I. How Do American Elections Work?
a. What do elections do?
i. Select representatives
ii. Allow citizens to influence government
iii. Reward and punish lawmakers
In a typical election there is an incumbent and a challenger
b. Incumbent: a politician running for re-election to the office he already holds
c. Challenger: a politician running for an office that she does not hold at the time of the
election; challengers run against incumbents or in open-seat elections in which there is
no incumbent
Voters hold incumbents accountable by considering the incumbent’s past performance
when deciding for whom to vote.
Universal requirement to vote in US: Must be 18 or older
II. Two Stages of Elections
a. As for candidates, they must win two different elections to serve in office.
i. First, they must win the primary election, made up of other candidates from the same
political primary.
1. Open primary— any registered voter can vote
2. Closed primary— only those in a particular party can vote
ii. Second, they must win the general election.
1. Primary strategy: more extreme positions to appeal to ideologically committed voters
2. General election strategy: more moderate positions to appeal to swing voters
A recent trend in both primary and general elections is early voting before the actual
election day. (a method used to try to improve turnout)
Also, Voters who are unable to go to the polls on Election Day, may cast a vote early
through an absentee ballot, even without an excuse in some states
Two types of voting: Plurality and Majority
Congressional general elections are usually conducted using the plurality system,
where the candidate with the most votes whens, even if he does not get a majority of
the votes.
No run-off election when plurality system used.
In the general election for the U.S. House of Representative officeholders are
elected: in single
member districts by a plurality of the vote.
Majority Voting: Candidate must get 50% + 1 to win. If no one gets a majority there is a
runoff election between just the two top finishers in the initial election.
Majority voting often used in primary elections. If no candidate gets a majority of
the vote, a run-off election is then held to determine the party’s candidate.
ELECTION ISSUES:
Under Votes: The number of votes for the candidates adds up to less than the number
of ballots cast.
An Under Vote occurs when a voter casts an unmarked ballot.
Touch Screen Voting: becoming increasingly popular, but these machines are
controversial due to
a. the costs of the machines
b. the potential for delays on Election Day
c. voter difficulties that often come with new technologies
d. concerns that the machines could be manipulated to change election outcomes
Recount: A close election may result in a recount. This typically occurs when the margin
of victory for the winning candidate is one percent or less.
ELECTION RULES: May have an impact on an election outcome, most likely in a close
race where a small change in the votes cast may impact the result.
Will voter ID requirements, where applicable, have any impact election outcomes?
NOTE: US District Court just ruled that Texas Voter ID law is unconstitutional. Texas
will appeal to the 5th Circuit Federal Appeals Court.
What Parties Provide
Ballot Placement
Logistics such as Mailings to list of targeted voters
Phone Banks
Money
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Primaries: Step One: Held in most states (Some states, IOWA for one, have caucuses
instead)
The purpose of the primaries and caucuses is to determine the number of delegates a
candidate will have at each party’s national nominating convention.
The Democratic Party use(s) proportional allocation rules in all primaries and
caucuses, while
the Republican Party uses a combination of proportional allocation and winner-takeall to determine convention delegates.
Under the rules of proportional allocation, a candidate who received 40 percent of
the vote in a state with 50 delegates at stake would get roughly 20 delegates.
The methodology used for determining delegates can have a major impact on which
candidate succeeds in getting the nomination. For instance:
Popular vote in 2008 Dem primaries : essential tie between Clinton and Obama
Delegates: clear advantage for Obama
Republicans 2008: McCain wins 47 percent of the vote and 72 percent of the
delegates
Primary nuts and bolts
January – May of election year
a. Front- loading – The earliest primaries have disproportionate importance.
Traditionally, the first primary in the nation is in: New Hampshire
Traditionally, the first caucus in the nation is in: Iowa
National Committees set guidelines for primary dates, but states may decide to
deviate.
Ultimately - each state may chose the date it wishes to hold the primary electiion
b. Super Tuesday – Date of the largest number of primaries
The National Convention
a. Formally selects candidate (Selection of candidate actually determined by primary
results)
b. Introduces vice presidential candidate (Chosen by Presidential nominee)
c. Party platform
d. attracting attention for the party’s electoral goals
Counting Presidential Votes: THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE 538 ELECTORAL VOTES
To be elected President must win a majority 270 VOTES TO WIN
Electors awarded by a state’s number of House and
Senate members
TX 38, CA 55, NY 29, FL 29
Most states award all of their electoral votes on a winner take all basis
Nebraska and Maine are unique. Those 2 states award electoral votes by
congressional district (and two for the state’s overall popular vote): 2008 - Nebraska
gave 1 electoral vote to Barack Obama and 4 to John McCain in 2008
SWING STATES are those where the Democrats won the state in some presidential
elections and the Republicans won in others in the last 4 elections (2000, 20004, 2008,
2012). NH, NM, IA, NV, CO, MN, IN, VA, NC, OH, FL
These states are seen as
being competitive for both parties.
Remaining states have been either solid Democrat or solid Republican since 2000.
HOW DOES THIS IMPACT CAMPAIGNING TO WIN THE PRESIDENCY?
IF no candidate receives a majority of the electoral college votes? The House of
Representatives decides who wins, with each state getting one vote, and voting
continues until someone gets a majority of the votes. Last happened in 1824.may
A candidate get a majority of the electoral vote without getting a majority of popular
vote: Bill Clinton in 1992
A candidate may even lose the popular vote and yet receive a majority of the electoral
vote: George W. Bush in 2000. (540,000 fewer popular votes than Al Gore)
ELECTORAL CAMPAIGNS (CONGRESS)
Candidates, parties, and interest groups all start thinking about the
next election on the day after the last one! The election cycle lasts
about two years . . . we now live in what many scholars call an era of
the permanent campaign. (actions officeholders take throughout the election
cycle to build support for their reelection
Setting the stage
Potential candidates consider whether to run. After one election cycle ends, potential
challengers for office in the next cycle immediately start thinking about
which seats look vulnerable
Is the incumbent retiring? (open seat - A district with no sitting legislator running
for reelection)
Is the incumbent vulnerable? (competitive district/state)
Are national tides moving in one direction? (economy)
Money primary (incumbents and challengers)
Sufficient funding needed for
successful campaign. Incumbent officeholders routinely raise significant sums of
money to discourage high-quality potential challengers from running.
Before the campaign
Incumbents try to keep constituents happy
The “political business cycle”— this suggests that elected officials may attempt to
manipulate the economy to grow around election time, encouraging positive
retrospective evaluations
Anticipate their own weak spots
The formal general election campaign
Begins in early September (after Labor Day)
Candidates commonly use professional consultants
a. consultants help develop and execute campaign strategies
b. consultants manage and run public opinion polls
c. consultants assemble ads and buy television time for the candidate
d. consultants handle media relations and talk with members of the media
BUT:
Super PACs
consultants cannot be used to coordinate campaign activities with
Name recognition
Because many voters know fairly little about congressional candidates (especially
challengers), a common campaign strategy is to: improve the candidate’s name
recognition among likely voters
Something modern candidates will not do is staying “above the fray” by not dignifying an
opponent’s false attack with a response
Voter mobilization: Get Out the Vote (GOTV)
An important activity of any campaign is mobilizing supporters, which most directly
involves the ground game (Getting out the vote on election day)
INTERNET – Most campaigns to day utilize an Internet consultant. Internet social
media sites play an important role in campaigns for all of the following reasons
.
informing supporters of a candidate’s issue positions
helping to recruit new supporters
informing supporters of a candidate’s upcoming event or appearance
organizing large numbers of volunteers
BUT NOT: providing the candidate with accurate political information and poll results
Candidate’s Platform
Presents stances on the relevant issues and indicates how candidate will act in
office (promises)
A candidate’s platform is important for all of the following reasons:
a. to mobilize supporters b. to gain interest group endorsements
c. to attract campaign volunteers
d. to raise campaign funds
BUT: Candidate does not have to have a platform to be on the ballot to
run for office
In recent years democratic candidates have found it necessary to take liberal
issue positions in primary elections and be more centrist in general elections.
(Republicans just the opposite, conservative in primaries and centrist in general
elections)
Opposition research
In an effort to raise doubts about their opponents as much as they draw attention
to their own
records, candidates almost all use opposition research as a key
part of their campaign strategy.
Trackers
a campaign staff member who follows an opponent in order to record his or her
slipups and embarrassments (ex. former Sen. George Allen’s “maccaca” incident in
campaign vs. Jim Webb)
Campaign Advertising
Candidates tend to air positive ads about themselves while political parties and
supportive interest groups air negative ads attacking the candidates’ opponents.
Attack Ads
Candidates who are behind in election polls often use attack ads as a way to
gain momentum and make the race competitive.
Some political scientists argue that Negative Ads act to lower voter turnout, but
others disagree.
According to the textbook there is recent evidence that
negative ads can help voters learn more policy information about candidates and
highlight differences between them.
LBJs Daisy Ad is the granddaddy of negative ads
Of the many billions of dollars spent during each election cycle for federal office,
most of the money goes to thirty-second television ads.
Impact of Advertising
People become more interested in the campaign.
People become aware of differences between candidates.
People know more about the candidates.
People are sometimes mobilized to vote.
BUT research shows that people are not likely to change their minds due to
advertising (greatest impact on undecided voters).
CAMPAIGN FINANCE
Federal Election Commission is in charge of administering election laws
Hard money (money to help elect/defeat specifi c candidates)
Soft money (money used for mobilization and party building) – cannot be tied to
supporting or
opposing a specific candidate.
More restrictions/limitations on hard money than on soft money.
But a Party Committee and, after the Citizens’s United decision, corporations
and unions may
spend an unlimited amount to elect or defeat a candidate so long
as the expeditures are not controlled by, directed, or approved by a specific candidates
campaign.
Table 7.1 p. 208
Few if any restrictions on soft money today.
The Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, aka McCain-Feingold was implemented in 2002
and restricted soft money spending by unions and corporations. The 2010 Supreme
Court decision in Citizen’s United v Federal Election gutted McCain-Feingold and
removed all restrictions on soft campaign funding by corporations and labor unions.
Campaign finance regulations seek to balance the conflict between:the First
Amendment and the public interest served by restricting wealthy interests from
dominating what voters hear during the election
Limits on campaign finance are challenging to implement due to the free- speech
concerns. According to current prevailing Supreme Court precedents, MONEY =
SPEECH and CORPORATIONS ARE PEOPLE.
FUNDING OGANIZATIIONS
Political Action Committee (PAC): Utilized by a corporation or organization such
as a labor union
to support or oppose specific candidates. (Hard Money)
527s and 501(c)(4)s: May accept and spend unlimited amounts of soft money,
but cannot use funds on behalf of a specific candidate.
MAJOR DIFFERENCE: 501(c)(4) groups, unlike 527 groups, do not have to
disclose the names of their donors
FUNDING PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS
Starting in 1976 Presidential Campaigns could receive Government Funding
provided the candidate agreed to a campaign spending cap.
All major candidates declined for the 2008 and 2012 primaries.
Obama declined Government Funding in 2008 general election and McCain took
Government Funding. Obama was able to outspend McCain by nearly 2 to 1
margin.
2012 Obama and Romney both declined Government funding, spending by the
campaigns was almost equal with Romney having a slight advantage.
HOW DO VOTERS DECIDE
The decision to vote
Paradox of voting— why vote when your one vote will not make a difference in who
wins?
Voting Age Population (VAP): All over 18
Voting Eligible Population (VEP)
Registered Voters
,
Turnout higher in presidential years than in midterm years
Registered voters turnout about 65– 70 percent in presidential election years,
Turnout around 55 percent if measured by VAP
Around 60 percent if measured by VEP.
WHY SOME VOTE AND OTHERS DO NOT
 Education: Individuals who have more formal schooling are more likely to
vote.
 Income level: Individuals who have higher incomes are more likely to vote.
 Age: Older citizens more likely to vote while the youngest voters have the
lowest turnout rate.
65 -74 most likely to vote (over 70%)
Younger individuals are more likely to change residence frequently.
Have fewer ties to the community.
May not see election issues as relevant.
 Civic attitudes (Often acquired from parents)
 Apathy (Lack of interest)
 Alienation (Turned off, disenchanted)
EX. Many white, working-class citizens failed to vote in the 1968
and 1972 elections because they felt alienated by civil rights being
addressed as a priority concern of government
 Civic duty (Citizens with a strong sense of civic duty are more likely
to vote)
 Political interest and party identification
WHY SOME STATES HAVE HIGHER TURNOUT
 Two-party competition: States that have two strong parties, as opposed to one
strong and one weak party, tend to have higher voter participation.
ETHNICITY
 Despite a decreasing gap, African-Americans are still less likely to vote than
whites.
 But, African-American turnout exceeded White turnout in the 2012 election
 Turnout for Hispanics and Asian Americans is low because many are not yet
citizens.
GENDER
 Before 1980 more men then women voted.
 Since 1984 women have been voting at a higher rate than men.
According to the text turnout is lower among those angry with government . . .the very
people who would prefer a change with respect to those who hold elective office!
One’s partisanship is the single best predictor of one’s vote.
OTHER REASONS
Incumbency – Incumbents usually win when running for reelection
Receiving help from a lawmaker
When a voter supports a candidate because the candidate has provided the voter
with assistance in the past the voter is using a personal vote cue.
Candidate’s personal traits (gender, race, age, religious beliefs)
Retrospective evaluations
Focusing on votes cast by the incumbent or performance of duties
A candidates fund raising ability generally is not a factor that determines how individuals
vote.
Voters can vote straight or split- ticket ballots . . . some scholars believe that voters like
to “balance” government by voting for one party’s presidential candidate and the other
party’s candidates for Congress.
Coattails
a popular president generates additional support for legislative candidates and helps
them gain office?
Nationalized elections are rare, but they did occur in 2006 and 2010
2006 – Democrats benefitted
2010 – Republicans benefitted
Consequences to the results of elections.
2000: IRAQ
2008: Affordable Healthcare Act
2010/2012: Deadlock in Federal Government
Political scientists James Avery and Mark Peffley have shown that states where lowerclass (economically speaking) voters come to the polls in similar numbers to wealthier
voters, lawmakers who are less likely to pass anti- welfare policies are elected. In other
words, when poorer voters come to the polls, their economic interests are represented
by state lawmakers.