TRENDS AND MELBOURNE
Data sources and references
September 2014
s
Acknowledgements
This research report was prepared by Nick Casey, Melbourne City Research and Melissah
Morrison, Health Projects
s
PEOPLE
Between 2008 and 2013 the
Melbourne Local Government
Area’s residential population
increased by almost 30%
(around 26,500 people) to an
estimated 116,447 people. In
the last year (2012-13) our
population grew 10% or 11,000
people, making Melbourne City
the largest and fastest growing
municipality in Victoria.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Regional Population Growth,
Australia, 2013 (cat. 3218.0)
http://www.abs.gov.au/
Australian and Victorian
households will get smaller,
and populations will continue to
grow and age.
Department of Planning and Community Development, Victoria in Future
2012, State Government of Victoria
http://www.dpcd.vic.gov.au/.
In the coming years, our
municipality’s population is
expected to grow fast at an
average annual rate of 5.8%
reaching a forecast population
of over 133,000 in 2016.
.id Consulting, 2013, City of Melbourne Population Forecasts, 2011-36,
City of Melbourne
http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au.
This municipality’s population is Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Quickstats Melbourne Local
not ageing and is not expected Government Area
to age.
http://www.abs.gov.au/census
.id Consulting, 2013, City of Melbourne Population Forecasts, 2011-36,
City of Melbourne
http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au.
s
Since 2001, the median age in
Melbourne municipality
remained 28 years.
Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Quickstats Melbourne Local
Government Area
http://www.abs.gov.au/census.
Average household sizes in
Australia have remained the
same (2.6 people per
household) over the past 10
years.
Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Quickstats Melbourne Local
Government Area
http://www.abs.gov.au/census.
In contrast, this municipality’s
average household size
increased to 2 persons per
household.
Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Quickstats Melbourne Local
Government Area
http://www.abs.gov.au/census.
Australia is experiencing a
reversal in fertility rate trends
with decreases becoming minor
increases (more babies).
.id Consulting, 2012, Move over baby-boomers – it’s not all about you!
September 2012 presentation
http://library.constantcontact.com/download/get/file/1104301295188298/Move+over+babyboomers+QLD+2012.pdf
Young people and young adults
(12 to 35 years of age)
comprise the largest proportion
of residential population at over
60% and this is forecast to
maintain the same proportion in
2016.
Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Melbourne Local Government
Area Basic Community Profile 2011
http://www.abs.gov.au/census
.id Consulting, 2013, City of Melbourne Population Forecasts, 2011-36,
City of Melbourne
http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au.
The municipality is becoming
more multicultural since 2006,
when 48.5% of the population
was born overseas (53.5% by
2011) and almost 39% spoke a
language other than English
(43% by 2011).
The municipality is more
multicultural than the rest of
Australia. In the rest of
Australia, 26% of the
population was born overseas
and 19% speak a language
other than English at home.
City Research Branch, 2008, City of Melbourne Census Multicultural
Profile, dataset, City of Melbourne
In Melbourne municipality,
more residents were born
overseas than in Australia.
Victoria gained more people
from interstate migration than
any other state or territory
during the year ending 30
September 2013. This is the
highest net interstate migration
gain for the state in over 30
years and Victoria has now
overtaken Queensland and
Western Australia in net
interstate migration.
s
Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Melbourne Local Government
Area Basic Community Profile 2011
And
Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Australia Basic Community Profile
2011
http://www.abs.gov.au/census.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) - Australian Demographic Statistics
Sep 2013 MEDIA RELEASE 27 March 2014 (Cat no. 3101.0), online, (accessed 1 April 2014)
http://www.abs.gov.au/
The changing the interstate
migration trend is being driven
by employment options rather
than the traditional driver which
is lifestyle. Australians will still
migrate to Queensland and
Western Australia for lifestyle
reasons, however, there is a
perception that Melbourne has
more job opportunities.
Laura Chalmers, 2014, Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows
Victoria has overtaken Queensland as most attractive place for
Australians to move to, The Australian, 27 March 2014 , on-line,
(accessed 1 April 2014)
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/
Our total resident population is
still growing. The implications
are that the cohort of older
.id Consulting, 2013, City of Melbourne Population Forecasts, 2011-36,
City of Melbourne
persons will remain around the http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au.
same size proportionally, at
around 10% of the total
population by 2016, but their
actual numbers are expected to
increase from over 9,000 in
2011 to more than 11,500 in
2016. City of Melbourne will
have to consider how to
balance its approach to this
group with other demographic
groups in the municipality.
Similarly, while the number of
children of primary and
secondary school ages will
increase
HOUSING
s
International research suggests
metropolitan Melbourne house
prices increased faster than
income levels. Australian cities
are among the most
unaffordable housing markets
in the world.
Cox and Pavletich, 2012, 8th Annual Demographia International Housing
Affordability Survey: 2012,Performance Urban Planning
www.demographia.com/.
Between 2014 and 2016 new
supply is projected to average
6600 dwellings per year, tripling
the ten year average of 2100
dwellings per year.
City Research Branch, 2013, Development Activity Monitor November
2013, City of Melbourne.
Over the period 2012—14
Melbourne municipality will
account for around 35% of
overall residential
Urban renewal development
activity in Greater Melbourne.
Over 2012-14, Melbourne
municipality will be the largest
growing residential urban
renewal area in Greater
Melbourne.
Property Council of Australia, 2012, Making the Numbers Stack Up – A Study
More than 10% of new homes
approved in Victoria in the past
year (2010/11) will be built in
the City of Melbourne.
Australia Bureau of Statistics, 2012, Building Approvals, Australia (cat.
no. 8731.0).
The proportion of flats and
apartments increased from
78% in 2002 to 83% of all
housing in 2010.
Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring Report (Draft)
City of Melbourne
into Major Residential Urban Renewal in Melbourne, Melbourne
The proportion of renters and
Indicator from:
mortgagees paying less than
City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring Report (Draft)
30% of their income on housing City of Melbourne
in this municipality declined
between 2001 and 2011, from
almost 61% to about 53.5%.
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2006
6.5% of home purchasers and
http://www.abs.gov.au/census
29.5% of renters experience
housing stress paying 30% or
more of their household income
on rent or mortgages.
7% of private occupied
Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Melbourne Local Government
dwellings in the municipality are Area Basic Community Profile 2011
social housing.
http://www.abs.gov.au/census.
City of Melbourne’s
StreetCount shows a slight
decline in numbers of people
sleeping rough from 112 in
2008 to 101 in 2012.
In November 2013 there were
51 developments under
construction, expected to yield
around 11,732 residential
dwellings by the end of 2016.
Eighty-five proposed
developments with a total of
15,515 dwellings have town
planning approval and could be
expected to begin construction
within two years. A further 63
proposed developments
yielding 17,580 dwellings could
be expected to begin
construction within three to five
years (subject to town planning
approval).
Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring Report (Draft)
City of Melbourne
City of Melbourne 2013, Development Activity Monitor November 2013,
Melbourne
Between 2014 and 2016 new
supply is projected to average
6600 dwellings per year, tripling
the ten year average of 2100
dwellings per year.
Melbourne is the only
Graham Wolfe, 2011, The Outlook for Residential Building, Housing
municipality in Australia that is Industry Association, September 2011.
forecast by the Housing
Industry Association to supply
sufficient housing to meet
forecast demand from residents
s
by 2020.
Approximately 50% of new
dwellings have one bedroom
and dwelling size is shrinking
with 40% of new dwellings
having less than 50m2 of floor
space. Around 42% of new
dwelling construction is in
higher density of 20 levels or
more above ground. Finally,
more than 90% of new
dwellings are apartments.
City Research Branch, 2013, Dwelling Stock and Diversity in the City of
Melbourne, Melbourne
Dwellings with a valuation less
than $300,000 has dropped
from 43% in 2006 to 21% in
2012
State Government housing in
the municipality has decreased
by 4% in the past six years.
Almost 70% of dwellings in the
municipality are not held by
owner occupiers, likely
because dwelling growth is
increasingly driven by overseas
investors purchasing in the
Australian market.
Some analysts and social
researchers consider risks in
the Melbourne housing market,
including:
City Research Branch, 2013, Dwelling Stock and Diversity in the City of
Melbourne, Melbourne
•A glut in the municipality’s
market that could extend to the
end of the decade.
•Financial losses on sale of
dwellings. RP Data’s Pain and
Gain report, showed 15.5% of
all sales in Melbourne
municipality in the final three
months of 2013 were for below
the initial purchase price,
compared to 6% in metro
Melbourne. The average loss
was $33,000.
•Possible loss of liveability and
the creative class vision for the
centre of the city as “a place of
s
City Research Branch, 2013, Dwelling Stock and Diversity in the City of
Melbourne, Melbourne
City Research Branch, 2013, Dwelling Stock and Diversity in the City of
Melbourne, Melbourne
work, recreation and residence
in almost equal measure”.
The Victorian Government is
reviewing the future of social
housing in Victoria, which could
include new social housing
funding and development
models and changes to rent
levels and terms of social
housing leases. The intent is to
make social housing financially
sustainable but could result in
higher rents, less security of
tenure and low income
households being forced to
leave the inner city or live in a
cycle of homelessness, poverty
and transitional housing.
In the case of women and
children there are clear links
between homelessness and
family violence.
Department Of Human Services, 2012, Housing Framework – Social
Housing Options, April 2012 Stat Government of Victoria
http://www.dhs.vic.gov.au.
Spinney and Brady, 2011, Homelessness prevention for women and
children who have experienced domestic and family violence: innovations
in policy and practice, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute,
Swinburne–Monash Research Centre
http://www.ahuri.edu.au/publications/download/50602_pp
ENVIRONMENT
Australians are estimated to
Australian Conservation Foundation, 2010, Consumption Atlas, Australian
have the fourth highest
Conservation Foundation
ecological footprint in the world. http://202.60.88.196/consumptionatlas/.
Residential greenhouse
emissions in Melbourne
municipality were estimated at
6.07 tonnes CO2-e per capita
in 2012-13.
Non-resident emissions
declined were estimated at
14.24 tonnes CO2-e per
worker, also in 2012-13.
Total residential electricity
consumption increased from an
estimated 223.6 million kWh in
2011-12 to 249.8 million kWh in
2012-13.
Non-resident electricity
consumption also increased
s
Indicators from:
Sustainability Branch, 2014, CARBON DISCLOSURE PROJECT Municipal Inventory (Summary), City of Melbourne
from in 3.2b kWh in 2011-12 to
3.8b kWh in 2012-13.
Data for greenhouse emissions
show total emissions in the
municipality of 6,442,240
tCO2e in 2012–13 which
includes emissions from
electricity, gas, landfill waste,
private vehicles and public
transport. This is estimated as
6.07 tCO2e per resident and
14.24 tCO2e per worker.
Indicators from:
Sustainability Branch, 2014, CARBON DISCLOSURE PROJECT Municipal Inventory (Summary), City of Melbourne
Daily water consumption per
Indicator from:
resident in the area declined on City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, City of
average by 4.2% per annum
Melbourne
from 141 litres in 2008-09 to
119 litres in 2012-13
Workers’ daily water
consumption declined by an
average of approximately 1.4%
per annum from 108 litres in
2008-9 to 102 litres in 2012-13.
Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, City of
Melbourne
Garbage collected per
household per year in the
municipality increased 2% per
annum between 2006 and
2012.
Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, City of
Melbourne
Recycling per household per
year in the area increased 3%
per annum from 2006 to 2012.
Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, City of
Melbourne
In 2012, 32% of this
municipality’s residents and
29% of businesses have done
something (saving water or
installing more efficient air
conditioning) to prepare for
extreme weather events.
Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, City of
Melbourne
Climate change may have
increasing public health
impacts such … mental health
(depression and suicide).
Climate Institute, 2011, A Climate of Suffering: The Real Cost of Living
with Inaction on Climate Change, Climate Institute
GENERAL
ICLEI Local Governments following the Rio + 20 summit on the role of
cities in dealing with global environmental issues:
http://local2012.iclei.org/fileadmin/files/ICLEI_at_Rio_20.pdf.
LIFESTYLES
The way people are living their
lives is changing. People are
s
World Federation for Mental Health
working more, connecting with
others via social media, sitting
for long hours in their car or at
their desks and eating more
fast foods. These unhealthy
behaviours are resulting in
physical and mental health
impacts with rising rates of
obesity and chronic illnesses
such as heart disease, type 2
diabetes, cancer and mental
health issues such as anxiety
and depression.
In addition, the majority of the
world’s population is living in
urban environments. With rapid
development and population
growth, inner city living and
lifestyles are changing and this
is likely to have significant
health and wellbeing impacts.
94.5% of residents do not eat
enough vegetables, 46% do not
eat enough fruit, similar to state
averages.
34% male residents and 14%
of female residents are
overweight, similar to state
averages.
Male residents have
significantly higher rates of
cancer (11%), and women
have significantly higher rates
of heart disease (8.6%) than
the state average (6.1% and
5.2% respectively).
Male residents consume more
alcohol at risky levels (41%)
than the state average (33.3%).
The area has the proportion of
alcohol and drug-related
ambulance attendances in
Metro Melbourne.
Melbourne municipality has the
highest rates of chlamydia
notifications in Victoria.
Crime in the municipality
increased 14% from 2010 to
2013 (from 26,712 to 30,537
s
Mental Health And Chronic Physical Illnesses, The Need For Continued
And Integrated Care, 2010
http://www.wfmh.org/2010DOCS/WMHDAY2010.pdf.
United Nations, 2007 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects
Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health Survey 2008,
State Government of Victoria.
http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/survey/vphs.htm
Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health Survey 2008,
State Government of Victoria.
http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/survey/vphs.htm
Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health Survey 2008,
State Government of Victoria.
http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/survey/vphs.htm
Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health Survey 2008,
State Government of Victoria.
http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/survey/vphs.htm
Turning Point (2010). Trends in Alcohol and Drug Related Ambulance
Attendances in Melbourne 2009-10.
Victorian Notifiable Infectious Diseases Surveillance database, Department of
Health (2010)
http://www.health.vic.gov.au/ideas/surveillance
Victoria Police, 2014,Crime Statistics: Crime Statistics By Local Government
Area (LGA) 2011/12 and 2012/13 (online), accessed 13 February 2014,
http://www.police.vic.gov.au/content.asp?Document_ID=782
recorded offences per 1000).
There has been an increase in
the number of family violence
incidences reported to Victoria
Police
84.1% of residents mostly sit or
stand at work all day,
significantly more than the state
average (64.2%).
12.5% of residents report high
to very high levels of anxiety
and depression and 13% have
sought professional help for a
mental health problem, higher
than the state average of
11.4%.
The number of noise
complaints received by City of
Melbourne increased annually
from 10.5 per 1000 in 2008 to
13.1 per 1000 in 2012.
The average self-reported level
of wellbeing reported by
residents of the municipality
was 75.4 in 2012 and 76.5 in
2013.
In 2012 more than 57% of
people living in Melbourne
municipality reported their
health was either 'excellent' or
'very good'and in 2013, around
65% of people living in the
municipality reported their
health was either 'excellent' or
'very good'.
Residents reported satisfaction
with feeling a part of the
community in the municipality
was 67.5 in 2012 and 68.2 in
2013.
In 2012 almost 43% of
residents in Melbourne
municipality reported that they
helped out as a volunteer and
by 2013 it was over 49%.
The major safety concerns over
the next five years included
public drunkenness (43%),
assault/physical violence
(25.6%), traffic flow (17.4%),
s
Victoria Police, 2014,Crime Statistics: Family Incident Reports (online),
accessed 13 February 2014,
http://www.police.vic.gov.au/content.asp?Document_ID=782
Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health Survey 2008,
State Government of Victoria.
http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/survey/vphs.htm
Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health Survey 2008,
State Government of Victoria.
http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/survey/vphs.htm
City of Melbourne, 2014, Municipal Public Health and Wellbeing
Evaluation, Melbourne.
Indicator:
City of Melbourne, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, Melbourne
Indicator:
City of Melbourne, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, Melbourne
Indicator:
City of Melbourne, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, Melbourne
Indicator:
City of Melbourne, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, Melbourne
City of Melbourne, Perceptions of Safety Survey 2009
drug use (15.7%) and
managing growth/increased
population (13.8%).
SOCIAL INEQUALITIES
The ACOSS Poverty in
Australia report found nearly
2,265,000 people in 2010
(12.8% of all people) were
living below the poverty line
and 600,000 or 17.3% of them
were children. The measure of
poverty was 50% of median
income in Australia. Poverty
among single parent families
has increased by 15% since
2001.
Melbourne has Victoria’s
socially and economically most
advantaged area and some of
Victoria’s most disadvantaged
areas on the Australian Bureau
of Statistics Socio-Economic
Indexes for Areas (SEIFA).
People who reside in public
housing in areas of Carlton,
North Melbourne and
Kensington are identified as the
most disadvantaged in the
municipality.
More than a third of the
population (36%) are low
income earners, earning less
than $399 per week.
In 2012 around 4.5% of adults
in the municipality reported
they had run out of food in the
past 12 months and could not
afford to buy more and in 2013
less than 3% had run out of
food and been unable to afford
more.
22% of residents in this
municipality report they don’t
always have the quality or
variety of food they want
because some foods are too
expensive.
Low income families with either
two or one parents would need
to spend 43 to 46% of their
s
Australian Council of Social Service, 2012, Poverty in Australian 2012,
Sydney, on-line, (accessed 19 March 2013),
http://www.acoss.org.au/policy/child_poverty/
Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006, Census Socio-Economic Indexes
for Areas, Melbourne Local Government Area, 2006.
http://www.abs.gov.au/
Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006, Census Socio-Economic Indexes
for Areas, Melbourne Local Government Area, 2006.
http://www.abs.gov.au/
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2011
http://www.abs.gov.au/census
Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, City of
Melbourne
Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health Survey 2008,
State Government of Victoria.
http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/survey/vphs.htm
Health Services Branch, 2010, Food Security Profile 2012, City of
Melbourne
incomes respectively, to
maintain a healthy diet, which
is above the recommended
30% of income for food.
40% of Australians believed
that 'Inflation/Cost of Living'
was one of the top three issues
facing the nation; making it the
number one issue for June
quarter 2012.
the proportion of Melbourne
Local Government Area’s
households earning more than
$2,500 per week is higher
compared to Greater
Melbourne
Nathan R, 2012, The Ipsos Social Research Institute Issues Monitor, May
to July 2012, Ipsos Australia
http://ipsos.com.au/
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Basic
Community Profile, Melbourne Local Government Area
and
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Basic
Community Profile, Greater Melbourne
and
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2006, Basic
Community Profile, Melbourne Local Government Area
http://www.abs.gov.au/census
s
the Melbourne municipality is
ranked 13th most socioeconomic advantaged
municipality in metropolitan
Melbourne
The proportion of residents with
a profound or severe disability
was 1.6% in 2006 and 2% of
the municipality’s population in
2011. More than 1,800
residents (up by 600 people
since 2006) in this municipality
live with a profound or severe
disability and are considered as
needing help or assistance
areas of self-care, mobility and
communication, because of a
disability, long term health
condition lasting six months or
more or old age. On a daily
basis, there are likely to be
even more people with
disabilities in the municipality
and all their needs must be
considered.
41% households have no car.
39.9% say this is due to rising
petrol prices.
Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006, Census Socio-Economic Indexes
for Areas, Melbourne Local Government Area, 2006.
http://www.abs.gov.au/
While the Melbourne
municipality is ranked 13th
Urban Health Profile 2012
Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2012, Census Melbourne Local
Government Area Basic Community Profile 2011
http://www.abs.gov.au/census.
Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2012,, 2901.0 - Census Dictionary, 2011
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Lookup/2901.0Chapter702011
Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2012, Census Melbourne Local
Government Area Basic Community Profile 2011
http://www.abs.gov.au/census.
most socio-economic
advantaged municipality in
metro Melbourne, there are
pockets of socio-economic
disadvantage in North
Melbourne, Carlton and
Kensington. These areas are
primarily public housing estate
areas and they have high
proportions of vulnerable
population groups including:
•Low income earners (between
$1 and $399 per week)
•Unemployed
•Families with children under 0
to 12 years, particularly single
parent households
•People with low English
proficiency
•Students
•Older adults, particularly those
who have a disability, living
alone in public housing
•People who are severely or
profoundly disabled who need
assistance with core activities.
City of Melbourne, 2013, Somali Families in Melbourne, a presentation to Family
Marginalised community
Services Staff, Melbourne
groups
Several important indicators of
disadvantage suggest the
population from Horn of Afica,
in particular the Somali
community, may be at risk of
marginalisation". Overall,
compared to the rest of the
municipality’s population, they
are significantly more likely to:
1.
live in single parent
families
2.
live in public housing
3.
achieve poorer
educational outcomes
4.
experience poorer
employment outcomes; and
5.
earn lower incomes.
Outcomes for the Horn of Africa
community are not significantly
improving over time. Also,
analysis of census data
showed that in 2011 more than
s
66% of Somali’s were living at
the same address where they
lived five years ago, compared
to less than 30% of the rest of
the population, which suggests
they’re remaining in public
housing in this municipality.
The Horn of Africa population
numbers around 1800 people
including approximately 500
children and youths.
Medium efforts directed at
improving some of the above
mentioned outcomes for the
Horn of Africa community may
have a significant impact of
inequality and overall wellbeing
of the municipality’s whole
community
There is evidence people of
lower socio-economic status
have worse health than those
in more advantaged areas.
Evidence shows they rate their
health more negatively, have
higher rates of some chronic
illnesses, lead less healthy
lifestyles and are less likely to
get health checks. In addition, a
lack of economic resources
limits people’s ability to access
basic essentials such as food,
housing, transport and health
care. It can also limit their
ability to participate in their
community leading to higher
levels of anxiety, social
isolation and marginalisation.
While Melbourne municipality
has an overall unemployment
rate of 5%, youth
unemployment in the area is
higher. Analysis by the
Brotherhood of St Laurence
shows the Melbourne area has
a youth unemployment rate of
over 13%. Consequences of
unemployment and a lack of
job opportunities for young
people can include: relatively
s
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Social Trends 1999 – Health Status:
Health and Socioeconomic Disadvantage of Area
Brotherhood of St. Laurence, 2014, Australian Youth Unemployment 2014:
Snapshot, Melbourne, Online, [accessed 24 March, 2014]
http://www.bsl.org.au/pdfs/MyChanceOurFuture_AppendixA_maps_Feb2014.pdf
lower quality of life and
standards of living; lack of
skills; and potential welfare
dependency.
ECONOMY
Productivity growth in Australia
appears to have slowed.
Dolman and Gruen, 2012, Productivity and Structural Change, 41st
Australian Conference of Economists, 8 - 12 July 2012, Macroeconomic
Group
http://www.treasury.gov.au.
Post Global Financial Crisis
conditions, including the
European debt crisis are
changing the way people
spend.
Bill Evans, 2012, Consumer Sentiment fails to get any traction, 15 August
2012, Westpac,
http://www.westpac.com.au/docs/pdf/aw/economicsresearch/er20120815BullConsumerSentiment.pdf.
The Australian dollar is still
relatively strong.
Reserve Bank of Australia, Exchange Rates (online)
http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/exchange-rates.html (19 Sep
2012).
Australian consumer
confidence has been below its
long run average for six
months.
Bill Evans, 2012, Consumer Sentiment fails to get any traction, 15 August
2012, Westpac,
http://www.westpac.com.au/docs/pdf/aw/economicsresearch/er20120815BullConsumerSentiment.pdf.
Concerns developing nations
demand for resources and the
mining boom may be
unsustainable.
Matthew Hassan, 2012, Economic Outlook August 2012, Westpac.
We also have increased
International visitor arrivals to
Australia this year which is
positive for Australia’s tourism
sector.
Tourism Australia, 2012, International Visitors Survey & National Visitors
Survey, 2012.
Businesses and employment in
the municipality each grew 4%
per annum 2002 to 2010.
Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2014, Future Melbourne Monitoring, City of
Melbourne
Indicator from:
There was a 13% increase in
retail establishments from 2006
to 2012
s
City Research Branch, 20122014, Future Melbourne Monitoring , Report
(Draft) City of Melbourne
International visitors to the area
grew 7% per annum between
2008-09 and 2012-13 to 1.24
million
Tourism Australia, 2013, International Visitors Survey & National Visitors
Survey, 2013.
Visitors to Melbourne
Metropolitan spent
Tourism Australia, 2013, International Visitors Survey & National Visitors
Survey, 2013.
approximately $10.7b in 2011.
s
Median weekly household
income in this municipality
increased from $1,070 in 2006
to $1,352 in 2011.
Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Melbourne Local Government
Area Basic Community Profile 2011
http://www.abs.gov.au/census.
Unemployment among
residents is comparatively low
but trending up.
City of Melbourne, 2013, Economic Profile, Melbourne (online),
[Accessed 13 February, 2014]
http://melbourne.geografia.com.au/
In the last decade theBetween
2007 and 2012, the
municipality’s Gross Regional
Local Product (the size of the
municipality’s economy) grew
35% to $56.886.7b in 2011.
.id Consulting, 2013, City of Melbourne Economic Profile, City of
Melbourne
http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au.
The annual product of a worker
is $167,660 in 2012.
.id Consulting, 2013, City of Melbourne Economic Profile, City of
Melbourne
http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au.
Business numbers and the
workforce in the area grew by
6.5% and 8.4% respectively
between 2008 and 2012 and
the workforce is forecast to
continue to grow, but more
slowly another 2% per annum
to 510,000 workers by 2016.
The municipality’s workforce is
forecast to continue to grow,
but more slowly, by 2% per
annum to 510,000 workers in
2016. Between 1996 and 2011,
employment in Greater
Melbourne increased by around
560,000 jobs and our
municipality contributed almost
30% of that growth (160,000
jobs). In 20 years, Greater
Melbourne will add over
900,000 jobs, of which one
quarter will be within Melbourne
Local Government Area.
In 2012 the Car Manufacturing
industry employed around 2000
people which only 0.5 per cent
of employment in the
municipality. The economic
contribution of the ‘Transport
Equipment Manufacturing’
City Research Branch, 2012, Employment Forecasts 2011, City of
Melbourne
City of Melbourne, 2014, Employment Forecasting 2012 – 2031,
Melbourne
.id Consulting, 2010, City of Melbourne Economic Profile, City of
Melbourne
http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au.
sector was $389 million for
2012 and the car
manufacturing industry
comprises around 70% of this
sector. Therefore, it is
reasonable to assume that the
Car Manufacturing industry has
a value of between $250 to
$300 million to the City of
Melbourne economy, or to
0.3%.
Despite concerns about
productivity decline, nationally,
the value of worker productivity
in the municipality has
increased 27% since 1999.
Although productivity has
slowed since 2006 and was
negative in 2009 -10, it
increased again in 2011
The biggest productivity and
wage pressures have been
identified in mining and utilities
industries, nationally, but these
comprise only 2.5% of the local
workforce.
.id Consulting, 2010, City of Melbourne Economic Profile, City of
Melbourne
http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au.
Phil Ruthven Where’s the Productivity Problem? August 2012, IBISWorld
http://www.ibisworld.com.au
City Research Branch, Census of Land Use and Employment 2010, City
of Melbourne
Public transport facilitates
Strategic Planning Branch, 2012, Transport Strategy, City of Melbourne
agglomeration benefits in cities.
Ability to connect with other
businesses by walking or using
efficient public transport
contributes to central
Melbourne’s high Effective Job
Density (EJD).
s
Congestion also has a
significant impact on the
economy with a cost to the city
of $3 billion a year. Reducing
congestion by prioritizing more
space efficient transport has
been identified as a way to
improve productivity.
Strategic Planning Branch, 2012, Transport Strategy, City of Melbourne
Over the last 5 years the retail
sector has performed well, and
turnover is expected to grow.
Business and International Branch, 2012, Six Year Retail Report Card
2012, City of Melbourne.
Online retail is expected to give
consumers more power and
take more market share from
BIS Shrapnel Business Research and Forecasting, 2012, Is this the end
of the golden age for retailing? BIS Shrapnel, (online) 11 July 2012
http://www.bis.com.au.
‘traditional’ retailing. This could
impact on retailer profit margins
and returns to retail property,
prompting some investors to
consider investing in other
sections of the property market.
While international visitor
Tourism Australia, International Visitors Survey & National Visitors
numbers increased, domestic
Survey, 2012.
visitor numbers fell below 200809 levels.
s
Nationally, the mining
investment boom is expected to
peter out after peaking in 2014,
though it will still underpin
activity for the next few years.
Meanwhile broadening
investment beyond mining may
was expected increasingly to
drive growth, softening the
impact on the economy.
Industries likely to benefit from
the growth include finance,
business services and health
services –large employers in
the municipality. The high dollar
may have adversely impacted
Australia’s transition back from
mining and public investmentled growth last decade to
balanced growth. A structural
shift back towards broad based
growth means investment and
re-deploying resources to the
non-mining sector.
Unfortunately, business
investment outside the
resources sector has remained
weak since the GFC. Recovery
is expected to be two years
away. Recovery, once it comes
through will significantly boost
growth Industries such as
finance, business services and
health services–large which
have a large presence in the
municipality.
BIS Shrapnel Business Research and Forecasting, 2014,
Economy in transition through mid-decade …as and when the mining
investment boom peters out. BIS Shrapnel, (online) 25 February 2014
http://www.bis.com.au.
Opportunities for future growth
[Section]
Deloitte Access Economics, 2014, Positioning for prosperity? Catching
the next wave, online, [accessed 24 March, 2014]
http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_AU/au/newsresearch/luckycountry/prosperity-next-wave/index.htm
KNOWLEDGE
s
While the public research
sector, nationally, experienced
poorer financial returns than
before the Global Financial
Crisis, it has managed
increased invention disclosures
and patent filing and interest in
future commercialisation.
Australian Research Council Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation and National Health and Medical Research
Council, 2011, The National Survey of Research Commercialisation,
2008-09, Department of Industry, Innovation, Science, Research and
Tertiary Education
http://www.innovation.gov.au.
88% of Melbourne
municipality’s households have
internet access and 90% of
them use broadband, higher
than the Australian average at
77% of households.
Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Melbourne Local Government
Area Basic Community Profile 2011
http://www.abs.gov.au/census.
Patents granted to companies
or corporation in Melbourne
municipality increased from 90
per 100,000 residents in 2010
to 103 per 100,000 residents in
2013.
Intellectual Property Australia, 2014, Grants for Innovation and Standard
Patents, Melbourne Local Government Area, 2010-13, unpublished data
42.5% of the municipality’s
population is attending an
educational institution, higher
than the Australian average at
30%.
Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Melbourne Local Government
Area Basic Community Profile 2011
http://www.abs.gov.au/census.
In 2011, household spending in
Australia on new age services
passed that on retail goods for
the first time in history.
Phil Ruthven, 2012, Australia’s Changing Demographics & Lifestyles
Implications for, and responses by, businesses, CEDA Conference 11
May 2012.
On any one day in Melbourne
Local Government Area there
are more than 30,000
international students studying
at a variety of educational
institutions with approximately
50 per cent residing in the
municipality.
City Research Branch, 2014, City of Melbourne Student Profile (Draft),
City of Melbourne
Postgraduate enrolments in
higher education in Metro
Melbourne grew 6% per annum
from 2007 to reach 60,850 in
2009.
Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring Report (Draft),
City of Melbourne
From 2009 to 2011
approximately 50% of people
Indicator from:
City Research Branch, Future Melbourne Monitoring , City of Melbourne
employed in the municipality
work in highly skilled
occupations.
Metro Melbourne is home to
50% of the top 20 biotech
companies listed on the
Australian Stock Exchange.
Enterprise Melbourne (on-line) Biotechnology sector overview (25
September 2012), City of Melbourne
htp://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/enterprisemelbourne/industries/
biotechnology/Pages/SectorOverview.aspx
Researcher’s employed at
universities in Metro Melbourne
grew 3% per annum in five
years, to 20,000 in 2010.
Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring Report (Draft),
City of Melbourne
The anticipated establishment
of an ASEAN Economic
Community (AEC) by 2015.
ASEAN, Cebu Declaration on the Acceleration of the Establishment of an
ASEAN Community by 2015, (2009) ASEAN Secretariat (20 September
2012)
http://www.aseansec.org/19260.htm.
Research and development
spending is strongly positively
related to patent grants,
meaning that research efforts
enable individuals and firms to
generate creative outputs.
Hatfield, et al (2010) Journal of Product Innovation Management Vol. 27,
Longitudinal study of the impacts of R&D, patents and product
innovations on firm performance, pg 725-740, Product Development and
Management Association
http://www.management.pamplin.vt.edu/directory/Articles/Hatfield1.pdf
INFRASTRUCTURE
The use of sustainable
transport modes to get to and
around the municipality
increased from 58% in 2007 to
62% in 2009 but are forecast to
account for 80 per cent of trips
in 2030 (about 2,671,376 trips).
Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring Report (Draft),
City of Melbourne and
City Research Branch, City of Melbourne City User Estimates and
Forecasts, City of Melbourne, 2010.
Department of Transport, Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel and
Activity http://www.transport.vic.gov.au/.
Strategic Planning Branch, 2012, Transport Strategy, City of Melbourne
s
41% of households do not own
a car.
City Research Branch, Census 2001-06 Key Changes, City of Melbourne
31.9% walk or cycle for
transport.
Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health Survey 2008,
State Government of Victoria.
http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/survey/vphs.htm
The municipality’s daily
population including workers
and visitors is over 887,000
people, forecast to reach
almost 930,000 by 2016 and
one million by 2020.
Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2013, City of Melbourne Daily Population
Estimates and Forecasts, Melbourne.
66% of trips within the
municipality are made by
Strategic Planning Branch, 2012, Transport Strategy, City of Melbourne
walking.
There are an estimated 3,872
total delivery vehicles per day
entering the CBD.
Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring Report (Draft),
City of Melbourne City
Over 90% of freight through the Department of Planning and Community Development, Melbourne's
Port of Melbourne is
freight flow and distribution
transported by road.
http://www.dpcd.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/31199/
Melbournes_freight_flow_and_distribution.pdf
The carriage of goods through
the Port of Melbourne is
expected to quadruple to eight
million TEU (Twenty-foot
Equivalent Units) per annum by
2035.
Strategic Planning Branch, 2012, Transport Strategy, City of Melbourne
Over half of all workers,
students and visitors access
the internet while they’re in
Central Melbourne.
Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring Report (Draft),
City of MelbourneCity
A national infrastructure
NBNCo, 2012, NBNCo Rollout map, (25 September, 2012)
project, the National Broadband http://www.nbnco.com.au/rollout/rollout-map.html.
Network (NBN), is under
construction which will increase
the accessibility of broadband
internet and provide higher
internet speeds. Service is
available in Docklands and the
north of Parkville. It is under
construction in parts of
Southbank and construction,
which will continue to involve
City of Melbourne, is due to
start in Carlton in the next year.
Increases in the numbers of
Department of Planning and Community Development, Melbourne's
vehicles used for freight
freight flow and distribution
transport over the next 15
http://www.dpcd.vic.gov.au.
years are expected. The
increased distances travelled
by freight vehicles are expected
to be dispersed across
Melbourne, potentially
impacting the road network.
CITY GOVERNANCE
Rising community
Municipal Association of Victoria, 2012 Future of LG Summit, Municipal
expectations/challenges/issues. Association of Victoria
Fewer dollars: State/Federal
Municipal Association of Victoria, 2012 Future of LG Summit, Municipal
deficits plus zero dollar rate rise Association of Victoria
from City of Melbourne in
s
2012/13.
s
Citizens want more control and
influence as social media
platforms empower them to
have more of a voice.
Municipal Association of Victoria, 2012 Future of LG Summit, Municipal
Association of Victoria
Digital government will change
the business model.
Municipal Association of Victoria, 2012 Future of LG Summit, Municipal
Association of Victoria
There is a need to improve
performance reporting.
Municipal Association of Victoria, 2012 Future of LG Summit, Municipal
Association of Victoria
A large percentage of the local
government workforce will
retire in the next 10 years,
taking knowledge.
Municipal Association of Victoria, 2012 Future of LG Summit, Municipal
Association of Victoria
City of Melbourne currently has
almost 20 advisory boards.
City of Melbourne Website, (2014), Key advisory committees, bodies and
boards, (13 March 2014)
http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/
City of Melbourne currently has
14 residents groups.
City of Melbourne Website, (2014), Contact resident groups, (13 March
2014)
http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/
12 million Australian’s visited
Facebook in August 2013.
9 million Australians log on to
Facebook every day, or almost
39% of the total Australian
population.
Cowling. D, 2013, Social Media Statistics Australia – August 2013, (online) Social Media News.com (13 March 2014)
http://www.socialmedianews.com.au/social-media-statistics-australiaaugust-2013/.
Globally, there are changes in
the way people measure
progress as a society.
Municipal Association of Victoria, 2012 Future of LG Summit, Municipal
Association of Victoria
41% of residents of the
municipality feel they have a
say on important issues.
Department of Planning & Community Development, 2008, Indicators of
community Strength, Department of Planning & Community Development
cited on Community Indicators Victoria.
In 2012, over 56% and in 2013
almost 62% of residents
surveyed in Melbourne Local
Government Area had
participated in citizen
engagement activities in the
previous 12 months.
Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Social Survey 2013.
The Valuer General has
identified performance
reporting in Local Government
has limited relevance for
ratepayers, lacks information
about quality of Council
services, lacks information on
outcomes being achieved, how
Municipal Association of Victoria, 2012, Council Sustainability. How Are
We Performing?. Municipal Association of Victoria
Council strategic objectives are
being achieved, focussed on
inputs and operating activities,
and shortcomings impair
accountability for performance.
The Victorian Government has
released the final report, and
the Government's response to
the Inquiry into Streamlining
Local Government Regulation.
s
Victorian Competition and Efficiency Commission, 2010, Local
Government for a Better Victoria: An Inquiry into Streamlining Local
Government Regulation, final report,
August. http://www.vcec.vic.gov.au.