CHOICES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
A Game on pursuing protection under peculiar probabilities
by Pablo Suarez & Miquel Muñoz
GROUND RULES
1. We will play a few sets of rounds
(Increasing complexity)
2. Game = simplified representation of reality
(No questioning of game rules)
3. Decisions are individual
(But consultation with team is encouraged)
4. You win or lose “performance points”
(Points can’t be traded within team at first)
5. Cheating is wrong
(But deliberately possible)
YOU
(RED CROSS WORKER)
You can invest in flood or drought
preparedness (or in other, non-climate, important things)
What are the chances of a disaster this year?
(Based on past record)
Probability of Regional Drought =
Probability of Regional Flood =
1 in 6
1 in 6
NO
DISASTER
DISASTER
NO
PREPAREDNE
SS
Other investments pay off
Gain
+2
Few other investments
PREPAREDNESS
Gain only
+1
Avoidable damages
Lose
-3
No avoidable damages
No change
Owe more points than you have? FIRED!
WINNERS & LOSERS
Losing Player(s):
All who run out of performance points (OUT)
Losing Team:
Most team members out
Winning Team:
Most points accumulated collectively
Winning Player:
Most points accumulated individually
LET’S
PLAY!
What about Climate Change?
Based on past record, Probability of Regional Drought = 1 in 6
In the year 2025, Probability of Regional Drought = ?