Retention Conference
Going the Extra Mile: Data-Driven, Student-Focused Retention Strategies That Work
Uday Sukhatme - June 16, 2017
• Data
• Predictive analytics – identify at-risk students
• Targeted interventions - assessment
Data – past and present
Analysis of past data and behavior to predict future outcomes and improve them
Predictive analytics :
One output variable y , for example, attrition probability
Many input variables x1, x2, x3, … , for example, HSGPA, SAT, Pace GPA, early
alerts, EFC, class attendance, Pace aid, federal aid, honors, veteran, international,
events, legacy, homework, social events, campus-home distance,…)
Need complete, reliable data
as a function of time
Crystal balls … predict the future !!!
Predictive analytics - identify at-risk students
APPLICATIONS AND STRATEGIES 1
Academic, financial,
social/other
input variables
+
Output attrition flag
(from previous years)
Regression
analysis
determines
constants Ci
– model is
now fixed
Use model to
compute
attrition
probabilities –
“scoring”
• Regression analysis contains a linear combination of input variables C0 + C1*x1 +
C2*x2 + C3*x3 + ….. to make a “best fit” to the output variable y
• Constants Ci give relative importance of various input variables
• Scoring breakdown by student helps identify the areas where students need help
• Targeted interventions optimize limited resources
Targeted interventions - assessment
Some Pace activities:
• Timely advising - advisor training, development, support
• Pace Path – www.pace.edu/pace-path - 4-year plans, alumni mentoring, RISE activities
• Pre-matriculation - developmental math, cultural immersion, financial counselors
• Improved orientation course, embedded tutoring, learning communities, late start courses,
technology, Starfish, first year interest groups, Women’s Empowerment Network, …
Pace initiatives are described in the Retention Initiatives Progress Report, compiled by the
Division of Student Success – www.pace.edu/student-success-new/about-us
Identify, engage, challenge,
plan, help, assess
Student success