Multi-Asset Strategies April 2016 2 bfinance Multi-Asset Strategies April 2016 bfinance is an independent, privately owned, financial services firm that provides advice and solutions to companies and institutional investors around the globe. We combine specialist expertise with a global perspective to help our clients develop, implement and manage best-in-class investment programmes. Our in-house capabilities span all traditional and alternative asset classes. We deliver customised services. Our teams have earned a reputation for innovative research, reporting and fund selection. Increasingly, as our clients’ needs evolve, we also act as a specialist advisor. bfinance is headquartered in London, with offices in Paris, Amsterdam, Munich, Montreal and Sydney. The firm has advised over 300 of the world’s most sophisticated institutional investors across over 28 countries and with total assets in excess of $2.5 trillion. © bfinance 2016 To receive future publications in electronic form, please visit our Web site at www.bfinance.com 3 bfinance Multi-Asset Strategies April 2016 Table of Contents 04 Introduction 04 Balanced Strategies 05 Diversified Growth Strategies 06 Absolute Return Strategies ‘Advanced’ Diversified Growth Fund Diversified Alternatives Alternative Risk Premia / Alternative Beta 07 Key Selection Criteria 4 bfinance Multi-Asset Strategies April 2016 Introduction Multi-asset strategies are a diverse group of investment approaches which vary widely in their permitted investment universe, investment style and risk/return objectives. The earliest versions were balanced funds (some funds that are still in existence date back to the 1920s), which allocated relatively statically to standard liquid assets, predominantly developed market equities and high quality bonds. As the institutional investment landscape has changed to encompass a wider range of asset classes, sub-asset classes and investment strategies, so too has the multi-asset space with a move towards more total return or absolute return objectives and generally a greater focus on diversifying away from the heavy equity risk present in balanced strategies. Over time, strategies have generally increased in their level of sophistication and the manager landscape now ranges from those more traditional balanced products, though more diversified but still largely long-only approaches, to true absolute return strategies which may have more in common with hedge funds than the balanced approaches. The level of complexity, risk/return objectives and many other factors in the multi-asset space vary widely, so careful mandate definition and manager selection is key. What essentially unites all these strategies is the ability to invest across a range of asset classes and instruments with the fund manager varying the allocation to each according to economic conditions, performance/risk expectations or other factors. Though the heterogeneity of approaches makes sharp delineations of the manager universe challenging, we elaborate on three broad categories below. These categories should not necessarily be seen as mutually exclusive, nor jointly exhaustive, of the multi-asset space, but provide some thoughts on the landscape of different approaches available and the different roles that they can play in the portfolio of an institutional investor. Balanced Strategies – long-only equity and fixed income The longest-running and simplest multi-asset strategies can be categorised as traditional and balanced; long-only equity and bond portfolios with a relatively static strategic asset allocation. To a large extent, such strategies mirrored the institutional investor’s typical fixed income / equity portfolios before the development of some of the more exotic or niche asset classes or indeed before hedge funds and alternative strategies were offered as an institutional asset class. Within such funds, tactical changes to the asset allocation between equity and bonds is a somewhat more marginal driver of value given the typically tight permitted limits around a strategic mix (e.g. 50% equity & 50% bonds, +/- 5-10% on a tactical basis). As such, risk and return characteristics can be largely attributed to directional market exposure (market beta), with the equity allocation typically dominating the level of risk. Benchmarks / Performance Attribution > Comparatively easy to benchmark using a relevant strategic blend (such as 60/40 or 50/50 equity/bond mix) > With such closely determined asset class limits, performance attribution to asset allocation decisions (strategic benchmark vs. a manager’s timing through being overweight equity or bonds) and security selection (added value within each asset class) can be done with relative simplicity. > Due to active decisions being more marginal drivers of return, performance dispersion among managers with similar strategic benchmarks is relatively low. Role in the Portfolio For investors with a benchmarked strategy, traditional balanced funds can provide a useful way of outsourcing tactical asset allocation decisions and the chance to exploit a manager’s skill in timing allocations across asset classes. They are also appropriate for those investors 5 bfinance Multi-Asset Strategies April 2016 who have a ‘simplicity first’ approach, seeking to harvest traditional risk premia in a cost effective manner as the primary objective with a smaller role for added value from manager skill. We would note that in general, interest in truly traditional balanced approaches has waned as investors look for more diversified exposures in their multi-asset allocations and/or take tactical decision making in-house and select single asset class specialists for standard markets. However within this category, dedicated emerging markets focused approaches have been of interest to our clients. Diversified Growth Strategies – increasingly diversified but still essentially long risk assets As markets have developed and an increasing number of strategies and asset classes have become available, institutional portfolios have evolved and so too has the multi-asset fund manager space. Diversified Growth strategies, whilst still predominantly long-only, make use of the increasing number of asset classes available investing in both traditional (fixed income, equity) and alternative spaces (real estate, infrastructure, commodities, private equity, credit, hedge funds) as well as being much more active in their asset allocation decisions. In particular many strategies will have wide permitted ranges of exposures to the various asset classes that are used (e.g. equity exposure 0-70%) as well as greater freedom in the methods of implementation. For example in taking equity exposure, managers may use index futures or ETFs to gain efficient and broad access (although even here different styles may be used such as Value-Growth, Size etc), or for more nuanced exposures active strategies or custom baskets either managed internally or externally may be selected. The inclusion of alternative asset classes and strategies (typically in moderate amounts of c.10-30%) is one defining feature relative to balanced approaches. However even within traditional asset classes there has been a widening of the investment universe. Within fixed income areas of credit such as high yield, emerging market debt and structured credit are commonly used, along with the use of currency as an alpha driver. The same can be said of equities, with the greater use of emerging market allocations in particular relative to the traditional balanced approach. This growing complexity and wider investment universe provides managers with an increasing number of ‘levers to pull’ and consequently a manager’s level of activity and skill is central to adding value and driving performance. Though still fundamentally long risk assets, such strategies will vary in beta exposure both between managers and across time. Rather than simply taking a view on the level of growth versus defensive assets held and tilting portfolio weights within a fairly narrow range, managers are able to vary asset allocation more widely and use a wider variety of asset classes ultimately with the goal of providing a smoother return profile than that experienced in balanced approaches, which as mentioned above, typically have their risk profile dominated by the level of equity exposure. Benchmarks / Performance Attribution > Inherently harder to benchmark given the increased number of tools available to managers in order to drive return. > A departure from clear strategic asset class-based benchmarks to more absolute / total return targets is common; e.g. cash rates or inflation index + a margin (3-6% generally) depending on the level of risk. Qualitative performance and risk targets are common, e.g. equity-like returns with less than half the volatility of equities over 3-5 year periods. > Dispersion of returns between managers can be high, particularly around ‘turning points’ in the performance of risk assets. 6 bfinance Multi-Asset Strategies April 2016 Role in the Portfolio Diversified Growth funds are generally used as a (partial) replacement for, or diversifier to, an equity allocation within the growth portfolio of institutional investors. We have also seen certain institutional investors using these strategies for their whole portfolio, essentially outsourcing all asset allocation decisions to the chosen manager(s) – this is typically appropriate for smaller pools of capital where internal resources are more limited. Diversified Growth funds can allow such investors to gain multi-asset exposure in one solution rather than overseeing a multi-manager portfolio of asset class specialists. Absolute Return Strategies – furthering diversification This is in itself a broad category with the unifying factor generally being an increasing diversification of investment styles away from being long risk assets. ‘Advanced’ Diversified Growth Funds A group of products have been developed that are commonly classified as Diversified Growth Funds, but depart from the definition used above in making less use of long market exposures to drive returns. In particular they make much more extensive use of the ability to take short positions (at both market and security levels) either as part of directional (negative) views or as part of a relative value trade. Unlike traditional balanced and diversified growth approaches which have inherent long directional exposure to risk assets, these strategies generally seek to generate returns much less correlated to broader markets. Managers offering such products are much more active and strategies far more complex including the use of notional leverage (through derivatives). Such strategies are more akin to global macro hedge funds, though typically provide increased diversification and liquidity. Diversified Alternatives There are also multi-asset products that focus specifically on the alternatives space. Such portfolios may include a mix of hedge funds, private equity/debt, real estate equity debt, niche credit, infrastructure, commodities, timber/farmland, catastrophe bonds etc. As a result these can be significantly less liquid strategies. Diversified alternative strategies can be seen as offering a one-stop shop for a true alternatives allocation without the investor having to manage for example, a private markets and a hedge fund program separately. As such they can in particular be attractive to smaller investors who lack the resources to take a more granular approach. For larger investors, managers of such strategies are also able to provide tailored portfolios with the explicit aim of complementing or diversifying exposures elsewhere. Alternative Risk Premia / Alternative Beta Alternative risk premia (alternative beta) strategies are a somewhat newer variety of multiasset strategies (please see ‘Alternative Beta’ - Chris Stevens, Senior Associate, bfinance). Essentially such approaches are rules-based (systematic) and make use of non-traditional investment techniques (shorting, leverage) to isolate attractive risk premia beyond those available via long-only investments in traditional asset classes. In particular, they seek to capture the various ‘style premia’ (value, carry, momentum etc) in a market neutral manner. For example, they may seek to capture the value premia in equities by being long value stocks and short growth stocks such that beta neutrality is maintained, or they may implement FX carry trades by being long high carry currencies, funded by short positions in low carry currencies. Certain managers also seek bottom up replication of certain hedge fund trading styles, for example merger arbitrage. Alternative beta strategies can be an efficient way of accessing truly diversifying return streams that are typically characteristic of hedge fund allocations for those investors that, for 7 bfinance Multi-Asset Strategies April 2016 legal or regulatory reasons, are not currently able to access these return streams, or for investors that simply do not wish to take the illiquidity, high fees and lack of transparency that can be part of hedge fund investing. Benchmarks / Performance Attribution > Absolute return products are typically highly outcome-oriented, work towards a stated outcome and target an objective such as cash +4-5% over a 3-5 year period. Alternative beta strategies are typically managed to a target level of risk, frequently with an explicit target of beta neutrality. > Performance attribution is inherently more challenging. Emphasis should be placed on the level of transparency the fund manager provides in their underlying holdings / positioning. Role in the Portfolio Absolute return multi-asset strategies are capable of playing a variety of roles, but principally are also used as a diversifier to equity risk. In explicitly targeting returns that are less correlated to risk assets they can bring diversification to the wider portfolio in particular by providing exposure to niche asset classes, different risk premia and / or investment styles. In many cases they can be used alongside, or in place of, other alternative investments such as standalone hedge fund allocations. Key Selection Criteria Given the heterogeneity of potential approaches, it is often difficult to make direct relative comparisons of either quantitative or qualitative factors across a peer group particularly for the Diversified Growth or Absolute Return strategies. A tailored approach is required, assessing each strategy on its merits and issues individually. The bfinance team have experience in assessing all of the strategies described above. The team size and background of key people should be complementary to the strategy proposed. For example, strategies investing globally in individual stocks, bonds, commodities etc based on fundamental analysis will need greater depth of team resources than more systematic strategies such as risk parity or alternative beta where quantitative research and efficient implementation experience among a typically smaller team will be more important. It is also important to understand a managers’ capability through the use of wider resources within the organisation often not reflected in headline team numbers for the strategy. In particular, many mangers will merge top-down and bottom-up approaches by having a small asset allocation team that can bring greater depth and experience to the strategy by allocating slices of the portfolio to other teams / individuals within the firm, or to carefully selected external managers. Performance analysis should incorporate not just annualized returns and volatility, but also the higher moments of the distribution. Performance during challenging markets for growth assets (2008, 2011) should be scrutinized and understood based on attribution analysis. Attribution analysis detailing the contributions to performance of the strategic asset allocation, tactical decisions as well as position selection should also be analyzed where relevant. Multi-asset strategies will generally have a wide range of risk factors that they can take exposure to on a dynamic basis so the proprietary bfinance risk model can be an appropriate tool for manager analysis. This can also enable an examination of the potential diversification benefits to an investor’s total portfolio beyond a simple historical returnsbased analysis. Operational due diligence may also be appropriate for the more complex strategies in this space. 8 bfinance Multi-Asset Strategies April 2016 For systematic strategies in particular, an ongoing research program into the models used to determine allocations is seen as a positive. Significant changes to the process affects the reliability of track records however. Capacity and liquidity constraints should also be examined where relevant. Liquidity levels depend heavily on the underlying holdings. Strategies investing predominantly in futures and liquid cash markets will be able to provide daily or weekly liquidity and many strategies are available in UCITS format. To an extent, this is very much a structural feature; for managers to be able to take an active approach to asset allocation and capture changes in the environment liquidity is needed to efficiently execute the strategy. Within the Diversified Alternatives allocation, longer liquidity can be appropriate if private markets or the less liquid hedge fund strategies are utilised. Finally, as might be expected, there are a wide range of fee levels for the various approaches described above. In general, fees increase with complexity. 9 bfinance Multi-Asset Strategies April 2016 Our Diversifying Strategies Team supports clients with portfolio strategy and design, risk advice and manager search and selection. bfinance has conducted over 750 bespoke manager search and selection exercises for over 250 clients in 28 countries around with world advising on over $150 billion across all asset classes. > Specialist asset class units with extensive practical experience > Flexible ongoing or project-based partnership > Direct co-operation with senior staff comprising industry practitioners > Our approach is bespoke and fully customised > Exhaustive coverage of the manager universe, no ‘buy-lists’ Diversifying Strategies bfinance International Ltd Clareville House 26-27 Oxendon Street, London WC2E 9HE T: +44 20 7747 8600 IMPORTANT NOTICES PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL This document contains confidential and proprietary information of bfinance and is intended for the exclusive use of the parties to whom it was provided by bfinance. Its content may not be modified, sold, or otherwise provided, in whole or in part, to any other person or entity without bfinance’s prior written permission. OPINIONS NOT GUARANTEES The findings, ratings, and/or opinions expressed herein are the intellectual property of bfinance and are subject to change without notice. They are not intended to convey any guarantees as to the future performance of the investment products, asset classes, or capital markets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The value of investments can go down as well as up. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE This report does not contain investment advice relating to your particular circumstances. No investment decision should be made based on the information contained herein without first obtaining appropriate professional advice and considering your own circumstances. 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