The CEDSS Model and the Scottish case
study
Gary Polhill and Nick Gotts
1
Outline
The CEDSS model
Stakeholder Advisory Group input
Demonstration of the CEDSS model
Data sources, refining the model
Future scenarios for CEDSS
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The CEDSS Model
 Community Energy Demand Social Simulator
 Households located in a street-network, making decisions
about buying energy-using and energy-saving appliances
and equipment.
 Households’ energy use, and expenditure on energy and
energy-related equipment, is tracked over time.
 Data for runs of the model covering the period 2000-2010
is drawn from a range of publicly-available sources, and
from the first (2010) GILDED survey.
 Runs covering the period 2010-2050 are in preparation.
3
Stakeholder Advisory Group Input
Demo of prototype model
followed by Knowledge Elicitation
Exercise:
April 2010 SAG meeting
 Post-it session
 Discussion of post-its
 Opportunity to add new
post-its
 Index card sorting exercise 1:
 Categories that made sense
to participants
 Index card sorting exercise 2:
 Ontological categories
predefined by us
 Entities
 Processes
 Relationships
 Attributes
“Using the picture as a guide, identify
anything associated with household energy
use or household energy activities”
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Index Card Sorting 1
5
Index Card Sorting 2
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Ontology from the index cards
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Ontology from another meeting in Budapest
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Demonstration of the CEDSS model
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Refining the CEDSS Model
Input data
GILDED
survey
Free
parameters
Calibration
data
DECC
statistics
ONS
statistics
Comparison
CEDSS
Results
Comparison
SG statistics
Argos
catalogues
Validation
data
Etc.
10
CEDSS Future Scenarios
Input data
GILDED survey
(starting point)
EC scenarios
(fuel prices)
Free
parameters
CEDSS
Results
OECD/IEA
Projections
(energy savings)
Peer-reviewed
papers (appliance
Prices, efficiency)
Policy
Implications