The Global
Competition for
Talent
Innovation and mobility
of the highly skilled
OECD/France International Conference:
CERI 40th Anniversary
Conservatoire National des Arts et
Métiers
Paris, 9 December 2008
Sarah Box, OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry
[email protected]
Background trends: the context for mobility
•Strengthening investment
in R&D raising demand for
researchers
•Non-OECD countries of
growing importance for
global science and
innovation
Contributions to growth in global R&D, 1996-2001 and 2001-2006
(in billion constant USD PPP and %)
180
160
12%
140
11%
120
100
10%
7%
80
23%
60
•Fragmentation of value
chains
40
37%
20
13%
Other non-OECD (2)
30%
China
Other OECD (1)
13%
Japan
13%
EU-27
15%
United States
16%
0
•Ageing population, drop in
share of graduates in science
and engineering…
1996-2001
2001-2006
Note: (1) Australia, Canada, Iceland, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway and Turkey.
(2) Argentina, Brazil, India, Israel, Russian Federation, Singapore, South Africa, Chinese
Taipei; latest years for India estimated.
Source: OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators and national sources.
2
Expatriates to OECD countries, by
OECD member, 2001
Source: OECD Database on Immigrants and Expatriates
3
Highly skilled migrants from OECD & non-OECD
countries, by OECD country of residence, 2001
(as % of skilled natives in country of residence)
4
Source: OECD Database on Immigrants and Expatriates
Net balance: Highly skilled emigrants
and immigrants, 2001
(000)
5
Source: OECD Database of Immigrants and Expatriates
Student mobility has risen very fast
Number of students enrolled outside
their country of citizenship, 1975-2005
3
2.5
2
Millions
• Students are increasingly
mobile – numbers grew
50% from 2000-2005
• 84% enrolled in OECD
area – top destinations are
US, UK, Germany, France,
Australia
• Two-thirds of foreign
students in OECD
countries are from nonOECD economies – top
sources are China, India,
Morocco, Malaysia, Hong
Kong (China)
1.5
1
0.5
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2007
2005
6
Return and circular migration
• Return and circular migration form an important part of
mobility
– 75% return rate of skilled Australian emigrants who
depart “permanently”
– 50% of immigrants with work visas left Norway
within 10 years of arrival – similar figures in Canada
– Intended length of stay of immigrants to UK is falling.
7
Why do people return?
• Reasons for return:
– Family/personal reasons, adequate employment
opportunities at home
– Norwegian data on scientific researchers – the greater
the cultural, economic and geographic distance, the
more likely migrant researchers will leave Norway
– For students, perceptions of labour market in host
country also important. Stay rates of students differ
by country of origin, and by field of study.
8
For China: A growing share of students return
%
Thousand persons
140
45
125.2
117.3
120
114.7
118.5
40
35
100
30
84
80
25
60
20
39
40
20
22.4
20.9
20.4
5.8
6.6
23.7
17.6
7.1
35
7.4
7.7
9.1
12.2
20.2
17.9
24.7
15
10
5
0
0
Overseas Chinese students
Returned students
Return/abroad
Source: OECD, Review of Innovation Policy, China, based on NBS, China Statistical Yearbook.
9
Impacts of mobility
• Personal gain: better economic conditions,
availability of quality research infrastructure,
access to “star” scientists, freedom to debate
• Mobility is vital to diffusion of tacit knowledge
– Face-to-face communication is still important
– Migrant knowledge spreads to their new organisation,
to geographically proximate entities and to
community of practice
• Amount of knowledge that moves depends on
institutional environment, absorptive capacity…
10
Impacts on sending countries
• Permanent migration
– Diaspora: building familiarity and confidence with
sending countries, acting as conduits for knowledge
– “Beneficial brain drain” – an incentive to improve
human capital
– Access to a larger global stock of knowledge
• Temporary migration
– “Brain circulation” builds networks, linkages and
thoroughfares for knowledge – but absorptive
capacity is essential
11
Impacts – labour market internationalisation
Share of highly cited with non-home
research experience (by country of
current institution)
• Occurring in both private
sector and academia
• Drawing on migrant knowledge
of foreign languages and
markets, networks of
colleagues, teaching abilities
100
%
90
80
70
60
50
• Some evidence that academic
mobility associated with higher
quality output
40
30
20
10
0
Switzerland Australia
Canada
Italy
Germany Netherlands
UK
Japan
France
USA
Based on sample of 494 researchers from ISI Highly Cited
Database (1985-2004)
Source: Evidence (2005)
12
Impacts - invention
• Studies from US suggest
increasing proportion of
patents involve foreign
nationals residing in US,
and large involvement of
skilled immigrants in
engineering & tech firm
creation.
Patents with foreign coinventors (2002-04)
%
2002-04
60
50
40
30
20
• Also increasing
international co-operation
in invention.
10
0
Source: OECD Patent Database 2008
13
Impacts – co-authorship
Relationship of foreign-born US S&E
doctorate recipients to country scientific
collaboration with US
(1994-98 grads and 1999-2003 articles)
• Numerous studies point to
increased international coauthorship
• E.g. from 1992-2003, the % of
internationally co-authored
S&E papers went from 14% to
25% in US and 12% to 21% in
Japan
• Patterns of co-authorship
affected by country capacity,
geographic proximity,
institutional linkages…
Foreign-born US doctorate holders 1994-98 (log)
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
-1.0
-2.0
Coauthored articles 1999-2003 (log)
Source: Regets (2007)
14
Future prospects
• Mobility of skilled people has become a central aspect of
globalisation
• Mobility policies in OECD countries are currently mainly
aimed at attracting talent and addressing shortages:
– With growing international demand for talent, developing and
strengthening national efforts to foster talent will become more
important to address demand.
– Sending talent abroad should be equally important as attracting
talent.
– More thinking on the rationale for government policy is needed
• Developing policy coherence:
– Policy gaps: fostering circular/temporary mobility, diaspora
– Establishing a supportive broader environment for innovation;
15
Summary
• Mobility of researchers leads to flows of knowledge that
benefit both sending and receiving countries: Mobility is
not a zero-sum game
• Flows of HRST and students are significant for some
countries, with increasing circular and return migration
• Mobility is accompanied by increasing
internationalisation of labour markets, research, and
scientific activity
• Mobility is growing and competition for highly skilled is
increasing – getting domestic HRST supply policies right
is becoming more important