2 Derry Township Demographics 2.1 The Region Derry Township, Dauphin County is part of the Harrisburg-Carlisle Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which as of the 2010 Census contained a population of 549,475 people. Derry Township is in the far eastern portion of the MSA and borders that of the Lebanon MSA to the east. The Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA contains three counties in the region, Dauphin, Cumberland and Perry. Dauphin County is the most populous county in the Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA with Perry County being the least populous. The Township is bordered to the north by East Hanover Township, to the northwest by Hummelstown Borough, and South Hanover Township, to the west by Swatara and Lower Swatara Townships, to the southwest by Londonderry Township, to the south by Conewago Township and to the east by Lebanon County. The Township contains approximately 17,000 acres of land or 26.56 square miles. Of this land, over 5,000 acres are owned by the private Hershey entities (Hershey School Trust, Milton S. Hershey School, Hershey Entertainment and Resorts Company and The Hershey Company). Dauphin County Tax Assessment records has approximately 550 acres of land in the Township as being owned by the Penn State Milton S. Hershey Medical Center. The aforementioned are some of the largest employers in the region with the Penn State Milton S. Hershey Medical Center employing 8,850 people, the Hershey Entertainment and Resorts Company employing 7,500 people and The Hershey Company employing 6,500 people, according to data collected by the Harrisburg Regional Chamber and Capital Region Economic Development Corporation (CREDC) in 2011. 2.2 Population Trends As of the 2010 census, the population of Derry Township is 24,679 people, up 16.01% from 21,273 people during the 2000 census. Derry Township is the most populous Township of the immediately surrounding municipalities and is the third most populous municipality in Dauphin County, behind Harrisburg City and Lower Paxton Township. Table 1 below shows a comparison of population growth trends for Derry Township, the immediately adjacent municipalities, the Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA and the State from 1960 to 2010. Over the past 20 years, Derry Township’s growth rate has remained nearly steady at an average of 15.785%, up substantially from 1.62% between 1980 and 1990. This growth rate is considerably higher than both the State and the Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA and is also the highest average growth rate between 1990 and 2010 of any surrounding municipality in Dauphin County. With the latest Census, the population density (people per square mile) of Derry Township is 929.18, which is the second highest density of the surrounding municipalities, behind Swatara Township, which contains a population density of 1,600 people per square mile. Table 1 - Population Trends 1960-2010 Area Pennsylvania Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA* Derry Township East Hanover Township Hummelstown Borough South Hanover Township Swatara Township Lower Swatara Township Londonderry Township Conewago Township 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Change 19801990 11,305,093 371,653 12,388 1,535 4,474 1,841 14,795 4,508 3,053 1,353 11,798,876 410,505 15,452 2,938 4,723 2,689 17,178 5,267 3,453 1,124 11,864,904 447,660 18,115 3,574 4,267 4,046 18,796 6,772 5,138 2,471 11,881,643 474,242 18,408 4,569 3,981 4,626 19,661 7,072 4,926 2,832 12,281,054 509,074 21,273 5,322 4,360 4,793 22,661 8,149 5,224 2,847 12,702,379 549,475 24,679 5,718 4,538 6,248 23,362 8,268 5,235 2,997 16,739 26,582 293 995 -286 580 865 300 -212 361 % Change 19801990 0.14% 5.94% 1.62% 27.84% -6.70% 14.34% 4.60% 4.43% -4.13% 14.61% Change 19902000 399,411 34,832 2,865 753 379 167 3,000 1,077 298 15 % Change 19902000 3.36% 7.34% 15.56% 16.48% 9.52% 3.61% 15.26% 15.23% 6.05% 0.53% Change 20002010 421,325 40,401 3,406 396 178 1,455 701 119 11 150 Source - U.S. Census Bureau; Tri-County Regional Planning Commission *Note - Up until the 2000 Census, the Lebanon MSA was part of the Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA. The population for Lebanon County which encompasses the Lebanon MSA has been deducted from the populatio totals for the Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA from 1960-2000. 2.3 Social Characteristics 2.3.1 Age Composition Table 2 below shows the age composition of the Township for the 1990, 2000 and 2010 census years. The School Age Group in the Township has experienced significant rises in population totals since 1990; those children between the ages of 10 and 14 have increased in population by more than 88% since the 2000 census. This difference is likely due to the way students at the Milton S. Hershey School were counted between censuses. School enrollment numbers at the Derry Township School District, which are discussed later in this Chapter, do not reflect any significant variations in student population since the 2000 Census. As a result of the increased number of school-aged children, there are two anomalies in the age demographics for Derry Township. The first anomaly is that the Township has a substantially higher percentage of it’s population (30.1%) in the School Age group than any other municipality in the surrounding region, with South Hanover Township being the second highest at 27.7%. The second anomaly is that the median age of Derry Township has decreased, defying national trends for an aging population. Despite the decrease in the median age for the Township, the other age group that has experienced increases since 1990 is the Mature Adult Population consisting of those between the ages of 45-64. The increases in this age group are quite common across the region as the “Baby Boomer” generation is quickly approaching retirement age. The increasing population in this age group will undoubtedly cause implications for local planning efforts, not just in Derry Township, but also across the region. An aging population will cause increased demand for specialized services relating to healthcare, recreational needs and public transit options. Fortunately, with a mix of housing types and access to high quality healthcare, Derry Township may be ahead than most in ensuring this age group has sufficient services that are accessible. Conversations on housing supply and demand, mobility and connectivity improvements and provisions for adequate public services should consider the trends for an aging population. Lastly, two age groups, the Young Adult population and the Senior populations have experienced a decline in the percentage of population totals since the 2000 census, with the exception of those between the age of 20-24. The increase in this age group may be indicative of national trends, which have shown populations in this age group increasing over time, as a growing number of college graduates are moving back home. It may also be partly due to the student housing on the Penn State Hershey Medical campus. Even with the Young Adult population trending toward a declining percentage of the total population of the Township, Derry Township still has the third highest percentage of Young Adults in the region (28.4%), with Hummelstown Borough and Swatara Township having a higher percentage at 25.0% and 36.1% respectively. Implications of a continued decline in the Young Adult population may include a declining birth rate since this is the primary childbearing years for most persons. It may also lead to a declining housing market since this is the age when many couples purchase and improve houses to meet the needs of their growing families. Plans for future land uses, particularly housing, should include a discussion on providing adequate “entry level” housing for the Young Adult population. It should be noted that recent housing trends in the Township, have been to provide for more multi-family housing units such as townhouses and apartments that may be more conducive to purchase by younger families and single professionals. As for the Senior population, although it has declined from the past two censuses, Derry Township has the second highest percentage of residents in the Senior age class in the surrounding region at 15.3% of the population, behind only Lower Swatara Township which is at 15.4% of their population. The percentage of individuals classified as Seniors is likely to increase over the next 10-20 years as the baby boomer generation continues to age. Table 2 - Age Composition of Derry Township by Decennial Census Age Groups Total Population 1990 Population Percent Percent of Age 2000 of Age Cohort Population Cohort Total Total 18,408 21,273 2010 Population Percent of Age Cohort Total 24,679 Change 1990-2000 Change 2000-2010 # % # % School Age Group Under 5 Age 5-9 Age 10-14 Age 15-19 4,115 1,037 1,052 1,006 1,020 22.35 5.63 5.71 5.47 5.54 5,194 1,116 1,393 1,499 1,186 24.42 5.25 6.55 7.05 5.58 7,428 1,198 1,798 2,201 2,231 30.10 4.85 7.29 8.92 9.04 1,079 79 341 493 166 26.22 7.62 32.41 49.01 16.27 2,234 82 405 702 1,045 43.01 7.35 29.07 46.83 88.11 Young Adult Population Age 20-24 Age 25-34 Age-35-44 7,205 1,371 2,994 2,840 39.14 7.45 16.26 15.43 7,157 1,018 2,699 3,440 33.64 4.79 12.69 16.17 7,026 1,302 2,704 3,020 28.47 5.28 10.96 12.24 -48 -353 -295 600 -0.67 -25.75 -9.85 21.13 -131 284 5 -420 -1.83 27.90 0.19 -12.21 Mature Adult Population Age 45-54 Age 55-59 Age 60-64 3,930 2,002 950 978 21.35 10.88 5.16 5.31 5,009 3,043 1,083 883 23.55 14.30 5.09 4.15 5,631 3,391 1,287 953 22.82 13.74 5.21 3.86 1,079 1,041 133 -95 27.46 52.00 14.00 -9.71 622 348 204 70 12.42 11.44 18.84 7.93 Senior Population Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85 and Over 3,158 1,775 1,045 338 17.16 9.64 5.68 1.84 3,913 1,776 1,534 603 18.39 8.35 7.21 2.83 3,537 1,590 1,351 596 14.33 6.44 5.47 2.42 755 1 489 265 23.91 0.06 46.79 78.40 -376 -186 -183 -7 -9.61 -10.47 -11.93 -1.16 Median Age Source: U.S. Census Bureau 40.2 38.3 2.3.2 Gender Composition Table 3 below shows the gender composition for Derry Township over the past three censuses. The trends have been for a slight decline in the percentage of females as compared to the total number of males in the Township. Should trends continue towards a more significant decline in the number of females as compared to males, the Township could experience a further decline in annual birth rates. However, Derry Township still contains the highest ratio of females to males as compared to the immediately surrounding municipalities. Table 3 - Gender Composition of Derry Township 1990 2000 2010 Census Census Census 47.1% 47.3% 47.5% Male 52.9% 52.7% 52.5% Female Source - U.S. Census Bureau 2.3.3 Race and Ethnicity Table 4 below indicates the composition of the Township’s population by race. The population of the Township has become more diverse over the past 20 years, with significant increases in the African American (4.55%) and Asian communities (7.54%). The percentage of the Black or African American population in the Township is lower than the 10.8% of the State population and the 10.2% of the Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA; however, the percentage of the Asian population is significantly higher than the 2.7% of the State and the 2.9% of the Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA. Table 4 - Race Characteristics of Derry Township by Decennial Census 1990 % of 2000 % of 2010 % of Race Population Population Population Population Population Population 18,408 21,273 24,679 17,711 96.21 19,710 92.65 20,898 84.68 White 251 1.36 355 1.67 1,122 4.55 Black or African American 14 0.08 15 0.07 42 0.17 American Indian 376 2.04 843 3.96 1,861 7.54 Asian 0 0.00 5 0.02 11 0.04 Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander* 56 0.30 92 0.43 281 1.14 Other 0 0.00 253 1.19 464 1.88 Two Or More Races* Source - U.S. Census Bureau *Data for Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander and Two or More Races was not collected until the 2000 Census. Change 19902000 # % 1,999 11.29 104 41.43 1 7.14 467 124.20 5 N/A 36 64.29 253 N/A The Hispanic or Latino population has also experienced population increases from the 2000 census. In 2000, there were 297 residents that identified themselves as Hispanic or Latino, or 1.4% of the Township’s population. In 2010, this number increased to 733 residents or 3.0% of the Township’s population. This number is less than the 4.7% of the Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA and the 5.7% of the State. Change 20002010 # 1,188 767 27 1,018 6 189 211 2.3.4 Educational Attainment and School Enrollment Table 5 below shows the data estimates for educational attainment for those residents in the Township that are 25 years of age or older. Derry Township has a significantly lower percentage of adults with no high school diploma than the County and State estimated numbers and a significantly higher estimated number of adults that have earned Bachelors and/or Graduate degrees. Compared to the 2000 census, the estimates of the 2011 American Community Survey (ACS) indicate a decreasing amount of people with no high school diploma, down to 5.7% from 8.7%. This is a substantial change when considering that during the last Comprehensive Plan, the 1980 census indicated that the percentage of persons 25 years of age or older with no high school diploma was at 22.7%. The ACS estimated that the amount of those earning a bachelors degree have remained nearly unchanged from 2000 with 23.2% of the Township’s population over 25 obtaining a bachelor’s degree. The estimates also indicate that 18.6% of the sampled population obtains a graduate degree which is a decrease from 22.6% during the 2000 census. Such a decrease may be due to economic factors such as a reduced job market and increased college costs. Nonetheless, the estimated numbers reflect higher education levels than the County, MSA and the State. Higher education levels would be indicative of a highly skilled workforce, which is important for the individual to be competitive in the job market and for providing increased opportunity for economic security. A highly skilled workforce is also better for the community by improving employment and economic conditions in the Township. Table 5 - Educational Attainment by Region for Persons 25 Years or Older Estimated Estimated % with High Estimate % with Estimate % with Estimated % with No Population 25 School Diploma or Bachelors Graduate High School Diploma Years or Over Higher Degree Degrees 16,830 5.7% 94.3% 23.2% 18.6% Derry Township 183,266 11.0% 89.0% 17.0% 10.6% Dauphin County 376,951 10.3% 89.7% 17.8% 10.8% Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA 8,662,492 11.7% 88.3% 16.5% 10.4% Pennsylvania Source - U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2011 American Community Survey The Pennsylvania Department of Education reports that the enrollment of the Derry Township School District was 3,596 students on October 1 of the 2010-2011 school year. This is up 132 students from the enrollment that was reported by the Department on October 1 of the 2004-2005 school year. This increase represents a 3.8% increase from 2004-2005. The Department of Education utilizes birthrate statistics from the Pennsylvania Department of Health to project school populations through the 2020-2021 school year. The projections provide for a peak enrollment in 2014-2015 of 3,681 students before the anticipated school populations begin to fall back to 3,540 students by the 2020-2021 school year. These projections are indicative of a declining birth rate for the Township. While populations and projections for school enrollment numbers do not appear to indicate a necessity for increased educational services, it is important to consider the impacts on the public schools in the event of any changes to zoning or to densities of residential development. Maintaining the quality of education remains a priority for many residents as evident in the comments provided in the community survey. 2.3.5 Employment and Income Table 6 below shows the characteristics of the Derry Township labor force and the distribution of the labor force among specified industries during the 2000 census. The fields of industry that employ the most people in the Township are the educational and health services, manufacturing and the arts and entertainment industries. The percentage of individuals employed in the educational and health services industry was much higher than the State average of 21.9% and the County average of 19.0%. Similarly, the amount of people employed in the arts and entertainment industry was higher than both the State average of 7.0% and the County average of 7.3%. While the percentage of people employed in the manufacturing industry was higher than the County’s average of 11.1%, it was slightly below the State average of 16.0%. The 2011 estimates by the ACS indicate the labor force of the Township has grown since 2000, to approximately 12,466 people. It is also estimated that the unemployment levels have increased in 2011 to 3.5%, which would be up from 1.4% in 2000. The estimated unemployment rate for the Township is significantly lower than the 7.8% unemployment rate of the State and the 7.5% unemployment rate for the County, which was reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in October of 2012. The size of a communities labor force and its distribution by industry are both important factors when planning for future land uses and economic development. Market conditions are heavily dependent on available labor and a steady consumer market. Derry Township’s proximity to the Harrisburg and Lebanon metro areas, to major transportation arteries (including rail), a vibrant tourism industry and a major university medical center will ensure future growth in the educational and health services and the arts and entertainment industries. The manufacturing industry, while remaining an important sector in the Township labor force, may not see the growth of the prior two industries, as the national trends for manufacturing jobs have decreased with technological advances and outsourcing of certain jobs which ultimately creates less demand for physical labor. Table 6 - Labor Force and Occupation Characteristics Labor Force Percent of Population Population Total Population 16 Years or Older 17,028 In Labor Force Civilian Labor Force Employed Unemployed Armed Forces Not in Labor Force 10,349 60.78 10,334 10,098 236 60.69 59.30 1.39 15 6,679 0.09 39.22 Educational, Health & Social Services 3,345 33.13 Manufacturing 1,432 14.18 962 9.53 837 779 8.29 7.71 652 6.46 587 5.81 383 3.79 380 3.76 Construction 323 3.20 Wholesale Trade 266 2.63 Information 139 1.38 13 0.13 Industry of Occupation Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, Accomodation and Food Services Retail Trade Professional, Scientific, Management, Administrative and Waste Management Services Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Rental & Leasing Public Administration Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Other Services (Except Public Admin.) Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting and Mining Source - U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census Table 7 below indicates the median household incomes for the region as of the 2000 census and the 2011 estimated median household income. The median household income can be described as taking the residents in each of the income groups, and distributing them into two equal groups, those below the median household income and those above it. The median household income for Derry Township is not the highest in the region, but was still 26% higher than the County median household income and 30.7% higher than the State median household income as of the 2000 census. It is estimated that in 2011, the median household income increased by 23.8% to $64,728; this increase has been outpaced by the estimated increases for both the State and County median household income levels; however, this increase is higher than the national trends in the same period. Table 8 below shows the 2000 census figures and 2011 estimates for household income distribution in the Township. Table 7 - Median Household Income Municipality 2000 Census Derry Township Hummelstown Borough East Hanover Township South Hanover Township Swatara Lower Swatara Township Londonderry 2011 ACS Estimates $52,290 $50,572 $52,009 $64,010 $40,421 $64,728 $58,600 $61,979 $83,370 $54,683 $48,940 $71,178 $42,804 Township Conewago Township $58,922 $41,507 Dauphin County $40,016 Pennsylvania Source - U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2011 American Community Survey $54,662 $85,875 $53,771 $51,651 Table 8 - Household Income Distribution 2000 Census Total Households Less than $10,000 $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $199,999 Greater than $200,000 Percent of Households 8,872 496 401 798 1,063 1,405 1,783 1,078 1,064 312 472 5.6% 4.5% 9.0% 12.0% 15.8% 20.1% 12.2% 12.0% 3.5% 5.3% 2011 ACS Percent of Households Estimates 9,769 526 5.4% 358 3.7% 669 6.8% 980 10.0% 1,238 12.7% 1,768 18.1% 1,174 12.0% 1,394 14.3% 551 5.6% 1,111 11.4% Source - U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2011 American Community Survey Table 8 above indicates that the percentage of upper income groups is growing whereas the lower and middle-income groups are decreasing. Similar trends are seen in the income distributions of the County, State and national level. These trends typically suggest that income growth is occurring more rapidly in the upper income groups than it is in the lower. While income in the Township is increasing, the Consumer Pricing Index has outpaced it over the same time period as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This would suggest that purchasing power of households hasn’t necessarily increased along with income levels because we are spending more on such items as food, fuel and other necessities. 2.3.6 2.3.6.1 Housing Characteristics Households Derry Township contains 10,267 total housing units as of the 2010 Census. This is up from 8,164 housing units in the 1990 census and 9,481 in the 2000 census. Table 9 below shows the household characteristics of the Township. During the census, households are split into two categories, family households and non-family households. The Census Bureau defines a family household as being a household that contains at least one person present that is related to the householder by birth, marriage or adoption. A non-family household may either be a single person or may be households that have multiple people residing in the house that are not related. Group quarters, such as student housing complexes or nursing homes are not included in household characteristics. Table 9 - Household Characteristics for Derry Township Household Type 1990 Census # % Total Households 7,703 Family Households 5,083 66.0% With own children under 18 Husband-wife family 4,363 56.6% With own children under 18 Female householder, no husband 542 7.0% With own children under 18 Non-family Households 2,620 34.0% Householder living alone 2,209 28.7% Householder 65 years or older 861 11.2% Households with Individuals Under 18 Households with Individuals Over 65 Average Household Size 2.33 Average Family Size Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Census # % 8,861 5,690 64.2% 2,258 25.5% 4,835 54.6% 2,055 23.2% 623 7.0% 356 4.0% 3,171 35.8% 2,695 30.4% 1,114 12.6% 2,642 29.8% 2,526 28.5% 2.32 2.92 2010 Census # % 9,637 5,954 61.8% 2,697 28.0% 4,921 51.1% 2,120 22.0% 737 7.6% 424 4.4% 3,683 38.2% 3,043 31.6% 1,223 12.7% 2,832 29.4% 2,738 28.4% 2.33 2.98 2000-2010 Change # % 776 8.8% 264 4.6% 439 19.4% 86 1.8% 65 3.2% 114 18.3% 68 19.1% 512 16.1% 348 12.9% 109 9.8% 190 7.2% 212 8.4% Similar to state and national trends, the percentage of family households has been decreasing since 1990. Non-family households are increasing in the Township, which is also consistent with state and national trends. The average household size of the Township is 2.33 people, which is a decrease since the 1980 Census when at that time the average household size was 2.53 people. Over the past 20 years, the average household size has remained consistent at 2.32 and 2.33 individuals. National trends are showing average household size decreasing as more and more people are living alone or in nontraditional family households. As the baby boomer generation continues to age, the Township could continue to experience similar trends of a decreasing household size. 2.3.6.2 Housing Stock Housing construction in the Township peaked in the 1970’s and again in the 1990’s. The number of housing units constructed in 2000 to 2010 declined to the lowest levels since prior to 1960. Chart 1 below shows housing construction trends in the Township by decade. These trends differ slightly compared to the State and County, which both saw peak building in the 1950’s and 1970’s. Similarly to the Township, the County and State have both experienced a decline in housing construction since 2000. 1434 1500 1000 1925 1887 2000 1622 1518 909 972 Total Housing Units 500 0 1939 or Earlier 19401959 19601969 19701979 19801989 19901999 20002010 Chart 1 – Housing Construction in Derry Township; Source - U.S. Census Bureau & Derry Township With the exception to Hummelstown Borough, the housing tenure rates show a significantly higher rate of rental occupied housing in the Township when compared to the surrounding municipalities. As of the 2010 census, Derry Township contained 3,556 rental units, or about 36.9% of the Township’s housing stock. The next highest rate is in Swatara Township with approximately 29.9% of their housing stock being rental occupied units. The percentage of rental occupied housing units in the Township is also higher than the County, which is at 35.6%. Of the 10,267 housing units in the Township, 9,637 of the units are occupied which equates to a housing occupancy rate of 93.9%. Both Derry Township and South Hanover Township have the same occupancy rate, which is slightly less than the other surrounding municipalities. This may indicate that the demand for new housing in Derry Township is less than the surrounding region. However, this rate is higher than the County average, which has an occupancy rate at 91.7%. Overall, homeowners and rental occupancy rates have both increased since 2000. This is a sign that the housing market in the Township is relatively strong and has thus far endured the economic recession. The United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) defines affordable housing as a household that pays no higher than 30% of their annual income on housing costs. As of the 2000 census, there were 3,226 owner occupied housing units with a mortgage and 3,303 occupied rental units in the Township. Approximately 23.4% of the owner occupied households and 30.9% of renters spent greater than 30% of their annual household income on housing costs. These residents would be considered economically burdened using the HUD definition for affordable housing. In 2011, the American Community Survey (ACS) estimated the median home value for the Township was approximately $243,700. With the exception to South Hanover Township, which is estimated to contain a similar median home value, this is substantially higher than the surrounding region. The same ACS survey estimates that the median home value for the County is significantly lower than Derry Township at $157,400. Approximately 26% of the respondents to the community survey expressed that the high cost of housing in the Township is a primary concern. With these concerns in mind, limited affordable housing opportunities may be playing a role in the increased rental market in the Township by creating barriers for renters to move towards home ownership. Providing housing choice will be a priority issue moving forward with this Plan. 2.4 Population Projections **This Section is to be filled out once complete information is received from TriCounty Planning Commission.
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