Demand-side Equilibrium (Keynesian Equilibrium) Consumption function in the DI-C Space C C C = constant + coefficient * DI 0 DI (Disposable Income) Consumption function in the Y-C Space C C C = constant + coefficient * Y 0 Y (GDP) Consumption Function in the Y-C space The equation form: C = constant + coefficient * Y To convert from the old form C = a + b DI = a + b (Y - T) = a+bY-bT where T is a (lump-sum) tax, and DI = Y - T Consumption function in the Y-C Space C C C = ( a – bT) + b Y a – bT 0 Y (GDP) Consumption Function in the Y-C space T is assumed to be a lump-sum tax, it is a constant. DI = Y – T If T= 0, then C = a + bY, same as before If T increases, then the C function line will shift Note the C function does not shift in the DI-C space Other components in AE AE = C + I + G + (X - IM) In addition to C, there are components: I, G, and X-IM Investment (I) Investment is the business firms' purchase of new physical assets (including adding in inventories, and house construction). It very volatile. Shifters of I Business confidence and expectations Growth of demand (sales) Interest rate Product innovation Tax incentive Government expenditure G Government expenditure is the purchases of goods and services by all government levels. Determined by the government Net Exports: X - IM Gross exports minus imports Shifters of net exports: – Other countries' income: affects X – Our income: affects IM – Relative prices of exports and imports The Circular Flow of Expenditures and Income Rest of the World Financial System 3 2 Investors Consumers 4 1 Government 5 6 Firms (produce the domestic product) Flow in the circular flow diagram As the flow circulates around the circular flow system, will the volume grow larger, smaller, or keep the same level? Keynesian answer Depends on AE and Y If AE > Y, Y increases, flow grows bigger. Reasons: When AE > Y – Spending greater than output – Inventory falls – Firms find sale is strong, and increase output Keynesian answer If AE < Y, Y falls, flow becomes smaller. Reasons: When AE < Y – Spending less than output – Unintended inventory increases – Firms find sale is slow and cut the production Keynesian answer When AE = Y, remains the same level Reasons: Firms found the current output just satisfies the demand. So keep the same output level. Keynesian equilibrium condition: AE = Y The Keynesian Equilibrium Denote Y* (at Y*, AE=Y) Also called “Demand-side equilibrium” The output is determined by spending, or the demand. It is stable It does not imply full employment So recession can be prolonged Construct the AE schedule The Aggregate Expenditure Schedule (AE) The AE refers to the relationship between AE and GDP (Y) AE = C + I + G + (X - IM) It tells you what the total spending is at different income Y level The AE function AE= C+I+G+X-IM AE C+I+G C+I C X-IM G I 0 Y (GDP) The AE function AE AE 7500 AE0 0 Y0 8000 Y (GDP) The 45 degree line Property Any point on the 45 degree line has the equal distance to the vertical axis and horizontal axis. The 45 degree line AE= Y AE AE1 45 degree 0 Y1 Y (GDP) Graphical illustration of the Keynesian Equilibrium It is the intersection of the AE line and the 45 degree line. Keynesian equilibrium AE=Y $ AE 0 Y* Y The Determination of Equilibrium Output Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Income-Expenditure Diagram Output exceeds spending 7,200 45° AE=C+I+G+ (X-IM) 6,800 6600 Real Expenditure 6,400 E 6,000 Equilibrium 5,600 5400 5,200 4,800 0 Spending exceeds output 4,800 5,200 5,600 6,000 6,400 6,800 7,200 Real GDP Equation form for the Keynesian equilibrium A Model Economy is described as follows: C = 100 + 0.9 DI I = 150 G = 200 X - IM = -50 T=0 Solve for the Keynesian equilibrium Y* Equation form for the Keynesian equilibrium Consumption function C = 100 + 0.9 DI Assume T = 0 C = 100 + 0.9 (Y - T) = 100 + 0.9 Y I = 150 G = 200 X - IM = -50 Approach Solve for the equilibrium level Y* Find the AE schedule equation Utilize the equilibrium condition, AE =Y Solve for the equilibrium Y: Y* Step 1 Add together to get AE, AE = C + I + G + X - IM AE = 100 + 0.9 Y + 150 + 200 - 50 = 400 + 0.9 Y Step 2 Using the Keynesian equilibrium condition Y = AE = 400 + 0.9 Y Step 3 Solve for equilibrium Y: Y* = 1/(1-0.9) X 400 = 10 X 400 = 4000 Potential GDP Yp versus Demand-side equilibrium Y* Potential GDP, Yp, is the full employment GDP Y* does not have to equal Yp Y* < Yp: recessionary gap. – Why a prolonged recessionary gap? Y* > Yp: inflationary gap. Recessionary Gap AE=Y $ AE Recessionary gap 0 Y* Yp Y Recessionary gap Y* < Yp: recessionary gap. Recessionary Gap: when the Keynesian equilibrium output is less than potential GDP Implies prolonged high unemployment Implies a prolonged recession Why prolonged? Inflationary Gap AE=Y $ AE Inflationary gap 0 Yp Y* Y
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