LSAC RESEARCH REPORT SERIES
 The Probability of Exceedance as a Nonparametric
Person-Fit Statistic for Tests of Moderate Length
Jorge N. Tendeiro
Rob R. Meijer
University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
 Law School Admission Council
Research Report 13-06
November 2013
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... 1
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1
A Nonparametric Approach to Person Fit ................................................................... 2
The Probability of Exceedance .................................................................................... 4
Simulation Study ........................................................................................................... 7
Data Simulation: Normal Response Patterns ....................................................... 7
Data Simulation: Aberrant Response Patterns ..................................................... 8
Results: Model Variations ..................................................................................... 9
Results: Detection Rate of the PE ...................................................................... 11
Asymptotic Distribution of the PE Statistic .............................................................. 13
Discussion ................................................................................................................... 13
References ................................................................................................................... 14
Appendix A .................................................................................................................. 18
Appendix B .................................................................................................................. 20
i
Executive Summary
In this report we present a measure to identify unlikely patterns of correct/incorrect
answers to test questions (commonly referred to as items). Some examples of why such
patterns may occur include the misinterpretation of questions, item preknowledge,
answer copying, or guessing behavior. The proposed measure is the probability of
exceedance (PE). PE provides information about the probability of a correct/incorrect
answer pattern, conditional on the test taker’s total score. Although this concept is not
new, it is hardly if ever applied in practice.
In this report we show how the PE of a response vector can be computed and how
misfitting response patterns are detected. A simulation study is conducted to investigate
the robustness of this procedure.
Introduction
In psychological and educational testing, checking the validity of individual test
scores is an important element in the assessment procedure. One way to do this is to
investigate the consistency of observed item scores with the probability expected under
an item response theory (IRT; Embretson & Reise, 2000) model. Analyzing how well
individual response vectors fit an IRT model is known as person-fit research or
appropriateness measurement (e.g., Meijer & Sijtsma, 2001). The importance of
person-fit research is, for example, recognized in the guidelines of the International Test
Commission (2011), which recommended checking unexpected response patterns as
one of many tools to determine test score validity (p. 17). Also, several testing
organizations have considered implementing methods for individual test score and item
score validity. For example, at Educational Testing Service, the TOEFL program has
already implemented quality control charts for its quarterly reviews as preemptive
checks (A. von Davier, personal communication, July 12, 2012). Another example of the
usefulness of checking the consistency of individual item scores was given in Meijer,
Egberink, Emons, and Sijtsma (2008), who identified schoolchildren who did not
understand the phrasing of many questions of a questionnaire on self-concept.
Furthermore, Ferrando (2012) discussed the use of person-fit research to screen for
idiosyncratic answering behavior and low person-reliability for students filling out a
Neuroticism and Extraversion personality scale. For overviews on some of the statistics
and procedures available in person-fit research, see Karabatsos (2003) and Meijer and
Sijtsma (1995, 2001).
Although there are many person-fit statistics available in the literature, most statistics
have been proposed in the context of parametric IRT. In many test applications,
however, it can be very convenient to have person-fit statistics that do not require the
estimation of parametric IRT parameters, but instead only require nonparametric IRT
item indices such as the item proportion-correct scores. For example, for almost all tests
and questionnaires that are evaluated in the Dutch Rating System for Test Quality
(Evers, Sijtsma, Lucassen, & Meijer, 2010) no information is available with respect to
parametric IRT parameters, and this also applies to tests in other countries (Geisinger,
2012).
1
Meijer and Sijtsma (2001) discussed early attempts to formulate nonparametric IRT
statistics (see also Emons, 2008; Meijer, 1994). When applying these statistics,
however, there is a lack of research to help one decide when to classify an item score
pattern as either fitting or misfitting. To classify a pattern as (mis)fitting, a distribution is
needed. This distribution can be based on empirical results, exact results, asymptotic
results, or simulation. For parametric IRT, there are studies that discuss these
distributions (e.g., Drasgow, Levine, & McLaughlin, 1991; Magis, Raîche, & Béland,
2012; Meijer & Tendeiro, 2012; Snijders, 2001). For nonparametric approaches,
however, there are almost no studies that discuss when to classify an item score pattern
as misfitting. Although one can always use some rule of thumb such as, for example,
1.5 standard deviations from the mean score (see, e.g., Tukey, 1977), in many
situations information about the probability of the realization of a particular score pattern
would help researchers to decide when to classify a pattern as misfitting.
In this report we discuss an approach to classify a score pattern as misfitting
(aberrant) without assuming a parametric model: the probability of exceedance (PE).
We show that for tests of moderate length, the exact distribution of the PE can be used
to classify a score pattern as normal or aberrant. The procedures to compute the PE for
individual response vectors and the associated exact distributions are explained and are
partly based on earlier work by van der Flier (1982). Furthermore, we show that
violations of the assumption of invariant item ordering (IIO; Meijer & Egberink, 2012;
Sijtsma & Junker, 1996; Sijtsma, Meijer, & van der Ark, 2011) property do not seem to
have a large impact on the performance of the PE statistic. Finally, the extension of the
PE statistic to long tests is discussed.
A Nonparametric Approach to Person Fit
In the present study, nonparametric IRT models (NIRT; Mokken & Lewis, 1982;
Sijtsma & Molenaar, 2002) are used. The main goal in NIRT is to use the scores of a
group of persons on a test to rank the persons on an assumed latent trait  (and not to
estimate each person’s  -score, as is done in parametric IRT). Let random variable X i
denote the score on item i ( i  1,, k , where k is the numbers of items in the test or
questionnaire). All items considered in this report are dichotomous; hence item scores
are equal to either 0 or 1 (to code incorrect or correct answers, respectively). The item
response function (IRF) is defined as
Pi    P  X i  1 |   ,
(1)
where i  1,, k. In NIRT the IRFs are defined as distribution-free functions of the latent
ability. The following three assumptions in NIRT are typically used (e.g., Sijtsma &
Molenaar, 2002, p. 18):
2
1. Unidimensionality: All items in the test are designed to predominantly measure
the same latent trait  .
2. Local independence, that is, answers to different items are statistically
independent conditional on  , therefore
k
P  X 1  x1 ,, X k  xk |     P  X i  xi |  .
i 1
3. Latent monotonicity of the IRFs: Each IRF is monotone nondecreasing in  , that
is, Pi a   Pi b  for all a  b and i  1,, k. It can be observed that these
assumptions also apply to the most common parametric IRT models (e.g., the
logistic models; see Embretson & Reise, 2000).
In this sense, one can regard parametric IRT models as nonparametric IRT models
with added constraints (namely, in the functional relationship between  and the
probability of answering the item correctly).
The NIRT model that satisfies assumptions 1–3 is known as the Monotone
Homogeneity Model (MHM). When the items are dichotomous, the MHM implies a
stochastic ordering of the latent trait  (SOL) by means of the total score statistic
X+ 
i 1 xi
k
(Hemker, Sijtsma, Molenaar, & Junker, 1997):
P(  c | X  s)  P(  c | X  t ),
(2)
for any fixed value c and for any total scores 0  s  t  k. SOL is an important property
because it justifies the common use of the total score X  to infer the ordering of the
persons on the unobservable latent scale.
IIO is a condition that eases the interpretation of person-fit results, and it is used to
interpret PE. The k items of a test satisfy the IIO assumption if
P1    P2     Pk   for all  .
(3)
In other words, IIO means that the IRFs do not intersect (Sijtsma & Molenaar, 2002, p.
21). A model verifying IIO allows for an ordering of the items that is independent from  .
In practical terms, this means that the relative difficulty of the items is the same across
the entire latent scale.
IIO may seem to be a strong assumption that is difficult to satisfy in practice for
some datasets (e.g., Ligtvoet, van der Ark, te Marvelde, & Sijtsma, 2010; Sijtsma &
Junker, 1996; Sijtsma et al., 2011). However, Meijer and Egberink (2012) and Meijer,
Tendeiro, and Wanders (2013) found that, for clinical scales, IIO was satisfied in many
cases once low discriminating items were removed from the data. Besides, Sijtsma and
3
Meijer (2001) showed that the performance of a number of person-fit statistics was
robust against violations of IIO. We assume IIO when we discuss PE. Practical
consequences of violating IIO with respect to the PE statistic will be addressed later in
the report.
The Probability of Exceedance
Define the proportion-correct score (p-value) of item i by pi 
 P ( ) f ( )d , where
i
f   is the density of ability  in the population. Recall that the IIO assumption allows
ordering the items conditional on  ; see Equation (3). The probability that random
vector X   X1 ,, X k  will be equal to a specific response vector x  ( x1 , x2 ,
then be defined by
, xk ) can
k
P  x   p  X  x    pixi (1  pi )1 xi .
(4)
i 1
Pattern x deviates from the expected score pattern if too many “easy” items (i.e., items
with large pi ) are answered incorrectly, and/or if too many “difficult” items (i.e., items
with low pi ) are answered correctly. In this sense, x is considered deviant or aberrant
when it does not closely match the expected score pattern that is suggested by the
population’s p-values. The probability of exceedance (PE) of an item score pattern x,
PE(x), is a measure of the deviance between x and the expected score pattern. PE(x)
is defined as the sum of the probabilities of all response vectors which are, at most, as
likely as x, given the total score X  :
PE  x    p  X  y | X  ,
(5)
where the summation extends to all response vectors y with total score X + verifying
P  y   P  x  . Equation 5 may be equivalently written as
PE  x  

y:Y  X  , P  y   P x 

y:Y  X 
pX  y
pX  y
.
(6)
We observe that because the computation of PE relies on item response vectors that
were not necessarily observed in the data (specifically, response vectors less likely than
x), the PE person-fit statistic does not follow the likelihood principle (Birnbaum, 1962;
Lee, 2004).
4
The PE statistic requires assumptions 1–3 to hold; that is, the MHM should fit the
data adequately. Conditioning the probabilities on the right-hand side of Equation (5) on
the total score is based on the stochastic ordering of the subjects on the  scale.
Therefore, the PE of a score pattern x accumulates evidence against x based on a
subpopulation of persons with the same latent trait; see Equation (2). Response pattern
x is considered deviant or aberrant with respect to the population’s expected score if
PE  x  is smaller than a predefined level (e.g., .05 or .01, or some predefined percentile
of the exact distribution of PE).
The IIO assumption is useful for a correct interpretation of the PE because of the
unique ordering of the items by their p-values across  . Violations of IIO may lead to
situations where the relative difficulty of the items changes for different values of  , that
is, where Equation (3) is violated. Such a violation puts the adequacy of the ordering of
the p-values across the latent ability scale at risk. Assuming IIO avoids this kind of
ambiguity when interpreting item scores. Therefore, it is generally useful to use a model
meeting the IIO assumption when the main goal is to compare item score patterns
between persons with different total scores, as is the case in person-fit analyses. Thus,
the additional assumption of IIO states that the overall item ordering according to the
p-values is the same for different trait values.
The concept of PE is illustrated in Table 1 using a short test with k = 5 items. All
item score patterns with total score X  = 3 are enumerated: There are 10 different
patterns. Items are ordered by increasing order of difficulty (p-values: p1 = .8, p2 = .7,
p3 = .5, p4 = .4, and p5 = .3), although such an ordering is not strictly necessary; see
Equations (4) and (5). Column P  x  displays the probability of each response score
pattern computed using Equation (4). For example, the probability of response pattern 5
is equal to (1−p1) p2 p3 p4(1−p5) = .2*.7*.5*.4*.7 = .0196. Observe that the 10 response
patterns are ordered by increasing order of P  x  . This implies that response patterns
are ordered by decreasing order of misfit from the expected score pattern. Column
PE  x  quantifies how much each response pattern deviates from the population’s
expected response pattern based on the pi values; see Equation (5). For example, the
PE of response pattern 3 is equal to (.0036 + .0084 + .0126)/.3602 = .0683, where
.3602 is the sum of the probabilities of the 10 response patterns with a total score of 3.
It can be seen that the least deviant response vector is the Guttman pattern (1, 1, 1, 0,
0), whereas the most deviant response vector is the reversed Guttman pattern (0, 0, 1,
1, 1) (Guttman, 1944, 1950). Hence, PE can be regarded as a person-fit statistic that is
sensitive to deviations from the Guttman model.
5
TABLE 1
Response vector probabilities and probabilities of exceedance of all response vectors with three correct
answers in a test with five items
Score Pattern
Item 1
Item 2
Item 3
Item 4
Item 5
P x
PE  x 
(p = .8) (p = .7) (p = .5) (p = .4) (p = .3)
x
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
pi = p-value of item
2
3
4
5
0
0
1
1
1
.0036
.0100
0
1
0
1
1
.0084
.0333
0
1
1
0
1
.0126
.0683
1
0
0
1
1
.0144
.1083
0
1
1
1
0
.0196
.1627
1
0
1
0
1
.0216
.2227
1
0
1
1
0
.0336
.3159
1
1
0
0
1
.0504
.4559
1
1
0
1
0
.0784
.6735
1
1
1
0
0
.1176
1.0000
i  i  1,,5 ; P  x  = probability of response score pattern x; PE  x  = probability
of exceedance of response score pattern x.
This example can be extended to larger tests. The complete enumeration of
response score patterns for given values of k and X  becomes computationally more
intensive for larger number of items k . The computation of the exact distribution of PE is
feasible for tests consisting of up to k = 20 items using currently available personal
computers. Table 2 gives an idea of the number of possible response patterns for given
values of k and X  . Appendix A shows the R (R Development Core Team, 2011) code
that can be used to perform all the necessary computations.
TABLE 2
Number of possible response patterns given the total number of
items k and the total correct score X+
k
X
5
10
15
20
25
30
50
3
5
8
10
12
15
25
Number of Patterns
10
252
6435
184,756
5,200,300
155,117,520
126,410,606,437,752
We observe that the estimation of the cutoff level for the PE statistic is dependent
on the type of data to be analyzed. Factors such as the number of items in the scale,
the item p-values, and the total sum score play a role in determining the exact
distribution of the PE statistic. Several approaches can be conceived to determine
adequate cutoff values, such as using predefined cutoff values (1%, 5%, or 10%),
using percentiles of the empirical distribution, using percentiles of the exact distribution,
or estimating cutoff values using bootstrapping procedures. The researcher should
decide, in each situation, which approach provides the most sensible results in terms of
false/true-positive rates.
6
Simulation Study
We investigated the performance of the PE statistic in a simulation study. The goal
was to gain a clearer impression concerning PE’s detection rates and robustness
against violations of the NIRT model assumptions, under two different settings. In
particular, we were interested in studying the robustness of PE against violations of IIO
using simulated data. As discussed before, IIO is a useful property in the framework of
person fit because it allows a unique ordering of the items across the latent scale  . A
violation of Equation (3) may lead to intervals on the  scale where, say, item i is
easier than item j , and intervals where the reverse is also possible. Such situations
should be avoided whenever possible.
In this section we present the results of a simulation study that investigated how
much the PE statistic is affected by violations of IIO (and by other necessary model
assumptions, to be presented shortly). Several procedures from the mokken R package
(van der Ark, 2007, 2012) were used to check the fit of the MHM to the data as well as
violations of IIO. We followed general guidelines given by Sijtsma et al. (2011) and
Meijer and Tendeiro (2012) to perform our analyses. In particular, Meijer and Tendeiro
(2012) indicated that before investigating person fit it is important to first check whether
the IRT model fits the data; if not, misfit is difficult to interpret. Hence, special attention
is paid to model fitting prior to person-fit assessment.
Data Simulation: Normal Response Patterns
Twenty different datasets with scores of 1,000 persons on 15 items were generated
using the one-parameter logistic model with item discrimination equal to 1.7 for every
item; item-difficulty and person-ability parameters were drawn from the standard normal
distribution. The number and percentages of test takers displaying aberrant behavior
equaled N.aberr = 10, 50, and 100, corresponding to 1%, 5%, and 10% of the test
takers, respectively, and the number and percentages of items answered aberrantly
equaled k.aberr = 3, 5, and 10, corresponding to 20%, 33%, and 66% of the items,
respectively. Test takers were randomly selected to display aberrant behavior according
to two criteria: The latent ability should be low (more precisely,  < −1), and the total
sum score on the (k.aberr+3) most difficult items of the scale should not exceed 3. Two
types of aberrant behavior were mimicked in our simulation: Cheating and random
responding. In the case of cheating, k.aberr 0s out of the (k.aberr+3) most difficult items
were randomly selected and changed into 1s. In the case of random responding, each
of the k.aberr 0s out of the (k.aberr+3) most difficult items were changed into 1s with a
probability of .25. Moreover, 20 replications were simulated for each condition. This
framework served as the basis for our simulation study.
We started the analysis by confirming that some necessary conditions for the MHM
to hold were met for the 20 datasets generated (prior to imputing aberrant behavior). All
inter-item covariances were non-negative (Sijtsma & Molenaar, 2002, Theorem 4.1),
and all item-pair scalability coefficients H ij satisfied 0 < H ij < 1 (Sijtsma & Molenaar,
2002, Theorem 4.3). Moreover, no violations of monotonicity were found. The
Automated Item Selection Procedure (AISP; Mokken, 1971; Sijtsma & Molenaar, 2002)
was used to select items that comply with the MHM (i.e., such that all inter-item
7
covariances are positive and all item scalability coefficients H i are larger than a
specified lower bound c = .3). All 15 items were selected by the AISP, thus assuring the
scalability of the generated set of items. The overall scalability coefficients of the 20
datasets varied between H  .42 and H  .50, and hence the scale can be
considered moderate in precision with respect to its ability to order persons on the latent
scale by means of the total scores (Mokken, 1971). Also, we used several methods
available in the mokken package to look for violations of IIO: The pmatrix method
(Molenaar & Sijtsma, 2000), the rest score method (Molenaar & Sijtsma, 2000), and the
manifest IIO method (MIIO; Ligtvoet et al., 2010). No significant violations of IIO were
found. The H T coefficients of the 20 datasets varied between .32 and .64 (mean = .48,
SD = .08) and thus the precision of the item ordering was, on average, medium
(Ligtvoet et al., 2010).
Data Simulation: Aberrant Response Patterns
Next, aberrant behavior (cheating, random responding) was inputted in each 15-item
dataset following the procedure previously explained. The probability of exceedance
was then computed for each of the 1,000 test takers. A cutoff level of .10 was used as
the criterion to flag item score vectors: Vectors x verifying PE  x  < .10 were flagged as
potentially displaying aberrant behavior. This cutoff level kept empirical Type I error
rates between 1% and 3% in case of cheating (Table 3) and between 2% and 3% in
case of random responding (Table 4).
TABLE 3
Empirical Type I error rates (mean, SD) in the cheating behavior case, across 20 replications, using
PE = .10 as threshold
Total Number of Items
N.aberr
k.aberr
15
16
17
18
19
20
10
3
.02 (.006)
.03 (.005)
.03 (.006)
.02 (.005)
.03 (.007)
.03 (.006)
5
.02 (.006)
.03 (.005)
.03 (.006)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.007)
.03 (.005)
10
.02 (.006)
.03 (.005)
.03 (.005)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.007)
.03 (.006)
50
3
.02 (.006)
.02 (.004)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.007)
.02 (.005)
5
.02 (.006)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.007)
.02 (.006)
10
.02 (.007)
.02 (.006)
.02 (.006)
.02 (.006)
.02 (.008)
.02 (.006)
100
3
.02 (.006)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.006)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.007)
.02 (.006)
5
.01 (.006)
.02 (.005)
.01 (.005)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.006)
.02 (.006)
10
.02 (.007)
.02 (.007)
.02 (.008)
.02 (.008)
.02 (.009)
.02 (.008)
N.aberr = number of simulated test takers displaying cheating behavior; k.aberr = number of items whose
scores have been changed in order to display cheating behavior.
8
TABLE 4
Empirical Type I error rates (mean, SD) in the random responding behavior case, across 20 replications,
using PE = .10 as threshold
Total Number of Items
N.aberr
k.aberr
15
16
17
18
19
20
10
3
.02 (.006)
.03 (.005)
.03 (.006)
.03 (.005)
.03 (.007)
.03 (.006)
5
.02 (.007)
.03 (.005)
.03 (.006)
.03 (.005)
.03 (.007)
.03 (.006)
10
.02 (.006)
.03 (.005)
.03 (.006)
.03 (.005)
.03 (.007)
.03 (.006)
50
3
.02 (.006)
.02 (.005)
.03 (.006)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.007)
.03 (.005)
5
.02 (.006)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.006)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.006)
.03 (.005)
10
.02 (.006)
.03 (.005)
.03 (.005)
.03 (.005)
.03 (.007)
.03 (.005)
100
3
.02 (.006)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.006)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.007)
.02 (.005)
5
.02 (.006)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.006)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.007)
.02 (.006)
10
.02 (.007)
.02 (.006)
.02 (.006)
.02 (.005)
.02 (.007)
.02 (.005)
N.aberr = number of simulated test takers displaying random responding behavior; k.aberr = number of
items whose scores have been changed in order to display random responding behavior.
Scores on five additional items were generated using a similar procedure as before
except for the discrimination parameter, which was now fixed at 1.2 for these items. We
combined the scores on the original 15 items with the scores on these extra 1, 2,…, 5
items. The total number of items in the scale (variable length) was also used as a factor
to explain the findings in the simulation study. It was expected that the different
discrimination values used to generate the scores on the additional set of items would
lead to an increasing number of significant violations of IIO (Sijtsma & Molenaar, 2002).
Results: Model Violations
The effects of N.aberr, k.aberr, and length on the mean number of significant
violations to IIO were analyzed using full factorial models. Results are summarized in
the top panels of Tables 5 and 6. Factor length had indeed the largest effect on the
number of significant violations to IIO in the random responding situation. Similar results
were found in the cheating situation with the exception of the pmatrix criterion.
We also inspected whether other NIRT model assumptions were affected by our
data manipulation (concerning the imputation of aberrant behavior and the addition of
one through five extra items to the data). We checked whether inter-item covariances
were non-negative (Sijtsma & Molenaar, 2002, Theorem 4.1); item-pair scalability
coefficients H ij were between 0 and 1 (Sijtsma & Molenaar, 2002, Theorem 4.3), and
IRFs displayed monotonicity. Full factorial models (main effects: N.aberr, k.aberr, and
length) were fitted. It was verified that all model assumptions were significantly affected
[non-negative inter-item covariances: F(9,1070) = 66.42, p < .01, R2 = .36; H ij
coefficients between 0 and 1: F(9,1070) = 150.3, p < .01, R2 = .56; monotonicity:
F(9,1070) = 91.29, p < .01, R2 = .43]. The bottom panels of Tables 5 and 6 show the
effect sizes for each factor. It can be verified that N.aberr (the proportion of subjects in
the sample displaying aberrant behavior) was the factor with the largest effect on the
violations of the NIRT model conditions.
9
TABLE 5
Effect of N.aberr, k.aberr, and length on the deterioration of NIRT model assumptions in the cheating
setting
N.aberr
k.aberr
length
Global Effect
2
2
2
2
ω = .36
ω = .19
ω = .05
R = .62
pmatrix
2
2
2
2
ω = .21
ω = .18
ω = .23
R = .62
restscore
2
2
2
2
ω = .19
ω = .17
ω = .27
R = .63
MIIO
2
2
2
2
ω = .32
ω = .01
ω = .02
R = .36
Cov
2
2
2
2
ω = .41
ω = .02
R = .43
Monot
ω ≤ .01
2
2
2
2
ω = .52
ω = .04
R = .56
ω ≤ .01
H
ij
N.aberr = number of simulated test takers displaying cheating behavior; k.aberr = number of items
whose scores have been changed in order to display cheating behavior; length = number of items in the
dataset; global effect = fit of the regression model using main effects only.
Top panel: Mean number of significant violations to IIO according to the pmatrix, restscore, and MIIO
procedures.
Bottom panel: Cov = proportion of the replications in which all inter-item covariances are non-negative;
Monot = mean number of significant violations to monotonicity; H ij = mean number of significant
violations to item-pair scalability coefficients verifying 0 < H ij < 1.
TABLE 6
Effect of N.aberr, k.aberr, and length on the deterioration of NIRT model assumptions in the random
responding setting
N.aberr
k.aberr
length
Global Effect
2
2
2
2
ω = .01
ω
=
.05
R = .07
pmatrix
ω ≤ .01
2
2
2
2
ω = .01
ω = .41
R = .43
restscore
ω ≤ .01
2
2
2
2
ω = .01
ω = .01
ω = .44
R = .47
MIIO
2
2
2
2
ω = .10
ω = .01
ω = .09
R = .20
Cov
2
2
2
2
ω = .20
ω = .02
R = .24
Monot
ω ≤ .01
2
2
2
2
ω = .17
ω = .02
ω = .01
R = .21
H ij
N.aberr = number of simulated test takers displaying random responding behavior; k.aberr = number of
items whose scores have been changed in order to display random responding behavior; length =
number of items in the dataset; global effect = fit of the regression model using main effects only.
Top panel: Mean number of significant violations to IIO according to the pmatrix, restscore, and MIIO
procedures.
Bottom panel: Cov = proportion of the replications in which all inter-item covariances are non-negative;
Monot = mean number of significant violations to monotonicity; H ij = mean number of significant
violations to item-pair scalability coefficients verifying 0 < H ij < 1.
Summarizing, we concluded that adding one through five differently discriminating
items to the initial set of 15 items did lead to a significant increase in the number of
violations to IIO. This effect was more evident in the random responding setting than in
the cheating setting. Moreover, it was verified that other NIRT model assumptions (nonnegative inter-item covariances, H ij coefficient between 0 and 1, and latent
monotonicity) were mostly affected by the number of subjects in the sample that
displayed aberrant behavior. We cannot stress enough how important it is to carefully
check, and report, model assumptions before attempting any kind of person-fit analyses.
10
Results: Detection Rate of the PE
Our next step was to analyze the detection rate of the PE under both aberrant
behaviors considered in this study. Figures 1 and 2 (for cheating and random
responding, respectively) display the detection rates found using a PE threshold value
of .10; Table 7 summarizes the size of the effects found. The number of items
displaying aberrant behavior (k.aberr) had the largest effect on the detection rates in
both settings. Interestingly, the detection rates were higher for a moderate value of
k.aberr (= 5); both low and large values of k.aberr are associated with lower power. This
finding is in line with results in St-Onge, Valois, Abdous, and Germain (2011), who
showed that the detection rates of several person-fit statistics increase with aberrance
rates only to some point, after which a decrease is to be expected. It was also observed
that the cheating detection rates decreased with N.aberr. This can be understood by
observing that the cheating behavior that we imputed led to sum-score differences
(before versus after cheating imputation), which had a large impact on the original
sum-scores (which were typically very low). In other words, the performance of PE
seemed to decrease when the aberrance rate increased beyond moderate boundaries
(St-Onge et al., 2011). The imputation of random responding behavior, on the other
hand, was milder (the selected 0s were changes into 1s with a probability of .25). This
introduced a more moderate rate of aberrant behavior in the data, and the PE statistic
performed accordingly (for k.aberr = 3, 10): Its detection rate improved with N.aberr.
The k.aberr = 5 in the random responding case was different because the PE’s
detection rate decreased with N.aberr.
FIGURE 1. Cheating detection rate of PE for a number of items equal to 15 (top left), 16 (top middle), 17
(top right), 18 (bottom left), 19 (bottom middle), and 20 (bottom right).
11
FIGURE 2. Random responding detection rate of PE for a number of items equal to 15 (top left), 16 (top
middle), 17 (top right), 18 (bottom left), 19 (bottom middle), and 20 (bottom right).
TABLE 7
Effect of N.aberr, k.aberr, and length on detection rates for cheating and random responding
N.aberr
k.aberr
length
Global Effect
2
2
2
2
ω = .09
ω = .22
ω = .03
R = .34
Cheating
2
2
2
2
ω = .00
ω = .26
ω = .01
R = .27
Random responding
Note. N.aberr = number of simulated test takers displaying aberrant behavior; k.aberr = number of items
whose scores have been changed in order to display aberrant behavior; length = number of items in the
dataset; global effect = fit of the regression model using main effects only.
Once more, the explanation resides in the balance that must exist between the
performance of a person-fit statistic (PE in this study) and the level of aberrant rate in
the data. When k.aberr = 5 the actual detection rate is larger than for the other values
considered, but adding more and more “aberrant” test takers to the set did surpass
some “breakpoint” of the PE statistic, which affected its performance for higher rates of
aberrant test takers in the data.
In general, it can be concluded that the PE performed very well in the cheating case
and moderately well in the random responding case. The PE statistic did not seem to be
overly affected by violations of IIO or other model assumptions. Several factors, such as
the number of test takers and items displaying aberrant behavior, must be taken into
account when judging the performance of PE. Also, we stress two important ideas that
should be taken into account when attempting to perform any person-fit analysis (using
PE or any other statistic). We find it important to check whether the item response
model of choice fits the data adequately (as we did) and to check how the performance
of the person-fit statistic is overly affected by the several factors that play a role in fit
measurement.
12
Asymptotic Distribution of the PE Statistic
One limitation of the PE statistic is that its computation requires a complete
enumeration of all response patterns with the same length and total-correct score as the
response pattern under inspection. This task becomes demanding for numbers of items
larger than, say, 20 on an average personal computer. Table 2 illustrates how quickly
the total number of response vectors increases as the number of items increases.
Depending on the number of items, it might be possible to circumvent the problem by
using supercomputers. Nevertheless, it would be useful to approximate the exact
distribution of the PE statistic through an asymptotic distribution for long tests. In
Appendix B we show the statistical derivation (based on previous work by van der Flier,
1982) that we used in an attempt to approximate the exact distribution of PE for large
tests. We confirmed that this approximate distribution worked well only for a very limited
range of situations (i.e., when all the p-values are very close to each other) for tests
consisting of 20 items. Hence, it is still not clear how many items are required in order
for the approximate distribution to be useful for long tests. Future research that can
clarify this issue, or that possibly presents different distributional alternatives, is needed.
Discussion
In this report, we discussed a nonparametric statistic to detect misfitting item score
patterns that is based on complete enumeration of all possible item score patterns. A
big advantage of this method compared to existing methods is that practitioners can use
the PE using a prespecified probability level. A drawback is that it can only be used for
tests of moderate length due to the rapid increase of computational labor as the number
of items increases. It is important to observe that the procedure used here does not
guarantee that aberrant behavior did indeed take place whenever a flagging occurs.
The PE, as is usually the case for interpreting person-fit statistics, can only provide an
indication of the presence of aberrant behavior. The PE should not be used as
conclusive evidence that aberrant behavior did occur. Some follow-up strategies (e.g.,
interviewing the flagged test takers, interviewing the proctors, consulting the seating
charts) could provide more substantive information.
In practice some items may not fit the IRT model. A researcher finds himself then in
the vexing position of having to remove items because of inferior psychometric quality
and keeping items in the scale because longer tests are better suited to detect person
misfit (Meijer, Sijtsma, & Molenaar, 1995). There are good arguments, however, in favor
of first investigating the scale quality of a set of items before conducting person-fit
research. Inspecting the psychometric quality of the items and removing items with
insufficient quality reduces the error component when we try to interpret misfitting
response behavior. When an item cannot be described by an IRT model (e.g., because
it correlates negatively with other items), or when an item has low discrimination (i.e.,
low H i value), its score is a very unreliable indicator of the latent variable. Taking these
item scores into account to assess person fit increases the error component, and thus
hinders the (psychological) interpretation. Note that the PE only relates the items with
13
the proportion-correct scores and thus does not account for the discrimination of an item.
Thus, it is important to check for items with low discriminating power, as we did.
Finally, in this study we discussed the PE for dichotomous items, which are often
encountered in educational and intelligence testing. However, this procedure can be
generalized to polytomous item scores, which will be a topic for future research.
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17
Appendix A: R Code for Computing PE
Function “uniqueperm2” (retrieved from
http://stackoverflow.com/questions/5671149/permute-all-unique-enumerations-of-avector-in-r) generates all unique permutations of a dichotomous vector x of size n.
Function “PE” computes the PE for each person (= row) of the dataset “Data”.
uniqueperm2 <- function(x) {
dat <- factor(x)
N <- length(dat)
n <- tabulate(dat)
ng <- length(n)
if(ng==1) return(x)
a <- N-c(0,cumsum(n))[-(ng+1)]
foo <- lapply(1:ng, function(i) matrix(combn(a[i],n[i]),nrow=n[i]))
out <- matrix(NA, nrow=N, ncol=prod(sapply(foo, ncol)))
xxx <- c(0,cumsum(sapply(foo, nrow)))
xxx <- cbind(xxx[-length(xxx)]+1, xxx[-1])
miss <- matrix(1:N,ncol=1)
for(i in seq_len(length(foo)-1)) {
l1 <- foo[[i]]
nn <- ncol(miss)
miss <- matrix(rep(miss, ncol(l1)), nrow=nrow(miss))
k <- (rep(0:(ncol(miss)-1), each=nrow(l1)))*nrow(miss) +
l1[,rep(1:ncol(l1), each=nn)]
out[xxx[i,1]:xxx[i,2],] <- matrix(miss[k], ncol=ncol(miss))
miss <- matrix(miss[-k], ncol=ncol(miss))}
k <- length(foo)
out[xxx[k,1]:xxx[k,2],] <- miss
out <- out[rank(as.numeric(dat), ties="first"),]
foo <- cbind(as.vector(out), as.vector(col(out)))
out[foo] <- x
t(out)}
PE <- function(Data){
Nsubs <- dim(Data)[1];
Nitems <- dim(Data)[2];
if (Nitems > 20) {print("Number of items is > 20. Abort."); break};
Ps <- as.vector(apply(Data,2,sum) / Nsubs);
Qs <- 1-Ps;
possible.NC <- as.numeric(levels(factor(apply(Data,1,sum))))
PEvec.data <- rep(NA,Nsubs);
for (itms in 1:length(possible.NC)){
18
NC <- possible.NC[itms];
Data.NC <- uniqueperm2(c(rep(1,NC),rep(0,Nitems-NC)));
Nvecs.NC <- if (length(Data.NC)==Nitems){1} else {dim(Data.NC)[1]};
Pvec <- NULL;
if (Nvecs.NC > 1){
for (i in 1:Nvecs.NC){
Pvec <- c(Pvec,prod(Ps^Data.NC[i,])*prod(Qs^(1-Data.NC[i,])))}}
PEvec <- NULL;
if (Nvecs.NC > 1){
for (i in 1:Nvecs.NC){PEvec <- c(PEvec,sum(Pvec[Pvec <=
Pvec[i]])/sum(Pvec))}}
else {PEvec <- c(1)};
suitable.subs <- which(apply(Data,1,sum) == NC);
if (Nvecs.NC > 1){
for (i in 1:length(suitable.subs)){
sub=1;
while (sum(abs(Data.NC[sub,]-Data[suitable.subs[i],])) > 0 & sub <=
Nvecs.NC){sub <- sub+1}
PEvec.data[suitable.subs[i]] <- PEvec[sub];}}
else {for (i in 1:length(suitable.subs)){PEvec.data[suitable.subs[i]] <- 1}}}
PEvec.data;}
19
Appendix B: An Attempt to
Derive an Asymptotic Distribution of the PE Statistic
Consider the likelihood of response vector x  ( x1, x2 ,, xk ) with total score X  :
k
 p
L x = log( p(X  x)) =  xi log i
 1  pi
i 1
 k
   log 1  pi  = Vx  C.
 i 1
(B-1)
The likelihood of x is a sum of two terms: a random variable denoted Vx and a constant
term that does not depend on x. If the number of items is sufficiently large ( k  20 ) and
if the set of p-values displays a “reasonable variance” (van der Flier, 1982, p. 295), then
it can be shown that Vx (conditional on X  ) is asymptotically normally distributed with
mean
k
k
   pi log
i 1
p
 pi (1  pi ) log 1  ip
pi
 i 1
1  pi
i 
k
 pi (1  pi )
k

X    pi 


i 1 

(B-2)
i 1
and variance
 k
 p (1  p ) log pi
i
2
 i
k
1  pi


p
i

1
 2   pi (1  pi ) log i   
k
 1  pi 
i 1
 pi (1  pi )




2
(B-3)
i 1
(van der Flier, 1982, pp. 295–296). As a consequence, it can be concluded that L x
(conditional on X  ) is asymptotically normally distributed with mean
k
 L     log(1  pi ) and variance  L2   2 under the conditions previously stated.
i 1
This result allows deriving an asymptotic distribution for p(X  x)  exp(L x ) conditional
on X  :
 log p0   L 
 ,
Pexp(L x )  p0   PL x  log p0   
L


with p0 between 0 and 1, and Ф denoting the normal distribution function.
20
(B-4)
We considered using the right-side expression of Equation (B-4) as an
approximation for PE  x  . The approximation did not work well for tests consisting of 20
items except in cases where all the p-values were very close to each other. Such cases
are of limited interest in practical terms. It is also still unclear how many items are
required for the method to produce reliable approximations of the PE for long tests.
Answering this question, or looking for different alternatives that work well in a wider
range of cases, should be the focus of future research.
21