Theory of Change
Articulating your project’s design
theory
Design Theory?
• What is it that you are trying to do?
• How will it deliver a change in something and
what are your assumptions?
• What are the conditions that need to be in
place for that change to happen?
• How will the change in something address the
problems that you have identified?
The results chain
Management control diminishes
Internal perspective (M)
Inputs
Physical & financial
resources
Activities/
Process
Processes which
turn Inputs into
Outputs
External perspective (E)
Outputs
Operational changes
(new skills or
abilities, the
availability of new
products and
services).
Outcome
Behavioural or
institutional/
changes in
response to the
outputs
Impact
Progress towards
thematic priorities
External factors become more important
3
Programme Logical Hierarchy
Theory of Change
(more intermediate steps in the chain)
Make explicit the assumptions
and context in the theory
• What is the real world context
• Sequential process of change
reaches impact
• The project works within a wider
context
• What are the assumptions about
how the change happens, consider
dependencies
• Are the directions of change unidirectional
• What evidence do you have to
support your assumed theory
Example – the Darwin ToC
Output 1: Good robust
applications based on excellent
understanding of the drivers of
biodiversity loss and
mechanisms to drive biodiversity
gains are received and funded
Output 2: Collaborations between
the world's experts in biodiversity
conservation and poverty support
developing countries to build their
capacity and to address
biodiversity conservation and its
linkages with poverty alleviation
Output 3: Activities undertaken
contribute to better
understanding of ways of
addressing drivers of biodiversity
loss and & supporting drivers of
biodiversity gain.
Output 4: Projects improve the
conservation of biodiversity in
developing countries by
addressing drivers of biodiversity
loss &supporting drivers of
biodiversity gain.
Assumption:
Darwin
continues to
receive support
from Govt
Success Driver: Programme calls
are designed to attract high quality
projects that can address the issues
of biodiversity loss and drivers of
Assumption:
Well designed
projects = well
implemented
projects
Assumption:
Projects can meet
eligibility criteria
Success Driver: Application decision making
remains based on current understanding of
best practice conservation and its
relationships with poverty alleviation
including from the Darwin Initiative
programme successes
Sphere of Darwin Initiative's influence
Assumption:
Defra can attract
world experts to
DEC
Assumption:
Partnerships
demonstrated at
appl are true
representations
Assumption:
Brain drain
doesn't lead to
loss of regional
experts
Success Driver: M&E contractor distils the lessons
learnt on success drivers in Darwin projects and
packages into public domain friendly format for
stakeholders (i.e. Inc. DEC, Defra, conservation
community future applicants)
Developing country partners
reflected in DEC membership?
Success Driver: Developing country
partners become leaders in their
field nationally, regionally and
internationally
Success Driver: Transfer of
knowledge and expertise is effected
and applied through Darwin
Success Driver: Darwin projects
further understanding at national,
regional and international level of
ways to make progress to achieve the
Conventions
Success Driver: Darwin projects
engage with partners to put
knowledge into practice to effect
Assumption:
Projects report on
+ve and -ve results
Assumption:
Practitioners look
to Darwin to
inform their
practice
Assumption:
Drivers of
biodiversity
loss/gain are
addressed not just
Success Driver: Darwin projects
boost conservation in locale
targeted
Success Driver: Application
decisions made using learning and
results from Darwin M&E
programme that illustrates drivers
of success in Darwin projects
Assumption: DEC
have the time and
resources to
digest results of
Assumption:
Conventions remain on
same trajectory & with
at least same signatories
Developing countries better able to meet their
obligations under the three biodiversity
conventions (CITES, CBD and CMS).
Biodiversity losses show reduced trends in
countries targeted by Darwin funding
Success Driver: Evidence of
improved capacity and resource
allocation within national structures
Poverty (as a driver of biodiversity losses and
gains) shows a reduction in areas targeted by
Darwin funding
Success Driver: Results of Darwin
projects evidenced in policy (small p
and large P)
Positive interactions facilitated
through Darwin funded
projects? Or Darwin events?
World's biodiversity is conserved for generations
to come
Poverty and all that it entails is no longer a threat
to the health and well-being of the World's
population
Assumption:
Possible to measure
change in biod in
lifetime of
project/programme
Success Driver: Conservation benefits
evidenced on a wider scale through
interaction with Darwin projects
Success Driver: Darwin projects
influence the way in which
conventions are implemented/acted
on by others (govt, NGOs etc.)
Group Exercise
• Review Inputs and Impacts – what goes on in the
‘missing middle’?
• Are there other necessary steps – what causes
what to move from intervention to outcome?
• Are there other necessary steps – what causes
what to move from outcome to impact?
• Think about the ARROWS what are the critical
assumptions that need to be considered • What are the areas of risk and uncertainty?