Foundations of Business Strategy Final Project: NCSoft To: Taek jin Kim, CEO – NCSoft From: Salvo D. – Business Analyst and strategist Re: Strategic Analysis – Overview Date: 09/04/2013 Introduction to the company NCSoft is the largest video game company in Korea and an international online game operator. It was founded in 1997 and focus on online game business (It also publishes some casual games, but this market is limited to a regional spread). Today, NCSoft , is home to numerous industry-leading franchises, like Aion, City of Heroes, Guild Wars and Lineage. Industry Overview The online video game industry is, in fact, a fast-growing industry characterized by high business margin, low cultural barriers and a multi-year business cycle (in contrast with the normal video game market that has yearly business cycles). According to marketing researches Online is the fastest growing game platform with a compound annual growth rate (from now on CAGR) of 21% in the period analyzed 20092014. China is the biggest online game market with CAGR 23% in the period 2009-2014. The new tablet, and hi-tech phones industry impressive growth, made possible the creation of a new online mobile game market. Though this market is in its expansion period, online game industry is actually the much faster growing game platform. Talking about genres, MMORPG is the most favored in China with 50%-60% market share. Just like China, online will serve as the most dominant game platform in Korea as well, making up 88%-89% of Korean gaming market through 2014. So, while Console market is shrinking, online is expected to grow faster than Mobile (CAGR 17% vs CAGR 10%) and MMORPG genre is expected to expand continuously in EU on the back of strong user base in Germany. Executive Summary In the early years, NCSoft, decided to focus on regional/country market and quickly began to play the dominant role in its industry. So the decision was, at first to grow in an economy that the company knows well in terms of tastes, uses and traditions. If we have to refer as the whole world to define NCSoft positioning we must say that this way of acting make it seems like adopted a “niche” position. Many of the products that the company offers in his early years were limited to the South Korean/ Asian market. Lineage and Guild Wars are the most important titles NCSoft has to offer. With Guild Wars and especially Guild Wars 2 NCSoft brought a massive innovation to the industry and a big threat to the world market leader Activision Blizzard Inc. and its World of Warcraft online game. Before the release of Guild Wars 2, there were only subscription fee online games and other low-qualitative actors that tried to reach the glory gained from “WoW” trying to imitate gameplay, interface, storytelling, etc… But the Activision Blizzard’s monster was too strong, economically and humanly, even to have a worthy rival. The release of Guild Wars 2(GW2) brought the entire MMORPG (massive multiplayer online role playing game) industry in the mature phase of the competitive life cycle graph. GW2 had all of the features that WoW’s rivals didn’t in term of quality and competitiveness and had no subscription fees. This sounded like revolution. The main strategy of NCSoft with the introduction of Guild Wars 2 was to penetrate the international MMORPG market and doing this shaking up the industry with one of its main capabilities: Innovation. Removing subscription fees for such a quality product put NCSoft in a condition of competitive advantage among its competitors and most important against the market undisputed leader WoW. But this maneuver also put the company in a position that can be difficult to sustain. So the principal revenues, in this case, came from the sale of game copies (digital, boxed or deluxe edition), fast development of several new expansions for the game and the so called “micro-transactions”. "You, the customer, get to decide how much money you spend on the game after launch, based on how compelling it is to you. You get a complete and playable game no matter what, but we think we can provide additional content and services that you'd be happy to pay for. And when you pay for them, you help fund our support of Guild Wars 2 in a way that benefits all players of the game", wrote ArenaNet (development studio property of NCSoft) cofounder Mike O'Brien on his company's blog. Data in the NCSoft financial statements and reports show us an impressive growth of the EU market (from 2% in the 4th quarter of 2011 to 18% sales in the 4th quarter of 2012) and the US market (from 5% in the 4th quarter of 2011 to 25% sales in the 4th quarter of 2012) since the release of the game. These reports also show that GW2 represent the 45% of the revenues that are related to the MMORPG industry (followed by Lineage with 24% and Blade & Soul in the 3rd position with 10%). Games like Lineage 2 and Aion paid this revolution with reduced sales. The 4th quarter of 2012 recorded historical high quarterly revenues on the back of strong L1, GW2, and mobile games. Operating profit in the 4th quarter was also the highest operating profit of all time, thanks to limited increase in expenses. What the future will bring Recently, NCSoft, made some strategic moves that let investor understand what could be its plan for the future: 1. Sold stock to Nexon – receiving 74 million dollars from the acquisition. 2. Shut some unprofitable MMORPG. 3. Plan to release 2 or more MMORPG in 2013. One of this will be a brand new Lineage Game (revised and with a lot of innovation in it). Five forces Analysis – Synthesis Substitutes: non-online video games (console and pc) New Entry: A lot of potential entrants Main Competitor: Activision Blizzard Buyers' power: moderatehigh Suppliers' power: Low Activision Blizzard is the main competitor in the American and European Market. In 2000s NCSoft acquired Arenanet and in 2005 released Guild Wars. That was a clear signal of the internationalization strategy. Compared to the American colossus, NCSoft is still too young and can’t truly compete in terms of costs and revenues. Another main competitor could be EA, brand new incoming company in this industry. That’s actually another problem of the industry. Potential entries can manifest anytime, also due to low barriers to entrance. NCSoft principal substitute for its markets are basically console and pc videogames. From a study we know that 70% of the players always wait new console titles to play, but, after they finish them, they come back to the online games. That’s mostly because the competitive life cycle of the online videogames is much longer (5-7 years) than the one of offline games (1 year). Offline Video Game Mature phase: 7th month to 12th Emergent phase: pre-release to 1 month Growth phase: 2nd month to 6th month Online video Games Mature phase: 5th year to 6th Emergent phase: pre-release to 1 year Growth phase: 2nd year to 4th year Power of suppliers is really limited, since most of the activities required to create a game are internally integrated. Power of Buyers in this kind of market could be moderate or high if we’re referring either to distributors or final clients. Digital downloads for the game limit the power of the distributors, but final clients and customer must be heard and their dreams and wishes have to be translated and put into the game to win this industry war. Conclusion NcSoft is a young reality, which always tries to listen to its targets, customers, and to satisfy them by innovate either their products or their competitive strategy. Choosing to manage multiple online games at once is useful, in terms of strategy, because they can put into effect a cross-game promotion cutting off marketing costs. Entering the EU and US markets let NCSoft to extremely raise their revenues. Their final goal is to achieve leadership in this industry, but to reach that purpose they have to face Activision blizzard in a face-to-face battle and stay alert for possible new entrants. My recommendations are: 1. To continue the development of online video games internationally, mostly the ones that are the cores of NCSoft Business (Lineage, Aion, Guild wars 2, Wildstar); 2. to abandon the ones that has very little market share; 3. to continue with this innovation trends, invest in R&D and marketing researches; 4. Develop mobile games for the EU/US market (so entering in this new market and gain sharing from it too), to further expand revenues. 5. Monitoring the market for fusions/acquisitions opportunities. Thank you for your attention Best regards Salvo Davì, Business Analyst & Strategist [email protected] PS: Addendum and references to follow. Addendum Growth projection by Platform 140 120 USD BN 100 PC 80 Arcade 60 Console 40 Mobile 20 Online 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year Breakdown of Online by regions China Korea Europe US Japan Others 1 2 4 0 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 3 1 1 3 3 6 1 1 3 3 4 5 2009 2010 2011 4 4 9 11 7 4 7 1 2 4 8 10 11 2012 2013 2014 Market share trend in EU 120 100 80 % 60 40 20 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Casual game 50 49 44 43 41 MMORPG 50 51 56 57 59 NCSoft Sales by region 300000 16823 250000 Royalty 200000 Taiwan 14922 150000 Japan Europe 14337 100000 US Korea 50000 0 4Q 2011 3Q 2012 4Q 2012 NCSoft sales by game Unit: Krw in MN 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 4Q 2011 3Q 2012 4Q 2012 8220 10219 14239 GW2 0 45841 119013 B&S 0 32662 26904 Aion 51729 26940 25057 Lineage II 24731 13300 16456 Lineage 39952 38306 64861 Others References 1. http://global.ncsoft.com 2. “ArenaNet Explains Guild Wars 2 Microtransactions” from the escapist. http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/116439-ArenaNet-Explains-GuildWars-2-Microtransactions 3. MMO trend reports from newzoo. http://www.newzoo.com/trend-reports/mmotrend-report/ 4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_massively_multiplayer_online_roleplaying_games#General_information 5. Global online game report 2012. http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/2126935/global_online_gaming_repor t_2012 6. Iresearch.com 7. Google finance 8. www.spaziogames.it
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