CausalBR1
The Caldwells decided long ago, that when it was time to replace their old car, they would get
what they called „a solid, safety-conscious, built-to-last Swedish car,“ either a Volvo or a Saab.
As luck would have it, their car died on the last day of the model year closeout sale for both
Volvo and Saab. The model year was changing for both cars and the dollar's exchange rate
against the euro had recently dropped; if they were to wait to buy either a Volvo or a Saab, it
would add about 2500 dollars to the price because of it.
CausalBR2
They quickly looked at product reviews and found the expert consensus to be that both cars
were mechanically solid, but the Volvo was thought to be slightly superior in some reports. It
was also reported that readers who owned a Volvo complained slightly less about mechanical
problems than readers who owned a Saab.
They were about to negotiate a deal with the Volvo salesman when Mr. Caldwell remembered
that he had two friends who owned a Saab and another friend who owned a Volvo. Mr. Caldwell
called his friends. Both Saab owners explained that they had had a few mechanical problems,
but nothing major. The Volvo owner exploded when he was asked if he liked his car: „First of all
this fancy fuel- injection computer went out: 500 dollars! Then I had problems with the rear-end
and had to replace it. Then the transmission and the clutch. After three years I finally sold it for
scrap.“
Considering the Caldwells will buy either a Volvo or a Saab today in order to save the 2500
dollars. Which model should they buy?
o They should definitely buy the Saab o They should rather buy the Saab o They should rather buy the Volvo o They should definitely buy the Volvo SS_Hospita
In a city there are two clinics. In the larger clinic around 45 babies are born each day, in the
smaller clinic around 15. As you know, about 50 percent of all newborns are boys. They exact
percentage varies however from day to day. Sometimes it may be more than 50 percent,
sometimes less. Over a period of one year, each clinic recorded the days that more than 60
percent of the newborns were boys. In your opinion, which clinic recorded more of such days.
o The larger clinic The smaller clinic
o Both about the same
SS_Squash
A game of squash can be played to either 9 or 15 points. (Meaning that either the game ends
when one of the players reaches 9 points, or it ends when a player reaches 15 points.) If the
rules of the game stay the same and player A is a better player than player B- Which point
system gives A a higher chance of winning?
o 9 points
o 15 points
Regr2Mean
After the first two weeks of Major League Baseball the newspapers begin to publish the Top 10
batters' batting averages. After 2 weeks the top batters have around a .450 batting average. By
the end of the season no player has ever, in the history of the Major Leagues, kept a .450
batting average. Why do you believe this is?
o If a batter is known to be a good hitter, the pitcher throws the ball harder. o Over the course of the season the pitchers throw better, as they come into form. When
the pitcher is better it is more likely that the batter doesn't hit the ball. That's why the
batting averages go down. o A high batting average at the beginning of the season could be just luck. The length of
the season shows a more realistic view of a batter's ability. o A batter who has a good run at the beginning of the season is under enormous pressure
to sustain his performance. The stress of which influences his performance for the
worse. o If a batter is known for his batting average he doesn't get pitches that are hittable.
Instead, the pitcher throws to the corner of the plate because it doesn't matter to him
if he loses to the batter. ( in baseball we would normally say 'to walk' the batter bzw. if
he walks the batter) GF1_Slot
On a slot machine, players win in 1 out of 10 plays. Julia has however, already won on her first
three plays. How high are her chances on her next play?
___ in 10
GF2_Coin
Imagine that an impartial coin (a coin that has a 50/50 chance to show heads or tails) is thrown
and shows heads 5 times in a row. What do you think will happen on the sixth throw?
o It's more likely that the coin shows tails than heads o It's more likely that the coin shows heads than tails o Heads and tails have the same probability on the sixth throw CF_Linda
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and highly intelligent. She majored in Philosophy. As a
student, she was very interested in the issues of discrimination and social justice, and also
participated in the „Occupy Wall-street“ protests. Please arrange the following options in order
of their probability.
o Linda is an elementary school teacher o Linda works at a bookstore and takes yoga classes o Linda is active in the feminist movement o Linda is involved in sociology o Linda is a member of the „League of Women Voters“ o Linda is a bank teller o Linda is an insurance broker o Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement Covary1
A doctor had searched for a treatment for a mysterious illness. Eventually, he discovered a
medicine that he thought could cure people of this illness. He must test the medicine before he
can schedule it for use. He chose 300 people who have this illness, and gave them this medicine
to see what would happen. Additionally, he chose 100 people who have this illness, and didn't
give them the medicine, to see what would happen. The following table shows the results of the
experiment.
Medicine Given
No Medicine
Cured
200
75
Not Cured
100
25
Covary2
Is there a positive or a negative connection between the medicine and the healing of the illness?
Choose an answer in that you mark a number on a scale of -5 (strongly negative) to +5 (strongly
positive):
o -5 Strong negative connection o -4 o -3 o -2 o -1 o 0 No connection
o 1
o 2
o 3
o 4
o 5 Strong positive connection
Methodolog
For the past year and a half the city of Middleopolis has had an unpopular Chief of Police. He
was a public official and a friend of the mayor with little police leadership experience when he
was appointed. They mayor has recently publicly defended the Chief of Police by stating that
the crime rate has fallen by 12% since his appointment. Which of the following statements
would best refute the mayor's assertion that the Chief of Police is competent?
o The crime rates in the two nearest, similar size cities, have fallen by 18% in the same
time frame
o In an independent survey in Middleopolis, citizens have reported 40% more crimes than
the police have acknowledged o Common sense shows that a police chief has little to do with a sinking crime rate. A
larger role is played by social and economic factors that are not influenced by the role of
officials o It has been discovered that the Chief of Police has ties to businessmen, known for their
involvement in organized crime Bayes1
You've found out that David Maxwell attended a party with 25 male college professors and 75
businessmen, altogether 100 people. How high are the chances that David Maxwell is a college
professor? (0-100)
Bayes2
Next you've found out that David Maxwell is a member of the Bear's Club. 70% of the male
college professors at the above mentioned party were members of the Bear's Club and 90% of
the Businessmen at the party were members of the Bear's Club. How high are the chances that
David Maxwell is a college professor? (0-100)
DenNeglect
You are presented with two boxes of black and white marbles: a large box with 100 marbles and
a small box with 10 marbles. The marbles are spread out in one layer in each box. You are to
draw a marble out of one box (without looking of course). If you draw a black marble, you win 2
Euros. Imagine that the small box holds 1 black and 9 white marbles and the large box holds 8
black and 92 white marbles. Under these conditions; which box would you more likely draw a
marble from?
Promatch
A die with 4 red and 2 green sides was rolled 60 times. Before every roll you were asked which
color (red or green) the die would show after being rolled. For every correct answer you get a
Euro. Suppose you want to earn as much money as possible; what strategy would you choose to
so that through your predictions you would earn the most money?
o Strategy A: Intuitively change the color when one or the other color is rolled too often o Strategy B: Choose the higher probability color (red) most of the time, but sometimes,
after a stretch of red comes up, choose green o Strategy C: Choose on the basis of the frequency of each color (4 out of 6 for red, and 2
out of 6 for green). In other words: Choose red twice as often as green o Strategy D: Choose red on all 60 rolls. o Strategy E: Choose green on all 60 rolls o Strategy F: Choose red more often than green, but change here and there depending on
whether a color is “on a roll” SunkCost1
You spend the night in a hotel on vacation. You've paid 6.95€ to watch a movie. After 5 minutes
you are quite bored with the movie. Would you or wouldn't you continue watching the movie?
o Watch the movie o Don't watch the movie SunkCost2
You spend the night in a hotel on vacation. You turn on the TV and a movie is running. After 5
minutes you are quite bored with the movie. Would you or wouldn't you continue watching the
movie?
o Watch the movie o Don't watch the movie OCBias_D
A 55 year old man suffers from a heart condition. He had to quit his job because of chest pains.
He'd enjoyed his work and didn’t want to quit. His pains hindered him in other areas as well,
such as traveling and relaxing. A type of bypass surgery would relieve his pain and increase his
life expectancy from 65 to 70. 8% of of the people who have this operation however, die from it.
OCBias_C1
His doctor decided to go through with the operation. The operation was a success. Evaluate the
decision of the doctor to go through with the operation. Please quantify the decision using the
following 7 point scale.
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Absolutely correct, the opposing decision would have been inexcusable Correct, all things considered Correct, the opposing decision would have also been reasonable The decision and it's opposite are even Incorrect, but not unreasonable Incorrect, all things considered Absolutely incorrect, the opposing decision would have been inexcusable OCBias_C2
His doctor decided to go through with the operation. The operation was a failure. Evaluate the
decision of the doctor to go through with the operation. Please quantify the decision using the
following 7 point scale. o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Absolutely correct, the opposing decision would have been inexcusable Correct, all things considered Correct, the opposing decision would have also been reasonable The decision and it's opposite are even Incorrect, but not unreasonable Incorrect, all things considered Absolutely incorrect, the opposing decision would have been inexcusable