XPRIMM Insurance Report FY2011
• 32 countries: CEE, SEE, CIS
• Full length statistics in EUR and national currency
on www.xprimm.com
Macroeconomic view
• CEE - 5.3% GDP growth in 2011 according IMF
• Diverging results across the region:
• Turkey and Baltics : >5% - 7%
• Bulgaria, Hungary, Czech Rep. : 1.5 – 2%
• Croatia – flat
• Common characteristics in most countries:
•
•
•
•
•
Economic slowdown in Q4
Reasonable inflation rates
Rather high unemployment rates
Weak purchasing power of the population
Low crediting activity
Macroeconomic view
• CIS - 4.5% GDP growth in 2011 according Eurasian
Development Bank (except Georgia).
• Diverging results across the region:
• Turkmenistan : 9.3%
• Russia, Ukraine, Moldova and Azerbaijan : 4 – 4.5%
• Common characteristics in most countries:
• Raising inflation rates
• High unemployment rates
• Weak purchasing power of the population
• Turkey - 7.6% GDP growth in 2011
• Greece - 4.5% GDP fall in 2011
CEE insurance market
GWP and GDP y-o-y growth rates in 2011, %
20.00
15.00
HU
12% HUF 
-13.3% GWP nominal
change in EUR
PL
12% PLN 
-5.4% GWP
nominal change in
EUR
10.00
5.00
-
-5.00
-10.00
GWP growth rate
GDP growth rate
GWP evolution depends on the GDP growth model
CEE Consolidated indicators
• GWP: EUR 31.97 billion <-> -4% nominal change
• Weighted growth rate (local currencies): +2.11%
• Paid claims: EUR 18.6 billion (Slovakia excepted)
• Insurance density: EUR 253/capita (~4% down)
1200.00
Insurance density 2011 (EUR/capita)
1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
CEE AVERAGE
EUR 253/capita
CEE Market shares
• Almost unchanged market shares
Slovenia
6%
Slovakia
7%
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Poland
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Slovakia
Slovenia
Romania
41.06  40.47

9.08  8.20
6.056.60
6.29 6.54
5.92  5.74
Romania
Bulgaria
6%
3%
Croatia
4%
Serbia
2%
Hungary
8%
Czech Republic
19%
Poland
40%
Lithuania
1%
Estonia
1%
Latvia,
Bosnia and
Herzegovina,
Macedonia
(FYROM),
Kosovo,
Montenegro
and Albania
3%
CEE Market portfolio
• Life insurance: 45.6%
• Non-life insurance : 54.5%
Hungary
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Estonia
Other non-life
ins., 10.0%
Lithuania
Slovenia
GTPL, 3.6%
Croatia
Unit-linked,
18.4%
Romania
Serbia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Property, 12.0%
Bulgaria
Other life ins.,
27.2%
MTPL, 16.9%
Montenegro
Albania
Latvia
Motor hull,
11.9%
Macedonia (FYROM)
0%
Life insurance
50%
Non-life insurance
100%
CEE Life insurance
• 45.6% of CEE portfolio (-1pp y-o-y)
• GWP: EUR 14.58 billion -> 6% y-o-y decrease
• Best dynamic: Albania (25%), Macedonia (40%)
• Worst dynamic: Latvia (-24%), Estonia (-13.8%) and
Hungary (-11%)
• Insurance lines:
• Traditional life insurance – negative trend
• Unit-Linked – positive evolution in most countries
(+1.6pp weight in CEE portfolio; +4.3pp weight in life
insurance GWP)
• Perspectives: almost no chances for reinstating or
adopting fiscal incentives
CEE Life insurance
50.00
Life insurance
dynamic 2011
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
-10.00
-20.00
-30.00
+2%
80.00
Paid claims
growth rate
70.00
60.00
+102%
+92%
+56%
UL insurance
weight in life
segment and
dynamic 2011
+73%
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
-10.00
-20.00
-30.00
PL
CZ
HU
SK
SL
RO
HR
LT
EE
UL weight in life insurance
BG
LV
CEE Property insurance
• 12% of CEE portfolio (< +1pp y-o-y)
• GWP: EUR 3.83 billion -> 2.6% y-o-y increase
• Paid claims: EUR 1.6 billion -> -28% y-o-y decrease
• Latvia and Lithuania - the only CEE countries recording
much higher property claims than in 2010
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Weight of “fire and allied perils in
line” in property segment
Damages to property
Fire and allied perils
CEE Motor insurance
•
•
•
•
29% of CEE portfolio (< -1pp y-o-y)
GWP: EUR 9.2 billion -> 5.77% y-o-y decrease
Paid claims: EUR 5.5 billion -> ~8% y-o-y decrease
Trends:
•
•
•
•
Price war – “to the limit of economic acceptability”
Increasing bodily claims
Insurance fraud
high acquisitions costs
CEE Motor insurance
3,500.00
3,000.00
2,500.00
MTPL
Motor Hull
2,000.00
1,500.00
1,000.00
500.00
-
Motor Hull: Lithuania , Latvia, Albania and Bosnia – positive dynamic
MTPL: 10 out of 17 countries, positive dynamic; Hungary, Romania,
Albania and Czech Rep. – double digit negative dynamic
CIS Consolidated indicators
• GWP: EUR 33.67 billion -> 17.5% nominal change
• Paid claims: ~EUR 22.5 billion -> 11.8% increase
• Insurance density: EUR 122/capita (~17% up)
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
CIS AVERAGE
EUR 122/capita
CIS Market shares
• Russia: > 90% share; EUR 30.4 billion GWP
• Ukraine: 4.03% share; EUR 1.4 billion GWP
• Kazakhstan: 3.07% share; EUR 1.03 billion GWP
0.65 3.07
4.13
90.34
Kyrgyzstan
Moldova
Belarus
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
Georgia
Ukraine
Turkmenistan
Azerbaijan
Russia
CIS Specificities
• Extreme diversity  hardly comparable markets
•
•
•
•
•
•
Complexity
Portfolio
Legislation
Ease of access for foreign undertakers
Affordability
Etc.
SEE: Turkey, Greece, Cyprus
•
•
•
•
Different development stages of the insurance market
Very different dimensions
Currently, very different economic trends
Turkey:
• GWP: EUR 6.9 billion – 1.9% y-o-y increase
• Life insurance – cvasi underdeveloped (15.6% weight in
portfolio)
• Motor insurance – almost 40% weight in portfolio
• Property insurance – 22% weight in portfolio
» 3.72 million mandatory policies sold by TCIP in 2011
» Less than 23% coverage of 16 million housing units
• a hot spot on the acquisitions map
A changing landscape
• PZU - preparing geographical expansion – first step, the Baltics
• TRIGLAV and SAVA Re - interested to enter new markets or
strengthen their presence in the current ones
• Vienna Insurance Group - new acquisitions in Poland and
Bosnia & Herzegovina and also intends further acquisitions in
Hungary and Moldova,
• different insurers and banks are targeting the Russian market
• big Russian players (ROSGOSSTRAKH) - expanding in the
neighboring countries
• important legislative adjustments in the young markets
• Solvency II regime – important challenge for the EU members
We wish you
successful business in
FIAR !
[email protected]
[email protected]