Table of Contents Unit 1 – Fundamentals of Engineering Economics and the “Invest and Earn Problem” The Basic Concepts of Engineering Economics The Cash Flow Tips to Getting a Good Cash Flow The Problem of Equivalence The Rate of Return - The Basic Tool for Equivalence The Time Value of Money How are Rates of Return Determined? Calculation Tool Intermission The Mystery of the Real and Nominal Interest Rate How do I convert Nominal to Real and vis-versa? Calculation Tool Intermission Using the Rate of Return in Money Calculations Magic Numbers and Moving Money to Equivalent Amounts Meeting F/P Calculation Tool Intermission Using Unit Cancelation to Pick the Correct Magic Number FE Exam Intermission Interest Rates and Compounding Periods Step 1 – Get the period interest rate Step #2 Get the number of compounding periods for the problem Impact and use of a shorter compounding period Bankers Tricks and Yield Calculation Tool Intermission Unit 1 – Fundamentals of Engineering Economics and the “Invest and Earn Problem” The Basic Concepts of Engineering Economics This study of Engineering Economics deals with determining which projects or investments are economically desirable and which are not. As Engineers an important part of anything we design is that it represent an economically attractive investment for those who will “put up” the money needed to build it. In a money oriented society the difference between a design that will be built and serve society and a “paper decoration” will come down to whether the project makes money or achieves a required goal at the least cost. This class shows us how we can measure and quantify whether a project investment achieves that goal of being economically attractive. Fortunately, many of the basic principles of Engineering Economics are concepts that we have understood since we were small children. Most problems in Engineering Economics are done in the same way using the same principles. Once those principles and patterns are grasped the rest of the topic becomes details. The two most important questions that we have to answer about money are (1)- How much do I get? And (2)- When do I get it? One scarcely has to explain why we care how much money we get. We all understand that when it comes to money we want to get as much of it as possible. When do I get it? Might take a little more thought – although a lot of us can remember being little kids wanting a piece of candy and the only thing we really understood was that we wanted it “right now”. Consider yourself wanting to take a spring break vacation with your friends, but then Teacher A offers your $3,000 to do student work for them over spring break. All of a sudden you start to think that maybe that spring break vacation is not as important as you thought (if $3,000 doesn’t “do the trick” for you – there is probably an amount that will – most of us do have our price). A few minutes later Teacher B offers you $3,000 to do student work for them over spring break. The difference is that Teacher A will pay you $3,000 at the end of spring break. Teacher B will pay you $3,000 when you graduate. Are both offers equally attractive to you? You probably are realizing that getting $3,000 right away has a “lot more pull on you” than $3,000 at some time in the distant future. You are realizing that the value that the money has to you is not just how much you get, but how soon you get it. That is why in Engineering Economics we want to know (1)- How Much Do I Get? And (2)- When Do I Get It? The Cash Flow This leads us to the first step that we perform in doing Engineering Economics problems – that being to create a “Cash Flow”. Most real world investment or design programs begin as a story. I do such and such which costs me X amount of money. My project then does wonderful things that “pay off” and I make Y amount of money over the time my project is it service. The first thing we do to solve and Engineering Economics problem is to take that story and write down a list of how much money we make or spend and when we make it or spend it. This list is called a “Cash Flow”. Let us illustrate the idea of making a cash flow with an example. The City of Carbondale decides that rather than raise taxes to pay for needed upgrades and maintenance on its water system that it is better “privatize” the water system and sell it to private investors. Enter Soak it To You Inc. – a company that invests in and operates municipal water systems. Soak it to You Inc. pays Carbondale $8,000,000 to buy the municipal water system. Carbondale sold the system because it was in need of some very costly maintenance so during the first year of ownership Soak it to You Inc. spends $18,000,000 more than they make. During the second year they still spend $6,000,000 more than they make. Finally, Soak it to You Inc. has the water system “back in shape”. At this point they begin making more money than they spend - $4,000,000 every year. This money making story continues for 10 years. At this point Carbondale has an election for a new Mayor. Sammy Socialist runs for Mayor promising to buy back the water system. Sammy points out that Soak it to You Inc. is “ripping the citizens off” and charging them far more for water than it costs to provide the water and maintain the system. A community owned water system provides services to its citizens first rather than thinks about dipping into its customers pockets in order to give money to its share holders (investors). Sammy is elected Mayor and forces Soak it to You Inc. to sell back the water system for $21,000,000. Suppose we would like to know whether buying Carbondale’s water system was a good investment for Soak it to You Inc. Like most real world situations the Carbondale water system investment begins with a story. Our first step in solving the economics problem is to create the “Cash Flow”. We need to look at the story problem and pick out how much money moves and when the money moved. The first money moving event was that initial instant in time when Soak it to You wrote out a check to Carbondale for $8,000,000 to buy the water system. This is the first point at which money moves. It is called “time 0” and represents that instant in time when our “business deal” was started. Time Money 0 -$8,000,000 ($8,000,000 dollars moved out of Soak it to You’s bank account) Reading on in our story we find the next movement of money was that during the first year Soak it to You put another $18,000,000 dollars into fixing up and improving the water system. Time 0 1 Money -$8,000,000 -$18,000,000 We note an approximation that we made when we listed the next amount of money to move. Soak it to You Inc. in fact spent $18,000,000 over a period of one year. They did not just wait till December 31rst and then spend $18,000,000 on one day. Most of the time when we are planning or evaluating an investment or project that goes for 40 years we are not going to decide what hour of what day the secretary is going to buy paper clips. We can estimate approximately how much will be spent or earned and approximately when, but we usually don’t know, or wouldn’t spend the time and effort to get quite that detailed. When we build cash flows we frequently take money that will spent over a period of time and put all that money at one listed time in the cash flow that is “close enough”. In this case this means that while time 0 is a single instant in time when a check is written, time 1 is the accumulation of expenses over a period of one year. (I could have made the cash flow out every day or every week or every month, or as I did every year depending on how much detail is really important to the problem). Reading on in the story we find that in year 2 Soak it to you spends $6,000,000 and then in years 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 they earn $4,000,000. Time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Money -$8,000,000 -$18,000,000 -$6,000,000 $4,000,000 (Note now the money is adding to Soak it to You’s bank account). $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 Our story concludes when Sammy Socialist buy’s back the water system for $21,000,000 the next year. Time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Money -$8,000,000 -$18,000,000 -$6,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $21,000,000 We have just taken a story of an investment or project and turned it into a “Cash Flow”. I can also represent a cash flow graphically. $21,000,000 $4,000,000 per year 0 1 2 3 …………………………………………………….12 $8,000,000 13 $6,000,000 $18,000,000 Figure 1-1 Graphical Representation of a Cash flow Both the money list and the money graphic are valid ways of representing a cash flow. A great many engineering students are “visual learners” and the graphical cash flow may be more meaningful to people with that type of “learning style”. Note that a cash flow directly answers the two most important questions in Engineering Economics (1)How Much Do I Get? And (2) – When Do I Get It? Tips to Getting a Good Cash Flow The cash flow is the basic starting information you will use to solve an Engineering Economics problem. Obviously if the cash flow does not represent the problem you are really trying to solve you will likely get a wrong answer. With costly engineering projects a wrong answer can represent millions of dollars or worse. Watch for the following in getting a good cash flow – (1)- Make sure you do not confuse your pluses and minuses Whether a number in a cash flow is a positive or a negative number can greatly change the answer. Use this rule – money coming into my pocket is a positive event – money going out of my pocket is a negative event. Most of us already think of getting money as positive and having it disappear as negative. When you get money coming in – give it a positive sign. When you have to give up money and put it into the project or investment – give it a negative sign. (2)- Pick the viewpoint of your investor and stay with it Most engineering projects have lots of people working with them. Some may be contractors or suppliers, perhaps a project management company. All these people are trading money around. What may be money going out of one person’s pocket is money coming into another person’s pocket. To avoid getting numbers with the wrong sign or numbers that don’t even pertain to the problem take the view point of the investor who is “putting up” the money for the project. Track what happens to your investor’s wallet (or purse). When your investor takes money out of his/her pocket and puts it into the project record it with a negative sign. If someone other than the investor takes money out of their pocket and gives it to someone else – don’t record it as all – it is not an investment your investor made. If the project causes money to flow back into your investor’s pocket record the money with a positive sign. If someone other than your investor gets money put into their pocket don’t record it at all – it is not something your investor is getting as a result of the project. The Problem of Equivalence Having developed the Cash Flow for the problem or situation to be evaluated we now have the answers to the two most important questions (1)- How Much Do I Get? and (2)-When Do I Get It? we are now in a position to use the information. When we want to know "How Much Did I Get"? our method of choice is usually to count up or add up the total. Here the issue of "Equivalence" enters into the problem. Consider the Example of Pedro Plush and Freddy Flush. Pedro has 23 Pesos and 2 dollars. If we try to add up Pedro's money we might conclude that Pedro has 25 monies (we probably already sense something is going very wrong). Next Freddy Flush presents the contents of his pocket - 2 Pesos and 23 dollars. Freddy also has 25 monies. Both Pedro and Freddy must have equal amounts of money (Ok - none of us believe that). The problem that we have encountered is that you can only add up units of the same value. Where the units to be added have different value we must first convert the units to a common base. In the case of our Pesos and Dollars this is accomplished by multiplying either the Dollars or the Pesos by an "Exchange Rate" so that either the value of our Dollars are expressed in Pesos or the values of our Pesos are expressed in Dollars. Only then can we add to get a meaningful measure of how much wealth either Pedro or Freddy poses. The principle then - Units of Different Value can be added only after they are converted to a common basis. Now let us return to the story of Soak it To You Inc - the company that bought the water system from the City of Carbondale. We would like to know whether Soak it To You got a favorable deal by buying the Carbondale water system. We remember our long held almost instinctive definition - in a good deal you get more out of the project or investment than you put into it. Pulling out our cash flow we begin to add. Soak it to you put the following investments into the water system $8,000,000 to buy it $16,000,000 in improvements in year 1 $6,000,000 in improvements in year 2 Soak it To You Inc put $32,000,000 into the water system. Now lets see what they got out of the deal $4,000,000 per year for 10 years $21,000,000 to sell the system back to the city Soak it To You Inc got $61,000,000 out of the deal. Lets see $32,000,000 in and $61,000,000 out sounds pretty good - or does it? Our minds go back to the story of Pedro Plush and Freddy Flush who both had 25 monies. Then we remember that first principle Units of Different Value can be added only after they are converted to a common basis. No - it can't be! - after all these were all dollar bills. Then we remember the story of the $3,000 to work over spring break. It made a difference to us when we got the money - $3,000 right now had a lot more buying power with us than $3,000 that we would never see for 5 years! Yipes! could it be that we just added units of unequal value again! Yes - in as real a way as blindly adding Pesos and Dollars to get monies adding money from different points in time is adding units of unequal value. A dollar is equal to a dollar only if I hold both in my "hot little hands" at the same time. The two most important questions in Engineering Economics are "How Much Do I Get" and "When Do I Get It". The answers to both questions are needed to establish "equivalence" and let us add up a total. As with the Pesos and the Dollars there are conversion factors. By multiplying dollars at different points in time to convert them to a common time we can get our cash flow on a basis where we can add things up. As an incidental - when this is done to the cash flow for Soak it To You Inc buying the Carbondale water system it turns out (at a 15% rate or return) that Soak it To You Inc put in $28,189,000 and only got out $18,593,000. It was not a good deal and just like adding the Pesos and Dollars without converting to equivalent value first led to a wrong conclusion about the relative wealth of Pedro and Freddy, so to blindly adding dollars at different points in time can be expected to lead to wrong conclusions. The Rate of Return - The Basic Tool for Equivalence So where and how do we get these conversion factors that make money from different points in time equal in value so we can add it up? The Time Value of Money Let us begin with thinking of another situation - Do you, or one of your friends work while you go to College? You probably know someone who is doing it if you are not already doing it yourself. So why do you do it? Answers like - "I enjoy having no social life" or "I like having to wait till the last minute to do my homework, term paper, or study for a test and then having to pull an all nighter just to get a C" or "There is nothing in life that brings me more joy than cleaning garbage cans and tables" probably are suspect answers. I would venture to guess that most working College students are willing to put off gratification and make sacrifices in order to get paid. Taking a lesson from life - one of the most successful ways of getting people to put off gratification is to pay them for the sacrifice. If I wait 5 years to get $3,000 for work I perform I'm actually going to consider part of that as pay for waiting 5 years. The reason $3,000 now is worth more than $3,000 in 5 years is because if I put off my gratification money for 5 years somebody better be paying me for the sacrifice. $3,000 in 5 years is not all money for work I perform during spring break. Part of the money is for waiting the 5 years. Thus, I do not get $3,000 just for working through spring break if I have to wait 5 years. Now all I need is the ratio for how much of the money I get in 5 years is pay for waiting. How are Rates of Return Determined? Since I get paid for waiting for my money does that mean I can name my price? We all have a nasty feeling we know the answer to that one. Suppose I go to McDonalds and offer to work as a food service worker. I want $50 per hour, nights, weekends, and holidays off, 40 hours a week, and my shifts in 8 hour blocks. Do you think I will get the job? Of course most of you are speculating that the answer is no because my rate and terms are not competitive with what they could get someone else to do the job for. Not surprisingly, the rate that people are paid for waiting for their money is also set by the market. The market pays people for delays in getting money as a percentage of the money they are waiting for. By U.S. and international standard this is expressed as a percentage per year. If, for example, the percentage is 5%, then I will get paid $5 for waiting a year to get $100. ($5 is 5% of $100 dollars). The percentage rate I am paid for "renting" or waiting for my money is called "the Rate of Return". The market uses several things in determining the "Rate of Return" on money. We can get an image of what these things are and why they are considered from another story. It turns out that I am rather fond of Dairy Queen "Blizzards". Suppose I can buy a Dairy Queen "Blizzard" for $3. Student A asks to borrow $30 from me for 5 years. I realize that this is equal to the gratification from 10 Dairy Queen "Blizzards", but being such a nice person I agree. Being such an honest person Student A returns in 5 years and pays me my $30. After suffering "Blizzard Depravation" for so long I rush down to Dairy Queen to buy a round of "Blizzards" but much to my frustration the price of "Blizzards" is now $3.50 each . I got my money back but it no longer has the power to buy me 10 Dairy Queen "Blizzards". I am going to be in a bad mood over the situation the rest of the day! The problem I have identified is a common one - in general the buying power of a unit of money declines with time (think of your own experience buying gas for your car). This is called "Inflation". What must be done to bring me out of my "Blizzard" loss bad mood? Well having people pay me back enough to keep up with inflation would be a nice start - get me $35 at the end of 5 years so I can still buy 10 Dairy Queen "Blizzards". This is one of the things the market considers in determining a rate of return. The market considers how fast money is loosing value due to inflation and demands a rate of return high enough to keep pace with inflation. Well, hearing the story of my lending "Blizzard" money to students my entire class of 100 students decides one semester they would all like to borrow $35 each for 5 years. Being fresh back from my "Blizzard" loss experience due to inflation I tell them all I will need $40 back in 5 years to cover inflation. The students all agree. There is just one little problem - what are the chances that all 100 students will remember their promise and come back faithfully in 5 years and pay me back $40. Ok - I know you are honest - but what about that Bozo sitting next to you? There is a reason for that old Chinese proverb about "a bird in hand is worth two in the bush". Even good judges of projects and investments are wrong part of the time. If I want to make sure I get enough money back to pay for 1000 blizzards, just keeping up with inflation is not going to solve my problem - I need to collect enough extra to account for the reality that some percentage of my lovely students are going to "stiff" me. If I had enough statistics to look at (like the market has everything to look at) I could estimate what size "risk premium" I need to make up for the inevitable failure of some students to return and keep their promise. Government projects that are backed by the Government's power to "take it out of the hide" of its citizens with taxes often have low risk premiums around 1 to 4%. Manufacturing which may have fewer guarantees often has about a 6 to 9% risk premium. Mining where Mother Nature can do all sorts of things to a well planned project may have a 12% to 15% risk premium. One looks at the risk premium that similar projects have to determine the risk premium for a new project or investment being considered. As the saga of the Diary Queen Blizzard continues I lend 100 people $35 dollars with an agreement that they will pay me back $50 in 5 years. The arrangement allows for the price of my Diary Queen Blizzard to go to $4 each and for 20% of my students to fail to pay me back, however, I still have to wait 5 years for my Blizzard bonanza. We remember the question about "why do you work while you go through college" and the answer - because someone pays me to sacrifice having control of my own time now by providing me money for things I need. The fact that I have now lent money with protection against inflation and the possibility that some people will fail to pay me back still does not cover the fact that I have put off 1000 Diary Queen Blizzards for 5 years. Why would I do that if I was not being paid for putting off my gratification? This brings up the 3rd factor in getting a rate of return - you get people to put off gratification and rent you their money by paying them to do so. It turns out that the market rate for just waiting to get your money has been about the same from the time someone first learned to spell Capitalism to the present day. It is about 1 to 2% per year. The market calls this the "Safe Rate of Return". It is a rate that is paid just for waiting for your money since the issues of inflation and risk have been dealt with elsewhere. Most of us have seen or even been involved personally in the 4th thing that is used to determine a rate of return. Two gas stations across the street from one another. One gas station lowers it price a few cents. What does the other gas station do? Target advertises a good deal on something? What does Walmart do? General Motors does advertising for how cool and desirable their cars are. What does Toyota do? Have you ever been involved in trying to do something to your resume that will make it stand out or be different from everyone elses? Have you ever spent extra time or money picking out cloths that will make you stand out? Of course we all know that everyone spends a little something to try to compete. When it comes to the market picking rates of return that little bit is about 0.1% extra that does something to compete. Great - now we know what the market considers in determining a rate of return for an investment or project - what do I do with these things to get the rate of return the market really will pay for the use of an investors money? Of course our first impulse when we have 4 components of an interest rate is to add them all up. That would be wrong. The problem is each of the factors effects not only the original money but every other factor. If someone fails to come back to pay me for the "Blizzard Money" I lent them 5 years ago are they just going to forget to pay me back the $35 they borrowed or will they also forget to pay me the extra $5 for inflation, my "risk premium", may premium for just waiting for my money, and my competition premium? I bet they will forget to pay me back everything! Will only the original $35 I lent out be subject to inflation or will my risk premium and safe rate of return money for waiting also be effected by inflation? If the price of something goes up - can I still get the old price by paying the cashier with money from an "inflation proof wallet"? Ya - in my dreams maybe! Thus every factor in a rate of return effects not only the original money, but the money paid to satisfy every other factor. It turns out the way to get every premium in the rate of return to affect every other premium is to chain multiply. We would proceed as follows – Suppose the rate of inflation is 3% Suppose the safe rate of return (money just for waiting) is 1.5% Suppose the risk premium is 7% And suppose the “motivation premium” to “set us apart” is 0.1% Before moving on we have to “pick up” one more “trick of the trade”. When we talk or write about rates of returns or premiums we write or talk about percentages. When we pull out our calculator to do the math we treat the rate of return or the premium as a decimal fraction. Thus a 3% rate of inflation will be treated as 0.03 when doing mathematical calculations A 1.5% safe rate of return will be treated as 0.015 in doing math. A 7% risk premium will be treated as 0.07 in math Finally the 0.1% motivation premium becomes 0.001 when doing math. Now we set up the chain multiplication (1.03)*(1.015)*(1.07)*(1.001) = (1.rate of return) Most of us can see the 0.03 for inflation, the 0.015 for safe rate, the 0.07 for risk, and the 0.001 for motivation in the above equation. That leaves only the question of “Why did we add 1 to everything”? Lets suppose that I borrow $100 dollars from you and promise to pay you $10 of interest at the end of the week. Getting 10 dollars of interest for a one week loan probably sounds good to you. (If not – its bound to sound good to one of your class-mates). The end of the week comes and I come to you and give you a $10 bill of interest money and thank you for the loan before walking away. Are you happy? Is something wrong? After all I promised you $10 of interest and $10 of interest is exactly what you got. I suspect, however, that you are very unhappy about the fact that I never repaid you your $100. To make the deal work you need your original money back and interest. We know where the interest factors are in the above equation. Now we ask – what happens when you multiply any number by 1? You get the number back again – right? So what is that 1 doing in the above equation? That’s right – it guarantees that you get your original money back along with the interest. Now we have our Rate of Return. Calculation Tool Intermission One of the tools we have available for this class is a simple “spreadsheet” written in Microsoft Excel (part of the Microsoft Office suite). It is called “Class Assistant”. The spreadsheet is capable of performing most of the common calculations or number crunching operations needed in this class. The formulas being used can all be read in their respective cells so there is no issue with mysterious “black boxes” or prohibitions against “decompiling” software. One of the first functions in this spreadsheet is calculation of an interest rate Interest Rate Components Enter Values as Percentages but do not use the % key Enter on an Annual Rate Basis Safe Rate 1.5 (usually between 1 and 2) Inflation 3.5 Risk 9 Motivation 0.1 (usually about 0.1) Real Interest Rate Nominal Interest Rate in % in decimal 10.745635 0.107456 14.62173223 0.146217 Figure 1-2 The Interest Rate Component area of the Class Assistant spreadsheet This view is a good place to introduce a few “conventions” in Class Assistant. Yellow cells are cells where you input your values. Red cells with bold letters are where you find “answers”. These cells are also places where you find formulas. Class Assistant does not have protected or hidden cells. The result is that nothing (other than your desire to get right answers) stops you from changing formulas. Since you can change the answers Class Assistant gives you obviously want to “keep your editing fingers off the red cells” unless you know exactly what you are doing. Bold headings give a summary about the portion of the spreadsheet below does – in this case compute and interest rate from its component factors. Blue wording gives you information about what format to use for entering your information in the yellow cells. Black lettering identifies what a particular cell is. If we look at the yellow cells we see the four components of an interest rate that we have just discussed. You simply enter the interest rate components as a percentage. Some of the cells even have tips to the sides on what usual values would be. Looking at the red cells we see the interest rate given. One column gives the interest rate as a percentage (the format of choice for oral and written reporting) and in decimal form (the format of choice for plugging into a calculation). There is nothing magic about the red cells. A look at the formulas will show they are doing exactly what was explained above. So why use the spreadsheet? It can crunch numbers faster and diminish your ability to get wrong answers from typing formulas into your calculator incorrectly. The Mystery of the Real and Nominal Interest Rate We noted in looking at our Class Assistant spreadsheet that the sheet reports both something called a “nominal” and something called a “real” interest rate. Depending on how snoopy you got with the spreadsheet you may already know that the “nominal” interest rate corresponds to the formula we already discussed and that when the spreadsheet computes the “real” interest rate it leaves out the inflation component. We measure two kinds of interest rates – real and nominal. A nominal interest rate considers only how many dollars one is dealing with, ignoring entirely the question of what they will buy. Because of inflation what a dollar will buy today is very different than what it could have bought in the past. Some you may have seen nostalgic advertisements for 5 cent fast food hamburgers. What does a fast food hamburger cost today? In the 1960s the U.S. minimum wage was about $1.25 per hour. What is it today? Does that mean that a person working for minimum wage today can buy more than a person working for minimum wage in the 1960’s? If you know your inflation history or have just talked to enough people struggling to “get by” or maybe been one of those people yourself, you know that the bigger paycheck of today does not imply more buying power. A nominal interest rate deals with how many dollars are there. It is indifferent to whether those dollars buy much. By contrast a real interest rate deals with “constant” dollars. A dollar that continues to buy the same amount. A 1960’s constant dollar could buy 4 gallons of gasoline. This “constant” or “real” dollar buys 4 gallons of gas today. Now admittedly, none of us have ever seen a “constant” dollar or a “real” dollar, at least not the kind of “real” dollar that buys 4 gallons of gasoline, but our theory people tell us such a dollar exists – at least in our imagination or on paper. At first talking about “constant” or “real” dollars seems up-surd because they don’t exist – or do they? Think about what you do as an engineer building a “cash flow” for a project. Suppose you know that you will need a bulldozer for your project and that it will cost you $100,000 to buy. What number do you put in your cash flow for the bulldozer? Oh yes -$100,000 (minus because it is money moving out of your pocket in order to buy the bulldozer). Suppose you know this bulldozer wears out in 7 years and will need to be replaced. Now what number do you put down? If you are like most engineers spending your time making wild guesses about the inflation rate at bulldozer factories is not what you do. There is a good chance you just put down -$100,000. As you build you project cash flow you are pricing everything in dollars of today’s value. This can even be a great check on numbers because if things are priced out in dollars that “make sense” in today’s price environment people are much more likely to detect errors than if all the numbers look foreign to today’s price perspective. Thus, one of the places that “real dollars” are found is in project planning cash flows. Now the problem – what happens if I use a “nominal” discount rate on a “real” cash flow? Obviously since the discount rate was assuming the amount of money moving around should be increasing when in fact it is not (the cash flow was written down in non-inflating terms) will cause predictions of the amount of money being spent or earned to be wrong. This is a hidden but major problem for businesses. The cost estimators and engineers produce “real” cash flows and the accounting department says to evaluate it with a “nominal” interest rate and everyone gets the wrong project value or cost. It is a common way businesses get things wrong and it is a dumb mistake that people go out of the way to hide. Don’t let this happen to you! Use a “real” non-inflating discount rate to analyze a “real” cash flow. Use a “nominal” interest rate on a nominal cash flow. Never mix and match! How do I convert Nominal to Real and vis-versa? If you know from the start whether you are trying to get a real or a nominal interest rate and you are working with the four components of an interest rate it is easy. Take “safe rate”, “risk premium” and “motivation premium” and chain multiply to get a real interest rate. If you want a nominal interest rate chain multiply all 4 components of an interest rate. This is easy enough and as was shown above Class Assistant automatically calculates both real and nominal rates. The trick of course is that you have to know which one to use on your cash flow – ie you need to know whether the cash flow has built in an assumption of inflation. The more common problem is that the engineers and cost estimators produce a real cash flow and then go to the accounting department to ask what interest rate to use. The accounting department answers this question by looking at markets (where people are constantly “pricing in” an expectation that money is losing buying power due to inflation). Accounting then delivers a “nominal” interest rate and disaster is set up unless you know to ask the second question. The second question is “What inflation rate did you estimate”? Given that you multiplied the inflation rate by the other three components to get a “nominal” or inflating interest rate, how do you think you would take the inflation out? Of course – you divide. The calculation would look like this. Suppose you have a 10% nominal interest rate and a 3% inflation rate. ((1.1)/(1.03)-1)*100 = 6.8% real interest rate. I now have the interest rate to use on a real cash flow. Although not nearly as common a situation one might have a “real” interest rate and then recognize by systematically rising prices and costs in a cash flow that the cash flow is nominal. In this case you ask “what inflation rate was assumed in the cash flow”. To adjust for this you just multiply the inflation rate into your real interest rate. Suppose that you have a 6.8% real interest rate and you come upon a cash flow that included 3% inflation. I can get a nominal interest rate thus ((1.068)(1.03)-1)*100 = 10% nominal interest rate. Calculation Tool Intermission Class Assistant has a spreadsheet area designed for converting interest rates between real and nominal. Adjust Between Real and Nominal Rates Enter Interest Rate in Percent but do not use the % key during data entry Enter on an Annual Rate Basis Real Interest Rate Nominal Interest Rate Rate of Inflation 7 11 3.5 (in %) 10.745 Corresponding nominal int rate 7.2463768 Corresponding real interest rate Figure 1-3 Adjust Between Real and Nominal Interest Rate area of Class Assistant spreadsheet The key number is the inflation rate put in the bottom yellow cell in units of percent but without writing the percent symbol. Above you may place a Real interest rate. If you look at the bold number in the red box right across from it you see the nominal interest rate where inflation has been multiplied into the real interest rate. Below this you can put a nominal interest rate and the bold number in the adjacent red box is the real interest rate with the inflation rate taken out of it. A look at the formulas in the red cells will show that the spreadsheet is doing exactly the same calculation that was explained above. Using the Rate of Return in Money Calculations At this point we know how to get a rate of return – but we do not know how to use that rate of return to convert money at one point in time to an equivalent amount of money at another point in time. Lets consider a simple case. We know that to have the equivalent of $500 today you would need more than that in the future. The rate of return tells us how much more money it would take. Rates of return are measured as an annual percentage – for example 5% would mean $5 of interest on each $100 each year. Suppose you put $100 in a bank at 5% interest. In one year you would have $100, plus $5 of interest or $105. Now lets suppose you leave the money in the bank for another year. This time you have $105 in the bank on which to get 5% interest. Setting this up mathematically and remembering that money in percentages get converted to decimal form before doing math we find $105 * (1.05) = $110.25 We now note an interesting feature – as time goes on we end up paying interest on interest (5% of our original $100 is just $5, but we got $5.25 this time because we got interest on last periods interest money). We say our interest is “compounding” (ie. Collecting interest on interest). We let our story go on. What if the money is left in the bank another year? $110.25 * (1.05) = $115.76 What about another year? $115.76*(1.05) = $121.55 What if the story goes on for 35 years? Oh wait a minute here! – multiplying numbers by 1.05 is not hard when you have a calculator, but at some point it gets boring and tedious and asking for 35 years of compounding interest gets us to boring and tedious. There must be a better way. There must be a god because fortunately there is a better way. Notice what we did to get our 4 year accumulation of compounding interest $100 * (1.05)*(1.05)*(1.05)*(1.05) = $121.55 We could also write this out another way. $100 * (1.05)4 = $121.55 Could the pattern really be that easy? (1+i)n where i is the interest rate expressed in decimal form and n is the number of times the interest compounds? The answer is yes! Asking for a proof? – Go read another book – we don’t do proofs here. Well this sets us up to get that 35 year interest compounding answer real quick. (1.05)35 = 5.516 $100 * 5.516 = $551.60 One of the things we can note is that we just used an interest based conversion factor to take money right now and convert it to an equivalent amount of money in 35 years. The conversion factor we just used has a special name and symbol - F/Pi,n. If we multiply an amount of money we have right now by the appropriate value of F/P it will be converted to an equivalent amount of money that may not be available for many years. F/P is a function of two parameters. What is the interest rate i, and how many times will that interest compound n. The idea that we can convert money at one point in time to an equivalent amount of money at another point in time has been realized. Magic Numbers and Moving Money to Equivalent Amounts Meeting F/P The idea of having a conversion factor that puts money of different values to a common basis is common with currencies of different countries but when those conversion factors account for differences in value depending on when you get the money its kind of magic. In this text “magic numbers” refers to what many call “discount factors” that convert money at one point in time to an equivalent amount of money at another time. We have just met the first of those “magic numbers” – F/P. F/P has the ability to move money from the present time to an equivalent and greater amount of money in the future. We might say F/P has the slogan – “My name if F over P! Cash moves to the future with me!” F/P has a formula (1+i)n. Calculation Tool Intermission Class Assistant can be used to compute the value of F/P. The spreadsheet has many different areas on the same sheet that do different calculations. Class Assistant Spreadsheet The class assistant is a series of simple formulas and calculations that tend to be useful on homeworks and tests The color coding of the cells indicates where input is be be received from you and answers provided Yellow cells require you to enter input Green cells are just calculations - they are part of the spreadsheet design and should not be changed Red cells are the answer outputs. The cells usually contain formulas that are part of the spreadsheet design and should not be changed Interest Rate Components Adjust Between Real and Nominal Rates Enter Values as Percentages but do not use the % key Enter on an Annual Rate Basis Safe Rate 1.5 (usually between 1 and 2) Inflation 3.5 Risk 9 Motivation 0.1 (usually about 0.1) Enter Interest Rate in Percent but do not use the % key during data entry Enter on an Annual Rate Basis Real Interest Rate Nominal Interest Rate Real Interest Rate Nominal Interest Rate Rate of Inflation 7 11 3.5 (in %) 10.745 Corresponding nominal int rate 7.2463768 Corresponding real interest rate in % in decimal 10.745635 0.107456 14.62173223 0.146217 Period Interest Rate Adjustment Enter Annual Interest Rate as a Percentage Do not use the % key during entry Annual Int Rate 15 12 Enter number of compounding periods/year (Would be 12 for months 365 for daily) in % in decimal Period Int Rate 1.25 0.0125 Period Interest Rate to an Annual Interest Rate Enter Your Period Interest Rate as a Percentage Do not use the % key during entry Period Interest Rate 1.25 12 Enter number of compounding periods/year Annual Interest Rate 15 Effective Interest Rate 16.07545 Magic # Calculator Note - It is recommended that you go to the Magic # Calculator Tab for advice on how to use this feature Enter Annual Interest Rate in % Do not use the % key during data entry Annual Int Rate 12 1 Enter the number of compounding periods/year in % in decimal Period Int Rate 12 0.12 (Please note - you must enter the number of compounding periods that money Enter # Compouning Periods to Move Cash (value of n) 33 is to be moved either forward or back for the F/P and P/F numbers to work) The value should be an interger (The value you enter here affects F/P and P/F but not P/A, A/P, F/A, A/F) F/P 42.09153347 (used to move one cash flow element n compounging period into the future) P/F 0.023757747 (used to move one cash flow element n compounging periods back) Enter # of payments (or repeating earnings) in the annuity The value should be an interger 32 (Please note - You must enter the number of payments to use the P/A A/P, F/A, or A/F values below. This value has no effect on P/F or F/P above) P/A 8.111594362 (used to convert an annuity to a single sum of money one compounding period before first payment) A/P 0.123280326 (used to convert a single sum of money into a series of n payments starting one compounding period in the future) Figure 1-4 General Overview of Class Assistant spreadsheet showing different calculation areas We have already met the Interest Rate Components area and the Adjust Between Real and Nominal Rates area. To calculate “Magic Numbers” or discount factors such as F/P we go to the Magic # Calculator area. Magic # Calculator Note - It is recommended that you go to the Magic # Calculator Tab for advice o Enter Annual Interest Rate in % Do not use the % key during data entry Annual Int Rate 12 1 Enter the number of compounding periods/year in % in decimal Period Int Rate 12 0.12 Enter # Compouning Periods to Move Cash (value of n) 33 The value should be an interger F/P 42.09153347 (used to move one cash flow element n compounging period into the future) Figure 1-5 The F/P calculation area in Class Assistant The key areas of the spreadsheet for getting F/P are first off the yellow cell where one puts the annual interest rate. The example above contains the number 12. Note that although you are told to put numbers in as percent units you are not to enter the % symbol in the yellow box. The yellow box just below asking for the number of compounding periods in a year is 1 for right now. The next key number is the number of times that interest is allowed to compound – the value of n. In the example above the number 33 has been entered. The resulting value of F/P is found in bold in the red box below beside the entry that says F/P. If one takes a present amount of money and multiplies it by 42.0915, the result will be converting that money to an equivalent sum in 33 years after growing at an interest rate of 12% per year. Using Unit Cancelation to Pick the Correct Magic Number Of course moving money from the present time to a future time is not always the way we want to move money before counting. There are 6 basic “magic numbers” like F/P that we can use to move money at one point in time to another. This of course leads to the question of how do I know which one to use? Here the unit cancelation trick used often in engineering comes into play. Just like a common number in the numerator can “cancel” the same number in the denominator, so to a unit in the numerator can cancel the same unit in the denominator. See how it works with magic numbers. 𝐹𝑢𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒 * 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡 Present Present cancels Present leaving us with future. F/P cancels present and leaves us with future. It will have the effect of starting with money in the present and converting it to money in the future. Watching for unit cancelation will help us to use the correct magic number in the future when we have more than one available. For right now we only know F/P. FE Exam Intermission As part of the path to becoming a Licensed Professional Engineer, engineering students within a year of graduation from an accredited Engineering School have the chance to take the Fundamentals of Engineering Exam, which as its name implies tests whether students have mastered the basic skills and knowledge to become a Professional Engineer. About 8 to 10% of that test covers the subject of engineering economics. As a result – this text will often stop right in the middle of a concept to explore ways in which historical and similar questions on the FE exam may test your mastery of a concept. On the subject of Engineering Economics, one of the most often tested concepts is whether you understand equivalence – the idea that a certain amount of money at one time is equivalent to a different amount of money at some other time. Many problems that test this concept have the form A*B=C, where A is an amount of money found in a story problem, B is one of the magic numbers, and C is the correct answer to the question. An example question – “If $500 is put in a bank for 10 years at 4% interest, how much money most nearly will be in the bank account at the end of 10 years?” Looking for the pattern - $500 is the amount of money A The money grows for 10 years at 4% interest (should suggest a magic number) What amount of money will there be in the future C, the answer. What magic number takes money in the present and moves it to the future? 𝐹𝑢𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒 * 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡 Present = Future We want F/P. The interest rate i is 4% and the number of compounding periods n is 10. Plugging into the formula (1+0.04)10 = 1.4802 Setting up our A ($500) * B (1.4802) = C ($740.12) The FE exam which is a four answer multiple choice will likely have $740 as one of the answers. We pick it and are one step closer to passing our FE exam. Our goal is to get to 70% or better. The FE exam is a pass-fail exam. Lest one go into early phases of panic about whether you can ever be an engineer, the FE exam does not expect you to memorize an endless array of formulas. When you take the exam you are given a book of formulas. The engineering economics portion of the book includes the formula for F/P along with all the other magic numbers we will eventually learn. The exam book also includes something called an interest table. This is a quick look up table where we can find the value of F/P (or our other magic numbers) listed by interest rate and number of compounding periods. Lets examine how we can use such a table. Figure 1-6 A typical Compound Interest Table showing the interest rate for which the table was computed The first thing to look for is the interest rate for the table which is usually located in one or both of the top two corners of the table depending on who published the table. In the example above we see that the interest rate is ¾%. The table was derived by using the formula for each of the “magic numbers” using the value of at the top of the table for the interest rate and then calculating the resulting “magic numbers” for a wide array of numbers of compounding periods. The answers you get from an “interest table” will thus be the same as you would get using the formula, except that you do not take the time or potential for error that might result from exhaustively punching everything into a calculator. (The idea of using a programmable calculator for the FE exam won’t work since the FE exam specifies the types of calculators that can be used and programmables are on the “do not use list”. The second thing one looks for on the interest rate is which “magic number” you are looking up. At present we only know F/P. Look across the top of the table for the “correct” magic number. Figure 1-7 A typical Compound Interest Table showing where to find the column heading that identify which “Magic Number” or discount factor is being calculated. Next we look down the left side of the table at the value of n. Suppose for example that we wanted the value of F/P at 4% interest and 16 years. We first check in the top corners of the table to make sure we see 4%. For the view above we definitely see 4%. Then we look across the top of the table for the column that contains F/P. In the view above it is the first column. Figure 1-8 Reading down the side of a typical Compound Interest Table and then reading over to get the value of the desired “Magic Number” or discount factor. Line up with the value of n. (Remember – n is the number of compounding periods). Follow the pretty red arrow on the view above down to the number 16. I have 16 compounding periods. Now read over to the column containing the magic number you are interested in – in this case F/P. We note the value is 1.873. If I have $1000 today and I put it in an account that pays 4% interest and I leave it there for 16 years the amount of money will become $1000 * 1.873 = $1,873 This means that when you are doing your FE exam you can get the required “magic numbers” (discount factors) either by using a formula in your calculator or doing a table look-up. Most of the time a table look-up will tend to give you a slight time advantage, though individuals differ in the dexterity of their data entry fingers and the speed of the flipping fingers and eye-balls. One might ask “What about class assistant”. You are not allowed to use a pre-formula loaded spreadsheet although the FE exam is being moved from a paper test format to a computer based test. Interest Rates and Compounding Periods We have just met interest rates that compound once a year. Indeed it is a government and international standard that interest rates are reported for a one year period. If someone says “the interest rate is 4.5%” and does not say anything more one can reasonably conclude the interest rate is 4.5% annually (ok loan sharks and shady characters may not follow the law – but this book is not a shady character). But does the standard time period for interest reporting have to mean that one year is a mandatory standard compounding period? No. In fact a great many financial arrangements have a compounding period that is something other than a year – almost always a shorter compounding period. How do we deal with compounding periods shorter than one year? Step 1 – Get the period interest rate How often do interest rates compound in one year? Common answers for interest compounding are monthly and daily. There are 12 months in a year and 365 days in a year. Take the yearly interest rate (which should be reported since it is the legal standard) and divide it by the number of compounding periods in one year. Thus 4% interest compounded monthly has a “period interest rate” of 4%/12 = 0.3333% The same 4% interest rate with daily compounding has a “period interest rate” of 4%/365 = 0.01096% One could similarly deal with a semi-annual interest rate – semi-annual means twice a year 4%/2 = 2% A quarterly interest rate would give 4 quarters to a year so the period interest rate is 4%/4 = 1% Step #2 Get the number of compounding periods for the problem Just as interest rates are reported on an annual basis, the amount of time that money gathers interest is also often reported on an annual basis. It would be common to say “the money is in the bank for 5 years” or “the loan is for a period of 2.5 years”. Our first impulse would be to grab this number and use it for the value of n in the F/P formula, but n is the number of compounding periods. A 5 year loan with monthly compounding is 60 compounding periods. If the compounding period is daily a 5 year loan is 5*365 = 1825 compounding periods – or for our purists who dot every i and cross every t and know there has to be a leap year in there 1826. Impact and use of a shorter compounding period Lets see how we use a shorter compounding period and what the results are. We previously considered $100 left in the bank for 35 years at 5% (1.05)35 = 5.516 $100 * 5.516 = $551.60 Lets switch that off to monthly compounding. Step #1 – Get the period interest rate 5/12 = 0.4167% Step #2 – Get the number of compounding periods 35 years * 12 months per year = 420 compounding periods Plug into the F/P formula (1.004167)420 = 5.7337 (Did you notice that I took a 0.4167% interest rate and converted it to decimal form 0.004167 before doing any calculations?) Now apply F/P to our $100 dollars $100 * 5.7337 = $573.37 Did you notice what happened when I shortened the compounding period? $100 for 35 years at 5% interest became $551.60 with annual compounding, but when I shortened the compounding period to 1 month the amount became $573.37. What happened? The more often I add the interest to the account the more opportunity I have to get interest on interest. Gee that’s exciting! I wonder what happens when we go to daily compounding? Step #1 Get the period interest rate 5%/365 = 0.0137% Step #2 Get the number of compounding periods 35 years * 365 days per year = 12,775 Lets soup up our earnings just a little and throw in those leap years. Nine leap years are possible (every 4 years) so we will add 9 days. n= 12,784 Plug into the F/P formula (1.000137)12784= 5.7610 Apply F/P to our $100 100 * 5.7610 = $576.10 which is up from monthly compounding of $573.37, which is up from yearly compounding giving $551.60. Bankers Tricks and Yield Of course the reality of life is that bankers lend more money and earn more interest than the average Joe with a savings account. Most of us will spend more time paying loans off than we will collecting interest. With this in mind it is probably not surprising that bankers have within the law worked the rules to optimize their interest collection. You saw in the above example above that not all interest rates reported as 5% earn the same interest. You may have even thought it interesting that I used leap years in figuring the number of compounding periods, but not when I divided by the number of days in a year to get the period interest rate. One of the ways I can “soup-up” the interest collected at a given interest rate is to shorten the compounding period – thus enhancing the amount of interest I collect on interest and “amping-up” the “yield” I get at a given interest rate. In fact banks actually calculate and sometimes report both the interest rate and “yield” (effective interest rate). You may have noted that banks may post the interest rate on their certificates of deposit and then indicate a yield that shows an even higher interest rate. The yield is the effective rate of interest that results from using a compounding period shorter than 1 year and getting interest on interest during the year. Lets see how it works to calculate a yield. In this example I will use the bankers favorite for “milking” interest out of people – the credit card. An average credit card has an interest rate of about 14% - but what is the effective rate or yield if the bank follows the customary practice of daily compounding? Step #1 – Get the period interest rate 14%/365 = 0.0384% Daily Step #2 – Use the F/P formula to get the effective rate of interest (1+0.000384)365 = 1.1502 Step #3 – break out the interest (1.1502 -1)*100 = 15.02% So why is 15.02% the “Effective Annual Interest Rate”? We remember that to calculate the interest for one compounding period we just multiply the amount of money by the interest rate and the interest charged pops out the other end. We also remember that if you multiply an amount of money by F/P it will move the money to an equivalent amount at a future time period. So how much interest gets charged in one year if we have daily compounding. By law and international convention all interest rates must be reported as a plain annual rate. So how much interest do we get from $100 at a 14% interest rate. Using our standard formula of money times interest rate equals interest we would go $100 * 0.14 = $14 This would be the right amount if the interest compounded once per year, but what if it doesn’t? What if it is daily compounding? We know we can use F/P to move money forward in time. To move money one year at 14% interest with daily compounding we calculate $100* 1.1502 = $115.02 How much interest got added to the account in one year? $115.02 - $100 = $15.02 But that would be like multiplying by 15.02% interest $100 * 0.1502 = $15.02 We of course did not really have a 15.02% interest rate, but because we were getting interest on interest during the year due to daily compounding we effectively accumulated as much interest in one years time as if we had 15.02% plain annual interest. Thus we call it the yield or “effective annual interest rate”. As can be seen, by using daily compounding banks commonly get a full percentage point more effective interest than what they are legally required to disclose in their annual interest rate. As the interest rate on the credit card becomes higher, the premium the bank gets by going to daily interest becomes greater. This leaves one more question – if daily compounding is better than monthly and monthly is better than yearly for bank for banks trying to extract maximum interest from their victi - woops I mean customers then why not compound every second? There are in fact formulas that apply to continuous compounding. Lets note what happens to effective interest rate or yield as the compounding period shortens. Quarterly Compounding 14%/4 = 3.5% (1.035)4 = 1.1475 which implies 14.75% interest Monthly Compounding 14%/12 = 1.167% (1.01167)12 = 1.1493 which implies 14.93% interest Daily Compounding 15.02% As can be seen progressive shortening of the compounding period is producing an exponentially rising amount of work and an exponentially decreasing amount of earnings so bankers can’t gain much more revenue by compounding every second. Instead they come up with an even better “rule”. It is called “Average Daily Balance”. Transactions that come in at any point in the day are treated for interest purposes as if the money earned interest all day. Thus bankers do quite well with daily compounding and about the only place one really sees continuous compounding is in textbooks somewhere. (You won’t see it in this text book). Calculation Tool Intermission Class Assistant can be used for getting period and effective interest rates (Yield). Period Interest Rate Adjustment Enter Annual Interest Rate as a Percentage Do not use the % key during entry Annual Int Rate 15 12 Enter number of compounding periods/year (Would be 12 for months 365 for daily) in % in decimal Period Int Rate 1.25 0.0125 Period Interest Rate to an Annual Interest Rate Enter Your Period Interest Rate as a Percentage Do not use the % key during entry Period Interest Rate 1.25 12 Enter number of compounding periods/year Annual Interest Rate 15 Effective Interest Rate 16.07545 Figure 1-9 Portion of Class Assistant Used to Obtain the Yield or Effective Annual Interest Rate Period Interest Rate Adjustment Enter Annual Interest Rate as a Percentage Do not use the % key during entry Annual Int Rate 15 12 Enter number of compounding periods/year (Would be 12 for months 365 for daily) in % in decimal Period Int Rate 1.25 0.0125 Figure 1-10 Calculation of the Period Interest Rate with Class Assistant The period interest adjustment uses a yellow cell inputs the normal yearly interest rate and the number of compounding periods per year. Examination of the red cells below shows the expected calculation of annual interest rate divided by number of compounding periods in a year. Beside it is the period interest rate expressed as a decimal form. Obviously it contains the interest rate as a percent divided by 100. The effective interest rate can be obtained in the area right beside Period Interest Rate to an Annual Interest Rate Enter Your Period Interest Rate as a Percentage Do not use the % key during entry Period Interest Rate 1.25 12 Enter number of compounding periods/year Annual Interest Rate 15 Effective Interest Rate 16.07545 Figure 1-11 Calculation of the Yield or “Effective Annual Interest Rate” using Class Assistant Just take the annual interest rate and number of compounding periods per year and get the period interest rate in the Period Interest rate adjustment area. Then take that period interest rate and plug it in for the period interest rate in the yellow cells of the Period Interest Rate to Annual interest rate area. Enter the number of compounding periods per year and the red cells below will report both the official reported annual interest rate and the effective interest rate or yield. There is one more way to get a yield out of Class Assistant, but one has to know that effective annual interest rates are calculated using the P/F formula. Go to the Magic Number calculation area. Magic # Calculator Note - It is recommended that you go to the Magic # Calculator Tab for advice o Enter Annual Interest Rate in % Do not use the % key during data entry Annual Int Rate 14 365 Enter the number of compounding periods/year in % in decimal Period Int Rate 0.038356164 0.000384 (Please note - you must enter the nu Enter # Compouning Periods to Move Cash (value of n) 365 is to be moved either forward or back The value should be an interger (The value you enter here affects F/P F/P 1.150242923 (used to move one cash flow element n compounging period into the future) Figure 1-12 Using F/P in the Magic # Calculator to get Yields from Annual Interest Rates Enter the annual interest rate in the yellow cell labeled annual interest rate. Below enter the number of compounding periods in a year. The magic number calculator can introduce us to a new cell color – green. A green cell like a red cell contains a formula and a financial calculation. Like the red cells one should not change the formula unless one knows exactly what they are doing. Green cells contain numbers that come from the necessary steps to get to the actual answer located in a red cell in bold lettering. In this case the green cells contain the period interest rate, which we know is a necessary step in getting to the effective annual interest rate. To finish the effective interest rate calculation we enter the number of compounding periods a second time for the value of n and then look below at the value of F/P. Drop one from the F/P value, and multiply the rest by 100 and you have the effective annual interest rate. Most engineers can drop the one and read the interest rate in decimal form in their minds without ever doing a calculation. It will be noted the set-up in the view above is the calculation we just did above for a credit card with a 14% reported annual interest rate and daily compounding.
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