June 1, 2015
DAVE METZ
I. The Role of Opinion Research in
Transportation
Ballot
Measure
Campaigns
II. Key Findings from Transportation
Campaign Research
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“Many of us make two mistakes in our
judgment of the common man. We
overestimate the amount of information he
has; and underestimate his intelligence.”
– Elmo Roper
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The Goals of Campaign Research
For campaigns, polling is not a crystal ball; instead it is
a strategic tool, used for shaping and targeting
messages. It gets past the “squeaky wheels” and tells
a campaign:




Where you start
Who you need to talk to
What you need to tell them
What kind of impact you can have
It is the key to allocating scarce resources effectively
to have the maximum impact and increase the chances
of winning.
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“In your own words, what does the
term ‘watershed’ mean to you?”
Don’t know: 47%
A geographic area through which water
flows to a common destination: 27%
A building or shed used to store water:
26%
1999 survey of 850 Santa Clara County, CA residents
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The Two Major Types of Research
 Open-end discussion;
 Closed-end questions;
 Small groups of people;
 Large number of people;
 In-depth probing;
 Limited number of
questions;
 Understanding
perceptions, opinions,
beliefs, and attitudes;
 Answers “why?” and
“how?
 Broad data, generalized
results;
 Answers “what?” and
“how many?”
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■ To Get Out of EchoChamber
■ Generate Ideas
■ Develop Vocabulary
■ Understand Texture/
Context
■ And Ensure We Are Asking
The Right Questions In
The Right Ways
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Strateg
resources
constraint
y
s
objective
■ To Develop a
Message And
Targeting Strategy
■ To Provide
Quantifiable Results
■ To Track Movement
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Sample Size: How Many People
Should We Interview?
 The number of people that are interviewed is largely
dependent on resources/declining value for margin of error.
 The more people you interview the more accurate your
results will be.
 Think of the population as an entire
pot of soup.
 Just a few spoonfuls will give you a
taste;
 But a lot of spoonfuls will give you a
much better sense of the full flavor.
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Sample Size Determines Margin of Error
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How Do You Write Survey Questions?
 Tell your pollster what you need to find out, and
they’ll draft the questions. That’s what you’re
paying them for.
 Shorter and simpler is always better.
 Ask yourself how your campaign will use every
survey question; if you don’t have an answer,
leave it out.
 The language and sequence of the horse-race /
ballot question is critical.
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Analysis of the Results
We focus on the following:
 Who are the campaign’s base supporters, and who
are potential swing voters?
 How large and well-defined a group are the swing
voters? How much do they move?
 Which messages and messengers have the greatest
impact with them?
 Is there a focused message you can deliver to a
specific target to make an impact?
 And the bottom line: can you win?
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Who Pays for the Poll?

Polls paid for by public agencies are PUBLIC records; this limits
the kinds of questions you can ask, given that your opponents
can request the results (although you may be able to submit a
summary rather than entire survey).

Polls paid for by private organizations and campaigns do not
have to be released in any way shape or form. This gives you far
more freedom to ask tough questions, and is a preferable (if
expensive) approach.
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Challenges for the Industry
 Telephone polling still works,
but will have to change
 Response rates are declining,
resulting in higher costs
 “Cell-phone only” households
make up 15% to 20% of the
population, and rising
 Interactive Voice Response (IVR) polling is increasing, but
must be used carefully
 The Internet offers a cheaper alternative, but not
necessarily a more reliable one
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I. The Role of Opinion Research in
Transportation
Ballot
Measure
Campaigns
II. Key Findings from Transportation
Campaign Research
16
Forty years after Watergate, distrust
in government has hit a record low.
Proportion Believing Government Can be Trusted
to Do What is Right “All or Most of the Time”
1972
1974
August 2014
University of Michigan Surveys
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If given the opportunity to vote out EVERY member
of Congress, Americans would now take it.
Vote to Replace Every Member of Congress
50%
50%
49%
47%
47%
48%
Mar. 2010
June
2010
50%
45%
54%
41%
56%
57%
40%
39%
60%
35%
Aug. 2010 Oct. 2010 Aug. 2011 Jan. 2012 July 2013 Oct. 2013
Yes
No
If there were a place on your ballot that allowed you to vote to defeat and replace every single member of Congress, including your
own representative, would you do this or not?
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In this context, nearly everyone agrees that
transportation funding decisions are politically-driven.
“Transportation infrastructure funding decisions are based more on
politics than on need.”
Total Agree
85%
Key Sub-Groups
62%
Strongly
Agree
Total
Disagree
13%
Don't Know 2%
Strongly
Agree
Men
62%
Women
62%
Urban Residents
58%
Suburbanites
67%
Rural Residents
54%
Car Commuters
60%
Non-Car Commuters
55%
Do NOT Commute
65%
July 2009 Greenberg/Public Opinion Strategies Poll
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Americans do not feel they have
options now, but would like them.
Transportation Statements
Agree
73%
Disagree
66%
Strongly
Agree
56%
23%
Strongly
Agree
42%
32%
Strongly
Disagree
17%
I have no choice but to
I would like more
drive as much as I do. transportation options, so I
have the freedom to
choose how to get where I
need to go.
Data from a Smart Growth America survey conducted February 27-March 2, 2010
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But keep in mind they want an OPTION,
not a replacement; few can even imagine
giving up a car.
Having a car is too expensive and
too much trouble; I want to live
where I don’t need one as much.
Data from a Ford Foundation survey conducted by Harris Interactive 4th quarter, 2010.
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In focus groups, voters across the political
spectrum describe the “future of
transportation” as one in which public
transportation plays a more prominent role.
“(I see) sleek, fast, quiet trains
covering wide distances, going
through the countryside.”
– Suburban Detroit swing voter
“(Public transportation) would be
a well oiled machine that would
work smoothly and be
reliable…you would arrive when
you’re supposed to.”
– Suburban Atlanta Democrat
“There will be trains
everywhere..terminals where
you can get everything.”
– Suburban Atlanta Democrat
“If you build it, they will
come. (People) will use it.”
– Richmond Republican woman
“There will be friendlier
neighborhoods where you could
walk…not disconnected streets.”
- Suburban Denver swing voter
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Only one in five Americans backs building
new roads as the best solution for traffic.
Which of the following proposals is the best long-term
solution to reducing traffic in your area?
Improving public transportation
2012
2009
2007
Developing communities where
people do not have to drive as
much
2012
2009
2007
Building new roads
2012
2009
2007
All/None/DK/NA
2012
2009
2007
42%
47%
49%
21%
25%
26%
20%
20%
21%
17%
8%
4%
0%
10%
2012 National Voter Survey for NRDC
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
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Americans over-estimate what their state
spends on public transportation…
If you had to guess, what proportion of every dollar your state spends
on transportation would you estimate currently goes to improving and
maintaining public transportation – like buses or trains?
0-10%
11-20%
21-30%
31-40%
41-50%
51-60%
61-70%
71-80%
81-90%
91-100%
35%
14%
8%
3%
3%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
16.2%
Average amount
among those
offering an opinion
DK/NA/Ref
36%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2012 National Voter Survey for NRDC
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
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…and still would like that
proportion nearly doubled.
If you were in charge of your state’s transportation budget, what
proportion of every dollar would you spend on improving and
maintaining public transportation – like buses or trains?
0-10%
11-20%
21-30%
31-40%
41-50%
51-60%
61-70%
71-80%
81-90%
91-100%
21%
11%
11%
28.1%
6%
12%
Average amount
among those
offering an opinion
2%
1%
1%
0%
1%
DK/NA/Ref
34%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2012 National Voter Survey for NRDC
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
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These factors add up to success: 69% of transportation
ballot measures passed last November.
 As concern about the economy recedes,
voters are becoming more confident
about their personal financial situation.
 Concern
about
relatively low.
tax
rates
remains
 Voters have far more confidence in local government
than state or federal government.
 “Bailout fatigue” leads to greater voter support for public
spending that will benefit them in tangible, local ways.
 Most voters view transportation infrastructure as an
economic investment.
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For more information, contact:
1999 Harrison St., Suite 2020
Oakland, CA 94612
Phone (510) 451-9521
Fax (510) 451-0384
[email protected]