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© 2010 Dr. Juliet Pulliam and the Clinic on the Meaningful Modeling of Epidemiological Data
Title: Introduction to Model Assessment
Attribution: Dr. Juliet Pulliam, Clinic on the Meaningful Modeling of Epidemiological Data
Source URL: http://lalashan.mcmaster.ca/theobio/mmed/index.php/Introduction_to_model_assessment
For further information please contact Dr. Juliet Pulliam ([email protected]).
A brief (and informal)
Introduction to
model assessment
Dr. Juliet Pulliam
Clinic on the Meaningful Modeling of Biological Data
RAPIDD Program, DIEPS
and BSc Honours Course in Biomathematics
Fogarty International Center, NIH, USA and
African Institute for the Mathematical Sciences
Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology
Muizenberg, South Africa
University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA)
3 June 2010
Types of model assessment
Sensitivity (and elasticity) analysis
Uncertainty analysis
Model comparison
Model validation
Sensitivity analysis
To what extent does the answer depend on the
parameter values?
For more:
Bailey and Duppenthaler (1980) Sensitivity analysis in the modeling of disease dynamics.
Journal of Mathematical Biology 10: 113-131.
Elasticity analysis
To what extent does the reproduction number depend
on particular components of transmission?
For more:
Matser et al. (2009) Elasticity analysis in epidemiology: an application to tick-borne infections.
Ecology Letters 12(12): 1298-1305.
Uncertainty analysis
What range of answers are produced by plausible sets
of parameter values?
Model comparison
To what extent are the model form and complexity
supported by the available data, relative to other
models?
Validation
Can the model tell us anything about the world outside
our dataset?