Understanding Emerging Events:
Reading and Reasoning Through Simulation
Andrei Barbu, Gary Borchardt and Boris Katz
MIT Computer Science and
Artificial Intelligence Laboratory
July 8, 2014
MIT
A scenario
The Freedom Brigade carried out 7 kidnappings in 2013.
The Freedom Brigade has expressed a dislike of Trifex Corporation.
Recently-intercepted communications from the Freedom Brigade suggest
a possible attack Thursday evening.
Philippe Henson is an executive at Trifex Corporation.
Philippe Henson recently hired a new security detail.
Philippe Henson's financial situation has drastically deteriorated.
Philippe Henson typically visits his cousin Olmert Lee on Thursdays.
It is 4:00pm Thursday, and Olmert Lee claims Philippe Henson is missing.
There has been a 10-hour power outage in Philippe Henson's neighborhood.
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Multiple levels of abstraction
Narratives
An update regarding the Freedom Brigade
Plans
Different ways of carrying out kidnappings
Routines
Philippe Henson typically visits Olmert Lee on Thursdays.
Actions
Philippe Henson recently hired a new security detail.
Events
A 10-hour power outage in Philippe Henson's neighborhood
Changes
Deterioration of Philippe Henson's financial situation
States
At 4:00pm Thursday, Philippe Henson is missing.
Attributes
Location, financial situation, dislike, employment
Objects
The Freedom Brigade, Philippe Henson, a neighborhood
Times
4:00pm Thursday, Thursday evening
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Progress from our ICArUS effort
Reported
actions and
events
Narratives
Plans
Routines
Actions
Events
Changes
States
Attributes
Objects
Times
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Envisioning in support of plan
recognition
postulated plan
executions
reported actions
Plan Recognition
traveling to a location
placing/retrieving an object
meeting someone
giving an object
building/detonating an IED
making a phone call
raising an alert
threatening someone
IED attack
smuggling
robbery
kidnapping
Envisioning
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Language-motivated
representation
...
appear
not appear
Actions
disappear
not disappear
change
not change
increase
not increase
decrease
not decrease
Events
Changes
for Boolean
attributes
for qualitative
attributes
for quantitative
attributes
States
Attributes
Objects
Times
being an instance of a type
being a part of an object
position of an object
speed of an object
heading of an object
distance between two objects
possession of an object by a human
use of an object by a human
interaction between two humans
control of a human by a human
being afraid
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Event models
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An IED attack
Agent-1 meets
Agent-2 at
Location-1.
0.25
Agent-2 retrieves
Explosive-Materials-1
from Location-5.
start
0.25
Agent-1 gives
IED-1 to
Agent-2.
Agent-2 builds
IED-1 using
ExplosiveMaterials-1.
Agent-2 travels
to Location-9.
0.5
0.5
Agent-2 meets
Agent-3 at
Location-7.
0.5
Agent-2 gives
IED-1 to Agent3.
0.5
IED-1 selfdetonates.
Agent-2 travels
to Location-7.
Agent-2 makes a
phone call.
Agent-3 travels
to Location-3.
Agent-3
detonates
IED-1.
0.5
Agent-3 places
IED-1 at
Location-3.
0.5
Agent-3 makes a
phone call.
0.5
end
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Envisioning two simultaneous
event occurrences
...
...
...
...
...
...
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Envisioning two sequential event
occurrences
Hypothesized

Agent-15 retrieves IED-11 from Location-15 from 11:10 to 11:20.

Agent-15 builds IED-11 using Explosive-Material-11 from 11:30
to 11:40.
Conflicts Detected

In the second event, IED-11 does not initially exist, whereas at
the end of the first event, it does.

In the second event, Agent-15 is not initially in possession of the
IED, whereas at the end of the first event, Agent-15 is in
possession of the IED.
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