International and National
Abatement Strategies for
Transboundary air
Pollution
New concepts and methods for effect-based
strategies on transboundary air pollution
International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution
ASTA General objectives
• To produce scientific material of importance for
international abatement strategies of
transboundary air pollution
•Support the revisions of the Gothenburg
Protocol and the NEC directive
•To develop tools for national strategies within
sectors where transboundary air pollution is of
importance.
International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution
Phase 1: 1999 - 2002
•Source effect relationships
•Dynamic modelling of acidification
•Experimental studies on eutrophication
•Ozone level 2 for crops and forests
•Regional particle composition
•Social science. Interlink between science and policy
•Centre for evaluation and assessment
International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution
ASTA Synthesis Report
Available in pdf from
http://asta.ivl.se
NEW CONCEPTS AND METHODS FOR
EFFECT-BASED STRATEGIES ON
TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION
Or from Jenny Arnell
THE MISTRA PROGRAMME:
ASTA
[email protected]
INTERNATIONAL AND NATIONAL
ABATEMENT STRATEGIES FOR
TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION
Synthesis Report, August 2002
Editors: John Munthe, Peringe
Sverdrup and Göran Sundqvist
Grennfelt,
Harald
• Centre activities during phase 1
–
–
–
–
Saltsjöbaden workshop 2000
Expert group on dynamic modelling, 3 meetings
Workshop on validation of emission inventories
Workshop on CL for ozone effects to
vegetation
– EMEP assessment report
IAM - recovery of lakes, target load
function
25
S-deposition (meq/m2/yr)
20
Dep 1997
Dep 2010
15
CL 9999
TL 2050
TL 2040
10
TL 2030
TL 2020
5
Critical load and Target
Load Function
showing the combined
deposition levels of
sulphate and nitrate
at which the ANC >80
eq/l criteria is not
reached by 2020, 2030,
2040, 2050. Example for
one lake in central
Sweden
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
N-deposition (meq/m2/yr)
300
350
International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution
Acidification and recovery - modelling
forest soils
Regional dynamic
assessment of pH in
layer 2 at different
years using the
Gothenburg protocol
as the future deposition
scenario, assuming
constant deposition
between 2010 and 2100
International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution
110
Relative biomass
Relative biomass
Ground level ozone - relative growth in
relation to ozone uptake or concentration
110
100
100
90
80
70
90
80
70
0
20
40
60
daylight AOT40 (ppm h)
80
0
20
40
60
80
CUO (mmol m-2, proj)
Impact of ozone on the total biomass of young Norway spruce trees in
relation to daylight AOT40 and cumulative ozone uptake.The young
Norway spruce trees were exposed in open-top chambers during four
growing seasons to different ozone concentrations in combination with
drought stress and in combination with phosphorous deficiency.
International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution
Phase 2 of ASTA. 2003 - 2006
Programme
management
Source-effect
relations,
Indicators and
Target settings
Realisation,
Costs and Benefits
Uncertainty,
Transparency and
Communication
National
reference group
Support to
National Strategies
Phase 2 of ASTA. Four main
Themes
Theme 1. Source-effect relationships, indicators
and target setting
Theme 2. Realisation, costs and benefits
Theme 3. Uncertainties, transparency and
communication
Theme 4. Support to national strategies
International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution
Acdification
Ozone/veg.
Biodiversity
Particles/health
Choice of
indicator
Choice of
indicator
Test of
indicator
Test of
indicator
Uncert.
assessment
Mapping
Theme
3
1
Sourceeffect relations.
Dynamic model
development
Choice of
indicator
Test of
indicator
Scenario
studies
Cost Benefit
assessment
1&4
2&4
Theme 1.
1. Source-effect relationships, indicators and target
setting
Activities
1. Dynamic models for recovery from acidification
2. Implementing level II for ozone
3. Source-receptor relationships for long range
transported particles
4. Model development for assessing biodiversity
changes in terrestrial ecosystems and for combined
ecosystem effects
International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution
Theme 2.
2. Realisation, Costs and Benefits
Activities
1. Realisation of international agreements
EMEP Assessment report
2. Valuation of effects
Acidification
Ozone effects to trees and crops
3. Scenarios and control measures
International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution
Realisation, costs and benefits.
Deliverables (preliminary)
Assessment of costs and benefits of reduced
emissions and their economic value for
1. acidification,
2. ozone effects to crops and forests
Tentatively
3. nitrogen deposition,
4. atmospheric concentrations of pollutants.
Reports on linearity relations between emission
reductions, their costs and benefits.
International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution
Theme 3.
3. Uncertainties, transparency and communication
Activities
1. Scientific credibility in a complex society
2. Uncertainties in source effects relationships and their
influence on abatement strategies
3. Communication
4. Overall evaluation of regional air pollution strategies
International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution
Uncertainties, transparency and
communication. Deliverables
A conceptual model for how legitimacy is
achieved in the international negotiations on air
pollution including the roles of basic science,
integrated assessment models and the different
levels in the policy work.
An analysis of the relations between
uncertainties in data, compartment models and
integrated assessment models, and the
robustness in control scenarios.
International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution
Uncertainties, transparency and
communication. Deliverables
Model tool and assessments on uncertainties
within the area of ecosystem effects. Integrate
uncertainties in analyses of robustness in various
strategies.
A workshop on scientific production and
assessments in relation to the policy needs in
CAFE and CLRTAP - “Saltsjöbaden 2”.
Additional workshops
International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution
Support to national strategies.
Deliverables
Support to the revision of the Swedish national
environmental quality objectives
Assessment of particle emissions (amounts and
composition)
from
biomass-based
energy
production in comparison to other major sources.
Toolbox for regional assessment of sustainable
potential for harvest of biomass from forests
considering interactions with air pollution
International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution
Support to national strategies.
Deliverables
Model development and assessment of
interactions between air pollutants (nitrogen,
acidification, ozone), forestry and carbon sinks
in the forest ecosystem.
Assessment of long term effects of whole tree
harvesting on the recovery from acidification
and eutrophication in forest soils in Sweden.
International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution