Market Research
Energy Efficiency Baseline and Opportunities
Based on preliminary results of a report
commissioned by Efficiency Maine Trust and
completed by;
Study Scope
• Baseline Study
• Energy efficiency opportunities
assessment
• Distributed generation opportunities
assessment
2
Baseline Study and Analysis
Baseline Study
• Visited 133 sites
– 103 commercial
• Random sample of 69 plus additional surveys in
key segments - Restaurants, Grocery, Retail
– 30 industrial
• Collected baseline information on
equipment saturations, efficiency levels,
efficiency attitudes
• Inform assessment of opportunities
4
Baseline Study (cont)
• Overall Commercial – 90/10*
• Overall Industrial – 90/15
• Key Commercial Segments ≈ 90/20
– Grocery
– Office
– Restaurant
– Retail
* 90% confidence that results are accurate with a ±10% margin of error
5
Commercial Lighting Overview
5%
42%
53%
Interior Fluorescent
Tube
Interior NonFluorescent Tube
Exterior
Percent of Installed Wattage
6
Interior Fluorescent Tube Lighting
Efficient Fluorescent Lighting Has Captured A
Large Business Market Share
4%
20%
6%
High Performance T8s
70%
Percent of Fixtures
7
T12
STD T8
HPT8
T5
Interior Non Fluorescent Tube Lighting
Metal Halide and Incandescent Lighting in Maine Businesses
Present Opportunities for Energy Savings
2%
30%
Metal
Halide
CFL
40%
LED
Incandescent
Metal Halide
Other
Incandescent
25%
Percent of Fixtures
8
3%
Exterior Lighting
LEDs are Beginning to Penetrate the Exterior
Business Lighting Market
11%
4%
9%
HPSodium
LED
Mercury Vapor
56%
17%
Metal Halide
LED
CFL
Incandescent
4%
Percent of Fixtures
9
Interior Lighting Controls
Lighting Controls Represent a Significant
Savings Opportunity
Controlled
10%
Manual On/Off
90%
10
Residential Sector Baseline Data
Utilized existing, available data sources including: Efficiency Maine evaluation
Reports, utility appliance saturation data, and regional survey data
Efficiency Maine Trust Residential Lighting Program Evaluation: Interim Report (Cadmus)
11
Energy Efficiency Opportunities
•
Technical Potential
–
•
Economic Potential
–
–
•
Complete saturation of all cost-effective technical potential
Used Maine-specific 2011 Avoided Cost Forecast from AESC Study for 2011-2041
Achievable Potential
–
13
Complete Saturation of all technically feasible electric efficiency measures
Subset of economic potential that is achievable given market barriers and length of
analysis
•
•
•
•
Measure list compiled based on current measures/programs currently
offered by Efficiency Maine
Analysis also includes additional technologies offered by similar programs
across the region
Measure list reviewed and revised by Efficiency Maine Trust prior to
analysis
Total of 245 measures included across all customer classes
– Residential: 37 measures
– Commercial: 127 measures
– Industrial: 81 measures
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Technical
Potential
of
Efficient
Measure
Total
Number of
=
X
Households
or Buildings
Base
Case
Factor
X
Remaining
Applicability
X
X
Factor
Factor
Base Case
Equipment
End Use
Intensity
[kWh/unit]
X
Savings
Factor
Technical Potential Calculation Example






530,011 Existing Year-Round SF Homes
39.5% of homes have stand-alone freezers
12% of all freezers are energy efficient
100% applicability
673 kWh ; Standard New Freezer
10% ; Percent savings of ENERGY STAR
freezer
15
530,011 * 39.5% = 209,354 homes with freezers
209,354 * 88% = 184,232 homes with inefficient freezers
184,232 * 100% = 184,232 (all applicable)
184,232 * 673 kWh = 123,988,136 kWh (freezer usage)
123,988,136 kWh * 10% = 12,398,814 kWh (savings)
• Total Resource Cost (TRC) Test
– Benefits Include:
• Avoided Electric Energy (including RPS, and carbon) and Capacity Costs,
• Avoided non-electric fuel benefits, Water.
• Costs Include:
• Incremental measure costs
• Program delivery costs
• Administrative cost
$ Benefit > 1
$ Cost
16
Definition: Maximum Achievable Potential describes the
economic potential that could be achieved over a given time
period under the most aggressive program scenario.
To reach maximum achievable potential, study assumes:
1) Very high penetration levels over the 10-yr period
2) High Incentive levels.
3) Primarily assumes a replace-on-burnout approach.
4) Assumes that installed efficiency measures persist throughout the
10-year study period
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Opportunity
18
Achievable Potential
Energy (MWh)
Lighting
328,406
Appliances
154,185
Electronics
141,156
Water Heating
123,694
HVAC (Equipment)
114,997
HVAC (Envelope)
59,857
Other
42,094
Total
964,389
% of 2021 Residential
Forecast Sales
19
18.4%
Residential Lighting by Measure
50.0%
40.0%
38.8%
30.0%
22.8%
19.7%
20.0%
12.0%
10.0%
6.7%
0.0%
ENERGY STAR Standard CFL
20
ENERGY STAR Specialty CFL
LED Lighting
Dedicated Exterior Fixture
20
Dedicated CFL Fixture
Achievable Potential
Energy (MWh)
Lighting
266,330
Ventilation
196,768
Refrigeration
171,388
Space Cooling
71,262
Office Equipment
57,104
Space Heating
41,674
Water Heating
29,869
Compressed Air
12,395
Other
5,218
Cooking
2,153
TOTAL
% of 2021 Commercial
Forecast Sales
21
854,162
18.49%
Space Heating
Office Equip 5%
Other
7%
6%
Lighting
31%
Space Cooling
8%
Refrigeration
20%
Ventilation
23%
35%
32%
Percent of Total End-Use Savings
30%
28%
25%
20%
18%
15%
10%
10%
9%
5%
3%
1%
0%
LED
22
Occupancy
Sensors
Non T-12
T12
Fluorescent Replacement
CFL
Lighting
Controls
Other
Achievable Potential
Energy (MWh)
Machine Drive
171,307
Lighting
62,853
Ventilation
23,965
Space Cooling
22,507
Process Cooling & Refrig
9,988
HVAC Controls
7,942
Office Equipment
6,858
Process Heating
5,867
Water Heating
5,297
Envelope
2,245
Other
2,117
TOTAL
320,947
% of 2021 Commercial
Forecast Sales
Process Cooling &
Refrig
3%
Process Heating
2%
Other
8%
Space Cooling
7%
Ventilation
7%
Machine Drive
53%
Lighting
20%
9.8%
Energy Savings (as a % of 2021 Sales) by End-Use
23
Industrial Machine Drive Savings by Measure
70%
Percent of Total End-Use Savings
60%
59%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
10%
10%
7%
4%
4%
3%
2%
1%
Advanced
Efficient
Motors
Energy
Information
System
Advanced
Lubricants
Fan System
Improvements
0%
Motor System Electric Supply
Optimization
System
(Including ASD) Improvements
24
Sensors &
Controls
Pump System
Industrial
Efficiency
Motor
Improvements Management
Combined Heat and Power
Assessment
Combined Heat and Power
• Fuels considered:
– Natural gas
– Biogas
– Biomass
• Includes combined cooling heat and power
(CCHP), which uses thermal output with
absorption chiller for cooling
• Evaluated cost effectiveness (based on TRC)
• For measures with TRC B/C >1, estimated
technical and achievable potential
26
CHP Cost Effectiveness Screening
• Cost effective for most configurations:
– Natural gas-fueled
• Gas turbine
• Reciprocating engine
– Biogas-fueled
• Gas turbine & microturbine
• Reciprocating engine
– Biomass-fueled steam turbine
• Not found to be cost effective:
– Natural gas-fueled microturbines
– Fuel cells
27
CHP Analysis
• Used CMP customer data to determine C&I
facility types and sizes in the state
• Applied data on best facility types for CHP
(based on coincidence of thermal and electric
loads) to determine total technical potential
• Used data from other states to estimate
achievable potential as a percent of technical
– California Self Generation Incentive Program
– Also compared with activity in Massachusetts,
Vermont, New Hampshire
28
Biogas & Biomass CHP Analysis
• Evaluated variety of sources:
– EPA Landfill Methane Outreach Program
• 10 sites in Maine with CHP potential
– Wastewater treatment facilities
• None in Maine meet recommended minimum of 5 million
gallons per day
– Agricultural opportunities
• 8 Maine dairy farms meet recommended size for CHP
– Paper/wood product manufacturing facilities
• CMP data shows 18 with current demand 1+ MW
• Assumed achievable potential is 10% of biomass/biogas
technical potential, higher percentage than natural gas due
to higher cost effectiveness
29
CHP – Achievable Opportunities
• Likely installations over 10 years:
– 22 with 12.5 MW capacity
• Natural gas – 5.6 MW (18 installations)
• Biogas – 700 kW (1 landfill, 1 dairy farm)
• Biomass – 6.2 MW (2 paper/wood waste)
• Strong outreach efforts, especially to large
facilities, could further increase the installed
capacity
– 90 facilities in Maine with technical potential for
systems of 1 MW or more
30