5. BASE-STOCK SYSTEM FOR PATIENT CUSTOMER WITH DEMAND
DISTRIBUTION UNDERGOING A CHANGE
5.1 INTRODUCTION
In this chapter, the base-stock for patient customer is studied. The
base-stock system for patient customer is a different type of inventory policy
in which an ordering mechanism of a new type is introduced. Under the basestock systems, the total inventory on hand is to be taken as the sum of the
actual inventory on ground and inventory due to orders for replenishment. In
this model, the inventory process starts with initial inventory of size π΅.
Whenever a customer order is received, it is supplied immediately and
at the same time a replenishment order is placed immediately. The
replenishment takes place after a lead time πΏ. If the demand exceeds this
stock level on hand then customer do not leave, but they wait till supply is
received. For this reason the customer are called patient customer. In this
case there is no shortage cost, but some concession is shown to the
customer and it is a denoted as a shortage cost. The total inventory is
denoted as π΅, which is the sum of the inventory on hand, and inventory on
order. This is called Base-Stock. Here the demand during the period [0, π‘] is
taken to be a random variable.
In this model it is assumed that, the distribution of the random variable
denoting the demand undergoes a change in the distribution after a change
or truncation point. The demand distributions in this model is distributed as
an exponential before the truncation point and distributed as Erlang2 after the
truncation point. Truncated exponential distribution discussed in chapter 4 is
used to obtain the optimal expected cost of base-stock system for patient
customer.
The objective is to derive the expression for optimal base-stock and
also numerical illustration is provided. If lead-time demand is denoted as π
then π(π) is the probability density of this random variable. Under these
circumstances the equation for the expected cost can be written in the form
91
π΅
β
πΈ(πΆ) = β β«(π΅ β π) π(π)ππ + π β« (π β π΅) π(π)ππ
0
π΅
(5.1)
The optimal value of π΅ is to be determined by taking
ππΈ(πΆ)
ππ΅
= 0 and can
π
be shown that the optimal value π΅ is one such that πΉ(π΅Μ ) = π+β where π΅Μ is
optimal π΅ and πΉ(π) is the cumulative distribution of the random variable π.
This model has been discussed in Hanssman F [33]. The base stock system
for patient customer has been initially discussed by Gaver D.P [21] and a
modification of this model has been attempted by Ramanarayanan R [54]
In this chapter, a new model is developed by assuming that during the
lead time πΏ which is deterministic, there are πΎ different demand epochs and
the demand during these epochs are denoted as π1 , π2 , π3 , β¦ , ππ , which are
identically independent random variables. The inter-arrival times between the
demand epochs are also random variables which are identically independent
with the density function π(. ) and the distribution function πΊ(. ). The
probability there will be exactly n demands denoting the lead-time πΏ is given
as π[πΎ = πβπΏ] = πΊπ (πΏ) β πΊπβ1 (πΏ) by the renewal theory which is discussed in
chapter 4 where πΊπ (πΏ) is π-fold convolution of G with itself. Therefore the
probability of total demand is utmost π during πΏ is
π
π(π β€ π) = ββ
π=0 π(π1 + π2 + β― + ππ β€ π) . π [πΎ = βπΏ ]
(5.2)
where π denotes the number of demand epochs during πΏ
π[π β€ π] = ββ
π=1[πΊπ (πΏ) β πΊπ+1 (πΏ)] . πΉπ (π)
(5.3)
πΉπ (π) is the π βfold convolution of πΉ with itself.
The expression for the expected cost is given as
92
π΅
β
πΈ(πΆ) = β β«(π΅ β π) π(π β€ π)ππ + π β« (π β π΅)π(π β€ π) ππ
0
π΅
(5.4)
where the assumption are followed below. To find the optimal level π΅
satisfies the following equation in accordance with the equation for the
optimal base-stock. Now
π΅
β
πΈ(πΆ) = β β[πΊπ (πΏ) β πΊπ+1 (πΏ)] β«(π΅ β π) π(π β€ π)ππ
π=1
0
β
β
+ π β[πΊπ (πΏ) β πΊπ+1 (πΏ)] β« (π β π΅)π(π β€ π) ππ
π=1
π΅
(5.5)
Using the equation 3.7 of chapter 3, following equation is obtained
β
πΈ(πΆ) = β β[πΊπ (πΏ) β πΊπ+1 (πΏ)] πΉπ (π΅)
π=1
β
+ π β[πΊπ (πΏ) β πΊπ+1 (πΏ)] πΉπ (π΅)[1 β πΉπ (π΅)] = 0
π=1
(5.6)
π
Hence ββ
π=1[πΊπ (πΏ) β πΊπ+1 (πΏ)] πΉπ (π΅) = π+β
(5.7)
on simplification since ββ
π=1[πΊπ (πΏ) β πΊπ+1 (πΏ)] = 1, then equation 5.7
π
becomes πΉπ (π΅Μ ) = π+β. From the model discussed above, a new model is
developed by considering the fact that the demand distribution undergoes a
change after a change point. This assumption of the demand distribution
undergoing a change is valid, since the demand distribution has the very
basic nature that the probability that a random variable denoting the demand
taking a value beyond a certain level may undergo change in its structure.
93
5.2 ASSUMPTIONS
i) The total demand is a constant, which under goes a change of
distribution after a change point π0 .
ii) The distribution of the total demand follows exponential with
parameter π1 and becomes Erlang2 with parameter π2 after the change point.
iii) Also the demand is considered to be truncated exponential
distribution.
5.3 NOTATIONS
β
= Inventory holding cost /unit
π
= Shortage cost/unit
πΉπ (π) = k fold convolution of π(π)
π
= The total demand
5.4 ERLANG2 DISTRIBUTION FOR OPTIMAL BASE STOCK
Assuming that the distribution of π(π) of the random variable π
denoting the demand undergoes a change of distribution in the sense that
π(π) = π1 (π) if π β€ π0
= π2 (π) if π > π0
Where π0 is called the change point. Let the change of distribution in the
expression for expected total cost is incorporated. In doing so, π0 becomes
less than base stock. Hence considering the model when π0 < π΅
94
If π0 < π΅
π0
π΅
πΈ(πΆ) = β β« (π΅ β π) [π1
(π)]π
ππ + β β«(π΅ β π) [π2 (π)]π ππ
0
π0
β
+ π β« (π β π΅) [π2 (π)]π ππ
π΅
(5.8)
by the formulation of rule discussed in chapter 3 as equation 3.7, the
following result is obtained
π0
π΅
ππΈ(πΆ)
π
=
{β β« (π΅ β π) [π1 (π)]π ππ + β β«(π΅ β π) [π2 (π)]π ππ
ππ΅
ππ΅
0
π0
β
+ π β« (π β π΅) [π2 (π)]π ππ}
π΅
(5.9)
π0
π΅
ππΈ(πΆ)
π
π
=
[β β« (π΅ β π) [π1 (π)]π ] ππ +
[β β«(π΅ β π) [π2 (π)]π ] ππ
ππ΅
ππ΅
ππ΅
0
π0
β
π
+
[π β« (π β π΅) [π2 (π)]π ] ππ
ππ΅
π΅
= [πΌ1 + πΌ2 + πΌ3 ]
(5.10)
ππΌ1
To find
ππ΅
π0
π0
0
0
ππΌ1
= β β« (π΅ β π) [π1 (π)]π ππ = βπ1 β« (π΅ β π)π βπ1 ππ ππ
ππ΅
π
= βπ1 {β [(π΅ β π).
π βπ1 ππ
π1 π
π0
]
π βπ1 ππ
+[
0
(π1 π )
2
95
π0
] }
0
ππΌ1
ππ΅
= βπ1 π [[
To find
1
π1
π
]β
π βπ1 ππ0
π1 π
]
(5.11)
ππΌ2
ππ΅
π΅
π΅
π0
π0
ππΌ2
= β β«(π΅ β π) [π2 (π)]π ππ = β β« π2 2π (π β π0 )π . π βπ2 π(πβπ0) . π βπ1 ππ0 ππ
ππ΅
π΅
2π
= βπ2 . π
βπ1 ππ0
π΅
π βπ2 π(πβπ0 )
π βπ2 π(πβπ0)
[(π β π0 ) .
] β [π(π β π0 )πβ1
]
2 2
βπ2 π
π
π
2
π
π
π
0
+ [π(π β 1)(π β π0 )
πβ2
0
π βπ2 π(πβπ0)
βπ2 3 π 3
π΅
]
ββ―
π0
ππΌ2
π βπ2 π(π΅βπ0)
= βπ2 2π . π βπ1 ππ0 {[β(π΅ β π0 )π .
]
ππ΅
π2 π
β [π(π΅ β π0 )πβ1
π βπ2 π(π΅βπ0)
π2 2 π 2
+ [π(π β 1)(π΅ β π0 )πβ2
]
π βπ2 π(π΅βπ0 )
βπ2 3 π 3
]ββ―}
(5.12)
β
ππΌ3
= π β« (π β π΅) [π2 (π)]π ππ
ππ΅
π΅
β
= βπ β« π2 2π (π β π0 )π . π βπ2 π(πβπ0 ) . π βπ1 ππ0 ππ
π΅
β
2π βπ1 ππ0
= βππ2 π
β
π βπ2 π(πβπ0 )
π βπ2 π(πβπ0)
πβ1
{[(π β π0 ) .
] β [π(π β π0 )
]
βπ2 π
π2 2 π 2
π΅
π΅
π
+ [π(π β 1)(π β π0 )
πβ2
π βπ2 π(πβπ0 )
96
βπ2 3 π 3
β
] ββ―}
π΅
ππΌ3
π βπ2 π(π΅βπ0 )
2π βπ1 ππ0
π
= βππ2 π
{[(π΅ β π0 ) .
]
ππ΅
π2 π
+ [π(π΅ β π0 )
πβ1
π βπ2 π(π΅βπ0)
π2 2 π 2
+ [π(π β 1)(π΅ β π0 )
πβ2
]
π βπ2 π(π΅βπ0 )
π2 3 π 3
]ββ―}
(5.13)
Substituting equation 5.11, 5.12 and 5.13 in equation 5.10, the following
result is obtained
ππΈ(πΆ)
1
π βπ1 ππ0
= βπ1 π [[ π ] β
]
ππ΅
π1
π1 π
2π
ββπ2 . π
βπ1 ππ0
{[(π΅ β π0 )π .
π βπ2 π(π΅βπ0 )
π βπ2 π(π΅βπ0)
πβ1
)
] + [π(π΅ β π0
]
π2 π
π2 2 π 2
β [π(π β 1)(π΅ β π0
βππ2 2π π βπ1 ππ0 {[(π΅ β π0 )π .
)πβ2
π βπ2 π(π΅βπ0 )
βπ2 3 π 3
]+β―}
π βπ2 π(π΅βπ0)
π βπ2 π(π΅βπ0 )
] + [π(π΅ β π₯0 )πβ1
]
π2 π
π2 2 π 2
+ [π(π β 1)(π΅ β π0 )πβ2
π βπ2 π(π΅βπ0 )
π2 3 π 3
]ββ―} = 0
(5.14)
Any value of π΅ which satisfies equation 5.14 is the optimal base stock
namely π΅Μ .
5.4.1 Numerical illustration
Considering the value π0 = 10, π1 = 1.7 π2 = 2, β = 10, π = 5
97
Table 5.1: Shortage variability for base stock
π
10
20
30
40
50
π΅
7.7
7.9
8.0
8.1
8.2
Figure 5.1: Base-stock with the shortage cost
5.4.2 Inference
In fig.5.1, as the value of the shortage cost βπβ increases,
a larger
inventory size is suggested as in the case of all other models discussed
earlier by many authors the above curve obtained in the figure is valid and is
similar to the one obtained earlier by the other authors.
5.4.3 Numerical illustration
Considering the value π0 = 10, π1 = 1.7 π2 = 2, π = 10, π = 5
98
Table 5.2: Holding variability for base stock
β
5
10
15
20
π΅
7.7
7.4
7.0
6.8
Figure 5.2: Base-stock with holding cost
5.4.4 Inference
In figure 5.2, as the inventory holding cost βββ increases then this
model suggests a smaller inventory size to be stocked, which is common to
all inventory models.
99
5.5 TRUNCATED EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION FOR PATIENT
CUSTOMER
Maintaining inventories is necessary in order to meet the demand of
stocks for a given period of time which may be either finite or infinite. An
optimal base-stock inventory policies using finite horizon is examined. In
Hanssman F [33] the basic model for the base-stock systems is discussed.
Sachithanantham S et.al [58] had discussed the model of base stock system
for patient customers with lead time distribution undergoing a parametric
change. Suresh Kumar R [72] showed how by applying the threshold, a
Shock model had a change of distribution after a change point. A modified
model had been attempted by Sachithanantham S et.al [58].
The base-stock for Patient customer model discussed in model 5.2 is
evaluated using the Truncated Exponential Distribution. Since among the
parametric models, the exponential distribution is perhaps the most widely
applied statistical approach in several fields. Hence, it is justified to apply the
truncated exponential distribution approach. In this model demand during the
period [0, t] is taken to be a random variable and truncated exponential
distribution satisfies the base-stock policy for the patient customer as a
continuous model. Whenever a customer orders for π units is received it is
supplied immediately and at the same time a replenishment order for Q units
is placed immediately. The replenishment takes place after a lead-time L.
From Hanssman F [33]
β
π΅
πΈ(πΆ) = β β«(π΅ β Q)π(π)ππ + π β«(Q β π΅) π(π)ππ
0
π΅
(5.15)
Assuming the PDF π(π) of the random variable π denoting the demand
undergoes a change of distribution in the sense that
π(π) = π1 (π) πππ β€ π0
= π2 (π) πππ > π0
(5.16)
100
Where π0 is called the change point. The following equation is obtained while
incorporating the change of distribution in equation 5.15,
π0
β
π΅
πΈ(πΆ) = β β« (π΅ β π)π1 (π)ππ + β β«(π΅ β π)π1 (π)ππ + π β«(π β π΅)π2 (π)ππ
0
π0
π΅
(5.17)
Equation 5.17 is differentiated by using the differential of integral method as
discussed in equation 3.7 of chapter 3 and is solved as follows
π0
π΅
ππΈ(πΆ)
π
=
{β β« (π΅ β π)π1 (π)ππ + β β«(π΅ β π)π1 (π)ππ
ππ΅
ππ΅
0
π0
β
+ π β«(π β π΅)π2 (π)ππ}
π΅
(5.18)
Now
π0
π΅
ππΈ(πΆ)
π
π
=β
β« (π΅ β π)π1 (π)ππ + β
β«(π΅ β π)π1 (π)ππ
ππ΅
ππ΅
ππ΅
0
π0
β
π
+π
β«(π β π΅)π2 (π)ππ
ππ΅
π΅
(5.19)
Hence
ππΈ(πΆ)
ππ΅
= [πΎ1 + πΎ2 + πΎ3 ] = 0
(5.20)
π0
π
πΎ1 = β
β« (π΅ β π)π1 (π)ππ
ππ΅
0
π΅
π
πΎ2 = β
β«(π΅ β π)π1 (π)ππ
ππ΅
π0
101
β
π
πΎ3 = π
β« (π β π΅)π2 (π)ππ
ππ΅
π΅
Deemer W.L et.al [18] derived the maximum likelihood estimator of
the parameter π in the truncated exponential distribution as
π(π, π) = {
π ππ₯π(βππ) (1 β π βππ0 ), 0 < π < π0
0
, ππ‘βπππ€ππ π
(5.21)
Applying the equation 5.21, the equation 5.20 becomes as follows,
π0
π
πΎ1 = β
β« (π΅ β π)π exp(βππ) (1 β π βππ0 )ππ
ππ΅
0
π0
π
πΎ1 =
(β(1 β π βππ0 ) β« (π΅ β π)π exp(βππ) ππ )
ππ΅
0
βπ΅(π βππ0 β 1) ππ0 π βππ0 + π βππ0 β 1
πΎ1 = βπ(1 β π βππ0 ) (
+
)
π
π2
(5.22)
π΅
π
πΎ2 = β
β«(π΅ β π)π exp(βππ) (1 β π βππ0 )ππ
ππ΅
π0
π΅
π
πΎ2 =
(β(1 β π βππ0 ) β«(π΅ β π)π exp(βππ) ππ )
ππ΅
π0
π΅(βπ βππ΅ +π βππ0 )
π
πΎ2 = β π(1 β π βππ0 )
+
ππ0 π βππ0 + π βππ0 β ππ΅π βππ΅ β π βππ΅
(
)
π2
(5.23)
102
β
π
πΎ3 = π
β« (π β π΅)0ππ = 0
ππ΅
π΅
(5.24)
Hence substituting the equation 5.22, 5.23 and 5.24 in equation 5.20, the
result obtained is
ππΈ(πΆ)
ππ΅
βπ
= π΅Μ = β(1 β π βππ0 ) [
βππ0 β1βπ βππ΅ +π βππ0
π
]
(5.25)
The model discussed above is formulated numerically. Therefore by
substituting the value for the truncation point, holding cost, base stock and
time variant which is denoted as follows π0 , β, π΅, π, the optimal base stock in
case of the patient customer is obtained. Also, this result is compared with
that of earlier models.
5.5.1 Numerical illustration
The following table 5.3 and figure 5.3 shows the numerical existence
of the model developed.
Table 5.3: Optimal base stock case with varying π0 , β, π΅, π
πΈπ
π
π©
π½
βπ β πβπ½π©
πβπβπ½πΈπ
Μ
π©
1
10
6
0.5
-1.049
0.393
-4.130
1.5
20
6.2
0.7
-1.013
0.650
-13.17
2
30
6.4
0.9
-1.003
0.834
-25.11
103
Figure 5.3: Base-stock curve for truncation point.
5.5.2 Inference
In figure 5.3, as the inventory holding cost π is monotonically
increasing, then this model demands for stocking of a limited or very fewer
inventory.
5.6 CONCLUSION
In this chapter, the demand during the period [0, t] is taken to be a
constant. In theoretical and applied work, the truncated exponential
distribution plays a crucial role due to its application to real life. The idea of
inventory decisions could be applied to production systems with several
machines and impatient customers. The model presented in this chapter can
be extended to system with both customer impatience and allocation of
hospital bed. This direction of research is taken into study in the next chapter
6.
104
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