Observed and simulated soil moisture variability over the Lower Mississippi Delta Region Georgy V. Mostovoy and Valentine G. Anantharaj Geosystems Research Institute, Mississippi State University, MS 39762 Journal of Hydrometeorology (In press) Geosystems Research Institute, Mississippi State University PO Box 9652, Mississippi State, MS, 39762, USA E-mail: [email protected] Abstract In order to better understand error and spatial variability sources of soil moisture simulated with land surface models, observed and simulated values of soil moisture (offline simulations with the Noah land surface model with four soil layers and approximately 1x1 km² horizontal resolution were used) were compared. This comparison between observed and modeled daily values of soil moisture was performed over the Lower Mississippi Delta region during summer/fall months spanning years 2004 to 2006. The Noah simulations covered 2.5º×2.5º latitude-longitude domain and were forced by the NLDAS atmospheric forcing fields. Hourly soil moisture measurements and other data, including local meteorological and soil physical properties data from twelve SCAN sites, were used. It was shown that both the observed and simulated level of soil moisture depend critically on the specified/sampled soil texture. Soil types with a relatively high observed clay content (more than 50% of weight) retain more water due to the low water diffusivity in comparison with silty/sandy soils having 20% or less of clay, provided that other conditions are the same. This fact is in agreement with previous studies and implies a strong soil texture control (through related hydraulic parameters, e.g. Richter et al. 2004; Braun and Schädler 2005) on the accuracy of simulated soil moisture. Sensitivity tests using the Noah model were performed to assess the impact of using the hydraulic parameters related to the site-specific soil texture on soil moisture quality. Indeed, at some SCAN sites, the errors (root mean square difference and bias) were reduced. Simulated soil moisture showed at least 50% reduction when the site-specific soil texture was used in Noah simulations instead of that derived from the STATSGO data. The most significant improvement of simulated soil moisture was observed within the top 0-10 cm layer where an original positive bias (an excessive wetness) was almost eliminated. At the same time, excessive dryness (negative soil moisture 2 bias), which was dominant within second and third model layers was also reduced. These improvements are expected to be valid at sites/regions with low (less than 0.3) vegetation fraction. 3 1. Introduction Soil moisture (SM) is a key variable of the land-atmosphere system, which along with other environmental variables controls the rate of evaporation from the surface and the partitioning of the moisture and energy fluxes across land-atmosphere interface. Hence, SM represents an important input for various environmental and hydrometeorological models. For that reason, accurate specification and prediction of the SM fields at different spatial scales (ranging from local to continental) is a practical need for hydrometeorological applications. The spatial density of available in-situ soil moisture measurements is not adequate to derive reliable area-averaged SM estimates in the range from 1 km to 10 km grid resolution used for initialization of mesoscale atmospheric models at regional or continental scales. Therefore, Land Surface Models (LSM) are commonly used to simulate initial soil moisture states (Crawford et al. 2000; Chen and Dudhia 2001). The first LSMs (also referred to as land surface parameterization schemes) were originated from rather simple but effective parameterization schemes of the land surface and vegetation processes (e.g. Deardorff 1978). They were developed to describe the lower boundary condition for the atmosphere in weather prediction and climate models. Based on the complexity of the physical processes, the various LSMs can be classified into single soil layer, force-restore (generally having two soil layers, e.g. Bosilovich and Sun, 1995), or multilayer diffusion type models, as suggested by Shao and Henderson-Sellers (1996). In virtually all current multilayer LSMs of moderate complexity, the vertical flow of water within the soil layer of a finite depth is described as a diffusion process (e.g. Capehart and Carlson 1994; Vitebro and Beljaars 1995; Liang et al. 1996; Smirnova et al. 1997; Irannejad and 4 Shao 1998; Walko et al. 2000; Chen and Dudhia 2001). The vertical distribution of soil moisture is obtained by a numerical integration of the one-dimensional diffusion-type equation, known as Richard’s equation in soil (Hillel 2004) and hydrology (Smith 2002) sciences, with specified water diffusivity (Dw) and hydraulic conductivity (Kw) coefficients and given boundary conditions at upper and lower boundaries of the soil column. These coefficients control the rate of the flow of water in the soils, considered as a vertically homogeneous porous media (typically non-saturated with water), so that the coefficients Dw and Kw depend on the SM content and the soil texture, which in turn is characterized by the distribution of soil particles sizes. Twelve major soil classes represented by the USDA soil texture triangle (Hillel 2004) are typically used in LSM schemes to describe a natural continuum of soil types observed across the globe. A power law having few empirically-derived parameters is usually assumed to describe the relationship between Dw and Kw coefficients and the SM (Smith 2002). This manner of analytical representation of Dw and Kw with constant parameters related to a particular soil texture class provides a universal and efficient approach for modeling the SM at any geographical location where the soil type is known. This surrogate methodology is widely applied although the parameterization of soil hydraulic properties based on a dominant soil texture observed within the model gridbox suffers from obvious uncertainties. It is evident that one of the restrictions of this approach is related to the use of a limited number of soil classes to describe a continuum of soil hydraulic properties. It can be expected that soil texture variations within boundaries of a particular texture class, observed at the local/field scale, may explain a substantial part of simulated SM errors. On the other hand, Baker (1978), studying variability of soil hydraulic properties, reasoned that soils with different textures could be grouped together based on similarities of their hydraulic properties. 5 Ek and Cuenca (1994) studied the sensitivity of surface fluxes to sample variations of the hydraulic parameters having a range of one standard deviation within a particular soil texture class (sandy loam was considered). The largest impact of these variations on surface fluxes was observed over the bare soil for dry and moderate soil moisture states. Cuenca et al. (1996) investigated the sensitivity of the surface layer temperature and fluxes with a single-column atmospheric model integrated for six hours to different shapes of functions describing soil hydraulic properties. Predictions using functions suggested by Clapp and Hornberger (1978) were compared with those simulated with hydraulic functions proposed by van Genuchten (1980), and results of this comparison showed moderate sensitivity of atmospheric surface layer variables to changes in hydraulic functions. The research mentioned above and similar sensitivity and validation studies with LSMs were focused on assessment of the atmospheric surface layer response (Pan and Mahrt 1987; Sridhar et al. 2002; Marshall et al. 2003) using in-situ measurements. Point SM simulations performed over a catchment in southeast Australia using the ECMWF land surface scheme (Richter et al. 2004) revealed that SM bias of this scheme could be reduced substantially by using point-specific soil hydraulic parameters, including wilting point, field capacity, and saturated soil conductivity. Simulated SM values may differ from the observed for a number of reasons. But one of these reasons may be due to the differences between hydraulic properties of the actual soil texture at the point location and those assigned in the LSM to the corresponding dominant texture class within the grid cell or element. The importance of soil hydraulic properties adjustment for better accuracy of simulated SM were demonstrated by Shao and Irannejad (1999) and Braun and Schädler (2005). These results imply that observed SM biases 6 are often modulated by the uncertainties in the selected soil hydraulic parameters (Richter et al. 2004). Only a few studies have been devoted toward the direct validation of simulated SM (Crawford et al. 2000; Robock et al. 2003; Richter et al. 2004). Little is known about the impact of hydraulic properties on spatial and temporal features of simulated SM although it is well established that soil porosity is an important factor, which controls the accuracy of the simulated values (Tischler et al. 2007) and spatial variations of observed (Yoo et al. 1998) soil moisture. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to examine the impact of the differences between the locally-sampled and the spatially-aggregated soil texture prescribed from the Soil Survey data on the accuracy of simulated soil moisture characteristics. It is also anticipated that this study will also be useful in the interpretation of observed spatial and temporal variability of SM fields; and thereby contributing toward a better understanding of the role of various factors influencing the spatial distribution of SM at a regional scale. Hourly SM observations and physical soil property measurements from twelve Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) sites located mainly over the Lower Mississippi Delta Region (SCAN 2007), or simply the Mississippi Delta, spanning the period from January 2004 to December 2006 were used in this study. The Mississippi Delta was chosen primarily because of the higher spatial density of SCAN sites located in the region, across the states of both Arkansas and Mississippi. Retrospective SM simulations were performed using the Noah LSM (Ek et al. 2003) for these sites to assess the impact of using local soil hydraulic properties related to a sitespecific soil texture on the quality of simulated SM. The Noah model, having a moderate level of complexity, is one of the widely used LSMs by the hydrometeorological community. 7 The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section two describes SM and other relevant data available from in-situ measurements at the SCAN sites in our domain. The salient aspects of SM estimation using the Noah model and validation of simulated SM against SCAN observations are presented in Section 3. Analysis of observed SM dynamics during dry-down periods is described in Section 4. Performance of the Noah model with different specifications of soil hydraulic properties is discussed in Section 5. Section 6 provides summary of the results and conclusions. It should be noted that a volumetric fraction of the water content expressed in percents [(water vol.)×100%/(soil vol.)] will be used as measurement units for the SM in this study. 2. Data description Soil moisture measurements from twelve SCAN sites (SCAN 2007) located across the Lower Mississippi Delta Region (including five in the state of Arkansas and seven in the state of Mississippi) were used for analysis and comparison with Noah LSM simulations. The geographical distribution of these sites within the study area is depicted in Fig. 1. The SM volumetric fraction is retrieved from water dielectric constant measured by the Hydra Probe II SM sensor (Stevens 2007) every hour at depths of 5 cm, 10 cm, 20 cm, 51 cm, and 102 cm. These depth levels and the layer thicknesses are depicted in Fig. 2b. This current study covers the 3-year period spanning from January 2004 to December 2006. In addition to soil moisture measurements, the USDA SCAN network also provides sitespecific data about physical parameters of the soils including texture, particle size distribution, 8 water retention, and others. These data represent mean values for soil layers with a different thickness in the range from about 10 cm to 30 cm, which depends on the location and depth. 3. Soil moisture simulations with Noah LSM a. Soil moisture prediction In the Noah model, the SM volumetric content (θ) is predicted by numerical integration of the following diffusion-type equation (Chen and Dudhia 2001): K w Dw S , t z z z (1) where S is a SM sink due to water uptake by plant roots; and z is a vertical coordinate oriented downward from the surface. Equation (1) describes a vertical flow of a fluid with constant density through soil pores within a rigid, isotropic, and homogeneous soil column (Brutsaert 2006) with Po and E specified at the upper boundary of this column. Po and E represent fluxes of precipitation (P) minus runoff (R) and water vapor (total evaporation) at the surface, respectively. They are typically expressed in kg/(m²s) units, or in equivalent units of mm/s. The water density in (1) is assumed to be 1 g/cm³. Dw According to Eq. (1), both the diffusion flux and the gravity flux Kw act to redistribute the water within the soil column. It is z assumed in (1) that the force of gravity is directed along the z-axis, so in case of rough terrain 9 with a moderate slope, the term involving Kw should be multiplied by cos (δ), where δ is the terrain slope angle (Capehart and Carlson 1994). A standard configuration of the Noah model with four soil layers (Chen and Dudhia 2001), with progressively increasing thickness from the top/surface layer, was used in the current study. Figure 2 shows the location and the thickness of these layers. The three top layers in the model may contain plant roots (only in these layers S ≠ 0), and the lowest 1-m layer serves as a water reservoir with a free gravitational drainage condition at its bottom. Soil water diffusion flux ( Dw ) is assumed to be zero across the lower boundary of the lowest layer. It should be z noted that before a numerical discretization of Eq. (1), it is integrated vertically within each layer, leading to the equation for layer-averaged tendencies of SM content. Further in the text, layer-averaged values of SM will be denoted by an over bar symbol. To evaluate a vertical derivative of θ, a linear z-dependence for values is usually adopted (Mahrt and Pan 1984). The total evaporation rate E in the Noah model is described as a sum of (a) direct evaporation from the top soil layer, (b) evaporation of the water intercepted by the canopy, and (c) evapotranspiration from the canopy. The first two components are linearly proportional to the potential evaporation (Ep) and (1-f), where f is the green vegetation fraction, and the evapotranspiration is proportional to fEp. The Ep term, representing an atmospheric evaporative demand, is evaluated from the surface energy balance using the approach suggested by Penman (e.g. Mahrt and Ek 1984). Only a fraction β = (1 w ) / ( f w ) of the rate (1- f)Ep is available for the direct evaporation from the ground surface in the model, where θw and θf are soil moisture content at wilting point and field capacity, respectively. Their values depend on the soil texture class. The β coefficient, aka the soil moisture availability (e.g. Smirnova et al. 1997), 10 provides a simple soil control on the evaporation rate associated with the atmospheric demand and was initially proposed by Deardorff (1978). The evapotranspiration may vary linearly between (1- f)Ep (when the soil moisture content ( 1 ) within the top model layer is equal to θf ) and zero if the surface layer soil moisture content is θw . In other words, evaporation from the soil stops if 1 = θw. A parameterization for canopy transpiration represented by S was described by Chen and Dudhia (2001). This parameterization scheme is a rather complex one, and it accounts for the interaction between the SM and the vegetation described by several parameters such as the minimal stomatal resistance (rmin), the Leaf Area Index (LAI), and others. Specifically, evaporation of water intercepted by the canopy is given by fαEp, and canopy evapotranspiration is expressed as f(1-α)Kv Ep. The coefficient α is represented by a power function of the canopy water content normalized by the maximum (saturated) capacity (e.g. Chen and Dudhia 2001; Smirnova et al. 1997). The coefficient Kv is determined by Kv = (ra + Δ)/( ra + rarcCh + Δ), where ra is related to the resistance of the atmospheric surface layer; Ch is the surface exchange coefficient; and Δ is a function of dq/dT (q is the air specific humidity at saturation and T is the air temperature). The canopy resistance rc is defined as rc = rmin/(LAI F), the function F changes within the range of 0-1 and takes into account influences of solar radiation, water vapor and soil moisture deficits, and air temperature on rc. More details on F were considered by Chen and Dudhia (2001). Direct measurements of Dw and Kw are time and labor intensive; therefore, for practical purposes of soil water flow modeling, the coefficients Dw and Kw are estimated from a capillary bundle theory (Mualem 1976). This simplified approach requires an analytical specification of 11 the relationship between θ and soil water potential (ψ), also known as a water retention function or curve (Smith 2002). In this case, both water diffusivity and hydraulic conductivity are expressed as a combination of power law functions having three or more parameters describing their shapes (e.g. Smith 2002). For each major USDA soil texture class these hydraulic parameters represent sample mean values with standard deviation of about 10%, obtained by a least-square fitting procedure of water retention measurements. For example, Rawls et al. (1982) published mean values and standard deviations of hydraulic parameters for 11 USDA texture classes based on numerous soil water retention measurements of samples taken from 32 states. Power law functions with empirically derived parameters reported by Clapp and Hornberger (1978) are used in the Noah model to describe θ–dependency of the soil hydraulic properties ψ, Kw, and Dw. Alternatively, these parameters describing the shape of ψ, Kw, and Dw functions can be obtained by applying an inverse modeling approach. The inverse modeling method is highly popular in the hydrological community and involves a solution for a minimization problem. Generally, a root mean square difference between observed and modeled variables, such as surface fluxes or the ground temperature Hogue et al. (2005), is subjected to minimization. A recent application of such an approach to find an optimal set of the input hydraulic parameters into the Noah model was described by Tischler et al. (2007). A marked improvement in error reduction of the locally simulated SM was reported when the default parameters were substituted by its optimal values (Tischler et al. 2007). Finally, it should be mentioned that similar to the SM estimation, the soil temperature is evaluated from the diffusion equation (Chen and Dudhia 2001) integrated in z over the same layers as in Eq. (1). The surface skin temperature (Ts) is calculated from the surface energy balance equation linearized in Ts. The soil temperature is held constant at the lower boundary 12 during integration. Both equations are numerically integrated in time, using an implicit scheme with a time step equal to 15 min. Pan and Mart (1987) have shown that even for a two-layer version of the Noah model, truncation errors associated with numerical differencing remained rather small: not exceeding 10% for the surface evaporation for clay soils if compared with higher vertical resolution simulations. Bosilovich and Sun (1998) also arrived at similar conclusions that surface fluxes were relatively less sensitive to the number of soil layers in a force-restore LSM. b. Previous validation studies of Noah LSM The Noah model and its components were rather extensively validated in the past using various observations obtained during special field experiments, such as FIFE (e.g. Chen et al. 1996). Many of these, as well as some of the recent validation studies of the Noah model have been focused on comparing the observed and simulated surface fluxes. Most of the recent validations were based on measurements available from the Oklahoma Mesonet (Brock et al. 1995). They include studies published by Sridhar et al. (2002), Luo et al. (2003), Marshall et al. (2003), Robock et al. (2003), and Chen et al. (2007). Sridhar et al. (2002) reported a good performance for the uncoupled Noah model based on surface fluxes validation over the state of Oklahoma during a one-year period. The Noah model coupled with an operational forecasting model (Black 1994) was comprehensively evaluated against the Oklahoma mesonet data by Marshall et al. (2003). They reported SM biases with a typical range of ±5% for the top 0-10 cm layer during July 1998, but biases exceeding 10% were also observed over some counties (see their Fig. 22). Chen et al. (2007) examined SM 13 biases averaged over the available mesonet stations and revealed almost no bias ( < 1%) for the top 0-10 cm layer and a substantial negative bias (-15%) for the 10-40 cm layer during the AprilJune 2002 period. They suggested explaining a slight wetness of the upper and excessive dryness of the lower layer by an inadequate specification of the hydraulic conductivity in the Noah model. It is important to note that most of the above validation studies revealed a non-zero bias of the simulated SM both at individual mesonet stations and for regionally averaged values as well. c. Noah/LIS set up The Noah LSM, available within the state-of-the-art Land Information System (LIS) developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (Peters-Lidard et al.; 2004, Kumar et al. 2006), was configured at 0.01×0.01 latitude-longitude resolution (about 1×1 km²) over a domain with an approximate latitude-longitude size of 2.5º×2.5º and covering the Lower Mississippi Delta region located mainly in the state of Mississippi (see Fig. 1). The LIS provides a common mechanism for the unified specifications of land topography, soil and vegetation parameters, and facilitates the running of various LSMs either regionally or globally. The Noah LSM (version 2.7.1) was used for soil moisture simulations with 4 standard layers in the soil shown in Fig. 2a. The soil texture was represented by CONUS-SOIL (Miller and White 1998) data based on USDA STATSGO database. The geographical distribution of STATSGO soil classes within the Noah/LIS integration domain is shown in Fig. 1. Only five texture classes (sandy loam, silt loam, silty clay loam, silty clay, and clay) are represented in the 14 model domain, as shown in Fig. 1. Clay soils (silty clay loam, silt clay, and clay) depicted in blue-green colors are dominant over the Mississippi Delta with a small quantity of sandy soils observed mainly along the Mississippi River (see Fig. 1). Sandy soils (sandy loam and silt loam) prevail to the east and west of the Mississippi Delta, so there is a clear contrast of the soil texture between the Delta and adjacent territories. The vegetation/land use description used in the Noah model is based on the 13 land cover classification scheme developed at the University of Maryland. For retrospective simulations, the LIS framework supports various atmospheric data sets, including GLDAS, GOES, NLDAS, ECMWF, each with different levels of spatial and temporal resolutions. The Noah/LIS runs were performed using the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS; Cosgrove et al. 2003) forcing for a 3-year period from the beginning of January 2004 to the end of the year 2006. The input atmospheric forcing data includes the following surface variables: air temperature and water vapor content, pressure, components of the wind, downward fluxes of solar and longwave radiation, and rain- snowfall rates. The NLDAS domain covers the Continental United States (CONUS) region and some adjacent areas of Canada and Mexico. They are available online from the end of 1996 until the present with 1/8th latitude-longitude resolution (approximately 15 km grid spacing). The quality of NLDAS fields was validated against point observations and has proven high. Luo and coauthors (2003) performed an evaluation study of the NLDAS forcing over the southern Great Plains, spanning almost a two-year long period and showing that typical standard deviations between NLDAS and those observed at surface stations variables are 2.3 ºC (for the air temperature), 1.1 g/kg (for the water vapor specific humidity), 1.5 m/s (for the wind speed), 120 W/m² (for the downward solar radiation flux), and 0.65 mm/hr and 0.15 mm/hr (for the 15 hourly and daily precipitation rates, respectively). The hourly precipitation forcing in NLDAS is based on daily precipitation reanalysis, which produced from gauge reports at NCEP Climate Prediction Center. The NLDAS downward solar radiation flux at the surface is retrieved from NOAA’s GOES satellite measurements. The other NLDAS forcing fields are interpolated both temporally and horizontally from analysis fields produced by the NCEP Eta Data Assimilation System at 40 km resolution every 3 hr. The Noah/LIS model is integrated with 15 min time step. Green vegetation fraction fields are obtained by space-time linear interpolation of multiyear monthly mean data having 0.15°×0.15° latitude-longitude resolution (Gutman and Ignatov 1998). Other static and atmospheric forcing fields are also interpolated or aggregated from their native resolution to 1×1 km² cells using the same interpolation/aggregation capability of LIS. Depth-constant initial conditions (30% for soil moisture and 10°C for soil temperature) are used within entire integration domain shown in Fig. 1. d. The dependence of simulated soil moisture on soil texture The spatial pattern of the simulated soil moisture fields from the top 10 cm layer of the Noah model is a representative example of the model state soon after a rainfall event (Figure 3a) and that at the end of a drying period (Figure 3c). These figures reveal a close correspondence between the spatial patterns of the soil texture depicted in Fig. 1 and those of the SM due to the SM response to the hydraulic properties (e.g. Robock et al. 2003; Richter et al. 2004). Similar examples of the spatial distribution of the SM over the part of the same region have previously been shown by Mostovoy et al. (2007). A careful examination and comparison of Figures 1, 3a 16 and 3c reveal a close correlation between simulated SM and soil type. Areas of relatively low SM content coincide well with corresponding areas of sandy loam soil depicted by the brown color in Fig. 1. In fact, marked footprints of the sandy loam are clearly observed in the SM fields along east/west boundaries of the model domain within a latitudinal zone bounded by 33ºN and 34ºN (see Fig. 3). Conversely, areas of relatively high SM correspond to those of clay soils, which are dominant over the Delta and shown in Fig. 1 by blue and green colors. Mohr and coauthors (2000) analyzed in-situ and remotely sensed observations across SW Oklahoma in 1997, and used their results to describe a similar control of the spatial distribution of soil texture on the spatial distribution of SM fields. This association between soil texture and SM is well established and supported by previous empirical studies of SM spatial organization. Hollinger and Isard (1994) analyzed a multi-year SM time series sampled biweekly during growing season over the state of Illinois at 15 grass-covered sites, and reported soil texture and structure to be the major factors controlling water storage within 1 m top soil layer. These authors showed that fine-grained and wellstructured, silty-clayey soils with high porosity have twice as much water stored within the top 1 m layer than coarse-grained and poorly-structured sandy soils with relatively low porosity. Other studies have shown that the spatial organization of soil moisture is controlled by the soil porosity, which depends on the soil texture (e.g. Rodríguez-Iturbe et al. 1995; Yoo et al. 1998). Using SM of the top 5 cm layer and field porosity data with 200 m resolution available from the Washita’92 experiment, Yoo and coauthors (1998) demonstrated that spatial correlation scales/lengths are about the same (around 2000 m, on average) for both SM and porosity fields. Results of the above study indicated that soil texture/porosity is more influential in controlling 17 the spatial distribution of SM during drying out periods than rainfall and various landscape factors, such as a terrain’s slope, orientation and vegetation patterns. The simulated soil moisture fields of the top 10 cm layer in the Noah model have distinctly elevated values within the Delta region where soils with relatively high clay content prevail and, conversely, and lower SM values over the regions to the east and west from the Delta where silt-loam-sandy soils are dominant. This qualitative agreement can be seen in Fig 3(a) and 3(c). In addition to these marked changes of the soil texture between the Mississippi Delta and adjacent territories, there is a green vegetation contrast between the Delta (with the relatively low values of f) and surrounding well-forested territories to the east and west having a high level of f. Examples of the geographical distribution of the green vegetation fraction (f), used in the Noah model simulation domain representing the multiyear mean monthly data of vegetation fraction (Gutman and Ignatov 1998), are depicted in Fig. 3 (b, d) for August and September. Longitudinally averaged plots are used to better understand and interpret the influences of soil texture and vegetation fraction on simulated soil moisture. The simulated variables from the year 2006 are averaged within one-degree latitudinal band (from 33º N to 34º N), except for the soil texture, which was aggregated within the same range, and then plotted in Fig. 4 as a function of the longitude. Figure 4 shows good agreement between observed SM and the aggregated texture classes along the longitudes. Both during August and October 2006 the averaged SM values closely respond to soil texture transitions demonstrating elevated level of SM over the Lower Mississippi Delta where clayey soil types are dominant (they are shown in Fig. 4 as numbers representing the USDA soil texture classes ranging from 8 /Silty Clay Loam / to 11 /Silty Clay/ and 12 /Clay/) as compared with regions of lower SM to the east and west where sandy soil types (corresponding numbers ranging from 3 /Sandy Loam/ to 4 /Silt Loam/) 18 prevail. Note that the soil moisture responds to changes in soil texture in the same way at the end of drying periods and after precipitation events (see corresponding SM lines in Fig. 4). Similar features of SM responses were observed during other years (2004 and 2005) having marked differences in precipitation amounts, as shown in Fig. 5. Soil moisture changes most sharply along the eastern boundary of the Mississippi Delta where there is an almost discontinuous decrease in the SM of about 10%. This analysis indicates the importance of soil texture in maintaining spatial SM gradients both during relatively dry and wet conditions. Additionally, frames (e) and (f) in Fig. 4 illustrate a total evapotranspiration response to different precipitation inputs. The total evapotranspiration is lower over the Delta than over adjacent and more vegetated/forested areas located to the east and west. Finally, a formal stratification of simulated SM (averaged within one-degree latitudinal range) according to the soil texture classes gives additional evidence of the soil texture control on spatial SM patterns. Symbolic distributions (represented by box-plots showing the data range, upper and lower quartiles, and the median) of the SM values within a particular soil texture class are plotted in Fig. 6 for a three-year period spanning from 2004 to 2006, showing a rather gradual increase in the median SM when the soil texture class changes from 3 (Sandy Loam) to 12 (Clay). Because the texture class 11 (Silty Clay) contains a relatively small number of sample points (twelve), its distribution cannot be considered as statistically representative. The SM differences across soil texture classes (as illustrated by Fig. 6) are related to the choice of hydraulic properties (Richter et al. 2004). Overall, these plots support a general notion on the importance of soil texture in maintaining a particular SM level within top 0-10 cm layer. e. Comparison with SCAN soil moisture 19 In this section, validation results of SM simulated with the Noah/LIS model against observations available at 12 SCAN sites over the MS Delta are presented. The Noah model describes a homogeneous media having physical properties related to a specific soil texture class. Depending on horizontal/vertical grid size and structure selection for the Noah model, this soil texture class derived from STATSGO data is represented by one dominant soil type observed within the model horizontal grid cell and the soil layer depth. In this study the 1-km grid size and the 2-m soil depth are adopted. The differences between the soil texture classes locally observed at SCAN sites for the top 0-10 cm layer and those derived from 1-km STATSGO data are depicted in Fig. 7a. As mentioned earlier, the soil texture specified in the Noah/LIS SM simulations is a constant with the depth. Note that locally sampled soil texture data are not available for Earle, AR site. Four sites among the eleven differ in their local soil types in the top 0-10 cm layer from the STATSGO soil texture classes. More complete information about depth-variation of locally observed soil texture types and clay/sand content within four Noah layers is shown in Fig. 7b. Because the SCAN sampled clay/sand content data are represented by average values for layers of about 10-cm to 15-cm in depth, they are aggregated vertically to match the thickness of Noah layers. Silt loam (denoted by number 4) is the most prevalent soil texture, which is observed/sampled at 7 sites for at least two top Noah layers (see Fig. 7b). At the same time, relatively high variations of clay and sand ratios are observed among these sites (Fig. 7b), although they are all categorized into the same texture class (silt loam). Note the high depthvariations of clay/sand content. Since a fixed set of hydraulic properties is assigned to every texture class, these variations and vertical heterogeneity in sand/clay percentage can cause 20 additional deviations between simulated and observed SM. Considering the problem of clay/sand variations within limits of texture classes, it might be a more accurate to relate hydraulic soil properties not to the texture class, but rather directly to clay/sand content, which is also available from the STATSGO data. Indeed, Cosby et al. (1984) reported a high correlation, exceeding 0.8 on average between texture-mean soil hydraulic parameters (saturated values of soil water potential, Kw and others) and mean clay/sand content for these textures. SM biases defined as Noah-simulated minus observed values for May-June, July-August, and September-October periods of years 2005 and 2006 are depicted in Fig. 8 for 12 SCAN sites within top three Noah layers. Table 1 illustrates the corresponding RMS differences between simulated and observed SM for the same periods. Figure 9 shows that a rather high variability of rainfall amount averaged over the selected sites and its frequency distribution is observed during these two month periods. During July-August of 2005, for example, 11 significant precipitation events with daily total exceeding 5 mm were observed and during September-October of the same year only 3 such cases were registered (see Fig. 9). Except for Lonoke Farm, simulated SM demonstrates a persistent negative bias (simulated SM is lower/dryer than observed value) within the second and third Noah layers as shown in Fig. 8. SM bias patterns within the top 0-10 cm are more variable among selected sites as compared with those of lower layers. In the top 0-10 cm layer some sites such as Earle, Campus, DeWitt, Lonoke Farm, and N. Issaquena show a consistent tendency for a positive SM bias. At Vance and Beasley Lake sites a persistent negative SM bias prevails within the top layer and at Tunica and Perthshire Farm a persistent positive SM bias (simulated values are too high) is dominant. A small positive SM bias, which in general is less than 5 % in the top 0-10 cm is typical for Silver City and Good Timber Ck. sites. SM statistics are not shown within third layer at Good Timber Ck. for 2006 because of a 21 poor quality of data. Overall, a rather good performance of the Noah model expressed in terms of low values of SM bias and RSM difference within three Noah layers is observed at these two sites. Note that Silver City has a soil texture gap between local (silt loam) and STATSGO (silty clay loam) data within two top layers. A relatively small and consistent increase in the clay content from about 13% (0-10 cm layer) to 28-30% in the 40-100 cm layer and almost no change in sand content are observed at both of these sites (see Fig. 7). Although similar patterns of clay/sand distribution are observed at Marianna, DeWitt, and Lonoke Fm., SM biases and RMS differences are significantly higher at these sites as compared to those at Silver City and Good Timber Ck. Therefore, there is no apparent link between levels of SM bias or RMS error shown in Fig. 8 and Table 1 and the observed differences between local and STATSGO soil textures. Only at Campus and DeWitt sites SM bias and RMS error are dramatically increased within the third Noah layer (40-100 cm) where the differences between soil textures are locally observed (see Fig. 8 and Table 1). It should be noted that the above mentioned positive and negative SM biases, especially within lower layers, are persistently manifested across various seasons/years having different distribution and varying rate of precipitation. However, the top 0-10 cm layer shows a tendency for increased/decreased SM bias and RMS difference during dryer/wetter periods. Comparing Figs. 8 and 9 (middle frames), it can be concluded that during a relatively wet period of JulyAug. 2005 with precipitation amount of 212 mm, SM biases are significantly lower (except for DeWitt, Campus, and Marianna sites) than those during July-Aug. 2006, which is a relatively dry period having 104 mm of total precipitation. Although this tendency of reduced biases and RMS errors (see Table 1) of SM is observed more clearly in the top layer, it is manifested in lower 22 layers as well. The same response of SM performance statistics to relatively dry/wet conditions is also observed during Sept.-Oct. 2006 (see lower frames in Figs. 8 and 9). One of the reasons for the excessive dryness within the second and third Noah layers may be attributed to the high water diffusivity, which controls the speed of soil water propagation. It will be shown later in section 5, that use of soil textures with low Dw substantially reduce the dry drift of simulated SM within the lower layers of the Noah model. Vegetation-precipitation interactions have proven to be an important factor controlling surface runoff and SM distribution at seasonal time scales (e.g. Yildiz and Barros 2007). Fig. 10 shows variability of green vegetation fraction averaged for SCAN sites with the same vegetation type during May-October period. According to the adopted UMD vegetation classification, SCAN sites are categorized into either of two classes: wooded grassland (Good Timber Ck. and Campus) or cropland (ten sites). Although the mean vegetation fraction for cropland sites changes rather sharply during the growing season (from 0.42 in May to 0.78 in August and then to 0.41 in October, as shown in Fig. 10) there is no an apparent impact of these changes in the fractional vegetation cover (f) on SM performance statistics (biases and RMS errors), shown in Fig. 8 and Table 1. 4. Observed soil moisture variability The correlation between soil texture and simulated 0-10 cm SM patterns observed over the Lower Mississippi Delta region (described in the section 3d) is fairly well confirmed by insitu SM measurements available over the same region. Fig. 11 shows examples of SM temporal variability within 1 m top layer at five SCAN sites having different soil texture during years 23 2005 and 2006. For plotting purposes the observed SM, which is measured at five levels, is linearly interpolated between these levels. Daily mean values of SM are depicted in Fig. 11, and periods of missing measurements are shown by white bars as well. Local soil texture distribution with depth sampled at SCAN sites and corresponding soil texture classes derived from STATSGO data are also shown in Fig. 11. Two upper frames in Fig. 11 illustrate the SM variability at two SCAN sites located NW of the Delta at Campus, AR and Lonoke Farm, AR respectively, having silt loam soils. Three lower frames depict SM time-depth plots for SCAN sites within the Mississippi Delta region; they are Silver City, MS (silt loam, 4), Beasley Lake, MS (silty clay, 11), and Perthshire Farm, MS (silty clay, 11). Locally sampled texture classes are indicated in parenthesis. Figure 7 clearly depicts typical changes in SM dynamics caused by a transition in the soil texture from sandy to clayey soils. Comparison between the upper frames representing sandy soils and the lower ones relating to clayey soils supports the importance of soil texture in maintaining a specific level of SM, particularly during the drying out stages of soils. Indeed, an increase in clay content up to 50% (as shown in two lower frames) leads to a very shallow layer having about 20 to 40 cm in thickness affected by the surface evaporation and, as a consequence, relatively high SM. Conversely, relatively low clay content (as illustrated by three upper frames in Fig. 11) produces a deep (up to 1 m) soil evaporation layer and low SM. The high correlation or correspondence between both observed and simulated SM and soil texture suggests that accurate specification of soil texture classes, provided that they correctly describe the soil hydraulic properties, is important as other factors such as vegetation fraction and atmospheric forcing for improving the accuracy of the simulated SM and the overall 24 quality of land surface simulations. This inference is especially significant for the drying out periods of soil matter. It should be noted that a relatively small region covering approximately area of 2.5º×2.5º in latitude-longitude, as compared with a typical size of large-scale weather systems (atmospheric high, lows, and fronts), was considered in this study. Therefore, it would be reasonable to accept almost horizontally homogeneous atmospheric conditions related to amounts of total precipitation and evaporation (a component controlled by the atmospheric demand) within this region. It is also obvious that in addition to the soil texture, horizontal variations of other local factors, such as water table depth, soil cracks, and macro- and mini terrain features favoring standing water and ponding, and others can affect locally observed SM dynamics. These factors have not been considered in this study. Because all SCAN sites are covered by the short grass with a relatively small locallyobserved f, a vegetation influence on SM is assumed not to be critical in this study. Use of vegetation parameterizations has proven to be critical for simulations, especially long-term, of surface fluxes although an impact of these parameterizations on the SM is not well established and understood (Bosilovich and Sun 1998). Using the ECMWF LSM for multi-years runs over Australia, Richter et al. (2004) demonstrated little sensitivity of modeled SM to variations of vegetation parameters, such as f and LAI, in comparison to a relatively large response to changes of soil hydraulic parameters. Results of our sensitivity tests with the Noah model showed that activation of the short grass vegetation cover with f = 0.5 resulted in a soil water sink having approximately constant rate, which mimics a water extraction by plant roots, and located within three top model layers. The use of vegetation parameterization leads to additional monotonic decrease of SM in time within second and third layers and the magnitude of this SM lowering is 25 proportional to f. In most test cases, however, use of the vegetation parameterization produced a little impact on the top 0-10 cm SM in comparison with that in the lower layers. Hence, the bare soil condition (f = 0) was chosen for SM sensitivity experiments described in the next section. 5. Results of sensitivity experiments It can be expected from the results described in the previous two sections that SM simulations with Noah model may be improved at SCAN sites if the STATSGO soil texture is substituted with locally sampled values. In order to evaluate the impact of using a local soil texture on modeled SM quality, two sets of simulations were performed with the Noah model at SCAN sites where differences between local and STATSGO soil textures were observed. They are both initialized from SM and soil temperatures observed at SCAN sites. The SCAN data were aggregated vertically to match to Noah layer thickness, as shown in Fig. 12 for the SM. In a first simulation, referred as a control run, the soil texture was taken from the STATSGO data base and a second run was carried out with the local soil texture. Both runs cover a set of two-month periods (May-June, July-Aug. and Sept.-Oct.) spanning years 2004-2006 with different amount and rainfall distribution. Since SCAN SM measurements cover only top 0-102 cm, they can only be compared with SM within the top three Noah layers. Before this comparison, SCAN SM was cubically interpolated to a vertical grid with 1 cm resolution between five observation levels, and then the interpolated profile was used to estimate the layer-averaged SM. This procedure is illustrated in Fig. 12, where the thickness of each layer corresponds to that of the Noah layers. 26 Figure 13 shows a comparison between simulated and observed SM for the top 3 Noah layers at Perthshire Farm, MS site for three Sept.-Oct. periods for the years 2004, 2005 and 2006. This particular example provides good evidence of an improvement in the quality SM simulations in the top 0-10 cm due to the substitution of silty clay loam (the STATSGO texture) with silty clay (the locally sampled texture). Both RMS difference and bias (estimated as simulated minus observed value) are significantly reduced as compared with the control run, shown in Table 2. This improvement is observed for drying out periods and persists during different years and seasons (see Tables 2 and 3 for May-June and July-Aug.). Another typical example of simulated SM improvement due to soil texture change (silt loam soil type was substituted by sandy loam) is shown in Fig. 14 for Campus, AR SCAN site. Although a certain reduction of the RMS difference and the bias also occurs within second and third Noah layers, the model failed to reproduce the observed variability of the SM, as illustrated by lower and middle frames in Figs. 13 and 14. In these layers, the reduced SM bias may be directly attributed to the corresponding lowering of the water diffusivity (Dw) due to the substitution of the STATSGO soil texture by observed. Recall that Dw of silty clay (the sample texture) is smaller than Dw of silty clay loam. Relative changes in Dw and β coefficients due to a set of typical soil texture transforms (shown in Tables 2 and 3 for five selected SCAN sites) are depicted in Fig. 15. The coefficient Dw decreases most dramatically (up to twenty times and more) when the soil texture changes from silt loam (4) to silty clay (11) and from silty clay loam (8) to silty clay (11). Conversely, the change of soil texture from silt loam to sandy loam (3) results in relatively small differences of Dw (it changes less then two times). The coefficient β controls the rate of surface evaporation/transpiration and its changes among the texture classes are generally smaller in comparison with those of Dw. Therefore Dw is a more important factor in 27 controlling soil water redistribution than the β coefficient, which depends both on SM content at field capacity and at wilting point. Note that Dw is determined by saturated values of Kw, soil water potential, and SM (or porosity). Typical SM biases produced by the Noah model over the Mississippi Delta during spring, summer, and fall periods have been described in the section 3e and in a previous study (Anantharaj et al. 2007). Elimination of the original excessive wetness (a positive SM bias) for the top model layer is an important improvement of the Noah model performance. It can be expected that this improvement, if confirmed by similar experiments in other geographical regions, has a positive impact on SM initialization and assimilation studies. Note that the excessive wetness within top layers of different LSMs has been reported quite frequently in literature (e.g. Irannejad and Shao 1998; Richter et al. 2004). Eventhough the temporal variability of the soil moisture in the 0-10 cm top layer is reasonably simulated, there is still a marked underestimation of the SM during and 10-14 days after precipitation events (see Fig. 13). This deficiency, inherent in various LSM resulting in a negative bias of the simulated SM (simulated soil matter is drier than observed), has been described in earlier studies (e.g. Bosilovich and Sun 1998). Results of our additional sensitivity tests have shown that this SM lowering could not simply be eliminated by increasing the precipitation amount available for infiltration into the soil. Alternatively, this deficiency of simulated SM can be reduced by choosing appropriate function shapes to describe soil hydraulic properties, as suggested by Braun and Schädler (2005). Some sites, such as Tunica, MS, have a high degree of vertical heterogeneity of the soil texture. At this SCAN site the soil texture changes from top to bottom in a following order clay loam, silty clay loam, silty clay, and clay (locally-sampled data aggregated to match four Noah layers). Other sites have less vertical 28 heterogeneity of the soil texture; but in general, clay content naturally increases with the soil depth leading to a certain layering of the soil substrate. The quality of simulated SM time series generally suffers with enhanced vertical heterogeneity of soil texture. However, for a given profile of soil heterogeneity, the simulated SM may be improved by optimizing the LSM vertical structure and accounting for the soil layering, as suggested by Irannejad and Shao (1998), Richter et al. (2004), and Yang et al. (2005). Another emerging approach is to use advanced data assimilation techniques, such a bias correction scheme to correct model errors using a three dimensional Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method, to assimilate a set of in-situ observations of sufficient spatial density (Luo and Houser 2008; Reichle and Koster 2004). Besides, remotely sensed information offer the potential to develop new methodologies to properly characterize and aggregate the soil texture information using artificial neural networks (Zhai et al. 2006) and calibrate the LSM and optimize the soil hydraulic properties using pedotransfer functions (Santanello et al. 2007). Because the results described in this section were obtained for f = 0, additional experiments demonstrating sensitivity of simulated SM to variations in vegetation fraction were conducted. Figures 16 (Perthshire Farm) and 17 (Tunica) illustrate sensitivity of SM changes associated with a transition between soil textures to variation in vegetation fraction during years 2005 and 2006 for Sept.-Oct. period. The maximum response in SM between Noah runs with different textures is observed for f = 0. Conversely, a complete vegetation cover (f = 1) has a tendency to produce a relatively small response in SM, especially in the top layer (see upper frames if Figs. 16 and 17). Overall, Figs. 16 and 17 show that the improvement in SM statistics related to the use of the local soil texture and discussed at this section is expected to be valid only for sites/regions having the relatively small vegetation fraction (f ≤ 0.3). 29 The sensitivity of the Noah simulations to errors in atmospheric forcing has also been investigated. However, only very small differences were observed in the simulated SM between runs performed with the local atmospheric forcing and those executed with the NLDAS forcing (results not shown). Typically, these differences are an order of magnitude smaller than that associated with the substitution of the STATSGO soil texture by the local one. This inference is in qualitative agreement with the results published by Luo and coauthors (2003) and Robock and coauthors (2003), showing that the model’s physics adjustments were more significant for controlling the SM level than reduction of the uncertainty in the atmospheric forcing. It should be noted that typically the sign of the SM bias differs between the top and lower model layers. In the present study, a positive SM or an excessive wetness was observed within the top Noah layer and an excessive drying (a negative SM bias) within the lower layers, as shown in Tables 2 and 3. While the use of the depth-averaged SM for comparison may produce a better bulk agreement with that of the observed, it will mask SM biases observed within specific layers. Therefore, the use of layer-by-layer comparison represents more objective and rigorous validation of the Noah model performance. Hence, it can be concluded that in the Lower Mississippi River Valley, characterized by clayey soils, the soil texture (through related hydraulic properties) has a greater influence on improving the accuracy of simulated soil moisture than vegetation and atmospheric forcing. An adjustment of various hydraulic parameters represents a rather flexible and efficient way to improve quality of SM predicted by LSMs. However, this is a complex and resource intensive task, especially for distributed land surface and hydrological models. A complementary approach is to use remotely sensed SM information, which when applied in conjunction with data assimilation and parameter optimization techniques, offers a potential for producing improved SM products at spatially relevant scales using land surface models. 30 6. Summary Observed and simulated with the Noah model, values of soil moisture (offline simulations were used with approximately 1×1 km² horizontal resolution) were compared on a daily basis over the Lower Mississippi Delta region during summer/fall months spanning years 2004 to 2006. Hourly soil moisture measurements and other data including local meteorological and soil physical properties data from twelve SCAN were used for these comparisons. For comparison purposes, the SCAN soil moisture data available at 5 levels spanning from 5 cm to 102 cm were aggregated to match to a vertical size of three top Noah model layers having total thickness of 100 cm. The Noah simulations covered 2.5º×2.5º latitude-longitude domain and were forced by the NLDAS atmospheric forcing. It was shown that both observed and simulated levels of soil moisture depend critically on specified/sampled soil texture. Soil types with high content of clay matter (more than 50% of weight) contain more water due to low water diffusivity leading to reduced rate of drying in comparison with silty/sandy soils having 20% or less of clay, provided that other conditions are the same. This fact is in agreement with previous studies (Mohr et al. 2000; Robock et al. 2003) and implies the importance of prescribing correct soil texture in order to simulate and assimilate soil moisture accurately. Therefore, sensitivity simulations were performed to assess the impact of using the sitespecific soil texture in-lieu of using aggregated soil texture data from the STATSGO database. At some SCAN sites, errors (root mean square difference and bias) of simulated soil moisture showed at least 50% reduction when site-specific soil texture was used in Noah simulations instead of that derived from the STATSGO data. A major improvement of simulated soil 31 moisture was observed within the top 0-10 cm layer. The improvements are much more substantial than those obtained by the substitution of NLDAS forcing by the local atmospheric data. Elimination of the original excessive wetness within the top model layer (where typically a positive SM bias is observed) and of the negative SM bias (excessive dryness of the soil matter) within second and third Noah layers is an important improvement of the Noah model performance. It can be expected that this improvement valid for relatively low vegetation fraction (f ≤ 0.3), if confirmed by similar studies in other geographical regions, has a positive impact on SM initialization and assimilation studies. Although some reduction of the simulation error was also observed within lower model layers (second and third), simulated soil moisture produced less temporal variability than observed data. This particular deficiency of the Noah model can be attributed to several factors including limitations of the model structure and configuration (assumed soil homogeneity related to specific choice of hydraulic conductivity and water diffusivity, small number of model layers, boundary conditions, etc.) and processes influencing the vertical distribution of soil water in nature (vertical heterogeneity of the soil matter, cracks, hysteresis of wetting-drying cycles, ponding, and variations of a water table depth from site to site) as well. Overall results of this study suggest the need to focus on advancing new techniques to account the model biases due to the uncertainties in the soil hydraulic properties used by land surface models. Acknowledgements This research was sponsored by the NASA Applied Sciences Program via NAS13-03032 and by NOAA Office of Atmospheric Research via NA05OAR4601145 and NA06OAR4600181. 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Barros, 2007: Elucidating vegetation controls on the hydroclimatology of a mid-latitude basin. J. Hydrology, 333, 431-448. Yang, K., T. Koike, B. Ye, and L. Bastidas, 2005: Inverse analysis of the role of soil vertical heterogeneity in controlling surface soil state and energy partition. ). J. Geophys. Res., 101, D08101, doi:10.1029/2004JD005500. 38 Yoo, C., J.B. Valdes, and G.R. North, 1998: Evaluation of the impact of rainfall on soil moisture variability. Adv. in Water Resour., 21, 375-384. Zhai, Y, J. A. Thomasson, J.E. Boggess, and R. Sui, 2006: Soil texture classification with artificial neural networks operating on remote sensing data. Comp. and Elec. in Agri., 56, 53-68. 39 Table 1. Root mean square difference between simulated and observed soil moisture at SCAN sites (month/year when data become available are also shown). Upper rows stand for year 2005 and lower for 2006. Layers where locally-observed soil texture class deviates from that of STATSGO data are shown in gray shading for Sept.-Oct. Period Layer (cm) Silver City 02.2004 N. Issaquena Beasley Lake Vance 09/1999 09/1999 6.8 5.8 6.2 4.5 8.1 7.6 8.6 13.0 8.5 12.1 11.0 13.9 10.2 8.8 9.8 9.8 9.6 13.5 4.1 6.7 6.6 8.8 9.4 8.9 6.6 8.2 8.5 12.7 10.8 13.7 9.1 8.0 7.5 10.5 4.5 10.9 10.2004 0-10 MayJune 10-40 40-100 0-10 JulyAugust 10-40 40-100 0-10 Sept.Oct. 10-40 40-100 4.5 2.4 1.6 2.9 5.3 7.2 3.5 2.3 2.1 6.4 7.4 13.0 5.1 1.9 1.4 5.0 6.4 12.3 6.5 12.3 8.8 9.5 8.8 9.7 5.0 14.6 11.0 16.0 13.2 17.8 8.5 7.4 10.6 14.3 11.2 18.5 Perthshire F Tunica Good Timber Marianna Earle Campus DeWitt Lonoke Farm 09/1999 01/1999 06/2004 07/2004 02/2004 06/2004 09/1999 8.6 5.4 6.6 9.0 9.6 9.2 6.3 12.5 9.1 9.3 12.8 13.0 7.9 10.0 4.4 6.4 9.8 10.9 4.2 4.0 1.8 4.7 6.5 3.5 4.0 9.1 11.0 13.7 6.6 3.9 7.3 5.9 10.1 - 6.5 5.5 6.2 6.1 10.5 9.5 9.4 7.5 9.7 6.5 13.6 12.3 8.7 9.6 2.3 13.7 9.5 7.4 13.1 12.9 7.4 16.3 12.4 10.5 10.4 9.8 7.0 15.9 11.2 13.2 9.9 7.1 10.2 13.3 12.3 7.1 10.8 5.0 2.4 10.9 11.9 9.6 7.5 5.1 15.7 18.8 23.8 6.8 4.9 5.5 6.3 17.2 13.9 10.0 4.0 4.8 2.9 7.5 8.1 6.5 7.8 7.7 4.9 10.2 13.3 7.3 7.2 8.1 9.4 11.8 14.4 13.4 14.1 3.8 6.0 1.7 2.3 11.0 17.0 7.3 12.3 3.1 4.3 11.0 11.5 2.5 6.3 5.3 4.0 04/2002 7.8 10.6 8.3 8.0 8.6 7.7 6.3 12.1 10.1 13.3 11.5 14.5 7.6 9.0 10.1 12.2 10.1 15.5 Table 2. Bias error (BIAS) and Root Mean Square (RMS) difference between simulated and observed soil moisture for three top Noah model layers. Upper row stands for control runs statistics and lower for runs with local soil texture (corresponding change in soil texture from local to STATSGO is shown by numbers below site name). Statistically significant improvement for local texture runs as compared to control runs are shown in grey shading. Site Layer Sept.-Oct. 2004 Sept.-Oct. 2005 Sept.-Oct. 2006 (cm) 0-10 Silver City 8 -> 4 10-40 40-100 0-10 Tunica 10-40 4 -> 11 40-100 0-10 Beasley Lake 8 -> 11 10-40 40-100 0-10 Perthshire Farm 8 -> 11 10-40 40-100 0-10 Campus 4 -> 3 10-40 40-100 BIAS RMS BIAS RMS BIAS RMS 2.4 1.6 0.1 -2.0 -5.2 -7.6 -4.7 -3.1 -0.5 -3.9 -1.7 -4.8 -7.5 -11.9 -6.8 -3.0 -7.2 -3.7 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.5 -5.7 -4.0 4.7 0.0 5.7 0.9 0.0 -4.3 3.9 3.0 2.8 4.4 6.6 9.4 7.4 7.0 4.9 6.7 3.4 6.2 8.1 13.6 7.1 3.9 7.4 3.8 7.6 7.6 6.0 5.3 5.9 4.2 5.9 2.6 7.2 4.5 0.8 4.4 2.6 2.6 -2.9 0.0 -7.5 -4.8 9.0 3.4 0.1 3.6 -5.6 -2.3 -10.9 -16.4 -8.1 -4.0 -7.2 -3.7 5.0 -1.2 -7.7 -3.2 -7.3 -3.6 1.5 -0.1 -4.9 -5.1 2.9 -1.6 3.1 3.6 5.2 2.0 9.6 6.2 10.9 4.8 5.4 6.5 6.4 3.4 11.9 17.4 8.4 4.1 7.6 3.9 7.5 4.5 8.0 3.5 7.6 3.8 4.6 3.9 6.7 6.8 3.0 1.8 1.3 0.9 -1.1 -3.1 -5.5 -7.8 8.5 0.3 -2.7 3.8 -5.9 0.0 -6.2 -12.3 -6.1 -2.1 -7.0 -3.4 6.8 0.2 -6.9 -2.6 -6.8 -3.1 -3.3 -4.7 -11.0 -11.3 3.2 0.4 3.2 2.4 2.1 3.9 5.7 8.1 8.8 2.2 4.5 5.1 6.4 1.7 6.9 13.8 7.5 3.9 7.3 3.6 8.1 2.6 7.6 2.9 7.2 3.3 5.4 6.1 12.1 12.5 3.5 1.1 41 Table 3. Same statistics as in Table 2, but for May-June and July-August and years 2005 and 2006. Site Layer (cm) 0-10 Silver City 1040 8 -> 4 40100 0-10 Tunica 4 -> 11 1040 40100 0-10 Beasley Lake 1040 8 -> 11 40100 0-10 Perthshire Farm 1040 8 -> 11 40100 0-10 Campus 4 -> 3 1040 40100 May-June 2005 July-Aug. 2005 May-June 2006 July-Aug. 2006 BIAS RMS BIAS RMS BIAS RMS BIAS RMS -1.1 -0.8 -2.0 -4.8 -5.6 -8.3 6.4 -0.6 -4.5 3.6 -7.7 -0.7 -10.1 -14.8 -5.7 -1.8 4.6 3.2 2.5 5.4 5.8 8.7 7.5 4.2 5.1 6.0 7.8 2.0 11.5 15.8 6.4 3.5 -5.2 -3.1 -3.9 -6.6 -6.0 -8.0 1.9 -1.5 -3.2 3.4 -6.2 -0.2 -11.2 -16.0 -5.8 -2.2 6.7 4.4 3.9 5.7 5.7 7.3 4.7 6.5 6.2 6.0 7.8 1.7 12.6 16.6 6.3 4.4 -2.9 -1.6 -1.4 -5.2 -5.3 -8.6 0.2 -7.5 -9.9 -2.3 -9.0 -2.3 -10.2 -14.1 -2.8 0.6 6.3 4.1 1.6 5.8 5.6 9.1 4.1 8.6 10.3 2.4 9.4 2.5 11.9 15.8 4.3 4.3 -2.6 0.1 -0.2 -4.8 -5.3 -9.1 10.8 2.4 -5.5 3.2 -7.8 -0.3 -15.5 -19.6 -5.3 -2.7 5.6 3.3 1.2 5.5 5.4 9.4 11.3 3.2 6.3 4.8 8.2 1.0 16.5 20.0 6.5 4.1 -7.2 -3.9 1.5 -3.2 -7.9 -4.0 -7.3 -4.0 9.0 0.3 -0.12 -3.6 7.5 4.0 5.8 6.3 8.2 4.0 7.5 4.1 9.3 3.2 1.7 4.1 -7.0 -3.8 -1.3 -7.2 -7.4 -2.7 -7.3 -3.2 13.3 5.1 8.9 6.0 7.2 3.8 6.0 7.8 7.8 3.0 7.6 3.4 14.5 6.4 10.1 8.0 -6.5 -3.6 1.8 -2.3 -7.6 -4.2 -6.7 -3.7 11.8 3.4 3.2 -0.2 6.8 3.7 6.4 7.9 7.9 4.2 7.0 3.8 12.1 5.9 4.7 4.1 -6.7 -3.8 1.4 1.4 -4.0 -2.4 -4.7 -3.0 7.0 2.1 8.0 4.7 6.9 3.9 2.7 2.5 4.1 2.5 4.9 3.1 11.0 4.9 9.3 5.5 -3.6 -6.9 3.9 7.1 -2.1 5.3 2.3 5.4 -4.0 -7.3 4.1 7.4 -0.4 -4.2 1.3 3.3 42 Figure captions Figure 1. Geographical distribution of USDA soil classes and location of the SCAN sites used for soil moisture analysis and validation within Noah/LIS integration domain. White color stands for water bodies. Figure 2. Soil layer distribution in the Noah model (a) and soil moisture measurements levels at SCAN sites (b). Figure 3. Examples of soil moisture (within top 0-10 cm layer) geographical distribution simulated by the Noah model for August (a) and September (c) 2006. Right frames show the spatial distribution of vegetation fraction for August (b) and September (d) used for soil moisture simulations. Stars stand for SCAN sites. Figure 4. Longitudinal variations of soil moisture simulated in the top 0-10 cm layer by the Noah model, vegetation fraction, and NLDAS precipitation (a, b) and total evapotranspiration (e, f) (all averaged within 1-degree latitude belt confined between 33º N and 34º N) and dominant soil texture (c, d) within the same latitudinal zone across the Lower Mississippi Delta during July-Aug. (a, c, e) and Sept.-Oct. (b, d, f) 2006. Two sets of soil moisture values are shown: one (the lower line) corresponds to the end of drying period and the other (the upper line) represents soil moisture distribution after subsequent rainfall events. Rainfall and evapotranspiration amounts are converted to daily mean values for the dates ranges corresponding to the soil moisture simulations. Figure 5. Examples of soil moisture (within top 0-10 cm layer) and rainfall distribution are the same as in Fig. 4, but for years 2004 (a, b) and 2005 (c, d). Figure 6. Symbolic plots of soil moisture (values were averaged within 33º N – 34º N latitude range) distributions stratified by soil texture type for years 2004 to 2006. July-August (a) 43 and September-October (b). Median, upper and lower quartiles, and data range are shown. Numbers shown in right lower frame stand for total number of sample points within specific texture class. Following abbreviations were used for texture classes: Sandy Loam (SL), Silt Loam (SiL), Silty Clay Loam (SiCL), Silty Clay (SiC), and Clay (C). Figure 7. Comparison between local sample soil texture (top 0-10 cm layer) and that of STATSGO data base (a). Depth-variation of local clay-sand content (b). Numbers below symbols indicate layer of the Noah model. Symbols having no numbers stand for the fourth (lower) Noah layer. Solid lines are boundaries between USDA soil texture classes. Same abbreviations as in Fig. 6 are used to denote soil texture classes; Silt (Si), Loam (L), Sandy Clay Loam (SCL), Clay Loam (CL), and Sandy Clay (SC). Figure 8. Soil moisture biases in top three Noah layers at SCAN sites for May-June (upper frames), July-August (middle), and September-October (lower) two-month periods of years 2005 and 2006. Small open boxes within lower frames indicate site/layer where gap between STATSGO and local soil texture is observed. Figure 9. SCAN and NLDAS daily rainfall amount averaged over 12 SCAN sites (see Fig. 1 for their location). Standard deviations from mean values are depicted by error bars for SCAN data. Numbers shown in each frame are, from top to bottom, total number of rain events (daily total >= 0.1 mm), number of significant events (daily total >= 5 mm), and total rain amount (mm) within two-month period, respectively. Figure 10. Variability of green vegetation fraction at SCAN sites during May-October period. Two sites (Good Timber Ck. and Campus) belong to Wooded Grassland and other ten sites to Cropland vegetation category. Standard deviations are shown by error bars. Data 44 are interpolated bilinearly to SCAN sites from multiyear vegetation fraction database (Gutman and Ignatov 1998). Figure 11. Time-depth plots of soil moisture (a) from Jan. 2005 to Dec. 2006 and local soil texture (b) at five selected SCAN sites. Note close association between clay content increase and changes (overall increase) of observed soil moisture. Figure 12. Vertical interpolation example of SCAN soil moisture measurements (squares). Cubically interpolated profile (thin line); thick vertical lines stand for layer-averaged soil moisture; thin horizontal lines indicate boundaries between Noah layers. Figure 13. Time series of observed and simulated with Noah model daily soil moisture at Perthshire Farm, MS, SCAN site during Sept.-Oct. period and years 2004 to 2006. Three upper rows correspond to first, second, and third model soil layers, respectively (and their location is shown in Fig. 2). Observed daily rainfall amount is depicted in the lower row by bars. Figure 14. The same as in Fig. 10, but for Campus, AR, SCAN site. Figure 15. Relative changes in water diffusivity Dw and coefficient β, associated with switches between different soil textures, which are indicated by numbers. For example, if soil texture is transformed from 8 (silty clay loam) to 11 (silty clay), relative change in Dw is calculated as follows: [Dw (11)– Dw (8)] / Dw (11). Changes in β are estimated in the same manner. Lines “8 −> 11” and “8 −> 4” from upper frame are duplicated in the lower frame by closed circles and by thick dashed line, respectively. Figure 16. Dependence of soil moisture (SM) difference between Noah runs with silty clay (11) and silty clay loam (8) textures on variations of vegetation fraction represented by 0, 0.3, 0.5, 0.8, and 1. Perthshire Farm, Sept-Oct. 2005 (left frames) and 2006 (right 45 frames). Values of SM(11) minus SM(8) are depicted; 0-0.1m (upper frame), 0.1-0.4m (middle), and 0.4-1m (lower) layer. Figure 17.The same as in Fig. 16, but for Tunica and soil moisture (SM) difference between Noah runs with silty clay (11) and silt loam (4) textures. Values of SM(11) minus SM(4) are depicted. 46 longitude, W Figure 1. 47 (a) | V free drainage (b) | V bottom boundary layer -800 ---------------------------------------- Figure 2. 48 (a) (b) (c) (d) Figure 3. 49 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) Figure 4. 50 (a) (b) (c) (d) Figure 5. 51 (a) Figure 6. 52 (b) (a) (b) Figure 7. 53 May-June July – August Figure 8. 54 September-October Figure 8. Continued. 55 May-June July-August September-October Figure 9. 56 Figure 10. 57 (a) Figure 11. 58 (b) Soil moisture content, volumetric fraction in % Figure 11. Continued. 59 Figure 12. 60 Figure 13. 61 Figure 14. 62 Figure 15. Figure 16. 64 Figure 17. 65
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