SECURITY AARMS Vol. 6, No. 3 (2007) 479–489 NATO and EU: Cooperation or competition? GÁBOR HORVÁTH Miklós Zrínyi National Defence University, Budapest, Hungary The author summarizes the development of NATO-EU relationship since the establishment of the European Security and Defence Policy. He explains the difficulties of this relationship after the EU enlargement in 2004, giving special attention to the situation of Cyprus and Malta. He describes the reasons behind the current preference for cooperation by informal means. He sums up EU military crisis management operations and provides an insight into current NATO operations, underlining the need for better cooperation in the field between the two organisations. Turning to the area of military capability development, he indicates some potential areas for NATO-EU joint effort. He warns of the possibility of diverging and competing demands in both NATO and the EU towards the Nations and Member States, which could lead to operational disasters in the future. Finally, the author concludes by reminding the reader of an idea describing the EU as the real European pillar of NATO. Introduction Since the establishment of the European Security and Defence Policy, as part of the Common Foreign and Security Policy at the Cologne European Union Council meeting, in June 1999, the EU has shown remarkable development in the area of external security policy. For the first time ever, permanent political and military structures were established within the EU. As a result of this process, the EU Military Committee and the EU Military Staff came into being, and a set of crisis management concepts and procedures have been established. The Union has defined with NATO the framework for relations between the two organisations and has also concluded arrangements for the consultation and participation of third countries in crisis management. However, that same European Council pronounced that “the Union must have the capacity for autonomous action, backed up by credible military forces, the means to decide to use them, and a readiness to do so, in order to respond to international crises without prejudice to actions by NATO”. The arrangements allowing the Union to have recourse to NATO’s assets and capabilities for military crisis management operations, more commonly known as the Received: June 28, 2007 Address for correspondence: GÁBOR HORVÁTH Miklós Zrínyi National Defence University P. O. Box 15, H-1581 Budapest, Hungary E-mail: [email protected] G. HORVÁTH: NATO and EU: Cooperation or competition? Berlin Plus arrangements, were concluded in early 2003. This happened just on the eve of the beginning of the Union’s first operation, named CONCORDIA, in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). CONCORDIA became the first operation led by the EU with recourse to NATO assets and capabilities. Some months later, ten new acceding states started their preparation for full EU membership in the form of active observation, among other activities, within the council working parties dealing with CFSP and ESDP. After one year, on the 1st of May 2004, the biggest enlargement wave occured, when these countries entered into the ranks of the EU Member States. From the outset, it was believed that the political difficulties and implications of the EU enlargement, impacting on the NATO-EU relationship, would be overcome by time. Now, four years after the conclusion of Berlin Plus, we are observing a situation where the naturally expected cooperation of the two organisations is even more restricted than before 2003, and has almost reached a moribund state. What went wrong? The aftermath of EU enlargement After the euphoria of the EU enlargement it became clear very soon that not only new Member States, but also new national interests and problems had moved into the EU building. From the point of view of the NATO-EU relationship, the particular contention associated with Cyprus has quickly become the source of major political difficulties. The roots of this problem can be traced back to the almost continuous conflicts between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots in the second half of the last century. In an attempt to remain impartial in this rather sad story, we would only remind one of the fact, that with the acceptance of the Greek Republic of Cyprus only, as member of the European Union, this contentious issue has become virtually frozen: apparently Turkey is not willing to recognize Cyprus without having tangible perspectives for the Turkish part of the island, and is very reluctant to make any concessions in political terms. In turn, Cyprus has started to use its veto in the EU, especially in the process of the next enlargements. As a consequence, the events led to the Turkish suspension of the accession talks on a number of chapters in late 2006. Turkey has found itself in an even more difficult situation when negotiating its own accession to the EU. This, in turn, might generate some political actions in other international organisations, like in NATO, where Turkey’s position is relatively strong. 480 AARMS 6(3) (2007) G. HORVÁTH: NATO and EU: Cooperation or competition? NATO-EU relations suffer from this situation. One of the undesired, and also long lasting effects is the continuing difficulty of bringing together NATO and EU political and military bodies. This problem is known as the “participation issue”. The participation issue stems from the absence of a formal security agreement between NATO and Cyprus (and between NATO and Malta as well). The security agreement between NATO and the new EU Member States was built upon the existence of the security agreement for the participation in NATO’s “Partnership for Peace” initiative (practically, that agreement was understood to cover the respective new member states’ activities in their EU context as well, without any change or amendment). Since the participation of Cyprus in PfP has never been accepted by NATO, no such “PfP security agreement” exists. In the case of Malta, an unilateral withdrawal from PfP was considered as termination of the security agreement: however, it is believed that some talks are ongoing in order to confirm the validity of this approach. The practical impact of this, and the very heart of the participation issue is that only 25 EU Member States1 are allowed to be present at the formal joint political or military meetings,2 while on the NATO side all member Nations are present. This issue complicates the classified information exchange between the two organisations as well, especially for documents: even if a NATO document is designated releasable to the EU, it can only be circulated (by EU authorities) to 25 Member States instead of 27. Due to the very nature of the security requirements, this restriction has had (and is still having) an increased impact on cooperation with respect to military issues, rather than issues at the politico-military level. It is believed that the participation issue is becoming more and more embarrassing for the EU, and although there is no sign for any tangible progress, this increasing embarrassment seems to underline the acceptance of this problem as being of a political nature and not only of a military one. Having said that, we should not forget to mention that NATO and EU military bodies have made several attempts to unblock the situation. Almost each option to bring together all Member States and Nations was tested in an informal manner, but it turned out that informal meetings can not substitute for the formal discussions. The respective military staffs also engage in intensive staff to staff exchanges, but again, it can only complement, and not replace, the actual discussions. All in all, as usual, the militarytechnical exchanges can not be decoupled from the political developments, at least not on a permanent basis. 1 After the 1st Jan 2007 enlargement, when Romania and Bulgaria joined EU as full Member State and thus the EU became 27. 2 This covers the NAC-PSC and NATO MC/PS-EUMC joint meetings. AARMS 6(3) (2007) 481 G. HORVÁTH: NATO and EU: Cooperation or competition? It is therefore obvious, that the problem of security agreement – and with this, the participation issue – can be solved only through intensive diplomatic efforts at the political level. However, when issues rise to that high level, other equally important factors come into play, thus contributing even more to the complexity of the present situation. Nations and Member States on the ground: military operations The unresolved political situation described earlier was obviously not the only reason for the flattening NATO-EU relationship. It merely provided a rather good excuse. In fact, the blocking problem concerning Cyprus and Turkey might not have been so longlasting, if this fissure was not so useful for promoting some agendas of a number of EU Member States. This crack has become one of the major engagement areas between those members states who wish more autonomy for the Union in the context of the security policy, and those preferring NATO, and with that, the transatlantic link, to ensure Europe’s security. Berlin Plus worked well during the planning of the second ESDP military operation with recourse to NATO assets and capabilities, Operation ALTHEA, in Bosnia and Herzegovina. ALTHEA became a clear success. The safe and secure environment in Bosnia and Herzegovina is permanently ensured. This success has already led to considerations on the reduction of force levels, which clearly anticipates the achievement of the desired military end state relatively soon. But even the relatively small Operation ALTHEA needed special command and control arrangements between the appropriate military levels, since there was (and there still is) a sizeable difference between the EU and NATO operational chains of command3. The preparations for this operation also seriously tested the differing interpretations of the agreement. In comparison with CONCORDIA, not only the size and nature of the operation was different, but also the circumstances in Brussels and elsewhere. Interestingly, most of the open questions were solved in the field rather quickly, where the need for practical solutions was more pressing than at higher levels (and, in fact, the political implications were accordingly less visible). Later, one official in Brussels even commented that Operation ALTHEA was going well, in spite of Berlin Plus. None in the field echoed that comment. 3 A specific EU Command Element was created at NATO Joint Forces Command Naples, and has been inserted into the chain of command between SHAPE and the EUFOR force headquarters. The reason behind this is that NATO operations in the Balkans are led by JFC Naples, while the default EU Operations Commander (OpCdr) is DSACEUR at SHAPE, when the operation is conducted with recourse to NATO assets and capabilities. 482 AARMS 6(3) (2007) G. HORVÁTH: NATO and EU: Cooperation or competition? Although ALTHEA – and thus the Berlin Plus agreement – was successful, past history has shown that the Balkans can not be piecemealed in political terms. Some argue, that if the EU had been more patient, a better, more comprehensive solution could have been worked out for the takeover of the NATO operations by the EU in the Balkans, including both major NATO operations, SFOR and KFOR. In the light of the events it is difficult to see how the EU could have mustered the necessary assets and capabilities for such an ambitious undertaking, not to mention its lack of operational experience. Also, there are views that if ALTHEA had not been launched as a separate EU operation, there would have been less concern about the spill over effect of the developments in Kosovo. In accordance with the terms of the old proverb, “each vendor is wiser after the market has closed”. After the successful launch of Operation CONCORDIA, the EU started to conduct a series of autonomous ESDP operations (or activities) of different nature and scale. Here, we will only mention the military ones: Operation ARTEMIS in mid 2003, Operation EUFOR RD CONGO in 2006 (both in the Democratic Republic of Congo), and the support of the African Union peacekeeping force (AMIS) in the Darfur region of Sudan. Both undertakings in DRC were limited in scale, scope and time. Operation ARTEMIS, the first autonomous EU military crisis management operation fulfilled the expectations: it provided a proof of feasibility in terms of unifying political will and military means of the EU for such an action. Without underestimating the achievements of the mission itself, ARTEMIS could be considered rather as an experimental test case for the EU. It did validate, among others, a number of concepts and procedures previously adopted, and contributed to the revision of some others. The most important were those provisions to be revised – in both political and military terms – that dealt with military rapid response. Therefore later on, the size and nature of Operation ARTEMIS has set an example for the development of the EU Battlegroups initiative. Parallel to that, we can also assess that the success of ARTEMIS also provided a positive feedback to the European Security Strategy that was being drafted at that time. More controversial experiences were gained in the context of the next military activity of the Union, the support to the African Union in Sudan. Even the beginning was difficult: no mechanism existed to send EU military personnel abroad outside of the framework of an ESDP operation. This problem, although many of its aspects were rather soon addressed on the requests of some concerned Member States,4 still has not been entirely solved. In fact, no other international organisation sends military 4 Ireland and Hungary were the first to send “EU” military observers. AARMS 6(3) (2007) 483 G. HORVÁTH: NATO and EU: Cooperation or competition? observers and advisors without providing for their sustainment and security. The UN, as the biggest actor in peacekeeping, has always paid attention to these arrangements. NATO also supports AMIS, but the cooperation with EU is rather limited to deconfliction (unlike the EU, NATO has not sent military observers to the area). Over the course of time, both organisations have decreased their activity, and limited themselves to the role of “clearing house”, where Nations’ and Member States’ donations and contributions are noted and more or less coordinated. Many questions marked the start for planning the second autonomous EU military crisis management operation, Operation EUFOR RD CONGO, in early 2006. Some EU officials, and perhaps some Member States, would have intended to launch it as the first clearly EU Battlegroup operation, but the circumstances simply did not correspond to the political and military criteria set forth for the use of a Battlegroup. For example, there was no need for rapid military reaction. Therefore, a “classic” force generation effort took place, and the operation was conducted and terminated without generating any noticeable strategic or politico-military lessons so far. In other words, Operation EUFOR RD CONGO apparently could not be used as a new test case for further development of the ESDP in the operational area. It could, however, contribute to maintaining the military momentum of the ESDP, in terms of autonomous EU operations. The reason behind this is that there was a clear perception in Brussels, that autonomous EU military crisis management operations had suffered a setback from 2004 to early 2006, especially when compared to the diversity of the many civilian crisis management operations launched by the EU at that time. One could have the impression that it was not only a useful – although not decisive – operation, but chiefly a successful “show the flag” mission. Turning to NATO operations, 2007 could prove to be a decisive year for many reasons. Although Kosovo will probably acquire a degree of autonomy in political terms, the NATO military operation (KFOR) is clearly far from the end state. In Afghanistan, NATO forces of the ISAF mission are literally fighting to establish a safe and secure environment - and gaining more and more terrain. In both cases (although at different levels) the need to complement the military operations more with civilian crisis management capabilities is increasingly clear. EU authorities have already started to plan a civilian police mission in Kosovo, and have also started to prepare the decision to have a mission of similar kind in Afghanistan (although the objectives, the nature and the scope of that mission are still in the preliminary stage of considerations). Iraq, where NATO is present with its NATO Training Mission (NTMI), is a far less appropriate place for any ambitious EU operation for the time being. Finally, the only 484 AARMS 6(3) (2007) G. HORVÁTH: NATO and EU: Cooperation or competition? NATO operation with respect to Article V, Operation ACTIVE ENDEAVOUR, is steadily conducted in a rather low profile. Due to the critical importance of this year in political and operational terms, time has never been more appropriate to manifest the NATO-EU strategic partnership, especially in Kosovo and in Afghanistan. The capabilities and means exist, and the political will is favourable in both institutions to resurrect the moribund NATO-EU relationship. It is now time to prove that this collective will is able to prevail over national ambitions and agendas. The stakes are high: a non-cooperative stance would further widen the gap, and this could result in a state where the gap becomes unbreachable. Following this negative scenario, those being members in both organisations would face the bitter necessity of making a choice between the Alliance and the Union, clearly a choice which most of them will try to avoid having to make. Capability gaps, competing demands, and only one set of forces Beyond the actual operations, a lot of effort was made in the field of the development of military capabilities for crisis management within the ESDP. To this end two Headline Goals, HLG 2003 and HLG 2010, set up a pool of European forces. However, the requirements in HLG 2003 were basically aimed at gathering the capability of conducting an army corps size military crisis management (or in NATO terms: “peace support”) operation, without any particular objective for developing new capabilities. HLG 2010 was (and is) clearly pursuing the development of new European military capabilities. In quantitative terms, HLG 2003 was created around a 60000 strong military force, sustainable for one year in the area of operations. HLG 2010 has not gone beyond this number, it has only refined the picture: in order to sustain such a force in the field for such a long time, troop rotation requirements would be about three times the 60000, which is already close to the total deployable forces within the European Union. These forces are obviously not available for any given time, because these are the very forces actually deployed in NATO operations, UN missions and coalition operations - or simply committed as standby forces of the NRF.5 Some experts remind us that the number of the currently deployed European forces roughly corresponds to the Headline Goal(s), a fact which actually renders those goals more credible.6 However, if we look at it from a different angle, this might equally mean that those forces as a whole would never be available for the Union from a Headline Goal perspective. 5 6 NATO Response Force BISCOP, Sven (d.). E pluribus Unum? Military Integration in the European Union AARMS 6(3) (2007) 485 G. HORVÁTH: NATO and EU: Cooperation or competition? The obvious solution is the inevitable increase of deployability and sustainability of national military forces - in NATO terms, increase of the usability of these forces. This is justified by the trends of the last decade, when the demands for out-of-area operations have been steadily growing. However, most of the European national administrations seem unwilling to meet the inherent financial demands that come with supporting these high ambitions. This rather embarrassing phenomenon is not unique to the EU, as the difficulties to generate the follow-on rotations for the NATO Response Force have repeatedly shown. In qualitative terms, a number of capability shortfalls were identified during the work on Headline Goal 2003, and most of them were addressed in the format of the ECAP7 project group. However, it turned out that the bottom-up approach had its limits, so when the European Defence Agency was created in 2004, most of the gap-filling projects were re-allocated in the form of an IDP.8 (Only those needing uniquely doctrinal solutions remained in the hands of the EU Military Committee). The EU has transformed its capability development efforts to real capability building, although a tremendous amount of work still lay ahead. Meanwhile, in an attempt to avoid duplication of effort, a number of capabilities have been coordinated – initially at leading Nation/Member State level – between ECAPs (later IDPs) and NATO PCC project teams. Most of the exchanges took place at the meetings of the NATO-EU Capability Group, a joint forum created in 2003. These exchanges are now slowly turning into real cooperation between the players (the relevant EU, NATO and national agencies), overtaking the rather limited scope of (very basic) de-confliction. Nevertheless, no common decision could ever be made, because NATO and the EU simply do not have a common body with such an authority. Like its predecessor, Headline Goal 2010 does not envisage any standing common military assets, or capabilities (if we don’t count the Operation Centre at the EU Military Staff), a difference which should be highlighted when a comparison is made with NATO. Nevertheless, the need for permanently available capabilities remains valid, especially in the areas of strategic lift and strategic level command, contol, communications and information (C3I). The issue of strategic airlift has been addressed on many occasions, although the solutions are still not able to cover the needs for the forces corresponding to the level of ambition. The same applies to NATO, although there the latest decision on “pooled” Allied acquisition of C-17 aircraft seems to ease the burden somewhat. Again, there is only one practical example of some form of 7 8 European Capability Action Plan Integrated Development Team 486 AARMS 6(3) (2007) G. HORVÁTH: NATO and EU: Cooperation or competition? coordination between NATO and EU needs: the SALIS9 arrangement. Beyond the terms of SALIS, Nations and Member States are on their own. Concerning actual airlift acquisitions, the European A-400 fleet is still far away from landing proximity. Another example is the relationship between the aforementioned EU Battlegroup and NATO Response Force. Although the doctrinal (or conceptual) background is somewhat different, in the end, both initiatives are aiming at the most capable, mobile, light land forces of the Nations and Member States. The weak attempts made for deconfliction or coordination of the rosters of these forces failed, as the de-confliction is to remain with the Nations and Member States. These examples serve to highlight the dichotomy regarding the responsibilites of the Nations/Member States, and also the dilemma facing when considering their commitments to NATO and/or the EU. In sum, both organisations are looking after the very same high quality portion of the national forces. Since the demands are apparently competing, it necessarily follows that a reasonable sharing of responsibility must take place, or else the strategic partnership as such will be plagued by permanent competition. Europe’s armed forces are dangerously overstretched. Some of them literally, others in financial terms. Defence budgets, with some exceptions, are decreasing. The fewer resources provided for them, the more the danger of non-availability for operations will be present. No duplication will be accepted or tolerated. Hence, cooperation between NATO and EU is not merely a diplomatic exercise, but the essential insurance against future failures resulting from inadequate manning and equiping of Allied or European undertakings in the field of international security. Way ahead? With all of the complexities involved, it is very unlikely that any new Berlin Plus based EU military crisis management operation will be launched in the near future. In fact, if all other options have failed to remedy the present situation, Berlin Plus should be rediscussed, no matter how hazardous of an exercise it would be. Most of the players are well aware of the fact that it probably involves the risk of having more restrictions, instead of the enlargement of the field of cooperation. Perhaps the very nature of the cooperation should be re-considered. Some of the Brussels think tanks are now considering an almost revolutionary new approach.10 They argue that the EU would become the real European pillar of NATO, regrouping 9 Strategic AirLift Interim Solution See BISCOP, Sven: NATO, ESDP and the Riga Summit: No transformation without Re-equilibration 10 AARMS 6(3) (2007) 487 G. HORVÁTH: NATO and EU: Cooperation or competition? the European Allies and thus giving a more coordinated and more coherent, sounding voice of their common needs and interests when talking to their transatlantic partners. It is hard to believe however, that Member States would subordinate their own interests, and would be able to accept giving up such a huge portion of their own sovereignty, at least not until a deeper European integration takes place. 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