Use of emissions & other data
reported within the LRTAP
Convention in the IIASA GAINS
model
Z.Klimont ([email protected])
Center for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)
Emission Inventory Compilers and Users Workshop
13th May 2013, Istanbul, Turkey
Typical IIASA-GAINS model use
Emissions, costs
• Understanding/reproducing
reported emissions,
• Projecting emissions,
• Assessing mitigation potential,
• Calculating control costs,
• Assessing impacts and searching
for cost-optimal strategies
considering constraints/targets
Control
costs
Baseline
emissions
Mitigation
potential
• In all elements listed above we
benefit from your and other
stakeholders’ work and collaborate
with other EMEP centers
time
RAINS model
The GAINS
multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework
(Regional Acidification
Information
and Simulation)
(Greenhouse
gas and Air
pollution INteractions
and Synergies)
PM
(BC, SO2
OC)
Health impacts:
PM (Loss in life expectancy)


O3 (Premature mortality)
Vegetation damage:
O3

Acidification
Eutrophication
NOx
VOC NH3
CO









Black carbon deposition
+
-




+/- +
N2O
+
+

+
+/-
CH4

Climate impacts:
Long-term
Near-term forcing
CO2
HFCs
PFCs
SF6
-
+
+
Central question for policy makers
Example: Revision of European air quality policy
To what level should the emissions of air
pollutants be reduced in the year 2020?
– Where will emissions and effects be in 2020 without
further policies?
– What reductions are technically feasible?
– How much do they cost? – optimal/non-optimal
– Who (which countries) pays?
– How much are they willing to pay?
– Who benefits?
– Is it enough?
– Is it fair?
Scope for further environmental improvements in
the UNECE area: 4(6) effects
Expected achievements of current policy; relative to 2000
100%
Impact indicator in 2020
relative to 2000
90%
80%
70%
Closing the gap
Scope
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
YOLLs
O3 deaths
PRIMES MTFR
Acidification,
forest area
Scope for measures
Acidification,
AAE all
ecosystems
Eutrophication,
ecosystems
area
National MTFR
Eutrophication,
AAE all
ecosystems
Scope for measures
Results of GAINS analysis for TSAP (EU Thematic Strategy for Air Pollution):
Health impacts PM2.5
450
2010
Years of life lost
350
TSAP target for 2020: -47%
300
Million YOLLs
250
200
150
100
2020 CLE
50
2030 MCE
MTFR-EU
2015
Baseline
2010
MTFR-EU
2005
Baseline
2000
MTFR-EU
0
Baseline
Loss in statistical life expectancy (months)
400
2020
2020
2025
2025
2030
2030
Baseline implies ~5 months
shortening of statistical life
expectancy after 2020
Additional MTFR measures could
save ~55 million years of life of
European population
Results of GAINS analysis for TSAP (EU Thematic Strategy for Air Pollution):
NH3 reductions relative to baseline
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
-45%
Other NH3 sources
Sheep and Goats
Agricultural Waste burning
Poultry
Non-Dairy Cattle
Dairy Cattle
Pigs
Urea Fertilizer
Key measures:
• Efficient (‘low emission’) application of urea fertilizer
• Low nitrogen feed (pigs, dairy cows, poultry)
• Low emission application of livestock manures; liquid and solid
• Closed storage of manures and new low emission housing (pigs, poultry)
EU28
NETH
IREL
DENM
FINL
BULG
SWED
MALT
GREE
LATV
SLOV
ROMA
BELG
LUXE
UNKI
ESTO
CYPR
LITH
CZRE
PORT
ITAL
AUST
HUNG
POLA
FRAN
SPAI
SKRE
CROA
GERM
Emission reductions in central scenario: NH3
The GAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework
(Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies)
PM
(BC, SO2
OC)
Health impacts:
PM (Loss in life expectancy)


O3 (Premature mortality)
Vegetation damage:
O3

Acidification
Eutrophication
NOx
VOC NH3
CO









Black carbon deposition
+
-




+/- +
N2O
+
+

+
+/-
CH4

Climate impacts:
Long-term
Near-term forcing
CO2
HFCs
PFCs
SF6
-
+
+
Co-control of GHGs and air pollutants
Annex I parties of UNFCCC, 2020
Source: IIASA GAINS
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Considering co-emission of pollutants at technology level results in
different mixes (ratios) of pollutants depending on chosen strategy
Emission reduction
relative to baseline in 2030
Example: Mitigation potentials in 2030 in in two scenarios developed in UNEP (2011) study
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
-80%
-90%
-100%
CH4
Source: IIASA GAINS
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
CO
NOx
VOC
PM2.5
BC
OC
Other
PM2.5
Emission reductions from
the chosen 16 measures
all other 2000 measures
SO2
BC emissions in the EU-27, baseline,
relative change and thousand tons [total]
Source: GAINS model
100%
400
90%
350
80%
300
70%
250
60%
Other
50%
200
Transport
Domestic combustion
40%
150
30%
100
20%
50
10%
0%
0
2005
2010
2020
2030
Total
Courtesy of Jessica McCarty, Michigan Tech Research Institute
Incomplete wish list…
for discussion in the afternoon?
• National vs international databases: how to improve
consistency, e.g, non-commercial fuelwood use,
• How to improve spatial allocation of some sources, e.g.,
inland navigation
• TFEIP repository of national, often not peer-reviewed,
studies?
• More regular involvement of remote sensing and inverse
modelling community,
• Strengthen collaboration with other regional and global
inventory activities (developers and users), e.g.
MACCity, GEIA, HTAP, etc.
More details and background available from:
• General GAINS policy portal:
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/Mitigati
onofAirPollutionandGreenhousegases/Overview.en.html
– GAINS model: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
• UNECE Gothenburg Protocol revision work
– http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/gothenburg-protocolrevision
• Review of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP); towards
revision of National Emission Ceiling Directive (NECD)
– http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/tsap