Western Interstate Commission
For Higher Education
AT THE COLLEGE DOOR
Data & Implications
for the Northeast Region
Tuesday, March 7, 2017
www.wiche.edu/knocking
#Knocking2016
Logistics
Your Participation
Open and close your control panel
using the arrow in the orange box.
Choose Mic & Speakers or
Telephone (Note: All attendees will
be muted.)
Submit questions and feedback in
the Questions panel.
Agenda
1. High School Graduate Trends
Peace Bransberger, Senior Research Analyst, WICHE
2. Implications
Ross Gittell
Chancellor, New Hampshire Community College
System
Nyal Fuentes
College and Career Readiness,
Mass. Dept. of Elementary and Secondary Education
Peter Francese
Demographics and Consumer Markets Consultant,
Francese.com
3. Q & A
Knocking at the College Door:
Projections of High School Graduates
• Public and Private High School
Graduates
• Public by Race/Ethnicity
• Nation, Four Regions, 50 States,
DC, and Guam & Puerto Rico (new)
U.S. High School Graduates
•
•
•
The overall number will plateau for most of the next decade
The racial/ethnic mix of high school graduates will continue to shift significantly
toward a more diverse population
Private high school graduates continue to decline in number and share
U.S. High School Graduates
Overall Trend & Composition
Compared to SY2012-13
(Projections)
(Thousands)
3.30M
400
640 Hispanic
184 Asian/Pac. Isl.
32 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
474 Black
298 Private Schools
1,839 White
White
300
200
100
0
Hispanic
-100
Black
-200
Asian/Pacific Islander
Private schools
2013-14
2019-20
2025-26
2031-32
-300
2012-13
2018-19
2024-25
2030-31
Thousands
3.56M ('25)
3.44M
Significant Regional Variation
Significant Regional Variation
Total Public and Private High School Graduates
Thousands
The Northeast
650
600
550
Northeast Region High School Graduates
Overall Trend & Composition
Compared to SY2012-13
(Projections)
(Thousands)
630K
80
562K
White
White
121k
+59%
111k
+46%
60
40
20
White
0
-20
Hispanic
Hispanic
-40
Hispanic
Black
Black
Asian/Pacific
Asian/Pacific
IslanderIslander
Black
Private schools
Asian/Pacific Islander
Private
schools
Private schools
2013-14
2019-20
2025-26
305k
-16%
-60
271k
-26%
-80
-100
2031-32
2012-13
2018-19
2024-25
2030-31
Catholic
Other religious
High
208
200
400
Middle
179
78
79
86
76
74
74
144
134
139
400
200
0
177
400
Nonsectarian
152
109
Elem.
320
200
244
171
0
2001
Thousands
800
2005
2011
78
87
90
41
61
43
59
44
58
2001
2005
2011
0
NCES Private School Survey, Northeast state enrollments by school typology.
11
Thousands
Thousands
Private School Enrollment Declines
High School Graduates by State
% Change from Class of 2015
Class of 2025
New York
2%
Pennsylvania
0%
Massachusetts
-1%
New Jersey
-3%
Rhode Island
-7%
Vermont
-8%
Maine
-9%
Connecticut
-10%
New Hampshire
-11%
Class of 2032
-5%
-5%
-10%
-14%
-20%
-14%
-18%
-21%
-23%
Revised 3-10-2017. Slight differences from slide 12 in recorded webinar.
12
High School Graduates by State
New York
206K / year on average
Virtually no change to 2025
then 6% by 2031-32
Non-White 12% to 57% of Public Total
2013-14
2019-20
2025-26
2031-32
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Massachusetts
137,200 on average, 3% by ‘32
Non-White  3% to 25% of Total
100,500 on average, 16% by ‘32
Non-White  13% to 56% of Total
72,000 on average, 12% by ‘32
Non-White  17% to 44% of Total
High School Graduates by State
Connecticut
Maine
New Hampshire
38,500 on average, 26% by ‘32
Non-White  14% to 46% of Total
13,900 on average, 22% by ‘32
Non-White  12% to 19% of Total
14,600 on average, 26% by ‘32
Non-White  6% to 14% of Total
Rhode Island
Vermont
10,700 on average, 19% by ‘32
Non-White  16% to 46% of Total
6,600 on average, 18% by ‘32
Non-White  9% to 15% of Total
www.knocking.wiche.edu
Report
State Profiles
Download Data
Implications
Ross Gittell
Chancellor
New Hampshire Community College System
Nyal Fuentes
College and Career Readiness
Massachusetts Dept. of Elementary and Secondary Education
Peter Francese
Demographics and Consumer Markets Writer
Francese.com
Questions
Thank you!
Peace Bransberger
[email protected]
303-541-0257
www.knocking.wiche.edu
17