\ the big
leagues.
He played fOf several
Major League teams in ~is career
and threw a no-hitter ~n 1993
against the Cleveland Ind~ans. He
made a decision early irt life to
overcome obstacles and be \a Major
\
League Baseball player.
Wise supervisors and mtnagers
look at all reasonable alterratives
and select the best path.
¥aking
the right decision is not\ easy.
However, supervisors and mathagers
who persevere the stormy sJas of
our topsy-turvy global eco~omy
will be victorious in the end.
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T.L.
Stanley
is
a
regular
contributor
to Supervision
Magazine. He currently works for
the
State
of California's
Employment
Development
Department as an Employment
Program Representative.
In
addition, he worked for a large.
public utility for 27 years in nonmanagement
positions.
and management
He
has
an
extraordinary understanding
workplace
issues
from
of
an
employee and supervisor point of
view. With his seasoned work
:experienced,
he has published
extensively on the subject of
organizational life. He earned BS
& MS degrees in Organizational
Management from University of
La Verne and an MA degree in
Organizational Leadership
Chapman University.
from
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