GDT Quarterly
JUNE 2016
Global Dairy Trade provides globally recognised market-based reference prices for more than 30 dairy
ingredients products. The GDT Quarterly is an analysis of dairy ingredient products over the three-month
period covering April, May and June 2016 (Quarter 2).
Additional post-event and round-by-round data from the twice-monthly GDT Events is available by subscribing
to GDT Insight (see http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/gdt-insight/).
GDT PRICE INDEX – FIVE YEAR VIEW
•
The second quarter (Q2)
is characterised by a
steady increase in the
GDT Price Index.
GDT Price Index
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
•
By the end of the quarter,
the GDT Price Index is
nearly 11% higher than it
was at the end of Q1.
5 year
1,000
800
600
400
200
Apr-16
Oct-15
Jan-16
Jul-15
Apr-15
Oct-14
Jan-15
Jul-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Jan-14
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Jan-12
0
Oct-11
This is 3.4% higher than
the index 12 months ago.
Apr-11
•
GDT PRICE INDEX – SIX MONTH VIEW
•
Five of the six Trading
Events in Q2 2016
showed increases.
750
730
•
•
-1.6%
710
The average change in the
index per Trading Event
over Q2 was +1.8%
3.4%
-1.4%
690
0.0%
670
3.8%
-7%
+1.4%
650
This compares with the
average change of -1%
per Trading Event through
the previous Q1.
630
-3%
610
Q1
2.6%
-1.4%
2.1%
Q2
-2.9%
TE 166
Jun-16
TE 165
Jun-16
TE 164
May-16
TE 163
May-16
TE 162
Apr-16
TE 161
Apr-16
TE 160
Mar-16
TE 159
Mar-16
TE 158
Feb-16
TE 157
Feb-16
TE 156
Jan-16
TE 155
Jan-16
590
Percentages on the above chart represent the percentage change from the previous trading event.
© Copyright 2016 Global Dairy Trade Holdings Limited
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QUARTERLY PRICE CHANGES BY PRODUCT
This analysis shows the change in the quarterly and annual price indices by product group between Q2 2016
(Apr-Jun) vs Q1 2016 (Jan-Mar); and Q2 2016 v Q2 2015.
Quarterly Percentage Price Index Changes
2016 Q2 vs 2016 Q1 % Price Index Change
•
Price Indices for all
products were higher in
Q2 compared to Q1 2016.
25%
AMF
Butter
BMP
Cheddar
Lactose
Rennet
Casein
SMP
WMP
20%
•
The increase in Price
Indices between Q2 and
Q1 ranged from 6.3% for
Whole Milk Power to
23.7% for Cheddar.
15%
10%
5%
0%
•
On an annual basis,
Lactose and AMF showed
the most significant
increases with 43% and
36% respectively.
Annual Percentage Price Index Changes
2016 Q2 vs 2015 Q2 % Price Index Change
50%
•
AMF
Butter
BMP
Cheddar
Lactose
Rennet
Casein
SMP
WMP
40%
Other product groups
showed a decrease in
price indices when
compared to Q2 2015,
ranging from Skim Milk
Powder at -3%, to
Cheddar at -7.8%.
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
QUARTERLY PRODUCT GROUP COMPARISON
Product Group
Last Traded Price
(USD/MT)
Q2-2016 vs Q1-2016
Price Index % Change
Q2-2016 vs Q2-2015
Price Index %
Change
Total value traded,
last 12 months
(USD)
AMF
3619
20.1%
36.1%
255 M
Butter
2910
6.6%
6.3%
148 M
BMP
1695
10.1%
-7.0%
14 M
Cheddar
2882
23.7%
-7.8%
74 M
Lactose
754
22.2%
43.2%
5M
Rennet Casein
5116
22.1%
-21.3%
58 M
SMP
1901
9.1%
-2.9%
292 M
WMP
2118
6.3%
-3.5%
699 M
TOTAL
$1.55 BN
All information as at 16 June 2016. Last Traded Price is the weighted average price across all contract periods.
© Copyright 2016 Global Dairy Trade Holdings Limited
QUARTERLY REPORT – JUNE 2016
2
BIDDER PARTICIPATION
Participation analysis illustrates the number of bidders who placed bids, and the number who won product, in
GDT Events. Bidder participation is the number of bidders placing bids in Round 1 of a Trading Event.
•
Q2 witnessed a 5%
higher average rate of
participation per event,
compared with Q1 2016
(all product groups).
•
The average number of
winning bidders was 3%
lower over this period.
•
On average, 75% of
Participating Bidders
were successful in
winning product during
this period.
•
Consistent with
previous quarters, SMP
and WMP attracted the
highest number of
participating bidders,
134 and 127
respectively.
Product Group
AMF
Butter
BMP
Cheddar
SMP
WMP
Lactose
Rennet Casein
Number of
Participating Bidders
(Apr 2016 – Jun 2016)
99
64
33
42
134
127
24
31
Number of Winning
Bidders
(Apr 2016 – Jun 2016)
78
56
24
27
121
108
14
21
% of Participating
Bidders who won
product
79%
87%
73%
64%
90%
85%
58%
68%
3 Year Average Bidder Participation (per event)
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
This chart compares sellers’ average offer quantities with the average demand (represented by first round bids
placed). Bid ratio is the first round demand over the total quantity on offer in the auction.
•
First round demand was
22% higher in Q2 than in
the previous quarter Q1
2016.
Quantity (MT)
120,000
Quarterly Average Supply and Demand
Bid Ratio
3.5
3.0
100,000
2.5
80,000
•
Offer quantities were
down 6% in the same
timeframe.
2.0
60,000
1.5
40,000
•
Bid ratios increased
since Q1 2016,
achieving an average
bid ratio of 2.5 for Q2
versus a ratio of 1.9 for
Q1 2016.
1.0
20,000
0.5
0
0.0
2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1 2016-Q2
Quarterly average offer quantity
Quarterly average first round bidding demand
Bid ratio
GDT INSIGHT
Information contained within the GDT Insight Market Pack indicates a strengthening in number of buyers and
quantity sold to South East Asia over the last quarter, and a recent increase in SMP and Lactose sourced
from Europe. These figures and additional data is available by subscribing to any of the three packages
available from GDT Insight (see http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/gdt-insight/).
© Copyright 2016 Global Dairy Trade Holdings Limited
QUARTERLY REPORT – JUNE 2016
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