WHERE ARE WE TODAY
• 241 U.S. Outlet Centers (give or take)
• Roughly 80 different owners
• Large owners are Simon, Tanger, Horizon, Craig Realty, The Was Group,
EWB Development, AWE Talisman, CBL, Macerich, Taubman, Glimcher
• 30 New Centers over past 4 Years (15% growth)
• 10 New Centers in 2014; 66 Centers in Development
• Dynamic and Changing
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HOW DID WE GET HERE
Pre-Recession 2000’s
• Simon bought Chelsea in 2004
• Still, Lifestyle Centers were really the only thing that mattered in the
mall development world
• 1 to 3 new outlet centers were being built a year
• Primarily focused on tourist markets or on periphery of major metros
• Centers were built in places like Atlantic City, Las Vegas, Charleston,
Seattle, El Paso, McAllen, Wisconsin Dells, Chicago, Philadelphia etc.
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HOW DID WE GET HERE
Heart of Recession (2008-2009)
• Outlet Centers Hold Up (what Lifestyle Center?)
• 2008 Simon Mall Portfolio (-4.3%);
• 2008 Premium Outlet Portfolio +1.8%
• 2009 Simon Mall Portfolio (-1.8%)
• 2009 Premium Outlet Portfolio +5.8%
Post-Recession (2010+)
• Every Developer: “We Better Get In This Outlet Game!”
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HOW DID WE GET HERE
2006 to 2009: Proposed Lifestyle Centers (2009 Began Tracking Outlet Centers)
350
Proposed Lifestyle Centers
300
RECESSION
250
200
150
100
50
0
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HOW DID WE GET HERE
2010 to 2014: Proposed Lifestyle Centers and Outlet Centers
80
Proposed Lifestyle Centers
Proposed Outlet Centers
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
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HOW DID WE GET HERE
28 New Outlet Centers in Past 3 Years
Newly Built Outlet Centers By Year
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
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HOW DID WE GET HERE
Why Build? Just Put Outlet In The Name
• Great Lakes Crossing
Great Lakes Crossing Outlets
• Block at Orange
The Outlets at Orange
• The Legends Village West
Legends Outlets Kansas City
• Legends at Sparks Marina
Outlets at Sparks
• Jersey Gardens
Outlet Collection Jersey Gardens
• SuperMall of the Great NW
Outlet Collection Seattle
• Louisiana Boardwalk
Outlets at Louisiana Boardwalk
• The Pike at Long Beach
Outlets at The Pike
• St. Louis Mills
St Louis Outlet Mall
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WHAT IS DRIVING OUTLET MALLS TO CERTAIN
MARKETS?
1. Which Markets Don’t Have an Outlet Yet?
2. Which Markets Are Still Operating on the Old Model?
3. Which Markets Are Big Enough to Support Multiple
Outlet Centers?
WHAT’S LEFT?
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WHAT IS DRIVING OUTLET MALL LOCATIONS
1. Which Markets Don’t Have an Outlet Yet?
Recent Examples:
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St. Louis
Oklahoma City
Louisville
Birmingham
Jackson, MS
Syracuse, NY
Coming Soon? Are We Getting Too Small?
Examples:
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Tucson
Tulsa
Little Rock
Anchorage
Grand Rapids
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Savannah
Corpus Christi
Des Moines
Memphis
Richmond
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Asheville
Springfield, IL
Coeur d’Alene
Augusta, GA
Tyler, TX
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WHAT IS DRIVING OUTLET MALL LOCATIONS
1. Which Markets have an Outlet but not close to
town (Old Model)?
Recent Examples:
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Houston
Charlotte
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Twin Cities
Atlanta
Rosemont
National Harbor (DC)
Coming Soon? What is too far away?
Examples:
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Hartford
Columbus
Indianapolis
Detroit
Sacramento
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New York
San Francisco
Houston
Miami
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WHAT IS DRIVING OUTLET MALL LOCATIONS
1. Which Markets Can Support Multiple Outlet
Centers?
Recent Examples:
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Houston (2nd center)
DC (2nd center)
Dallas (2nd center)
Phoenix (2nd & 3rd center)
Boston (2nd & 3rd center)
Atlanta (2nd center)
Coming Soon? How Close Can They Locate?
Examples:
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Houston (3rd center)
DC (3rd center)
Dallas (3rd center)
Denver (2nd center)
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Tampa (2nd center)
Seattle (2nd center)
San Francisco, NY, LA,
etc.
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WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE
• 6 to 10 Outlet Centers built in the U.S. in each of next 3 to 4
Years
• Smaller Markets and Closer Spacing
• Sensitivity is dead – Outlet centers can go anywhere
• Driven by retailer demand
• The principles of good real estate still apply (can’t just go anywhere)
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TWO GAME CHANGING CENTERS
Fashion Outlets of Chicago at Rosemont
• Regional Mall Location
• In-board of existing outlet centers
• 10 miles in-board of Woodfield
Mall; 8 miles from Old Orchard Mall
• Indoor Outlet Center
• Interior design/seating/finishes
similar to Regional Mall standards
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TWO GAME CHANGING CENTERS
The Outlets at Assembly Row
• Mixed-Use Project (includes office
and apartments above retail).
• 2 miles from downtown Boston located on the T Line
• Includes entertainment – AMC
Theater, Lego Discovery Center
• Includes Restaurants – Earl’s
Kitchen, Legal Seafood, etc.
• Outlet Lifestyle Center
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TWO POTENTIAL GAME CHANGERS
On-Line Outlet Product
• Growing number of retailers
selling their outlet product on-line
through their own websites
• In addition to selling through
Amazon and flash-sale sites
• TJ Maxx on-line is seeing strong
sales growth
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TWO POTENTIAL GAME CHANGERS
Outlet Retailers are Locating
Outside of Outlet Centers
• Street Retail
• Value Oriented Strip- Centers
» 155 Nordstrom Rack Locations
» 1,100 TJ Maxx and 900
Marshalls Locations
NIKE Factory Store in Strip Center in Louisville, KY
» 1,100 Ross Stores
• B Malls
J Crew Factory Store at Plymouth Meeting Mall
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TWO POTENTIAL GAME CHANGERS
Outlet Retailers with Street and Strip Center sites
GAP Factory Store Locations in NYC (No Traditional Outlet Malls)
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TWO POTENTIAL GAME CHANGERS
Outlet Retailers in Value Centers (Typical New Hybrid-Center)
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