Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Toward Generic Software Tools for Computing Optimal Policies in Nonlinear DSGE Models With Occasionally Binding Constraints Gary S. Anderson [email protected] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Division of Monetary Affairs Society for Computational Economics 18th International Conference Computing in Economics and Finance Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Outline 1 Introduction 2 Authors 3 Abstract Classes 4 Summary 5 Bibliography Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Outline 1 Introduction 2 Authors 3 Abstract Classes 4 Summary 5 Bibliography Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints Increased interest in solving models with constraints that occasionally bind multi-sector models with limits on inter-sectoral mobility of factors heterogeneous agent models with constraints on financial assets available to agents macro models with a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates Long history of researchers developing and applying a variety of strategies Challenging problems. Even without constraints must work with approximations Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography An Example As a concrete example(Christiano & Fisher, 2000) studied a simple stochastic growth model with irreversible investment. max E0 ∞ X β t U(ct ) t=0 with ct + e kt+1 − (1 − δ)e kt ≤ f (kt , θt ) ≡ e (θt +αkt ) and gross investment non-negative e kt+1 − (1 − δ)e kt ≥ 0 They provided several equation systems characterizing a solution Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Policy and Lagrange Multiplier Functions Find time invariant functions g , h such that given Z R(k, θ; g , h) = Uc (k, g (k, θ), θ) − h(k, θ) − β m(g (k, θ), θ0 ; g , h)pθ (θ0 |θ)dθ0 then m(k 0 , θ0 ; g , h) = Uc (k 0 , g (k 0 , θ0 , θ0 )[fk (k 0 , θ0 ) + 1 − δ] − h(k 0 , θ0 )(1 − δ) ≥ 0 R(k, θ; g , h) = 0 e g (k,θ) − (1 − δ)e k ≥ 0, h(k, θ) ≥ 0 h(k, θ)[e g (k,θ) − (1 − δ)e k ] = 0 Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography A Parameterized Expectations Solution The following is one of several PEA solutions in(Christiano & Fisher, 2000). Find γ such that R̄(k, θ; γ) = 0 where R̄(k, θ; γ) = e γ(k,θ) Z − m(g (k, θ), θ0 ; g , h)pθ (θ0 |θ)dθ0 with g , h implicitly defined by Uc (k, ḡ (K , θ), θ) = βe γ(k,θ) with ( g (k, θ) = ḡ (k, θ) log(1 − δ) + k Anderson if ḡ (k, θ) > log(1 − δ) + k otherwise Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Some Authors Providing Down-loadable Code (Haefke, 1998) FORTRAN, Gauss, MATLAB (Maliar & Maliar, 2005a; Maliar & Maliar, 2005b)MATLAB (Aruoba et al., 2006)FORTRAN90, MATLAB (Carroll, 2006) Mathematica, MATLAB. (Adam & Billi, 2006; Adam & Billi, 2007; Billi, 2007)MATLAB (Nakov, 2008) MATLAB (Hintermaier & Koeniger, 2010) MATLAB (Fella, 2011) FORTRAN95 (Gordon, 2011) MATLAB (Fernndez-Villaverde et al., 2012)FORTRAN90 (Iskhakov et al., 2012)MATLAB Presented yesterday at this conference Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Some Authors Providing Algorithms Only (Marcet & Marshall, 1994) (Krusell et al., 1997) (Christiano & Fisher, 2000) (Grüne & Semmler, 2004) (Dennis, 2007) (Benigno et al., 2009) (Brumm & Grill, 2010) (Judd et al., 2010) (Marcet & Marimon, 2011) (Malin et al., 2011) (Ludwig & Schön, 2012) Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Generic Algorithm Policy Function/ Lagrange Multiplier Parameterized Expectations 1 Choose a function approximation method 2 Choose a metric for judging approximation quality 3 Guess parameters characterizing functions solving the equation system Use equation system to generate an improved guess 4 identify strategic ordering of subsets of the equation system to facilitate solution identify function evaluation points compute expected values solve for new parameters characterizing functions 5 If functions changed significantly repeat 4 Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Little Apparent Code Reuse Very limited code reuse Notable exception – several authors use the COMPECON tools(Miranda & Fackler, 2002) Down-loadable code typically written in very model specific ways Similarities in goals and methods hidden by idiosyncratic model differences and coding conventions Author’s with algorithmic innovations typically chose to build a complete DSGE solution framework Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Benefits from Interchangeable Components Interchangeable components would facilitate experimentation with alternative algorithmic designs Instrumented with timers and memory monitors, could help guide production code development Design patterns(Gamma et al., 1995) Template Method Define the skeleton of an algorithm in an operation, deferring some steps to subclasses. Template Method lets subclasses redefine certain steps of an algorithm without changing the algorithm’s structure. Strategy Define a family of algorithms, encapsulate each one, and make them interchangeable. Strategy lets the algorithm vary independently from clients that use it. Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components Outline 1 Introduction 2 Authors 3 Abstract Classes 4 Summary 5 Bibliography Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components Outline 1 Introduction 2 Authors Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components Function Approximation Approximation Metric Evaluation Points Expectations 3 Abstract Classes Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components (Christiano & Fisher, 2000) The Generic Algorithm Component Function Approximation Approximation Metric Evaluation Points Expectations Implementation Chebyshev Polynomials; Finite element piecewise linear Approximation Parameter Fixed Point; Galerkin and Collocation variants of Weighted Residuals Chebyshev Nodes Gaussian quadrature, Monte Carlo Integration Implemented several PEA variants Piecewise linear approximation methods for policy function iteration (PFI) Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components Outline 1 Introduction 2 Authors Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components Function Approximation Approximation Metric Evaluation Points Expectations 3 Abstract Classes Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components (Miranda & Fackler, 2002) The authors provide down-loadable MATLAB code for solving f [st , xt , Et h(st+1 , xt+1 )] = φt where st+1 = g (st , xt , t+1 ) and a(st ) ≤ xt ≤ b(st ), xjt > aj (st ) ⇒ φjt ≤ 0, xjt < bj (st ) ⇒ φjt ≥ 0, Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components (Billi, 2011) The Generic Algorithm Component Function Approximation Approximation Metric Evaluation Points Expectations Implementation piecewise linear Approximated Function at Nodes Fixed Point; Collocation; Time Iteration uniform grid Gaussian quadrature performs policy function iteration (PFI) Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components (Nakov, 2008) The Generic Algorithm Component Function Approximation Approximation Metric Evaluation Points Expectations Implementation piecewise linear Approximation parameter point uniform grid Gaussian Quadrature fixed performs policy function iteration (PFI) Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components Outline 1 Introduction 2 Authors Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components Function Approximation Approximation Metric Evaluation Points Expectations 3 Abstract Classes Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components The Endogenous Grid Method (EGM) The Generic Algorithm Originally developed in (Carroll, 2006) – Mathematica and MATLAB code available. Extended to perform value function iteration by (Barillas & Fernandez-Villaverde, 2007) – Fortran90 code available. (Krueger & Ludwig, 2007; Rendahl, 2006) show that time iteration, nesting EGM, is often applicable and useful Applied to a model with occasionally binding constraints in (Hintermaier & Koeniger, 2010) – MATLAB code Extended to a class of non-concave problems in (Fella, 2011; Iskhakov et al., 2012) – Fortran95 and MATLAB code available. Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components (Barillas & Fernandez-Villaverde, 2007) The Generic Algorithm Component Function Approximation Approximation Metric Evaluation Points Expectations Implementation Piecewise linear Approximated Function Fixed Point at Nodes uniform grid Tauchen –41 discrete statesa a Adapted from code for (Ljungqvist & Sargent, 2004; Miranda & Fackler, 2002) Extends EGM to value function iteration (VFI) Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components (Fella, 2011) The Generic Algorithm Component Function Approximation Approximation Metric Evaluation Points Expectations a Implementation Piecewise linear Approximated Function at Nodes Fixed Point 7 Uniformly spaced points for discrete durable; double exponential grid for assets Tauchen – 49 discrete statesa Adapted from code for (Barillas & Fernandez-Villaverde, 2007) Extends the EGM to non-convex problems including discrete state space Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components Outline 1 Introduction 2 Authors Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components Function Approximation Approximation Metric Evaluation Points Expectations 3 Abstract Classes Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components (Judd et al., 2010) The Generic Algorithm Component Function Approximation Approximation Metric Evaluation Points Expectations Implementation Polynomial interpolation for subset of endogenous state variables. Approximated Function Fixed Point at Nodes endogenous solution domain determined by extent of ergodic set non product monomial and one point quadrature rules. Gaussian quadrature for accuracy tests. Cluster Grid approach chooses grid points endogenously based on the extent of ergodic set Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components (Brumm & Grill, 2010) The Generic Algorithm Component Function Approximation Approximation Metric Evaluation Points Expectations Implementation Piecewise linear – Adaptive Simplicial Interpolation (ASI) Approximated Function Fixed Point at Nodes Uniform grid augmented with endogenously determined grids points at function kinks Discrete Markov Process Adaptive Simplicial Interpolation endogenously places grid points at “kinks” and uses Delaunay interpolation Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components (Fernndez-Villaverde et al., 2012) The Generic Algorithm Component Function Approximation Approximation Metric Evaluation Points Expectations Implementation Smolyak Projections and Interpolation; Complete polynomials Selected Approximated Function Value at Node points Time Iteration guess at collocation point. use them as t+1 functions to compute time t functions, repeat till no change Smolyak points One of a number of authors using Smolyak points along with complete polynomials Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components Outline 1 Introduction 2 Authors Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components Function Approximation Approximation Metric Evaluation Points Expectations 3 Abstract Classes Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components Function Approximation Components The Generic Algorithm Chebyshev Polynomials(Christiano & Fisher, 2000) Generic Polynomial interpolation(Judd et al., 2010) Finite element piecewise linear(Christiano & Fisher, 2000; Billi, 2011; Nakov, 2008; Fella, 2011; Barillas & Fernandez-Villaverde, 2007) Piecewise linear Adaptive Simplicial Interpolation (ASI)(Brumm & Grill, 2010) Smolyak Projections and Interpolation; Complete polynomials(Fernndez-Villaverde et al., 2012) Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components Approximation Metric The Generic Algorithm Approximation Parameter Fixed Point Galerkin(Christiano & Fisher, 2000) Approximation Parameter Fixed Point Collocation (Fella, 2011) Approximated Function at Nodes Fixed Point; Collocation (Billi, 2011; Nakov, 2008; Barillas & Fernandez-Villaverde, 2007; Judd et al., 2010; Brumm & Grill, 2010) Selected Approximated Function Value at Node points(Fernndez-Villaverde et al., 2012) Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components Evaluation Points The Generic Algorithm Endogenous grid points(Carroll, 2006; Barillas & Fernandez-Villaverde, 2007; Krueger & Ludwig, 2007; Rendahl, 2006; Hintermaier & Koeniger, 2010; Fella, 2011) Smolyak points(Fernndez-Villaverde et al., 2012) Uniform grid(Billi, 2011; Nakov, 2008) Uniform grid augmented with endogenously determined grids points at function kinks(Brumm & Grill, 2010) Chebyshev Points(Christiano & Fisher, 2000) Cluster grid points determined by estimate of ergodic set(Judd et al., 2010) Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Parametrized Expectations Algorithms (PEAs) Miranda and Fackler Endogenous Grid Method Other Improved Grids Common Components Expectations The Generic Algorithm Discretized Tauchen Matrix Multiplication(Fella, 2011; Barillas & Fernandez-Villaverde, 2007) Gaussian Quadrature(Christiano & Fisher, 2000; Billi, 2011; Nakov, 2008) Non product monomial and one point quadrature rules(Judd et al., 2010) Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Outline 1 Introduction 2 Authors 3 Abstract Classes 4 Summary 5 Bibliography Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography A General Framework Policy Function/ Lagrange Multiplier Parameterized Expectations The Generic Algorithm Following(Hintermaier & Koeniger, 2010) First Order Conditions F(x− , y− , λ− , x0 , y0 , λ0 , x+ , y+ , λ+ , b) = 0 Equality Constraints Q(x− , y− , x0 , y0 , x+ , y+ , b) = 0 Occasionally Binding Constraints O(x− , y− , x0 , y0 , x+ , y+ , b) ≥ 0 Complementary Slackness Conditions O(x− , y− , x0 , y0 , x+ , y+ , b)Λ(x− , y− , λ− , x0 , y0 , λ0 , x+ , y+ , λ+ , b) = 0 with Λ(x− , y− , λ− , x0 , y0 , λ0 , x+ , y+ , λ+ , b) ≥ 0 Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Abstract Classes for Dynamic Models with OBCs General Framework The Generic Algorithm Object oriented implementation of the algorithms requires committing to collection of inter-operating classes Existing code provides guidance for designing classes Program data lead to fields Program operations lead to methods Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Abstract Classes for Dynamic Models with OBCs General Framework The Generic Algorithm Variable Relation StateVariable NonStateVariable LagrangeMultiplier Equation Inequality System Grid EquationSystem InequalitySystem BooleanFunction ApproximateFunction Report ValueFunction PolicyFunction CPUUsageReport MemoryUsageReport Expression Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Grid Abstract Class Tentative Example Grid Fields evaluationPts variableSpecs Grid Methods getEvaluationPts() returns list of points – abstract evaluateAtPts( Function ff) returns a list of points – abstract pointsWhereTrue( BooleanFunction qq) returns a list of points – default implemented cpuUsageReport() returns a CPUUsageReport – abstract memoryReport() returns a MemoryReport –abstract Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Outline 1 Introduction 2 Authors 3 Abstract Classes 4 Summary 5 Bibliography Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Summary Two decades of solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints Dozens of proposed solution algorithms Broadly similar structure Composed from a few common components But generally incompatible implementations Existing code and algorithms could provide guide to good API Synergy would be enhanced if components were more interchangeable Experimentation in prototyping would be useful Interoperability could facilitate experimentation and algorithm design Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Outline 1 Introduction 2 Authors 3 Abstract Classes 4 Summary 5 Bibliography Anderson Generic Tools – Occasionally Binding Constraints Introduction Authors Abstract Classes Summary Bibliography Bibliography I Adam, Klaus, & Billi, Roberto M. 2006. 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